Portland's Magic Number: 1

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Re: Portland's Magic Number: 11

I think they are thinking about home court advantage.

Indeed. It's the fans who are worried about 8 seed / not making the playoffs. I'm sure the team isn't just hoping to make the playoffs, but going for the division.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 10

A lot of things would need to go our way for us to clinch by April 1, but the optimism is refreshing!
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 10

We got the magic number to single digits. If Phoenix can get upset the number will be 8!
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 17

A small part of me wants the 8th seed so that we can boot the Lakers out of the playoffs. That would be so fucking awesome.

Never would happen, see Western Conference Finals, 2002, Kings-Lakers, Game 5
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

If we lose to Cleveland, but beat the Bucks, we'll have 44 wins with 12 games to go. 7 and home 5 on the road. If we can beat the Clippers, Thunder and Grizzles at on the road, and win the rest of our home games, that's 54 wins. Pretty incredible 10-2 finish, but it's do able if we're on our game every night. I project the Jazz to finish with no more than 50 wins, with their tough schedule, so I think we're good for at least the 6th seed. But 54 wins may win us the division. Denver has 5 really tough road games coming up. So that would probably do it.
 
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Re: Portland's Magic Number: 11

Indeed. It's the fans who are worried about 8 seed / not making the playoffs. I'm sure the team isn't just hoping to make the playoffs, but going for the division.


If by "team", you mean Nate and the players, I agree.

Not to be a cynic, but I doubt KP cares, and I know the Vulcan bean-counters don't. No matter what seed the Blazers get, they are guaranteed 2 play-off games in the RG. Ka-ching! :devilwink:
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 11

If by "team", you mean Nate and the players, I agree.

That's who I meant. The people who have an influence on the rest of this season. The front office can really only influence future seasons, at this point.

Not to be a cynic, but I doubt KP cares, and I know the Vulcan bean-counters don't. No matter what seed the Blazers get, they are guaranteed 2 play-off games in the RG. Ka-ching! :devilwink:

I think that's true. As a GM, I think that's the right approach, too. You have to be concerned with process, not so much results. I mean, obviously you want to see great results...but you can't completely control results, only the process. Pritchard probably concerns himself with running the franchise the best he can, putting the best team he can on the floor and the rest is out of his hands. The players and coaching staff have to take it from there.

Plus, this wasn't supposed to be a title-contention year. Winning more games, players becoming better and having some signs of greater success (like reaching the playoffs) is probably the main thing. Extras, like winning the division or a round or two of the playoffs would just be gravy.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

Up 6.5 games with 14 to play. Looking good.

Phoenix has a brutal week next week: vs. Denver, vs Utah, @ Portland, @ Utah ..... OUCH.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

If we lose to Cleveland, but beat the Bucks, we'll have 44 wins with 12 games to go. 7 and home 5 on the road. If we can beat the Clippers, Thunder and Grizzles at on the road, and win the rest of our home games, that's 54 wins. Pretty incredible 10-2 finish, but it's do able if we're on our game every night. I project the Jazz to finish with no more than 50 wins, with their tough schedule, so I think we're good for at least the 6th seed. But 54 wins may win us the division. Denver has 5 really tough road games coming up. So that would probably do it.

54 would be phenomenal, but fairly unlikely. I went through the schedule and came up with 47 as the low number, 52 as the high, and 49 as the most likely number of wins. All in all, a great season and even more impressive that it didn't take some fluky 13 game win streak to make it happen, just good, mostly consistent performances all season long.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

54 would be phenomenal, but fairly unlikely. I went through the schedule and came up with 47 as the low number, 52 as the high, and 49 as the most likely number of wins. All in all, a great season and even more impressive that it didn't take some fluky 13 game win streak to make it happen, just good, mostly consistent performances all season long.

How do you figure 49 is most likely? We have 14 games left, so if you think we'll only muster 49 wins, that means you're predicting us to go 6-8 over our last 14 games. 49 is way too low!!
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

If we just take care of business, we should win the division. Memphis OKC LAC & Millwaukee should be road wins and win our home games..we will be sitting pretty. So don't freak out if we lose to SA HOU or CLE on the road, win the ones we're supposed to!
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

So don't freak out if we lose to SA HOU or CLE on the road, win the ones we're supposed to!

I'm thinking that's going to be hard for some posters... specifically one. sorry its the truth.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

How do you figure 49 is most likely? We have 14 games left, so if you think we'll only muster 49 wins, that means you're predicting us to go 6-8 over our last 14 games. 49 is way too low!!

Up next
@ Cleveland L
@ Milwaukee L
Philly L
Phoenix L
Memphis W
Utah W
@ OKC L
@ Houston L
@ Memphis W
@ San Antonio L
Lakers L
@ Clippers W
OKC W
Denver W

Make the Philly game a tossup and it goes 49 or 50 ... it might be more, but I think my estimate isn't completely crazy. Bottom line is that there are ton of tough rough road games left, and some of the other teams we don't match up with particularly well. (Philly, Phoenix, OKC, etc.)
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

Make the Philly game a tossup and it goes 49 or 50 ... it might be more, but I think my estimate isn't completely crazy. Bottom line is that there are ton of tough rough road games left, and some of the other teams we don't match up with particularly well. (Philly, Phoenix, OKC, etc.)

