Ric Bucher Likes OKC Over Blazers In A Few Years

[barfo]

If you're given a single die to cast, and you have no idea how many sides are on it, you can roll the die... and get a 7. What is the expected value of the next cast, and what is the number of sides on the die?

Without any additional information, you should probably answer "7" and "13", I would think... it's better than saying any other single number. With a few more data points, though, you can give answers that are more likely to be correct.

I dunno. Certainly "7" is the best answer to the first question. The die might be crooked, favoring the side that says 7, and you have no reason to guess any other number. So 7 it is.

The answer to the second question depends on whether you were told that the faces of the die contain numbers from 1 to N, where N is the number of faces (like a normal die) or not. If so, then you can assume the die has at least 7 faces, but there is no way to tell how many. "7" is not more likely to come up on a 13-faced die than a 9-faced die. In fact, 7 is most likely to come up on a 7 faced die (1/7th of the time). Therefore the right guess is "7". If you cannot assume that the numbers 1-6 exist, then all you know is that the die has at least one face. It could have infinitely many faces, but one is all you have information about. For the same reasons, "1" is the correct guess here.

Of course, I am assuming that you were unable to cop a feel of the die when you rolled it. An infinite-faced die will feel somewhat different in your hand than a one-faced die.

barfo

 

[Minstrel]

Of course, I am assuming that you were unable to cop a feel of the die when you rolled it. An infinite-faced die will feel somewhat different in your hand than a one-faced die.

What would a one-faced die look like? A mobius strip?

 

[Deebag]

I'm really curious. What about Durant's play makes it seem like he has a high ceiling? Because I've really seen nothing that has hinted that he will be a decent passer, rebounder, and/or defender. None.

 

[barfo]

What would a one-faced die look like? A mobius strip?

When you can snatch the one-faced die from my hand, it will be time for you to throw.

barfo

 

[Minstrel]

When you can snatch the one-faced die from my hand, it will be time for you to throw.

Do not try to bend the one-sided die; that's impossible. Instead only try to realize the truth: There is no one-sided die.

minstrel

 

[mgb]

I'm really curious. What about Durant's play makes it seem like he has a high ceiling? Because I've really seen nothing that has hinted that he will be a decent passer, rebounder, and/or defender. None.

Durant's average this year Pts 25.6 Reb 6.5 Ast 2.9

6.5 reb average isn't to bad for a SF.

 

[Minstrel]

Durant's average this year Pts 25.6 Reb 6.5 Ast 2.9

6.5 reb average isn't to bad for a SF.

Nor is three assists for a second year player on a bad team. It won't be good if that's where his assist numbers peak, but there's no reason to believe he won't improve his ability to create for others.

 

[BengalDuck]

Bear in mind OKC plays at one of the fastest paces in the league (I believe 8th last time I looked) so there are more opportunities for assists and rebounds. And points.

Portland plays at the second slowest pace in the league, which makes Roy's statistics all that more impressive IMO.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Bear in mind OKC plays at one of the fastest paces in the league (I believe 8th last time I looked) so there are more opportunities for assists and rebounds. And points.

Portland plays at the second slowest pace in the league, which makes Roy's statistics all that more impressive IMO.

True enough. The point is, KD isn't *just* a gunner. He was a respectable passer/rebounder in college, and is beginning to show those skills at the NBA level. If he becomes even an average defender, he will be an all-star.

There are a number of players in the league who aren't "better" than Roy, but are still huge assets to their teams. (EG Billups, Joe Johnson)

 

[STOMP]

I used to play some pickup hoops vs Bucher in SF... I usually matched up on him. Dude was pretty decent, but man did he have a bad temper. Though I didn't like him on the court, for the most part I've enjoyed his writing and sports talk show contributions. Like all contributers at ESPN (outside stats guy Hollinger), his job is to cover stories/teams in the league and stir the pot a bit. I'd guess he was sent to Oklahoma City to write a piece on the club, and his decided on premise (to stir the pot) was that their future rivaled Portland's. Obviously the results of the last game would beg to differ.

anyhoo... here's a particularly embarrassing blast from the past example of one his predictions that didn't come true.

STOMP

 

[Ed O]

anyhoo... here's a particularly embarrassing blast from the past example of one his predictions that didn't come true.

Ugh. Man.

Ed O.

 

[KingSpeed]

The Blazers are better. Roy is better. Durant has led them to 16 wins. Roy has led us to 44 wins. Roy could score 25 ppg if he wanted. In fact, he'll probably do it next year.

