Sam Hinkie: The anti-Olshey

[Reep]

If we make smart trades and contend, I'm sure we can get in the market for top level FAs as well.

When has that ever been true in Portland in the past? The past is the best predictor of the future.

I honestly think this team is doomed to mediocrity. The best hope I see is to trade CJ for something of real value and hope Collins develops. Even then I don't see us sniffing at the WCF. Dame is great, but he isn't enough and we don't have enough team capital to trade for fix the rest of the team. Dame's window will come and go with the wrong people around him and I think that is sad.

Some of us would rather have winning seasons and no title contention than to do a long rebuild and hope for more. I would rather do the rebuild under a different GM.

 

[hoopsjock]

Just because they drafted poorly doesn't mean it wasn't a good plan. Substitute Turner with Cousins or George (who went after him), substituted MCW with Adams or Giannis, and things start looking differently. They had a great strategy, they just chose poorly. Apart from obvious injuries, the last time we did a lottery window we did very well and probably had a team that was good enough to contend, if they hadn't fallen apart physically.

This is my problem with Hinkie. It was a law of averages. Picking in the lottery that high every year pretty much has to lead to eventually hitting on one. Just about any GM that had those picks could've done at least as good of a job as Hinkie. Olshey would absolutely build a contender with those kind of picks available to him.

 

[calvin natt]

Golden State is a major market in San Fran that draws free agents. You absolutely cannot compare Portland to GS. Yes, they did draft well, but they have also benefitted from free agency which does not happen in Portland, unless the target likes to fish.

I did not mention Porzingis, so that is a straw man. You also cannot compare ET and MCW as total no brainers in the same camp as Oden. Neither were top picks and were in a pool over other talented players.

Unless Dame can figure out a way to use his charm to draw FA to Portland, our path is through the draft and clever trades for value.

Golden State hasn't drawn free agents until about 5 years ago, because they became great. Players weren't dying to go to Golden State....for decades.

 

[illmatic99]

When has that ever been true in Portland in the past? The past is the best predictor of the future.

I honestly think this team is doomed to mediocrity. The best hope I see is to trade CJ for something of real value and hope Collins develops. Even then I don't see us sniffing at the WCF. Dame is great, but he isn't enough and we don't have enough team capital to trade for fix the rest of the team. Dame's window will come and go with the wrong people around him and I think that is sad.

Some of us would rather have winning seasons and no title contention than to do a long rebuild and hope for more. I would rather do the rebuild under a different GM.

I'm not satisfied with mediocrity either. But where we differ is that I think we can get up to contention without burning it all to the ground. Either way, I think we need a new guy to lead us. Neil is the one who put us in this mess and he's had enough chance to dig us out.

 

[Reep]

Lets say we traded Dame for #1 and drafted Ayton. Do you think that would set us on a path to contention? Wouldn't we be lucky to get someone as good as Dame? Most picks aren't. Why did the Rockets and Spurs get over 10 years to win a title and the Blazers for sure won't ever contend after 6 years of Dame? As discussed before it was Drexler's 7th year that the Blazers finally did anything in the playoffs. Jordan didn't win a title until his 7th year either.

If I had the keys to the total rebuild and I could get Ayton for Dame, then yes, I would let Dame know that we don't see it working in his window and move him to a better opportunity to win. Drafting Ayton would be a good start, as you could then let Nurkic go and you have your two young bigs to develop. You trade CJ for some other future picks or young talent and the wing and guard spots, who can defend and then you look for that key player in the draft over the next few years. I would consider trading CJ to NY for Ntilikina and #9 and change to give you more shots on goal in the guard/wing slots. You let all your bad contracts run out and then you end up with Ayton, Collins, Ntilikina and several lottery picks (Portlands and others) and be well under the salary cap--very similar to the situation that Philly is in right now.

 

[Reep]

Golden State hasn't drawn free agents until about 5 years ago, because they became great. Players weren't dying to go to Golden State....for decades.

This is true, but that was because they had no talent or rep. It takes talent, good organization and location. Portland can have all the talent and organization in the world, but still won't be a place that single, athletic multi-millionaires want to live.

 

[hoopsjock]

Neither Roy nor Oden had a clean medical history. They took them knowing (or should have known?) that they were a massive risk health-wise.

And so did Noel, Embiid, and Fultz.

 

[illmatic99]

And so did Noel, Embiid, and Fultz.

And Simmons. Even he missed his rookie year.

 

[Nikolokolus]

And so did Noel, Embiid, and Fultz.

Which is why Philly took the Casino approach of tanking for multiple years. They wanted to lose as many games as they possibly could for as long as they could so they could take as many pulls from the slot machine as possible. Even with Noel a bust, Fultz mystery meat and Embiid one bad injury away, they got a generational talent in Simmons, and only because they committed to the bit.

 

[calvin natt]

This is true, but that was because they had no talent or rep. It takes talent, good organization and location. Portland can have all the talent and organization in the world, but still won't be a place that single, athletic multi-millionaires want to live.

