Race for the 5th-9th seeds

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Draco

Draco

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Blazers 43-38
DEN - Wed Apr13 10:30pm
5th seed with win or Mavs loss
6th seed with loss and Mavs win

Mavericks 42-39
SAS - opponent b2b 3in4 - Wed Apr13 8pm
5th seed with win and Blazers loss
6th seed with win or Grizz loss (if Blazers win)
7th seed with loss and Grizz win

Grizzlies 42-39
@GS - b2b - Wed Apr13 10:30pm
6th seed with win and Mavs loss
7th seed with loss or Mavs win

Rockets 40-41
SAC - Wed Apr13 8pm
8th seed with win or Jazz loss

Jazz 40-41
@LA L - opponent 3in4 - Wed Apr13 10:30pm ESPN
8th seed with win and Rockets loss

Tie breakers
Blazers own MEM 2-2 lost DAL 1-2
Mavericks own PDX 2-1 own MEM 3-1
Grizzlies lost DAL 1-3 lost PDX 2-2
Rockets own UTH 2-2
Jazz lost HOU 2-2
 
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I think Utah has the best chance in the three with identical records
 
Wow Dallas and Utah, both on a back to back. The Mavs finish the season with the Spurs, the Jazz finish with the Lakers. HUGE game for both teams but you've got to think it's that much bigger for the Mavs.
 
Memphis is in freefall. They are an underdog in every game left. I could see them finishing with only ~42 wins and outside the playoffs. Dream scenario if you're a Denver fan. But they could also get a couple fluke wins, or play opponents resting players.

Houston is the team besides us most likely to move up, fairly easy schedule. Dallas is in big trouble with Parsons, Deron both injured I'd say they are most likely to be in the lottery.
 
Odds.jpg

The Blazers' magic number for the playoffs is six. Four of their next five opponents are playoff teams, with games vs. the Celtics and Heat before a game vs. the Warriors. They can overtake the Grizzlies, but they're going to have to earn it.

The Clippers seem like a preferred first-round opponent, but Portland is 1-3 vs. L.A. after the loss last week to the Clips. They're on the bubble, still, tied with Dallas in the loss column, and just one ahead of Utah in that category.

They are unlikely to make much noise, but with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, they have a higher chance to turn heads than any of the other lower seeds, and SportsLine agrees.
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http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on...numbers-and-scenarios-as-jazz-make-their-move
 
Could easily see Memphis finishing 2-5 to finish out. Even wins at Orlando and at home versus the Bulls could be tough as the Magic can score. I think a first round Jazz-Warriors series would be pretty interesting so I'm pulling for Utah to make it over those other two. I think they'll actually finish 7th though. Dallas and Houston..I mean who knows? Who cares really?
The biggest take away for me is the availability of that 5th spot for the Blazers. The Clippers would be a much more desirable match up than any of the top 3.
 
Can't lose to BOS, MIA, DEN, or MIN. I understand BOS and MIA are both good teams, but at this point in the season - heading into the Playoffs - we've got to step up our level of play. Their record is on par with ours - losing to an equal on our home floor would be unacceptable.
 
cardova08 said:
Could easily see Memphis finishing 2-5 to finish out. Even wins at Orlando and at home versus the Bulls could be tough as the Magic can score. I think a first round Jazz-Warriors series would be pretty interesting so I'm pulling for Utah to make it over those other two. I think they'll actually finish 7th though. Dallas and Houston..I mean who knows? Who cares really?
The biggest take away for me is the availability of that 5th spot for the Blazers. The Clippers would be a much more desirable match up than any of the top 3.
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Yes, I think my preferred 1st round matchups would GSW-UTA, SAS-MEM, OKC-HOU, LAC-POR, with Dallas out.
What I think is most likely, however, is GSW-HOU, SAS-UTA, OKC-POR, LAC-MEM, which would probably result in four sweeps.
 
