Ricky Rubio Thoughts

[Crimson the Cat]

For a moment, and for sake of this discussion, let's just assume that Portland could manufacture a trade that would land them Rubio (i.e. Outlaw and Rodriguez to NY for #8 and Jeffries --> #8 and Fernandez for #2)

I've heard a number of fans and analysts frown on adding Rubio, stating that this team needs experience and not another project, regardless of how much potential the project has. This really wouldn't be an issue though. We'd still have Blake and Bayless (assuming we could attain Ricky without giving those two up; however even if we couldn't there are a multitude of ways to grab back some experience via future trades or free agency). It's not like we're handing the keys over to a kid with a driver's permit and taking a nap while we drive cross-country. He can sit back and have the role Bayless had last year.

The real issue is two-fold for me. Will Ricky Rubio mesh well with our core and our coach? Is he that much better than other guards that would be less expensive to attain?

First, the Coach Nate factor. I would think that Nate would love Ricky's length and toughness. It's safe to say that Rubio has the tools to be an above average defender in this league. Ricky did well in the Olympics of causing havoc in the slower-paced half court sets. I don't see an issue here. I get the feeling that Sarge would trust Ricky's decision making. It's his shooting that would be the biggest concern. However, this is way forgivable to me.

So, I think Portland's one of the more perfect places for him to develop and play in a system that he could excel in. Where I have a difficult time is justifying the cost it's going to take to get him. Outlaw, Rodriguez, Fernandez (or Bayless or Batum), the #8, and a bad contract, such as Jeffries, seems very real to me.

Is he the next Stockton? Will he be more of the Cheeks' variety? And what about our Rudy, Bayless or Batum? We don't know what we're truly giving up with them.

It sort of comes down to Ricky Rubio vs:

- Jonny Flynn
- Stephen Curry
- Mike Conley
- Ramon Sessions

Yes there are other young point guards, but these are the ones that I like the best.

I just don't know if Rubio will be THAT much better, if at all, than some of our other less expensive options.

What do you think?

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

Rudy, Outlaw and Sergio for Lil' Ricky Rubio????

Crazy talk.. Rubio is way too unproven to trade up for.. if he falls to you in the later stages of the lottery - great.. but an unproven 18 year old PG is not someone you target and give up 3 quality rotation players for.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

Oh and I do think Ricky would play well with both Brandon and our bigs.

 

[andalusian]

I have not seen enough of Jonny Flynn so I will exclude him from the discussion.

My gut feeling is that Rubio will never be the shooter that Curry will be - but he will be a better scorer going to the rim and a better defender.
I think that Rubio and Sessions will be very similar on offense - but I still think that Rubio will have the advantage on defense.
Conley is probably the only one that could be as good on both ends of the floor - so I am not really sure what to think of him. If memory serves, however, Conley is a little smaller - so that could be something to consider.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

Rudy, Outlaw and Sergio for Lil' Ricky Rubio????

Crazy talk.. Rubio is way too unproven to trade up for.. if he falls to you in the later stages of the lottery - great.. but an unproven 18 year old PG is not someone you target and give up 3 quality rotation players for.

What if we were talking about an unproven kid named John Stockton who decided to skip out on his commitment to Gonzaga and go straight to the NBA?

 

[BrianFromWA]

Personally, mine isn't in his personal value, though I agree with almost all of your points (I don't know if Nate would hand the keys to a rookie PG, no matter HOW good...)

It's his value to the team. Nate's probably not going to change his offense anytime soon, unless we get a new star player or two. So it's probably going to be a lot of pick-and-pops (that I hope could turn into P&Rs soon), a lot of iso to Roy when in trouble, and trying to get maximum value out of LMA and Oden, who are here to stay.

To me, that doesn't mean another scorer. That doesn't mean another 3pt shooter. It means someone who is good at running the P&R, has a passer's mentality, and can keep his bigs involved. LMA sprints down the court after almost every defensive possession, and averaged about 1.2 dunks per game. That MUST go up. Greg can set a monster pick and has (had?) the athleticism to become a monster in the P&R game. He rarely got the ball, and it wasn't b/c the D sagged into a double-team on him. It was b/c he wasn't passed it.

Rubio, for all of the criticism (legit, maybe) of him being skinny, or turnover-prone, or unathletic, is a heavily-lauded wizard at getting the ball to his teammates in position to score. That makes him really valuable to me.

