Portland Loves Them Some LaMarcus Aldridge

[ABM]

From: The Sporting News Sporting Blog

I've been kicking it down in Portland, and learned that, as with every city that's had an NBA franchise in the past four years, the name Amare Stoudemire comes up a lot here. As promised, I'm not really going to bother with the specific trade rumors; let's just say that pretty much every one of them involves giving up LaMarcus Aldridge. And that's where some hyper-funny local media, homer craziness kicks in..............

......................Look, I get liking the mild-mannered guy who is maturing as one of the Blazers' own. And I know this team's personality is mad low-key. But Portland, I implore thee: Fire up the YouTube and watch Amare from last season. He was unstoppable offensively, efficient as heck, and able to do all that Aldridge does but scarier, faster, and more decisively. And while he's a terrible on-ball and team defender, he can come up with huge, momentum-altering blocks and rebounds when he remembers to.

It's one thing to question a player's character, or wonder how he'd affect a team's very distinct locker room vibe. However, when you start reading and hearing widespread insinuations that a somewhat disappointing, less-than-assertive 17/7 guy is better at basketball than a force of nature who, in slightly better circumstances, could put up 25/8 every night while finally making other teams fear one of the West's better young squads, that's the definition of homer blinders.

 

[Reep]

I'm not sure I get the point of this article.

First, to establish some basketball credibility for myself, I want to be on the record as stating that Amare wouldn't fit in Portland's offense. The team is half-court beyond half-court, they have no point guard to feed the beast (though Amare is a super-efficient scorer), or run the pick and roll with him. Brandon Roy is the league's most inconspicuous ballhog, and if you have Amare, you should want him to get his. Plus, Nate McMillian has a little bit of Larry Brown in him, making him the worst possible coach for STAT.

They seem to be saying:

[PARAPHRASE]Amare >> Aldridge, so they should trade for him; OTOH

Amare is a terrible fit, so [on the Blazer team] he is << Aldridge [/PARAPHRASE]

It sounds like they think the fans should want Amare, but the management shouldn't try and get him.

 

[andalusian]

Adjust them numbers for minutes played and pace and the difference between Amare and LMA are not as big as some people make them to be, add the fact that LMA is not allergic to defense, is cheaper and is a chemistry fit...

Looking at Pts/Rb/Ast/Blocks/Steals

This year, per 36 LMA is: 17.7/6.8/1.8/1.0/0.9
This year, per-36 Amare is: 20.2/7.9/1.9/1.0/1.0

Phx Pace: 96.7
Por Pace: 88.9

Amare's per-36 numbers adjusted for Portland's pace: 18.6/7.3/1.7/0.9/0.9

All of a sudden - the difference between Aldridge and Amare does not look so big...

Add the fact that Aldridge plays on a team with better rebounders than Phx (Portland is 2nd in the league in rebounding rate, PHX is 15) - and I bet you that Amare will not look any better rebounding the ball next to Oden/'Billa and the rest of the gang...

Amare is fool's gold...

 

[PapaG]

Adjust them numbers for minutes played and pace and the difference between Amare and LMA are not as big as some people make them to be, add the fact that LMA is not allergic to defense, is cheaper and is a chemistry fit...

Looking at Pts/Rb/Ast/Blocks/Steals

This year, per 36 LMA is: 17.7/6.8/1.8/1.0/0.9
This year, per-36 Amare is: 20.2/7.9/1.9/1.0/1.0

Phx Pace: 96.7
Por Pace: 88.9

Amare's per-36 numbers adjusted for Portland's pace: 18.6/7.3/1.7/0.9/0.9

All of a sudden - the difference between Aldridge and Amare does not look so big...

Add the fact that Aldridge plays on a team with better rebounders than Phx (Portland is 2nd in the league in rebounding rate, PHX is 15) - and I bet you that Amare will not look any better rebounding the ball next to Oden/'Billa and the rest of the gang...

Amare is fool's gold...

It seems the orginal author's biggest problem with Aldridge is that he doesn't know much about him and how he fits in the Blazer system. Excellent post - repped

 

[noknobs]

......................Look, I get liking the mild-mannered guy who is maturing as one of the Blazers' own. And I know this team's personality is mad low-key. But Portland, I implore thee: Fire up the YouTube and watch Amare from last season. He was unstoppable offensively, efficient as heck, and able to do all that Aldridge does but scarier, faster, and more decisively. And while he's a terrible on-ball and team defender, he can come up with huge, momentum-altering blocks and rebounds when he remembers to.

So basically we need to get highlights on SportsCenter at the expense of rebounding/defense (the things that win games). Fucking great idea. I knew there was a reason I've been avoiding this forum lately. Now I've already wasted more time than I promised myself I would on stupid stupid stupid stupid rumors. Ugh.

It's one thing to question a player's character, or wonder how he'd affect a team's very distinct locker room vibe. However, when you start reading and hearing widespread insinuations that a somewhat disappointing, less-than-assertive 17/7 guy is better at basketball than a force of nature who, in slightly better circumstances, could put up 25/8 every night while finally making other teams fear one of the West's better young squads, that's the definition of homer blinders.