blue9 said:
Can't lose to BOS, MIA, DEN, or MIN. I understand BOS and MIA are both good teams, but at this point in the season - heading into the Playoffs - we've got to step up our level of play. Their record is on par with ours - losing to an equal on our home floor would be unacceptable.
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Now I hope we win those; but I don't agree its a can't lose ultimatum. Boston has two days rest as us and may have Crowder back. We won't have a significant home court advantage against them. If the Blazers play great they could still lose and I'd live with that. Now if the Blazers lay an egg and get blown out that would be unacceptable. Miami should be an easier game as they'll be tired and the final game of a trip. Outside Golden State we should be favorites in the rest.
 
e_blazer said:
The "loss" last week to the Clips would be a W if the refs had done a better job in the last 2 minutes. I'll take the Clips any day over the top 3 teams. Not saying that the Blazers would be favored, just that their odds would be better. Hopefully, the refs will be on their game better in the playoffs.
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Yeah, I also don't want to play OKC for a number of reasons. One is my pipe dream of talking to Durant about signing as a free agent. Don't think he'd be as likely to consider a team he just fought against in the playoffs. I hope Houston plays them to develop bad blood there.

Also would rather play Golden State in the second round if we were so lucky to win a series.
 
Draco said:
Now I hope we win those; but I don't agree its a can't lose ultimatum. Boston has two days rest as us and may have Crowder back. We won't have a significant home court advantage against them. If the Blazers play great they could still lose and I'd live with that. Now if the Blazers lay an egg and get blown out that would be unacceptable. Miami should be an easier game as they'll be tired and the final game of a trip. Outside Golden State we should be favorites in the rest.
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A loss certainly doesn't spell doom and end our Playoff chances - far from it. But IMO a loss to either of these teams would look bad. We're rested too, we're playing at home, and BOS killed us on their home floor. All of that, plus Playoff positioning on the line, means we need to put our best foot forward.
 
Choosing between OKC and LAC is tough. I agree that we have a better chance of not getting swept by playing LAC. But I HATE LAC, and having to sit through 4-7 games is going to make me a very angry person. I don't particularly like OKC either, though, and will probably end up hating them after watching us play them 4 times in a row.

But because wins are all that matter in the POs, I'd rather play LAC.
 
Clippers have to be the dream match up here for a bunch of reasons. Number one is that they don't have the talent or the bench. Number two is the Blake Griffin situation, which was already in flux before the injury, now they have to try and gel that starting lineup in just a few short weeks. CP plays better without Blake so who knows what'll happen. Granted, that lineup did take down the Spurs in 7 last year, but it's hard to see them as a big threat now.
 
blue9 said:
Choosing between OKC and LAC is tough. I agree that we have a better chance of not getting swept by playing LAC. But I HATE LAC, and having to sit through 4-7 games is going to make me a very angry person. I don't particularly like OKC either, though, and will probably end up hating them after watching us play them 4 times in a row.

But because wins are all that matter in the POs, I'd rather play LAC.
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LA is no longer the golden child team in Cali though so they won't get as many bullshit breaks from the refs as they used to; by the same token, we are overachieving underdogs led by a New Star, with a great narrative of redemption and positivity. I think if the league is still rigged, we beat LA.
 
BlazerCaravan said:
LA is no longer the golden child team in Cali though so they won't get as many bullshit breaks from the refs as they used to; by the same token, we are overachieving underdogs led by a New Star, with a great narrative of redemption and positivity. I think if the league is still rigged, we beat LA.
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I like your thinking!
 
The storyline with Doc not allowing CJ to play and Stotts getting angry basically for the first time ever is compelling. We might get a state farm commercial where Damian destroys his 'parents'. The Clippers have so much about them to hate.

Westbrook and Durant can leave us completely hopeless. CP3, Blake, DeAndre can put up some monster games too but that team just seems more ready to choke.

Who knows though; I could see OKC folding in the 4th quarters as they've done all season and the Clippers regain form so maybe what we wish for now in the end won't be best.
 
