Predict the Blazers trade deadline

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Sure but the only person that really has to worry about it is Paul Allen. If clayton Bennett went into luxury tax to pay Kanter I doubt Allen would have a problem doing the same if need be.

I think Neil wants to be in the best position to either make a major splash right now or have enough money for max offers in the summer. Unless its a top 3 pick, I don't think Olshey is focusing on the draft or stockpiling draft picks, he has the assets to form the team right now as he envisions.

 

[BBert]

Yeah, but they overpaid for him. Some teams might just do it out of pure fuckery. I believe the Blazers will have other free agent targets this summer and don't want to tie up cap room. Maybe I'm wrong but I see any of the guys becoming RFAs as being on the block.

I think a team might try to do that to us but I think it won't work. Olshey won't sign someone unless it's on his terms. If the Blazers were going to overpay for someone it would have been Wes, but we weren't going to give him half the contract he got. Not. Worried.

 

[e_blazer]

My guess is that the Blazers play the role of facilitator to a trade involving a big name. Something where their cap space makes a deal possible and the Blazers get back a couple of useful pieces plus a first round pick to hedge against losing theirs by making the playoffs. Here's one thought:

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=hp7xx4w

 

[Schilly]

We did it to OKC with Kanter last year. Well, not backloaded but in terms overpaying

Thats not technically a Poison Pill. Yes it's overpaying, but Poison Pill has more to do with a salary that is structured in a way that makes trading the player under CBA guidelines difficult.

 

[Scalma]

I think a team might try to do that to us but I think it won't work. Olshey won't sign someone unless it's on his terms. If the Blazers were going to overpay for someone it would have been Wes, but we weren't going to give him half the contract he got. Not. Worried.

I don't think money was the reason behind Olshey not offering Wes a contract. The teams direction completely changed when Aldridge chose SA.

 

[tester551]

Thats not technically a Poison Pill. Yes it's overpaying, but Poison Pill has more to do with a salary that is structured in a way that makes trading the player under CBA guidelines difficult.

Correct.

Lillard currently has a Poison Pill contract for 5 more months. A poison pill contract occurs between when a rookie contract is extended & it takes effect.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q90

 

[Draco]

That is over $33 Million in salary the Blazers would be trading for with only $17 Million going out. Yes Crawford's $5.7M comes off this summer but does this roster want Lance Stephenson for the next year and a half? I understand Meyers might not be back if he gets offered a monster deal and Hendo/Kaman were leaving anyway but that is a TON of cap space given up for two very talented, albeit questionable locker room guys.

That also makes Portland very small for at least the rest of this season. Her is the rest of the roster filled out with the trade implications.

Plumlee, Davis
Griffin, Harkless, Alexander
Aminu, Stephenson, Montero
CJ, Crabbe, Connaughton
Dame, Frazier

Lance's contract is a team option for next year which we obviously wouldn't pick up, he likely would be bought out and never actually join the Blazers team. Blake Griffin is the only contract lasting beyond June. Leonard's cap hold and Vonleh contract would be off the books; so after that trade in the summer we'd have $16 million in cap space. That $16 million is if we are keeping Harkless and Crabbe cap holds. Renounce Harkless and you'd have Durant sized cap space along with the core you listed.

Aminu and Harkless can play the 4; infact I think it may be their superior positions. Griffin can play a few minutes of Draymond Green style center small ball.

The reasons I can think to not do the trade from the Blazers end are:
#1 If the character issues with Blake Griffin are a major long term problem; which Olshey should have a good judgement of
#2 We don't believe Blake Griffin would stay beyond next season when he is a free agent in summer of 2017.

With how little we are giving up we don't have to be guaranteed Griffin will resign; but we need to have a realistic chance. If not its better to keep Plumlee and Vonleh on their cheap contracts and maybe even Hendo's bird rights.

 

[Draco]

At the least, I expect us to try to get to the salary floor. Then again, we can also do this after our season ends, but before July 1.

Why? The penalty is we give our players a bonus.

 

[Draco]

I think Neil targets Thaddeus Young to fill the PF spot. He's hugely underrated and doesn't demand the ball, so it wouldn't interrupt any of the current offense. He's a massive upgrade to Noah on both offense and defense. We send them Noah, and even offer to take back JJack in a salary dump since he's done for the year.