Losing to Milwaukee and OKC, even on the road, I think is way too pessimistic. And Portland should be favoured over Phoenix and Philadelphia at home. And if you're going to ding Portland for "bad matchups," why do you also fail to give them the benefit of the doubt on a supposedly "good matchup," like the Lakers at home?

To me, your predictions read as "Which games can be reasonably justified as losses?" Which makes sense for a "low estimate" rather than a median estimate.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

Up next
@ Cleveland L
@ Milwaukee L
Philly L
Phoenix L
Memphis W
Utah W
@ OKC L
@ Houston L
@ Memphis W
@ San Antonio L
Lakers L
@ Clippers W
OKC W
Denver W

Make the Philly game a tossup and it goes 49 or 50 ... it might be more, but I think my estimate isn't completely crazy. Bottom line is that there are ton of tough rough road games left, and some of the other teams we don't match up with particularly well. (Philly, Phoenix, OKC, etc.)


A four game losing streak coming off two convincing road win (3rd game in 4 nights, at that) as this team slowly starts to get healthy (assuming Aldridge will be fine)?

Hollinger has us at 52 as of tonight. 54 is probably just as unlikely as 49.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

I don't see us losing 3 more home games the rest of the way considering we have only lost 6 the entire year
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 11

That's who I meant. The people who have an influence on the rest of this season. The front office can really only influence future seasons, at this point.



I think that's true. As a GM, I think that's the right approach, too. You have to be concerned with process, not so much results. I mean, obviously you want to see great results...but you can't completely control results, only the process. Pritchard probably concerns himself with running the franchise the best he can, putting the best team he can on the floor and the rest is out of his hands. The players and coaching staff have to take it from there.

Plus, this wasn't supposed to be a title-contention year. Winning more games, players becoming better and having some signs of greater success (like reaching the playoffs) is probably the main thing. Extras, like winning the division or a round or two of the playoffs would just be gravy.

The other issue is that there may be cities (New Orleans?) who are concerned about the impact the match-ups could have on attendance. I really don't think that will be an issue in Portland. Regardless of the match-up, I am sure the RG will be sold out. :clap:
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

I think 51 at least. I've predicted 52 originally and still think that's the most likely, but we might even beat it by a game or two.

If we win one of the next two and then have 7 at home and 5 on the road I think we go at least with 7 wins giving us 51 wins. Not that I think we'll win every home game, but I doubt we'll lose every road game either. But if we finish this road trip 3-2 I think we'll most likely finish at 52 or more and no less than 51
 
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Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

Here is my calculation for expected wins the rest of the way...

@ Cleveland 0.2
@ Milwaukee 0.4
Philly 0.6
Phoenix 0.4
Memphis 0.8
Utah 0.4
@ OKC 0.6
@ Houston 0.2
@ Memphis 0.8
@ San Antonio 0.2
Lakers 0.4
@ Clippers 0.8
OKC 0.8
Denver 0.4

That gives us... 7.0 wins. I predict seven wins. :)

Ed O.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

I believe we'll have to forfeit all our wins, and we will end up 0-82.
Anything better than that and I will be happy.

barfo
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

Finishing with 49 wins would probably land us the 8th seed, but I wonder if we'd break a record for 8th seed team with most wins. I say 54 if we're on top of our game every night, 52 is most likely.

If we split the next two games, getting 52 wins would mean going 2-5 on the road, and 6-1 at home.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

52 has been my guess from the start, and I still don't see a reason to drop it.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

I think I predicted 55 but never put it into the thread. The pace we are on now is great considering we never really got to see Greg hit his stride.

I cannot believe how tight the race is from 2-8. If any one of the teams puts on a huge run to end the season they could have the #2.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

Magic number is 8 now. With us playing Philly and Phoenix playing Denver Monday we might be able to get it to 6.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

Magic number is 8 now. With us playing Philly and Phoenix playing Denver Monday we might be able to get it to 6.

I'm hoping it stays at 7.

Blazers over Sixers, and Suns over Nuggets.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

I'm hoping it stays at 7.

Blazers over Sixers, and Suns over Nuggets.

Ya, we know the Suns are not going to catch, but it would be nice to catch the Nuggets. I agree!
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 9

Losing to Milwaukee and OKC, even on the road, I think is way too pessimistic. And Portland should be favoured over Phoenix and Philadelphia at home. And if you're going to ding Portland for "bad matchups," why do you also fail to give them the benefit of the doubt on a supposedly "good matchup," like the Lakers at home?

To me, your predictions read as "Which games can be reasonably justified as losses?" Which makes sense for a "low estimate" rather than a median estimate.

Yeah I might be aiming a little low, but I'm certainly not staking anything on being right. As long as the team gets into the playoffs (which is looking pretty damn likely at this point) that's all I care about, and even 49 or 50 wins will do the trick IMO.
 
Re: Portland's Magic Number: 8

Phoenix could catch us. I don't think so though. I just want us to clinch a playoff birth first.
 

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