Rigid Substitution Patterns

[RR7]

We've all seen lots of complaints on here about Nate's substituion patterns. How Joel always comes in around the 6 minute mark, not allowing the hothand in the first quarter to stay in,etc.

Was going through SA's game log recently. Looking at their first few games, before Parker got injured. Was weird how a much better coach than Nate had a very similar problem. He had a pattern. And he generally stuck to it. Manu comes in around the 7 minute mark. Parker goes out around the 4-3 minute mark. Bonner and either Jefferson or Finley out at around the 4.5 minute mark. It's weird. Every game. Hot hand or not, Parker is out at the same time. Why won't Pop ride him? Or has Parker not been on at all this entire year in the first quarter? What gives? I was lead to believe it wsa a serious problem that we seemed to be alone in having. But the bestcoach in the game does this as well? Is it spreading? I'm too lazy right now, and at work to look it up, but I'm willing to bet a lot of coaches have a similar substitution pattern they work off of. I recall seeing it from Phil Jackson a lot. I also recall seeing opposing fans in game threads mock their coach, something along the lines of oh, it's (insert time frame here), time for (insert player here) to get his 4 minute rest.

 

[magnifier661]

We've all seen lots of complaints on here about Nate's substituion patterns. How Joel always comes in around the 6 minute mark, not allowing the hothand in the first quarter to stay in,etc.

Was going through SA's game log recently. Looking at their first few games, before Parker got injured. Was weird how a much better coach than Nate had a very similar problem. He had a pattern. And he generally stuck to it. Manu comes in around the 7 minute mark. Parker goes out around the 4-3 minute mark. Bonner and either Jefferson or Finley out at around the 4.5 minute mark. It's weird. Every game. Hot hand or not, Parker is out at the same time. Why won't Pop ride him? Or has Parker not been on at all this entire year in the first quarter? What gives? I was lead to believe it wsa a serious problem that we seemed to be alone in having. But the bestcoach in the game does this as well? Is it spreading? I'm too lazy right now, and at work to look it up, but I'm willing to bet a lot of coaches have a similar substitution pattern they work off of. I recall seeing it from Phil Jackson a lot. I also recall seeing opposing fans in game threads mock their coach, something along the lines of oh, it's (insert time frame here), time for (insert player here) to get his 4 minute rest.

How is it working for Pop so far this season?

 

[RR7]

You're right, he probably just implemented that this season. Guy's a poor coach.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

How is it working for Pop so far this season?

How has it worked for Pop in his career?

I have read/heard interviews with players where they say it is very important for them to know when they are coming into and going out of a game. This especially makes sense in the 1st half...

 

[RR7]

Yep. A lot of players like to "know their schedule" And you see most coaches, including Nate, do their heavy tinkering with the lineup and rotations in the 4th quarter.

 

[magnifier661]

You're right, he probably just implemented that this season. Guy's a poor coach.

I don't know. Do you? Do you have the sub patterns he used last season or the season before? Have they changed? Maybe he's doing this to figure out the new players he has playing now. Not saying he's a bad coach. He's a champion. But don't know what happened during the successful years.

 

[magnifier661]

How has it worked for Pop in his career?

I have read/heard interviews with players where they say it is very important for them to know when they are coming into and going out of a game. This especially makes sense in the 1st half...

I want to see proof that he's done this during his successful years. Hell I may try looking it up.

 

[RR7]

So you've never noticed any other coach having a substitution pattern before? He had a pattern. The majority of coaches, I would say, do.

 

[magnifier661]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=290418024 This game Parker stays in until the 2nd period and immediately comes in at the 8:27 mark (only 4 minute rest).

 

[magnifier661]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=290403011 This game Parker plays the entire first period and doesn't come back until the 4 minute mark.

 

[RR7]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=291027022 This game Oden stays in until the 3 minute mark of the first quarter. Look at that. I guess there isn't a pattern to either of them.

The game you showed was a playoff game. Everyone knows rotations get tightened in the playoffs.

 

[magnifier661]

In fact, I have been randomly looking at the subbing patterns last season and noticed it's not very mechanical. If you actually see the transcripts, you will see someone getting the hot hand and he rides them. Also, I've noticed that either Parker, Duncan or Gionobli are in the game for the entire game. I don't see that with our team. There are times when Roy, Aldridge and Oden aren't even on the floor. I don't think comparing a champion coach like Pop to a hard head like Nate should ever be mentioned. I even went as far back as the title years and he was even more random with his coaching.

 

[magnifier661]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=291027022 This game Oden stays in until the 3 minute mark of the first quarter. Look at that. I guess there isn't a pattern to either of them.