If we were trying to win now yes. If we continue to build with youth no chance.

 

[Draco]

One last Griffin trade idea I'll throw out before some fans here shoot me. Blow up the Hawks, Jazz get a PG, Clips get vets to win now.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=zj6mq9h

Picks from Utah and us also go to the Hawks. Atlanta gets a big enough trade exception to take on some overpaid Heat contracts and get another pick as well.

 

[BonesJones]

One last Griffin trade idea I'll throw out before some fans here shoot me. Blow up the Hawks, Jazz get a PG, Clips get vets to win now.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=zj6mq9h

Picks from Utah and us also go to the Hawks. Atlanta gets a big enough trade exception to take on some overpaid Heat contracts and get another pick as well.

I think the Jazz and Clippers would do that, and it'd be a steal for us. Not sure about the Hawks though.

 

[BonesJones]

But I'm just gonna fantasize about doing that trade, then trading CJ, Davis, and Aminu for Boogie. If we couldn't sell Durant on joining Lillard/Griffin/Cousins then I don't know what would.

 

[TBpup]

My guess is that the Blazers play the role of facilitator to a trade involving a big name. Something where their cap space makes a deal possible and the Blazers get back a couple of useful pieces plus a first round pick to hedge against losing theirs by making the playoffs. Here's one thought:

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=hp7xx4w

That is exactly what a reporter from Houston was just talking about. He thought HOU/MIA made great trading partners but needed a 3rd team involved for cap reasons to make it happen. However, I don't see them taking back that much salary AND giving up Harkless unless there are picks involved.

 

[Draco]

I think the Jazz and Clippers would do that, and it'd be a steal for us. Not sure about the Hawks though.

There is a lot of talk about the Hawks blowing it up. They aren't sure about Horford resigning, Schroder might be the better starter, and Korver is turning 35 next month. Yes both us and Utah would have to send Atlanta picks.

I'm not sure the Hawks can get much more than all those young pieces. Can they get the Brooklyn pick from Boston? I would tend to think not. The Hawks probably decide to just stand pat. But the trade I linked is a plausible scenario.

 

[e_blazer]

That is exactly what a reporter from Houston was just talking about. He thought HOU/MIA made great trading partners but needed a 3rd team involved for cap reasons to make it happen. However, I don't see them taking back that much salary AND giving up Harkless unless there are picks involved.

I agree. The Blazers would need a first round pick, otherwise they may as well hold onto their cap space until summer.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

Good odds that we do nothing but I see an outside chance we see if Hibbert is washed up.

 

[BonesJones]

Good odds that we do nothing but I see an outside chance we see if Hibbert is washed up.

He is.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Griffin is a top 10 player when healthy, we are not getting him for old ass Kaman,Mayers and Henderson, FORGET IT!

Well, the most valuable asset in his proposal is Vonleh, and the Clippers could take him instead of Morris and Tucker if they wanted.

One last Griffin trade idea I'll throw out before some fans here shoot me. Blow up the Hawks, Jazz get a PG, Clips get vets to win now.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=zj6mq9h

Picks from Utah and us also go to the Hawks. Atlanta gets a big enough trade exception to take on some overpaid Heat contracts and get another pick as well.

Just want to give you some credit for coming up with some complicated trade scenarios that actually seem reasonable for all teams, especially this last one. I think it should be remembered that Atlanta and LA are not really dealing from such a position of strength. LA is looking to trade a guy who has a problem with his temper (and possibly alcohol) and he can't play this year. Atlanta is working with Horford, who they may already know is unlikely to re-sign with them.

 

[Schilly]

Good odds that we do nothing but I see an outside chance we see if Hibbert is washed up.

No need to watch him in a Blazers uniform to know that's the case.

 

[Blazers Roy]

Didn't the NBA do just that when the Clips got CP3?

That's different, trades to teams from LA cannot be explained.

 

[dviss1]

Something like this would be what I'd try if I'm Neil

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=gw535rt

We get Blake Griffin
Clippers get Markieff Morris, Hendo, Meyers, PJ Tucker, $11mil trade exception, POR pick, PHX pick
Phoenix gets Vonleh, Kaman

Clips flip trade exception and picks for a vet in another trade. Gives us a lineup of;

Plumlee, Davis
Griffin, Harkless
Aminu,
CJ, Crabbe
Dame

I can't STAND Blake Griffin and I'd LOVE that deal!