Book it, motherfuckers!

 

[Deebag]

Durant is a nearly 7 foot SF with no good bigs on his team. Also add the fact that since the team misses a lot of shots, there's more rebounds to go around too. Then 6.5 isnt really good at all. The 2.5 assists is probably there by default because hes a good shooter getting double teams, NOT because he actuallly creates for other teams.

 

[rocketeer]

Durant is a nearly 7 foot SF with no good bigs on his team. Also add the fact that since the team misses a lot of shots, there's more rebounds to go around too. Then 6.5 isnt really good at all. The 2.5 assists is probably there by default because hes a good shooter getting double teams, NOT because he actuallly creates for other teams.

so you're basically saying that you don't really know what your talking about you just assume that durant gets his numbers certain ways because that's what you want to think?

 

[mgb]

The Blazers are better. Roy is better. Durant has led them to 16 wins. Roy has led us to 44 wins. Roy could score 25 ppg if he wanted. In fact, he'll probably do it next year.

Book it, motherfuckers!

While I agree Roy is better, that argument is a bit lame. You are comparing a 2 year player to a 4 year player and a team with less talent to one with a lot more talent at this time. Of course the latter team is going to have a lot more wins.

 

[Boob-No-More]

While I agree Roy is better, that argument is a bit lame. You are comparing a 2 year player to a 4 year player and a team with less talent to one with a lot more talent at this time. Of course the latter team is going to have a lot more wins.

Roy is in his 3rd season. He was drafted in 2006. Durant was drafted in 2007. Roy has been in the league one season longer and played 1.38x as many minutes (7512 vs. 5435) as Durant. Yes, Roy is older (and has better teammates), but it's not like he has twice as much NBA experience as Durant.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

Roy is in his 3rd season. He was drafted in 2006. Durant was drafted in 2007. Roy has been in the league one season longer and played 1.38x as many minutes (7512 vs. 5435) as Durant. Yes, Roy is older (and has better teammates), but it's not like he has twice as much NBA experience as Durant.

Roy is significantly older, though, and thus closer to his prime. Roy is in his age 24 season, Durant is in his age 20 season. Athletes are generally thought to reach their primes around age 26 or 27. So Roy may still have some modest upside left, but Durant probably has a lot more.

Roy is clearly better right now but he should be, in some sense. He's closer to a finished product.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Roy is significantly older, though, and thus closer to his prime. Roy is in his age 24 season, Durant is in his age 20 season. Athletes are generally thought to reach their primes around age 26 or 27. So Roy may still have some modest upside left, but Durant probably has a lot more.

Roy is clearly better right now but he should be, in some sense. He's closer to a finished product.

I don't dispute that. I was just correcting the incorrect statement that Roy is a 4th year player and the resulting implication that he has 2x the NBA experience of the 2nd year Durant.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

I don't dispute that. I was just correcting the incorrect statement that Roy is a 4th year player and the resulting implication that he has 2x the NBA experience of the 2nd year Durant.

Yeah, that was clearly wrong. Roy is more experienced, when you consider college years, but only one year more of NBA experience.

I'm very happy with the jumps Roy has made from year to year. This year, he's moved very close to superstar (arguably there, but hard to nail down what "superstar" means). Any further improvement and we're talking about an MVP caliber player.

He's vastly exceeded my expectations and I'm very glad about that.

 

[mgb]

Roy is in his 3rd season. He was drafted in 2006. Durant was drafted in 2007. Roy has been in the league one season longer and played 1.38x as many minutes (7512 vs. 5435) as Durant. Yes, Roy is older (and has better teammates), but it's not like he has twice as much NBA experience as Durant.

BNM

My mistake, 3rd year, but my main premise is still true.

 

[LittleAlex]

If the NBA was a One on One league, Roy vs Durant would be very important. Luckily, the NBA is 5 on 5. Once you get to the level of a Roy or Durant it is awfully hard to determine who is "better". Stats are all that great because those are influenced by pace, system and teamates. Team records are very useful either for the same reason.

I think you can only really look at the two teams as a whole. In that regard, OKC currently lacks bench play and any kind of inside presence. If both teams made no roster changes in the coming years, Portland would dominate the match-up. OKC does have a ton of draft picks and cap space. Unfortunately for them, the draft is ass this year and the free agent crop is pretty bad as well. Big men are at premium, so it is pretty doubtful they could get anyone better then a Diagou or a Frye. They most likely will not be able to upgrade their bigs this summer so that is out. Green is a decent player, but he isn't a power forward.