So it takes all 3? I just don't know if I follow that...nobody went to the Clippers forever, Golden State, NY isn't signing free agents when they have the opportunity...so is it location? Yes, its a factor, but there are a handful of game changing free agents each year, and they either go to wherever they can win a title quickest, or have some personal reason for going there. I think Portland/GMs/fans need to stop talking up the 'no one wants to come here' line, maybe we're creating a bigger problem than it needs to be.

 

[hoopsjock]

Or Simmons. Even he missed his rookie year.

I didn't include him because he got hurt after he was drafted I believe. The others all had red flags at the time of being drafted.

 

[hoopsjock]

Which is why Philly took the Casino approach of tanking for multiple years. They wanted to lose as many games as they possibly could for as long as they could so they could take as many pulls from the slot machine as possible. Even with Noel a bust, Fultz mystery meat and Embiid one bad injury away, they got a generational talent in Simmons, and only because they committed to the bit.

No, it's because they made bad picks along the way otherwise they would've been too good the year of the Simmons draft and wouldn't have gotten him. If they got the #1 pick the year before they would've drafted KAT instead of Okafor and had an even more imbalanced roster but one that would've won more than 10 games.

 

[Reep]

So it takes all 3? I just don't know if I follow that...nobody went to the Clippers forever, Golden State, NY isn't signing free agents when they have the opportunity...so is it location? Yes, its a factor, but there are a handful of game changing free agents each year, and they either go to wherever they can win a title quickest, or have some personal reason for going there. I think Portland/GMs/fans need to stop talking up the 'no one wants to come here' line, maybe we're creating a bigger problem than it needs to be.

I would argue it does. Look at the top teams. Boston, Toronto, NO, GS, Houston. I will agree that Utah is a bit of an anomaly, but they have built through the draft.

NY has the destination, but no talent. Clippers will always be the ugly stepchild of Los Angeles. If the L@kers didn't exist, the Clips would be more popular. And, the Clips have never been known as having a fabulous organization.

 

[Reep]

No, it's because they made bad picks along the way otherwise they would've been too good the year of the Simmons draft and wouldn't have gotten him. If they got the #1 pick the year before they would've drafted KAT instead of Okafor and had an even more imbalanced roster but one that would've won more than 10 games.

But, without their commitment to building through the draft, they would have neither KAT nor Simmons. Certainly there is some luck involved, but I agree that the more times you get to pull the slot machine handle, the better your odds of getting winning the jackpot.

 

[illmatic99]

I didn't include him because he got hurt after he was drafted I believe. The others all had red flags at the time of being drafted.

But that's highlighting the luck factor that we've all been harping about. The only reason they even landed Fultz is because Simmons missed a whole year and Embiid only played 31 games. And the only reason they landed Simmons is because Embiid missed his second consecutive season in 2016. And the only reason they landed Okafor is because Embiid missed his whole first year.

This kind of approach isn't really reproducible. We tank for a year, and we land a top prospect. Are we going to intentionally redshirt him so that we can tank for a second consecutive year?

 

[BBert]

... If the L@kers didn't exist ....

 

[Nikolokolus]

But that's highlighting the luck factor that we've all been harping about. The only reason they even landed Fultz is because Simmons missed a whole year and Embiid only played 31 games. And the only reason they landed Simmons is because Embiid missed his second consecutive season in 2016. And the only reason they landed Okafor is because Embiid missed his whole first year.

This kind of approach isn't really reproducible. We tank for a year, and we land a top prospect. Are we going to intentionally redshirt him so that we can tank for a second consecutive year?

If you gut your team of veterans and round out your roster with D-leaguers, you can guarantee sub 25-wins seasons, even with top-three picks that stay healthy. Where there is a will to endure the pain, there is a way.

 

[BBert]

You guys have no idea how much I appreciate this respectful, reasoned debate. It's great!

 

[BigGameDamian]

 

[BBert]

Fuck you Canzano. Just fuck you.

 

[hoopsjock]

I would argue it does. Look at the top teams. Boston, Toronto, NO, GS, Houston. I will agree that Utah is a bit of an anomaly, but they have built through the draft.

NY has the destination, but no talent. Clippers will always be the ugly stepchild of Los Angeles. If the L@kers didn't exist, the Clips would be more popular. And, the Clips have never been known as having a fabulous organization.

What's funny about Utah is that Portland could have their major pieces right now and Dame/CJ. Gobert didn't go until pick 27 by Denver and was traded to Utah for a 2nd round pick and cash. Last draft we could've just taken Mitchell or if we didn't have as good of a pick to trade up we could've still traded with Denver like they did with Utah. Ingles was a free agent so anyone could sign him.

Just an example of how you can still build a contender without the Hinkie method. We'd have Dame, CJ, Mitchell, Ingles, and Gobert at minimum with the right moves.

 

[Blazers Roy]

The crazy thing about Hinkie's strategy: Philly didn't even hit on 100% or even 80% of their attempts to get better.

-Okafor over Porzingis \ Booker\ Myles Turner\ Willie Stein.
- Carter Williams over Greek Freak\ Steven Adams.
-Nerlens Noel.
-Fultz over Tatum\ too many to name. (Even tho this one might be TBD).

We hit the MOTHERFUCKING JACKPOT with Lillard,CJ and even Nurkic , but our future is looking very... gray? when you compare it to the Sixers' future.