 

[Draco]

I know I said that earlier post was my last trade idea but apparently I got a sickness and can't stop. It'll all end on Thursday at latest. In the meantime guess ya'all are gonna have to put up with me.

So I was listening to Simmons podcast and they mentioned the Dwight Howard to Portland idea; doesn't really make sense to me if we are staying with the youth movement. They talked about getting Dwight for basically just Plumlee. I have some intrigue but some hesitation; similar feelings I've had with landing Blake Griffin. With all the youth we currently have I'm not sure we are ready to make that win now type of move. Dwight can leave in the summer and has little value. But that's why he might be available for less than ever. Griffin can leave as a free agent in 2017 and is worth more than Dwight; but has his own concerns. Definitely the lowest point of his trade value as well though. So if we are giving up valuable young players to acquire either we really need to win soon.

Then I though; why the hell not combine both trades? Howard earns $22.4milllion, Griffin $18.9million and we have $20.6 million of cap space. Impossible you say? Well here is how we could do it.

Trade #1 see on ESPN trade machine:
PDX get Dwight Howard
HOU get Mason Plumlee, Joe Johnson
BRK get Ty Lawson, Cliff Alexander

This trade uses all our cap space. Houston gets to improve their chemistry and a player with a cheap contract beyond this season. They either feel good about making the playoffs with this different group or miss the playoffs and keep their lottery protected pick. Houston drops below the luxury tax and avoids repeater tax in future seasons. Brooklyn saves massive money and gets to take a look at Lawson and Cliff Alexander.

Trade #2 see on ESPN trade machine:
PDX get Blake Griffin
LAC get Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha
ATL get Chris Kaman, Meyers Leonard, Mo Harkless, Noah Vonleh, Allen Crabbe, top10 protected 2019 Blazers first round pick

The difficult part with constructing this second trade is getting the salaries to match. As the Blazers used all their cap space in the first trade they need to match salaries as an over the cap team. Since Griffin makes $18.9mil the Blazers need to send out at least $13.9 mil in a trade. The Clippers replace Griffin's production with another All-star in Al Horford while filling out their bench with useful Korver and Thabo. Atlanta rebuilds with young players and another pick. Adjust the protection on the pick as you feel necessary to complete the trade.

After all the moves the Blazers will need to sign some veteran free agents for bench spots, particularly backup forward spots. But this is their depth chart after the trades;

Howard, Davis
Griffin
Aminu, Hendo
CJ
Dame, Frazier

Can this core contend with the Warriors, Spurs, Thunder in the next two years? If yes it's worth Neil exploring, if not then its probably best to stick with our younger cheaper options.

 

[Blazers Roy]

I can't STAND Blake Griffin and I'd LOVE that deal!

I can't stand him either (even though i want him on the team).
I wonder, why can't we stand to see his stupid face?

 

[GoBlazersGo]

I know I said that earlier post was my last trade idea but apparently I got a sickness and can't stop. It'll all end on Thursday at latest. In the meantime guess ya'all are gonna have to put up with me.

So I was listening to Simmons podcast and they mentioned the Dwight Howard to Portland idea; doesn't really make sense to me if we are staying with the youth movement. They talked about getting Dwight for basically just Plumlee. I have some intrigue but some hesitation; similar feelings I've had with landing Blake Griffin. With all the youth we currently have I'm not sure we are ready to make that win now type of move. Dwight can leave in the summer and has little value. But that's why he might be available for less than ever. Griffin can leave as a free agent in 2017 and is worth more than Dwight; but has his own concerns. Definitely the lowest point of his trade value as well though. So if we are giving up valuable young players to acquire either we really need to win soon.

Then I though; why the hell not combine both trades? Howard earns $22.4milllion, Griffin $18.9million and we have $20.6 million of cap space. Impossible you say? Well here is how we could do it.

Trade #1 see on ESPN trade machine:
PDX get Dwight Howard
HOU get Mason Plumlee, Joe Johnson
BRK get Ty Lawson, Cliff Alexander

This trade uses all our cap space. Houston gets to improve their chemistry and a player with a cheap contract beyond this season. They either feel good about making the playoffs with this different group or miss the playoffs and keep their lottery protected pick. Houston drops below the luxury tax and avoids repeater tax in future seasons. Brooklyn saves massive money and gets to take a look at Lawson and Cliff Alexander.