I would contend that their future is not all that bright, unless you consider struggling for a playoff spot year after year good. In which case OKC is golden.

 

[oldmangrouch]

If the NBA was a One on One league, Roy vs Durant would be very important. Luckily, the NBA is 5 on 5. Once you get to the level of a Roy or Durant it is awfully hard to determine who is "better". Stats are all that great because those are influenced by pace, system and teamates. Team records are very useful either for the same reason.

I think you can only really look at the two teams as a whole. In that regard, OKC currently lacks bench play and any kind of inside presence. If both teams made no roster changes in the coming years, Portland would dominate the match-up. OKC does have a ton of draft picks and cap space. Unfortunately for them, the draft is ass this year and the free agent crop is pretty bad as well. Big men are at premium, so it is pretty doubtful they could get anyone better then a Diagou or a Frye. They most likely will not be able to upgrade their bigs this summer so that is out. Green is a decent player, but he isn't a power forward.

I would contend that their future is not all that bright, unless you consider struggling for a playoff spot year after year good. In which case OKC is golden.

They have what, 5 first round picks in the next 2 drafts (or is it 6 in 3 - I am drawing a blank), plus a GM who grew up in the Spurs organization. (just like KP!) Barring some serious miscalculations, they are going to get significantly better over the next 3 seasons.

 

[rocketeer]

They have what, 5 first round picks in the next 2 drafts (or is it 6 in 3 - I am drawing a blank), plus a GM who grew up in the Spurs organization. (just like KP!) Barring some serious miscalculations, they are going to get significantly better over the next 3 seasons.

of course, all those players are going to be too "inexperienced" like the blazers currently are and won't be a threat to do anything in the league for several more years until they have become "experienced" enough so i'm not sure why you or anyone else is worried about them.

 

[LameR]

of course, all those players are going to be too "inexperienced" like the blazers currently are and won't be a threat to do anything in the league for several more years until they have become "experienced" enough so i'm not sure why you or anyone else is worried about them.

A little hypocritical given I'm sure you've rooted for the Blazers' youth at some point this year. It's not out of the question to say they could have those "inexperienced" players make at least a decent impact like our's did.

 

[rocketeer]

A little hypocritical given I'm sure you've rooted for the Blazers' youth at some point this year. It's not out of the question to say they could have those "inexperienced" players make at least a decent impact like our's did.

if you've read basically anything i've posted you would know that those aren't my thoughts(experience really is practically meaningless, especially playoff experience which is more of something that comes from being a good team rather than being a requirement of one) but the thoughts of the majority around here and around the nba.

 

[STOMP]

They have what, 5 first round picks in the next 2 drafts (or is it 6 in 3 - I am drawing a blank), plus a GM who grew up in the Spurs organization. (just like KP!) Barring some serious miscalculations, they are going to get significantly better over the next 3 seasons.

while I have applauded Presti's judgement in the past couple drafts and of course he did come up in the Spurs organization, he doesn't enjoy the same sort of owner bankrolling an international scouting network like KP does. This next draft is thought to be both weak in top talent and not very deep, so I don't think I'd expect that much of a talent bump from this next draft for them. They do have 3 first round picks this year, but besides their own the other two are from the Spurs and Denver... they may have trouble finding someone that they want to be on the hook with guaranteed contracts for the next 3 years at those spots.

It won't take serious miscalculations to wiff on draft pick talent when there is little talent available. They need quality size badly and there seems to be precious little of that to select from. Maybe Presti takes foreign players just so he can stash them overseas and doesn't have to use his cap space on them...

STOMP

 

[BengalDuck]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=4052136

Here's the article. Need Insider/it'll be in the Magazine..



Looks like he scrapped the idea of OKC > Portland after we whooped their ass.

 

[PapaG]

Ah, the joys of NOT being a mod:

Don't have to deal with jackoffs like this.

http://sportstwo.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1976818&postcount=314

Can't call DaRizzle a *edited* without being censored immediately, but call someone a "jackoff" and then have the censors post later in the same thread and it's totally cool.

 

[MrJayremmie]

Can someone copy and paste that article plz?

 

[hasoos]

Better yet. Can somebody call Ric after the game last night, and see if he has changed his mind again?