Hinkie was right.
If it was Neil instead of Hinkie he would just continue to build around Jrue Holiday and his injuries, overpay some veterans and guys he knew from his time in LA... then say in interviews his usual : " We can't get Free agents" \ "We don't have trade assets"\"We've developed Evan Turner into a 100million$ player" \ "It's not realistic for us to be\Do XYZ" blah blah blah etc etc.

Come to think of it, it's quite amusing to think that if he was the Sixers GM, he would still overpay for Even fucking Turner.

 

[valo36]

And on the other end of the spectrum, look at teams trying to follow Hinkie's approach: Phoenix-- no, Orlando-- not even close, SAC-- lol, Bulls-- i'd rather have our future, Hawks-- 0 building blocks yet.

Been a Magic fan ever since Shaq was ripping down goalposts in 1992. The Magic PR people knew the Magic would be horrible this season and so when they was trying to sell season tickets they leaned heavily on buying tickets means getting to watch the best superstars of other teams. Sitting through the Magic the past few seasons has been a total chore for even the most die hard of Magic fans including the people who work for the company. The tanking thing just is not working because there keeps being other teams tanking at the same time, and doing it better or playing in a better conference than the Magic. So the ping pong balls keep bouncing their way. 6 seasons of total suck and there appears to be no end in sight because they make trades like Victor Oladipo for half a season of Serge Ibaka. I would not wish this on any fanbase.

 

[andalusian]

So it was Olshey who persuaded David Stern to veto the Lakers trade? Impressive!

That was not the strategy and you know it. The strategy was / is - to have multiple assets so when an opportunity happens - he could pounce on it - and he did. I suspect that this is exactly what he did with the contracts to Moe and ML for example.

 

[BBert]

What's funny about Utah is that Portland could have their major pieces right now and Dame/CJ. Gobert didn't go until pick 27 by Denver and was traded to Utah for a 2nd round pick and cash. Last draft we could've just taken Mitchell or if we didn't have as good of a pick to trade up we could've still traded with Denver like they did with Utah. Ingles was a free agent so anyone could sign him.

Just an example of how you can still build a contender without the Hinkie method. We'd have Dame, CJ, Mitchell, Ingles, and Gobert at minimum with the right moves.

I don't remember why exactly but I honestly thought the Blazers were going to draft Gobert (maybe buy a pick? Don't remember details), at least I had hoped they would, and I was disappointed they didn't.

 

[hoopsjock]

I don't remember why exactly but I honestly thought the Blazers were going to draft Gobert (maybe buy a pick? Don't remember details), at least I had hoped they would, and I was disappointed they didn't.

I know a lot of fans, including me, wanted Gobert. Olshey has admitted he missed the boat on Gobert (as most GMs did) so it probably wasn't a move we considered.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

- Carter Williams over Greek Freak\ Steven Adams.
We hit the MOTHERFUCKING JACKPOT with Lillard,CJ

Waitaminute - you trash the Sixers for taking ROY Michael Carter-Williams over Giannis when we took CJ over Giannis and it's the "jackpot"? Sixers could probably have flipped MCW for a lottery pick if they'd done it soon enough.

Also: can't blame Hinkie for trading up for Fultz instead of staying put for Donovan Mitchell - he'd been fired long since.

 

[Nikolokolus]

The crazy thing about Hinkie's strategy: Philly didn't even hit on 100% or even 80% of their attempts to get better.

-Okafor over Porzingis \ Booker\ Myles Turner\ Willie Stein.
- Carter Williams over Greek Freak\ Steven Adams.
-Nerlens Noel.
-Fultz over Tatum\ too many to name. (Even tho this one might be TBD).

We hit the MOTHERFUCKING JACKPOT with Lillard,CJ and even Nurkic , but our future is looking very... gray? when you compare it to the Sixers' future.

Hinkie was right.
If it was Neil instead of Hinkie he would just continue to build around Jrue Holiday and his injuries, overpay some veterans and guys he knew from his time in LA... then say in interviews his usual : " We can't get Free agents" \ "We don't have trade assets"\"We've developed Evan Turner into a 100million$ player" \ "It's not realistic for us to be\Do XYZ" blah blah blah etc etc.

Come to think of it, it's quite amusing to think that if he was the Sixers GM, he would still overpay for Even fucking Turner.

Of course he didn't hit on 100% or 80%. He fully understood that the hit-rate was something closer to 50%, which is why he kept trying to take extra pulls from the slot machine.

 

[BonesJones]

Giving away top 5 picks for nothing isn’t exactly signifying great drafting, imo. So is the one that barely played this year. That would be a number of wasted picks.

They didn’t draft well. They just consistently sucked long enough and there is still a looooong way to go before we can even say they are a contender.

They also have been somewhat lucky as another poster has pointed out; but luck is created... by tanking.

GSW drafted well, imo. Not the Sixers.

So they didn't draft well and it still succeeded. Hmm...

 

[BonesJones]

If that were true, we'd have three championships and Greg Oden three finals MVPs.

No, if we weren't extremely unlucky then that'd be the case. We didn't need luck for that.