Three things. One, the ridiculous rumor I've heard isn't a straight up Lamarcus for Amare, so any argument on who is the better overall player is pretty pointless. 2nd, I really do think Lamarcus is the better player for this team, so sorry if 'idiotic stat-obsessed journalist' doesn't approve. And third, the bolded text isn't how I would describe Aldridge - far from it. But I've actually watched him play, what would I know.

 

[Natebishop3]

Funny article. Obviously someone who hasn't watched LMA at all.

 

[blazerboy30]

It's one thing to question a player's character, or wonder how he'd affect a team's very distinct locker room vibe. However, when you start reading and hearing widespread insinuations that a somewhat disappointing, less-than-assertive 17/7 guy is better at basketball than a force of nature who, in slightly better circumstances, could put up 25/8 every night while finally making other teams fear one of the West's better young squads, that's the definition of homer blinders.

So the author compares LMA actual stats to Amare's hypothetical stats as a reason Amare is better? I could easily say that LMA would put up 25/8 in "slightly better circumstances", such as playing with Nash or being the primary scorer.

Lame article, lame argument.

 

[maxiep]

Wait, LMA is "somewhat disappointing"?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Wait, LMA is "somewhat disappointing"?

Some just have higher standards for a second overall pick. If Beasley put up 17/7 in his third year he'd be labled a borderline bust.

 

[e_blazer]

Apparently, this is why the dude was in town:

http://www.portlandmercury.com/events/Event?oid=1060800

Given that the Blazers are severely challenged defensively and that Aldridge is one of the few Blazers who actually does play decent defense, and given that Soudemire doesn't, and further given that the Blazers lack a Steve Nash to feed Stoudemire the ball, it seems to me that this guy's opinions make little to no sense.

 

[MARIS61]

Shoals entirely misses the whole story about what we're doing here, and why we can turn our noses up at Amares' "last season stats".

We're more interested in the next several seasons, and LaMarcus is improving while Amare has flatlined already, careerwise.

Shoals also points out Amare can't defend worth a lick, so there's not much else to talk about.

 

[maxiep]

Some just have higher standards for a second overall pick. If Beasley put up 17/7 in his third year he'd be labled a borderline bust.

And some don't just look to stats to define someone a "bust" or not. Go back and look at the 2006 draft. Reorder the players. We know who the first pick would be. Who would the second be? Bargnani? AmMo? Sheldon Williams?

LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the two or three best young PFs in the game.

 

[PapaG]

Some just have higher standards for a second overall pick. If Beasley put up 17/7 in his third year he'd be labled a borderline bust.

LOL

Hilarious. 17/7 doesn't tell the entire story.

 

[MARIS61]

Apparently, this is why the dude was in town:

http://www.portlandmercury.com/events/Event?oid=1060800

What a snooze.

Maybe he should ask the Decembrists to open for him?

 

[noknobs]

LOL

Hilarious. 17/7 doesn't tell the entire story.

Yes it does! Quit being a blind homer!

 

[Minstrel]

Some just have higher standards for a second overall pick. If Beasley put up 17/7 in his third year he'd be labled a borderline bust.

Stretch. If Beasley were putting up 17/7 in a slow-paced system with two of the top rebounders in the league, and played solid defense, he wouldn't remotely be labeled a bust. Some would find that disappointing, but he would still be viewed as a generally successful selection, especially with more upside remaining to him.

Aldridge hasn't reached the most optimistic evaluations of his talent (yet), but he's will within the range that a top-five selection should achieve.

 

[bobf]

http://82games.com/ilardi2.htm

I did a 3.5 year +/- linear regression and LA comes out >> Amare

 

[B-Roy]

http://82games.com/ilardi2.htm

I did a 3.5 year +/- linear regression and LA comes out >> Amare

Yeah, but that also shows Outlaw > Roy.

 

[Minstrel]

http://82games.com/ilardi2.htm

I did a 3.5 year +/- linear regression and LA comes out >> Amare

I'm not generally one to evaluate systems via "Does it agree exactly with what I already believed?" but the results are very odd. Kenyon Martin and Mike Dunleavy Jr. about as valuable as Chris Paul and Dwight Howard? It's a little hard to believe.

 

[KingSpeed]

Some just have higher standards for a second overall pick. If Beasley put up 17/7 in his third year he'd be labled a borderline bust.

17/7 is not a bust no matter what pick you are. Those are solid numbers especially in terms of his role on our team.

 

[STOMP]

The esteemed Dwight Jaynes

I even heard one reporter say on the excellent "Talkin' Ball" program...

Portland, I implore thee: Fire up the YouTube and watch Amare from last season.

the definition of homer blinders

STOMP

 

[bobf]

Yeah, but that also shows Outlaw > Roy.

Mine has Roy +2.2 Outlaw at -2.3 points per 100 possessions. The 82games.com ratings weighted heavily for the current season, which increases noise.

Here's the thing about +/-. It takes tons of data to begin separating one player from another - I mean like 3 or more seasons. Even then there is still enough noise that some players will be significantly underrated or overrated.