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

What if we were talking about an unproven kid named John Stockton who decided to skip out on his commitment to Gonzaga and go straight to the NBA?

Listen, Rubio is faaaaar from a sure thing as an NBA starter.. when you start thinking he may someday be the greatest PG that ever played (Stockton)..then you're losing some credibility.

Ricky Rubio is a PROJECT.. any team that drafts him should be prepared to watch him struggle in the NBA for the better part of the next 3 years (and that is being kind)..

do the Blazers seem like they are in that position?

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

Personally, mine isn't in his personal value, though I agree with almost all of your points (I don't know if Nate would hand the keys to a rookie PG, no matter HOW good...)

It's his value to the team. Nate's probably not going to change his offense anytime soon, unless we get a new star player or two. So it's probably going to be a lot of pick-and-pops (that I hope could turn into P&Rs soon), a lot of iso to Roy when in trouble, and trying to get maximum value out of LMA and Oden, who are here to stay.

To me, that doesn't mean another scorer. That doesn't mean another 3pt shooter. It means someone who is good at running the P&R, has a passer's mentality, and can keep his bigs involved. LMA sprints down the court after almost every defensive possession, and averaged about 1.2 dunks per game. That MUST go up. Greg can set a monster pick and has (had?) the athleticism to become a monster in the P&R game. He rarely got the ball, and it wasn't b/c the D sagged into a double-team on him. It was b/c he wasn't passed it.

Rubio, for all of the criticism (legit, maybe) of him being skinny, or turnover-prone, or unathletic, is a heavily-lauded wizard at getting the ball to his teammates in position to score. That makes him really valuable to me.

Sergio can do this too.. why not just keep him?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Crazy talk.. Rubio is way too unproven to trade up for.. if he falls to you in the later stages of the lottery - great.. but an unproven 18 year old PG is not someone you target and give up 3 quality rotation players for.

Define "unproven". Either
(a) everyone in this draft is unproven, so you would never trade up for anyone
or
(b) playing in the Olympics and in the second-best pro league in the world counts as being "unproven" whereas playing against a much lower caliber of player in American Colleges counts as "proven"

If (b), then that's moronic.

 

[andalusian]

Sergio can do this too.. why not just keep him?

Because Sergio can only do it in the open-floor, not in the half-court.

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

Define "unproven". Either
(a) everyone in this draft is unproven, so you would never trade up for anyone
or
(b) playing in the Olympics and in the second-best pro league in the world counts as being "unproven" whereas playing against a much lower caliber of player in American Colleges counts as "proven"

If (b), then that's moronic.

Rubio averaged 10 pts and like 4 assists in the Euro League.. and I would argue that "the 2nd best league in the world" part is meaningless.. .. the NBA is way different from all the Euro Leagues.. NCAA is played in a similar fashion as the NBA.. you can generally tell if a college player can translate to the pros.. while the Euro's are a total crapshoot.

Rubio is not worth trading up for.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

I have not seen enough of Jonny Flynn so I will exclude him from the discussion.

Flynn is phenomenal. He exudes toughness (mental and physical). He reminds me of Kyle Lowry but with a much better offensive game. He single-handedly took Syracuse to the Big East Title and got them deep into the tourney this year. He's on the smallish size side so that would be my main concern, but to me, he's what Brandon Roy was coming out. Everyone knocked Brandon for not being athletic enough, just like people will knock Flynn for being a 6-footer. But, like Brandon, I get the feeling that Jonny's other skills and drive will more than make up for his size.

Dude is going to be a very very good starter for someone's team eventually. I hope it's mine if we can't get Rubio.

 

[illmatic99]

Because Sergio can only do it in the open-floor, not in the half-court.

Nonsense.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

Rubio, for all of the criticism (legit, maybe) of him being skinny, or turnover-prone, or unathletic, is a heavily-lauded wizard at getting the ball to his teammates in position to score. That makes him really valuable to me.

Right. I hear ya. But could say a Mike Conley get you the same results, or near to it, and the price be a lot less expensive?

 

[Crimson the Cat]

Listen, Rubio is faaaaar from a sure thing as an NBA starter.. when you start thinking he may someday be the greatest PG that ever played (Stockton)..then you're losing some credibility.

Did you watch the Olympics? I don't recall if Ricky Rubio started, but if he didn't, it wasn't that he couldn't. He played starter minutes on a team that nearly beat a very, very good ball club. The question isn't whether he's a starter, but whether he's going to be one of the better starters in our league.