The game you showed was a playoff game. Everyone knows rotations get tightened in the playoffs.

Yes in playoff games players play more minutes (The ones that are the marquee players on your team), so I would say keeping Oden in for an extra 3 minutes can apply. Look at the regular season last year. They are very mechanical.

 

[RR7]

It's so weird that he all of a sudden changed it this season. Odd. I mean, he's an extremely successful coach, regarded by most as the best coach in the game. Has had success for many years, and he all of a sudden just changes what has worked for him in the past. So very weird.

 

[magnifier661]

It's so weird that he all of a sudden changed it this season. Odd. I mean, he's an extremely successful coach, regarded by most as the best coach in the game. Has had success for many years, and he all of a sudden just changes what has worked for him in the past. So very weird.

Did he though? Or maybe it's something he tried because his core group has changed so drastically. I really don't know. I would trust this team with a proven winner like Pop, any day of the week and twice on Sunday. And Phil Jackson is one of the most random coaches in the game. Remember times when he wouldn't call a time-out and forced his players to play through the tough times? What other coach you know does that?

 

[magnifier661]

It's so weird that he all of a sudden changed it this season. Odd. I mean, he's an extremely successful coach, regarded by most as the best coach in the game. Has had success for many years, and he all of a sudden just changes what has worked for him in the past. So very weird.

P.S. I do believe you have a point, since Pop is the coach you would dream of having on your team, but all I'm saying is Nate is far from the quality of Pop. Also, Pop is a proven winner and Nate has been notorious for taking extra long to make a single change. Another thing about Pop that's different than Nate is normally Pop forces other teams to change their game playing the Spurs because he takes advantages of mismatches, while Nate doesn't.

If you look at the talent of this ball club with just the 3 key players: Oden, Roy and Aldridge, there are terrible mismatches for any team facing us, as long as we could utilize that talent. I just don't see Nate taking advantage. I don't see Nate making any gambles whatsoever. Sometimes the great coaches are ones that think outside the box and really milk the hot hand. Allowing Parker and Gionobli almost recklessly drive into the paint (When I use the word reckless, I mean just the speed they run in the paint), that's a ton of trust you give your player. The minute a player gets 2 turn overs, they are yanked out of the game.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

OK...it's unscientific but I just grabbed 4 games from Feb of last year...was going to do Parker and Duncan but Duncan had a DNP so I skipped him...here ya go...looks pretty rigid to me...

2/19/09 Q1 1:46 remaining Parker Out
2/21/09 Q1 2:29 remaining Parker Out
2/24/09 Q1 2:26 remaining Parker Out
2/25/09 Q1 3:09 remaining Parker Out

 

[RR7]

I'm not at all saying Nate is perfect, and I am not saying he is without his flaws. My thread wasn't started to discuss his trust in a PG running a one man break, or his utilization of his players(although I will say he's utilized Roy very well, I don't know how that can be disputed). What I was starting a thread about was the complaints about his substitution patterns, and pointing out that other coaches do this as well. Many do. Sorry, I just chose the best example, as opposed to going team by team. But most coaches have a pattern they use, especially early in a game. So it either seems to me to be an invalid complaint of Nate, or one that shouldn't be made because all coaches do it, so changing coaches won't change that.

 

[RR7]

OK...it's unscientific but I just grabbed 4 games from Feb of last year...was going to do Parker and Duncan but Duncan had a DNP so I skipped him...here ya go...looks pretty rigid to me...

2/19/09 Q1 1:46 remaining Parker Out
2/21/09 Q1 2:29 remaining Parker Out
2/24/09 Q1 2:26 remaining Parker Out
2/25/09 Q1 3:09 remaining Parker Out

I went back to their last championship seaon, 06-07. Looking at the first month of the season, Parker came out in the first with, 4:22, 3:49, 2:31, 4:09, 3:40, 3:11, 4:24, 3:00, 1:29, 1:02, 2:09, 0:00, 3:05, 1:16 and 3:59. He didn't yank him EVERY game at 4:00 on the dot. But he was fairly consistent in his subbing of Parker.

 

[magnifier661]

OK...it's unscientific but I just grabbed 4 games from Feb of last year...was going to do Parker and Duncan but Duncan had a DNP so I skipped him...here ya go...looks pretty rigid to me...

2/19/09 Q1 1:46 Parker Out
2/21/09 Q1 2:29 Parker Out
2/24/09 Q1 2:26 Parker Out
2/25/09 Q1 3:09 Parker Out

Looks pretty good. Look at the other players he subbed during those games. Pretty random huh?