Here is my top 30 from 2005 to now.

PlayerName	Rating	Off	Def	StdError
Garnett, Kevin	+13.9	+4.9	-8.9	1.5
James, LeBron	+13.7	+11.4	-2.3	1.6
Bryant, Kobe	+12.6	+12.2	-0.4	1.7
Duncan, Tim	+11.7	+6.4	-5.3	1.8
Wade, Dwayne	+10.3	+10.1	-0.2	1.6
Nash, Steve	+9.5	+11.9	+2.4	1.7
Jamison, Antawn	+9.0	+7.6	-1.4	1.6
Ginobili, Manu	+8.0	+5.8	-2.2	1.4
Bosh, Chris	+7.9	+5.6	-2.3	1.5
Kidd, Jason	+7.7	+5.7	-2.0	1.5
Paul, Chris	+7.6	+5.8	-1.9	1.7
Nowitzki, Dirk	+7.5	+7.7	+0.2	1.6
Davis, Baron	+7.4	+5.7	-1.7	1.3
Artest, Ron	+7.3	+2.7	-4.6	1.3
Billups, Chaun	+7.3	+8.6	+1.3	1.7
Terry, Jason	+7.2	+6.3	-0.9	1.6
Ming, Yao	+6.5	+0.8	-5.7	1.7
Carter, Vince	+6.4	+5.9	-0.5	1.6
Aldridge, L	+6.3	+2.9	-3.4	1.8
Quinn, Chris	+6.3	+6.6	+0.4	2.3
Kirilenko, A	+6.1	+2.1	-4.0	1.6
Harris, Devin	+6.1	+3.8	-2.2	1.5
Ilgauskas, Zy	+6.0	+1.6	-4.3	1.7
Pierce, Paul	+5.7	+5.2	-0.5	1.5
Howard, Dwight	+5.7	+3.3	-2.4	1.7
Wallace, Ras	+5.6	+2.3	-3.3	1.8
Deng, Luol	+5.5	+2.3	-3.2	1.5
Miller, Brad	+5.4	+3.3	-2.0	1.5
McGrady, Tra	+4.8	+4.9	+0.1	1.6
Lewis, Rash	+4.7	+5.0	+0.4	1.3

*Negative defense is good defense.

In that list you can expect one or two players to be overrated by +3 or more. Likewise one or two players who should be one the list were underrated by -3 and shoved off the list. And then you have even more players off by +/-2 and +/-1.

Roy is hopefully underrated. Mine shows that his defense is not too good.

Probably LA is one of the ones overrated. But I doubt Amare is better. The spread is too big.

 

[bobf]

I'm not generally one to evaluate systems via "Does it agree exactly with what I already believed?" but the results are very odd. Kenyon Martin and Mike Dunleavy Jr. about as valuable as Chris Paul and Dwight Howard? It's a little hard to believe.

1. I don't believe the std error reported by 82games.com. They weighted heavily for the current season but their standard error is as if it were 5 seasons of unweighted data.

2. Even with gobs (3.5 seasons) of unweighted data, the standard error is still high enough that a few elite players will look like somewhat good players and a few average players will look like very good players. And everything in between.

Mine:
Chris Paul +7.6
Dwight Howard +5.7
Kenyan Martin +2.5
Mike Dunleavy Jr +2.1

PS In case anyone was curious

Player			Rating	Off	Def	StdError
Rodriguez, Sergio	-6.8	-4.3	+2.4	2.3

 

[HailBlazers]

We're more interested in the next several seasons, and LaMarcus is improving while Amare has flatlined already, careerwise.

Shoals also points out Amare can't defend worth a lick, so there's not much else to talk about.

Exactly. So how can everyone spend so much damn time talking about this crap?!

In KP I trust.

 

[MrJayremmie]

Adjust them numbers for minutes played and pace and the difference between Amare and LMA are not as big as some people make them to be, add the fact that LMA is not allergic to defense, is cheaper and is a chemistry fit...

Looking at Pts/Rb/Ast/Blocks/Steals

This year, per 36 LMA is: 17.7/6.8/1.8/1.0/0.9
This year, per-36 Amare is: 20.2/7.9/1.9/1.0/1.0

Phx Pace: 96.7
Por Pace: 88.9

Amare's per-36 numbers adjusted for Portland's pace: 18.6/7.3/1.7/0.9/0.9

All of a sudden - the difference between Aldridge and Amare does not look so big...

Add the fact that Aldridge plays on a team with better rebounders than Phx (Portland is 2nd in the league in rebounding rate, PHX is 15) - and I bet you that Amare will not look any better rebounding the ball next to Oden/'Billa and the rest of the gang...

Amare is fool's gold...

And the fact that Aldridge is like 2 years younger, no? IN 2 years, we don't know how good LMA will be...

So the author compares LMA actual stats to Amare's hypothetical stats as a reason Amare is better? I could easily say that LMA would put up 25/8 in "slightly better circumstances", such as playing with Nash or being the primary scorer.

Lame article, lame argument.

Yep...