Draco said:
Who knows though; I could see OKC folding in the 4th quarters as they've done all season and the Clippers regain form so maybe what we wish for now in the end won't be best.
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This is reminding me of when we all wanted to play DAL. The truth of the matter is, we've got a slightly better chance than a snowball in hell no matter who we play. But the more we talk about it, and get each other excited, we'll somehow talk ourselves into believing we'll beat the Clippers.
 
blue9 said:
This is reminding me of when we all wanted to play DAL. The truth of the matter is, we've got a slightly better chance than a snowball in hell no matter who we play. But the more we talk about it, and get each other excited, we'll somehow talk ourselves into believing we'll beat the Clippers.
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Yeah I thought of that the other day too. We didn't want to play the two time champion Lakers at all in round 1. All the analysts picked Dallas as the worst HCA team and the Lakers as the favorites. Well it would've been an epic year to beat the Lakers and they were a mess as Dallas proved in easily sweeping them in round 2. Would have been so sweet to end the Kobe-Phil 5 time title era ourselves even if we'd lost a round later.

One big concern with the Clippers is CP3; he has totally dominated Lillard on both ends basically every game we've played. He is an elite mid range shooter which we struggle to defend. We have the big forwards to defend Durant, and are athletic enough to get back on defense to stop Wesbtrook fastbreaks. Westbrook is poor in the half court midrange where our defense is susceptible.
 
blue9 said:
This is reminding me of when we all wanted to play DAL. The truth of the matter is, we've got a slightly better chance than a snowball in hell no matter who we play. But the more we talk about it, and get each other excited, we'll somehow talk ourselves into believing we'll beat the Clippers.
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NO GOOD CLIPPERS! NO GOOD CLIPPERS!
 
DAMN! Gonna come down to the last night again! I'm sure Memphis is like us and don't want to play any of the top 3!

Whatever happens, I can't believe this is even happening. So proud of our guys this season!
 
Blazers 39-36
BOS - a must win to have a chance at #5. Payback due as well.
MIA - opponent b2b 3in4 - should be a win against a tired, road weary MIA squad.
@GS - b2b - Loss. GS going for a historical record with Portland on a b2b.
@SAC 3in4 - Another 'must win' game even though POR struggles there. Possibly depends on who is in the lineup for SAC
OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Have to win your home games. Both teams will be tired.
MIN - Win...it's MIN
DEN - Win...better be a win.

That gives POR a 45-37 record but I'm not sure I see them going 6-1 down the stretch so with wiggle room, 44-38.

Memphis 41-34
TOR - Loss. Raptors still chasing CLE. Glad this game isn't any later in the season when it might be a lost cause.
@ORL - Magic out of the Playoffs so it's about how MEM plays. Should be a win.
CHI - Battle of the injured lineups. Pick 'em game.
@DAL - Loss. Mavs fighting for that last Playoff spot at home.
GS - b2b - Loss. Warriors on their quest helps us when it hurt us a few days earlier.
@LAC - Clippers likely in a 'no-win' scenario and may rest their starters. Pick 'em
@GS - b2b Should be a loss but GS may have the record wrapped up by then and might sit starters against a hungry MEM team.

That gives MEM somewhere between 43-45 wins depending on other teams spots in the Playoff race. This is going to be very close and we may all end up regretting some of those total meltdowns in games like HOU even more than we did at the time.
 
TBpup said:

This is going to be very close and we may all end up regretting some of those total meltdowns in games like HOU even more than we did at the time.
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See, I don't look at it like that. I look at it like we are lucky to even be in this position. We won so many games we didn't even deserve being in.
 
HCP said:
How Stotts doesn't win Coach of the Year is beyond me. He has done MORE with LESS than anybody else in the league!
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Yeah, but nobody is going to remember this team in ten years. The Warriors may very well break the win record. If that happens, you can bet that Kerr gets the nod.
 
I hear ya. Thing is you or I could coach a team loaded like that. I think the real coaching is when you are a middle of the road team and kick ass when nobody expects you to.
 
Just like MOST improved. Look at Curry's numbers and you might make an argument that he is even better than LAST season.
 
HCP said:
How Stotts doesn't win Coach of the Year is beyond me. He has done MORE with LESS than anybody else in the league!
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Outside of Blazer fans, I suspect Stotts is highly respected. Blazer fans don't appreciate him because they have convinced themselves that Olshey has put together a roster of future super-stars. Everybody else recognizes that he has made chicken salad out of chicken shit! Stotts has made Olshey look good.
 
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