 

[magnifier661]

I went back to their last championship seaon, 06-07. Looking at the first month of the season, Parker came out in the first with, 4:22, 3:49, 2:31, 4:09, 3:40, 3:11, 4:24, 3:00, 1:29, 1:02, 2:09, 0:00, 3:05, 1:16 and 3:59. He didn't yank him EVERY game at 4:00 on the dot. But he was fairly consistent in his subbing of Parker.

It's not just the star players guys. It's every player on the team, hot or not, they all come in exactly, well close to exactly each and every game. The stars are a little different. Look up the role players. The only consistency he has is leaving the stars in. Everything else is pretty random. So using Parker, Duncan or even Gionobli (During the years he started) aren't the entire story. Pops utilizes his role players differently game by game. Nate doesn't do this.

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

Looks pretty good. Look at the other players he subbed during those games. Pretty random huh?

What are you saying? I only looked at Parker. Please prove to me that he doesn't use a fairly consistent substitution pattern with his major role players.

 

[magnifier661]

8:30 PM ET, December 20, 2008 7:41 Mason out.
8:30 PM ET, December 22, 2008 4:11 Mason out.
8:30 PM ET, December 23, 2008 9:34 Mason out. 7:50 Mason back in
2:30 PM ET, December 25, 2008 1:50 Mason out.

 

[RR7]

So why is there fluctuation in the minutes of Martell, Travis and Rudy each game? 30 minutes one night, 12 another, 22, 33, 11, etc. Shouldn't their minute logs generally look pretty standard across the board, 22, 24, 21, 20, 19, 25?

 

[magnifier661]

So why is there fluctuation in the minutes of Martell, Travis and Rudy each game? 30 minutes one night, 12 another, 22, 33, 11, etc. Shouldn't their minute logs generally look pretty standard across the board, 22, 24, 21, 20, 19, 25?

They should. But look at the first half's sub patterns. They are almost mechanical straight across the board. His adjustments are made at half time.

 

[RR7]

But I thought he doesn't ever make adjustments?

 

[magnifier661]

But I thought he doesn't ever make adjustments?

No he makes adjustments alright. But usually to bring in those players that he's accustomed to. If you think Nate's a great coach, then we can agree to disagree. I think his subbing patterns, unwillingness to take a chance, and fear of turning the ball over is a detriment to the success of our ball club.

Hey if Nate is still coach and still doing what he is doing, I will still praise our beloved Blazers. I'm just pointing out how frustrated I am with those things. Can't I have my opinion?

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

They should. But look at the first half's sub patterns. They are almost mechanical straight across the board. His adjustments are made at half time.

That's because he is operating with 2 FULL units. Obviously it's really hard to compare this stuff apples to apples without a lot of work...which I'm too lazy to do. Really neither of our 4 game grabs of substitution patterns proves much of anything. I tend to believe if the rosters were switched with Nate coaching SA and Pop in Portland the substitution patterns would look similar...I would not be opposed if someone wanted to set that up for us, though!

 

[Blazer_Hippie]

No he makes adjustments alright. But usually to bring in those players that he's accustomed to. If you think Nate's a great coach, then we can agree to disagree. I think his subbing patterns, unwillingness to take a chance, and fear of turning the ball over is a detriment to the success of our ball club.

Hey if Nate is still coach and still doing what he is doing, I will still praise our beloved Blazers. I'm just pointing out how frustrated I am with those things. Can't I have my opinion?

For the record, I think Nate is a good (not great) coach.

 

[magnifier661]

That's because he is operating with 2 FULL units. Obviously it's really hard to compare this stuff apples to apples without a lot of work...which I'm too lazy to do. Really neither of our 4 game grabs of substitution patterns proves much of anything. I tend to believe if the rosters were switched with Nate coaching SA and Pop in Portland the substitution patterns would look similar...I would not be opposed if someone wanted to set that up for us, though!

Who knows really. Maybe this is a norm and I'm taking crazy pills. I ain't no B-Ball scholar. All I know is I see good talent on the bench and players playing out of position. Is it to make others happy? Are those wins really from a three guard line-up, or just bringing Miller in the starting rotation? Would the Blazers have the same record if they just replaced Miller with Blake?

I would much rather see a better utilization of our talent. Longer minutes for the big three and if someone is truly cold, please bring the hot hand in to at least change up our 4th quarter offense.

I don't know what changed from last season, but we were such a good 4th quarter team. We always had a tough time in the first half and had to battle back in the 3rd and 4th quarters. I want something in the middle. Maybe Nate needs to bring in that 4th quarter team that won so many games in the late season push. Wasn't it Roy, Fernandez, Outlaw, Aldridge and Oden? Well since Outlaw is out, who will be able to replace him?