Trade #2 see on ESPN trade machine:
PDX get Blake Griffin
LAC get Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha
ATL get Chris Kaman, Meyers Leonard, Mo Harkless, Noah Vonleh, Allen Crabbe, top10 protected 2019 Blazers first round pick

The difficult part with constructing this second trade is getting the salaries to match. As the Blazers used all their cap space in the first trade they need to match salaries as an over the cap team. Since Griffin makes $18.9mil the Blazers need to send out at least $13.9 mil in a trade. The Clippers replace Griffin's production with another All-star in Al Horford while filling out their bench with useful Korver and Thabo. Atlanta rebuilds with young players and another pick. Adjust the protection on the pick as you feel necessary to complete the trade.

After all the moves the Blazers will need to sign some veteran free agents for bench spots, particularly backup forward spots. But this is their depth chart after the trades;

Howard, Davis
Griffin
Aminu, Hendo
CJ
Dame, Frazier

Can this core contend with the Warriors, Spurs, Thunder in the next two years? If yes it's worth Neil exploring, if not then its probably best to stick with our younger cheaper options.

I love all of.our guys... but, "Pull the trigger, Nash!" That roster would be awesome, IMO!

 

[riverman]

I like Plumlee but I'm not at all attached to him....more of a Joel Freeland appreciation...if you can get DHoward straight across for Mason Plumlee..and keep Ed Davis and Meyers Leonard..you have to do that trade

 

[Scalma]

I like Plumlee but I'm not at all attached to him....more of a Joel Freeland appreciation...if you can get DHoward straight across for Mason Plumlee..and keep Ed Davis and Meyers Leonard..you have to do that trade

Yup, and Leonard's recent progression might make Plumlee expendable.

 

[Draco]

Yup, and Leonard's recent progression might make Plumlee expendable.

I think all three are best as the lone center on the floor. Plumlee has a unique offensive skill set; but lacks the interior defense. We need his playmaking with our group now but if we had more offensive production from our forward spots those skills of his become less critical. Meyers gives the offense so much space, but he can't defend quick players and was really exposed as a starter. Long term I think Meyers will always be best as a limited minute unique option off the bench Matt Bonner style. Can't see him ever starting on a contender.

Ed Davis is probably my favorite of the three; some might say he doesn't have the upside; but he's the type of elite role player that can excel alongside stars. Awesome defender, very efficient around the rim. It's not as if he's Joel Pryzbilla offensively, the guy has a knack for put backs and an outstanding PER. If you put a more skilled offensive teammate in the frontcourt, which I think this team is likely to have if it ever becomes a contender; then Ed Davis is a more effective complimentary piece.

 

[MARIS61]

I predict the Blazers trade deadline is Feb. 18 at 3 p.m. ET.

 

[Draco]

Here's another idea. Greg Monroe hasn't fit in Milwaukee. With Giannis and MCW they need a big man who can shoot. Blazers had a lot of interest in Monroe; he is also locked into a contract that won't go up this summer. His contract only costs $9 million in cap room more than Meyers cap hold so the Blazers would still have max cap space. Heat want to get out of repeater luxury tax and may give up Whiteside to do it. This gives them a replacement they have bird rights with.

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=zrn3a6u

Blazers get Monroe, (Birdman + Haslem contracts)
Bucks get Whiteside, Meyers, (Kaman contract)
Heat get Miles Plumlee

 

[Draco]

Here's another Miami trade, although just with us and them.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=zaq3jtc

Blazers get Justice Winslow (Haslem, Birdman, McBob contracts)
Heat get Plumlee, Hendo, Crabbe

Gives the Heat luxury tax relief including McBob's 3 year overpaid contract. They still have Whiteside to keep or package in another trade. They lose the young Winslow but gain a vet more ready to contribute now in Hendo; but also a promising young wing in Crabbe. Crabbe is 23 and more able to complement the current Heat core than young Winslow. Heat would have Crabbe's bird rights. They get Plumlee on a cheap contract to ease their payroll issues this season and next.

Blazers get the best young long term prospect in the trade in 19 year old Winslow who has 3 more years on a cheap rookie deal. Blazers depth chart is;

Davis, Meyers
Vonleh
Aminu, Harkless
CJ, Winslow
Dame