And really. Isn't it reasonable that you're losing credibility by not analyzing how good he will become? Will there never be another John Stockton-esque player again? What was your thoughts on Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, or Lebron James? And really how is it different?

do the Blazers seem like they are in that position?

Actually with the amount of assets Pritchard has accumulated, we are in that position, as I thought I pointed out in my OP.

 

[shamelessblazer]

I'd a lot rather send Bayless/Sergio to NY and Outlaw/#8 to Memphis than trade Rudy at any cost. ESPECIALLY if we're getting Rubio (Rudy could help a lot).

 

[Crimson the Cat]

Rubio averaged 10 pts and like 4 assists in the Euro League.. and I would argue that "the 2nd best league in the world" part is meaningless.. .. the NBA is way different from all the Euro Leagues.. NCAA is played in a similar fashion as the NBA.. you can generally tell if a college player can translate to the pros.. while the Euro's are a total crapshoot.

Rubio is not worth trading up for.

I suppose Pritchard's been wasting his time acquiring the rights to Sergio, Rudy, Nicolas, and Joel Freeland. I suppose if you don't know what the hell you're doing, it's a crapshoot.

Out of curiosity, I'd love to know who you would've picked in place of all the Euros drafted in the last ... say ... 8 years.

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

Did you watch the Olympics? I don't recall if Ricky Rubio started, but if he didn't, it wasn't that he couldn't. He played starter minutes on a team that nearly beat a very, very good ball club. The question is whether he's a starter, but whether he's going to be one of the better starters in our league.

And really. Isn't it reasonable that you're losing credibility by not analyzing how good he will become? Will there never be another John Stockton-esque player again? What was your thoughts on Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, or Lebron James? And really how is it different?



Actually with the amount of assets Pritchard has accumulated, we are in that position, as I thought I pointed out in my OP.

Rubio scored 8 pts on 1-4 shooting with 3 assists and 4 TO's against the USA.

like my boy Jason Quick - I am "underwhelmed".

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

I suppose Pritchard's been wasting his time acquiring the rights to Sergio, Rudy, Nicolas, and Joel Freeland. I suppose if you don't know what the hell you're doing, it's a crapshoot.

Out of curiosity, I'd love to know who you would've picked in place of all the Euros drafted in the last ... say ... 8 years.

Listen, to what I am saying.. if Rubio fell to # 24 - where we drafted Rudy Fernandez - one of the greatest Euro players in the past decade... I would love to draft him.

But trading 3 quality - proven NBA players for the chance to draft him is complete nonsense and KP would never do it.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

I'd a lot rather send Bayless/Sergio to NY and Outlaw/#8 to Memphis than trade Rudy at any cost. ESPECIALLY if we're getting Rubio (Rudy could help a lot).

Memphis might entertain Mike Conley for the #8 and Outlaw, but I doubt they'd move Ricky Rubio for that.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Right. I hear ya. But could say a Mike Conley get you the same results, or near to it, and the price be a lot less expensive?

I don't know that I'd say Conley could get the same results. Look, we're talking about a guy who's between Jason Kidd and Chris Paul in his passing ability and court vision (in the eyes of scouts). Some have said he's the best Euro passer ever. Some compare him to Maravich and Magic for court vision. I don't see people saying that about Conley.

Yes, Conley'd be cheaper. No, I wouldn't hate it if Conley was the best we could do. But if there's a potential for getting Rubio, albeit minute, then I think KP has to do the due diligence to try to get him.

Some other complaints are that he's not ready to carry a lottery team. He won't have to here.
Some say that his turnovers are from throwing to the likes of Jerome Moiso. With LMA and a healthy Oden, I can't think of another team in the league that is set up to utilize Rubio as well as us.
Some say he might get a coach fired. Nate is about the 4th-to-last guy in the league in likelihood of getting fired (behind PJax, Sloan and Pops).

Some say he is 2 years away from being all-world. Our core has two years.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

Rubio scored 8 pts on 1-4 shooting with 3 assists and 4 TO's against the USA.

like my boy Jason Quick - I am "underwhelmed".

Since you ignored my question, I'll surmise that you didn't watch that game. There's a ton more to basketball than that stat line you pulled up. Nor did you care to place it in the context of what happened. He was 17 and holding his own with our country's best stars. He was getting his teammates involved and playing more than solid defense. When his shot wasn't falling, he was getting to the line.

Whatever.

 

[PapaG]

Since you ignored my question, I'll surmise that you didn't watch that game. There's a ton more to basketball than that stat line you pulled up. Nor did you care to place it in the context of what happened. He was 17 and holding his own with our country's best stars. He was getting his teammates involved and playing more than solid defense. When his shot wasn't falling, he was getting to the line.

Whatever.

Rudy Fernandez looked to be the second best player on the floor that game, and it turns out he is a limited player who may never have the all-around game to be an All-Star type starter in the NBA. Put me in the group that says trading 3 NBA players from a 54-win team for a skinny 18 year-old 6'3" PG who can't shoot is an absurd idea. Rubio may become a great NBA player, but he may not even worth a lottery pick for the duration of his rookie contract.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

I don't know that I'd say Conley could get the same results. Look, we're talking about a guy who's between Jason Kidd and Chris Paul in his passing ability and court vision (in the eyes of scouts). Some have said he's the best Euro passer ever. Some compare him to Maravich and Magic for court vision. I don't see people saying that about Conley.

True. And Ricky is, what, 4 years younger?

Simplified, the discussion could be first all-team potential vs. all-star potential.

Great points!

 

[Crimson the Cat]

Rudy Fernandez looked to be the second best player on the floor that game, and it turns out he is a limited player who may never have the all-around game to be an All-Star type starter in the NBA. Put me in the group that says trading 3 NBA players from a 54-win team for a skinny 18 year-old 6'3" PG who can't shoot is an absurd idea. Rubio may become a great NBA player, but he may not even worth a lottery pick for the duration of his rookie contract.

Don't forget that Rubio is 4 or 5 years younger than Rudy.

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

Since you ignored my question, I'll surmise that you didn't watch that game. There's a ton more to basketball than that stat line you pulled up. Nor did you care to place it in the context of what happened. He was 17 and holding his own with our country's best stars. He was getting his teammates involved and playing more than solid defense. When his shot wasn't falling, he was getting to the line.

Whatever.

I watched the game - Ricky Rubio looked like he could be a fine player someday.. but he did not look like a guy I would trade Rudy, Travis and Sergio in order to get.

That would be a big time gamble.. there is no reason to gamble right now.. Rudy, Travis and Sergio should get us a proven Allstar level PG.

 

[PapaG]

Don't forget that Rubio is 4 or 5 years younger than Rudy.

Correct, which makes it silly to me to trade away two proven productive players along with an older version of Rubio for a player that may take 4 years (or longer) to develop into an elite PG. The timing just isn't right for Rubio in terms of where the team is at right now. Plus, Blake was berated for allowing Brooks and Lowry to penetrate, and Rubio is an even worse perimeter defender at this point.

 

[Crimson the Cat]

I watched the game - Ricky Rubio looked like he could be a fine player someday.. but he did not look like a guy I would trade Rudy, Travis and Sergio in order to get.

That would be a big time gamble.. there is no reason to gamble right now.. Rudy, Travis and Sergio should get us a proven Allstar level PG.

Did you have an All-Star level PG in mind that could be had for that package? I can't think of any that would be made available for that package.

Anyway, I'm still torn between the idea of swinging for the fences, especially without giving away our core and losing a step in our ascension into the depths of the Playoffs, or just playing it safer and getting a sure hit.

 

[Hank The Dwarf]

Did you have an All-Star level PG in mind that could be had for that package? I can't think of any that would be made available for that package.

Anyway, I'm still torn between the idea of swinging for the fences, especially without giving away our core and losing a step in our ascension into the depths of the Playoffs, or just playing it safer and getting a sure hit.

Impossible to know who is available and for what price... I should have said that for me to endorse trading those guys - I would expect an Allstar level player in return...

could that package get you Steve Nash? Jason Kidd and Brandon Bass? Andre Miller and change?

not sure.. but I'd prefer those guys to Rubio - for a team that has a chance to win now.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Your last point fascinates me, Hank. Who do you think would be available that would qualify for that? Someone like Billups? CP3? Parker? Nash/Kidd? I'd agree that I'd taken the proven Parker/CP3 over Rubio for that package. Nash/Kidd/Billups is a bit of a weaker argument, but maybe.

Color me supremely unimpressed with Miller, and after watching 3 years of SAC games with Bibby at the helm, no thank you.

EDIT: Was typing this post before I saw your response.