Should the Blazers Even Want Their First-round Pick?

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Harry's Raincoat said:
Back to the first question........

Yes, ideally you'd want the team to get its own draft choice under #15 (non-playoffs). Contract is long and cheap.
But, we have 6 rookies on the roster now. I think we can do just as well with smaller contract FA's this summer to fill in gaps.
Olshey is a salesman - to agents and players - and will get us opportunities with players like Hibbert, Crawford, etc. going forward. We'll shoot high first though.
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Counterpoint is that an extra $2m-ish could make a different when you're closing a deal.
 
PapaG said:
Counterpoint is that an extra $2m-ish could make a different when you're closing a deal.
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It definitely could ... Hopefully Olshey guesses correctly.
 
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PapaG said:
Counterpoint is that an extra $2m-ish could make a different when you're closing a deal.
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I'm more with Papa on this one. I've been wondering this for some time. If it's a weak pick, I think you go through the workouts, see if there's anyone that is going to make an impact on your club in the next season or two, and if not, then you consider passing the pick to Charlotte to complete the deal.

This is a weak draft. For those saying we could have a [pick in the range of #18 in next year's draft.... it's too early to know anything about next. If I don't see anything in this year's draft I like, then let the pick go, and use that extra space for free agency. Considering this year's draft is supposed to be one of the weakest drafts in years, who's to say a #18 pick in next year's draft wouldn't be better?

If Olshey doesn't believe a player in this year's draft is going to help us out, I think you really do have to weigh the option of letting Charlotte have the pick. Not saying I definitely let it go, but you certainly have to strongly consider it.
 
BLAZINGGIANTS said:
I'm more with Papa on this one. I've been wondering this for some time. If it's a weak pick, I think you go through the workouts, see if there's anyone that is going to make an impact on your club in the next season or two, and if not, then you consider passing the pick to Charlotte to complete the deal.

This is a weak draft. For those saying we could have a [pick in the range of #18 in next year's draft.... it's too early to know anything about next. If I don't see anything in this year's draft I like, then let the pick go, and use that extra space for free agency. Considering this year's draft is supposed to be one of the weakest drafts in years, who's to say a #18 pick in next year's draft wouldn't be better?

If Olshey doesn't believe a player in this year's draft is going to help us out, I think you really do have to weigh the option of letting Charlotte have the pick. Not saying I definitely let it go, but you certainly have to strongly consider it.
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To be fair, I'm fine either way at this point. I just hadn't heard this discussed on the radio or on the forum, and thought it would actually be a good topic to ponder, because it's something that doesn't come up very often for a franchise. Young, decent, need to get better, and has some cap space, but could use more. Or, stay young and keep the pick?
 
Let's say the Blazers get to keep their pick, I wonder what the rules are on relaxing the protection on the pick and just letting Charlotte have it? Is that something they can do unilaterally or does it have to be negotiated with Charlotte ... is it even possible?
 
Wow, glad I didn't review the history of the #6 pick very closely before the draft. I know we're seeing a very impressive rookie season from Lillard - I've seen various mentions of his statistical combos that are in rare company. Reviewing that list of #6's, aside from Brandon Roy (who's career, as we know to well, was derailed by injuries).... Lillard could go down as the best #6 pick since Bird was drafted in 1978.

I'm not one to get overexcited about a player's ultimate potential, and I'm not doing that here, either. Going through the list, there are some solid players, guys that have made some all-star games, guys who stuck around for years.... But there's a lot of busts in there too. A lot of disappointments.

Glad to see Lillard off to his start. I hope he can continue doing what he has been and continue to grow as he learns the NBA game.
 
Folks keep repeating this line:

"2013 is a Weak draft".

That is a mischaracterization of the general consensus regarding this draft.

This draft is considerered weak at the top. There are few "blue chippers" or sure-thing franchise players that the scouts have identified. However, it is considerered relatively deep in players likely to stick in the NBA.

If you "win" the lottery this year and have a top 3 pick, this is considered a "weak draft".

If you are in the lottery and have a pick 4 through 10 to 15, you should have a decent shot at nabbing a contributor.

How that effects the Blazers:

In a year where the draft is short of sure stars, but runs fairly deep, a pick at 10 or 11 in this years draft is better than having a pick at 18 to 20 one year later.

I would guess that picks around 20 are 2 to 3 times less likely to have an average or better NBA career than picks around 10.

This team needs a large infusion of talent. Waiting another year does not help. Dropping down the draft board a year later helps even less.

The team needs a lottery pick this summer AND it needs to bring in some fine talent with its big cap space AND it needs to bring in some vet contributors to fill out the end of the bench. There are too many holes to fill to dismiss something as potentially valuable as a lottery pick as not important.
 
Masbee said:
Folks keep repeating this line:

"2013 is a Weak draft".

That is a mischaracterization of the general consensus regarding this draft.

This draft is considerered weak at the top. There are few "blue chippers" or sure-thing franchise players that the scouts have identified. However, it is considerered relatively deep in players likely to stick in the NBA.

If you "win" the lottery this year and have a top 3 pick, this is considered a "weak draft".

If you are in the lottery and have a pick 4 through 10 to 15, you should have a decent shot at nabbing a contributor.

How that effects the Blazers:

In a year where the draft is short of sure stars, but runs fairly deep, a pick at 10 or 11 in this years draft is better than having a pick at 18 to 20 one year later.

I would guess that picks around 20 are 2 to 3 times less likely to have an average or better NBA career than picks around 10.

This team needs a large infusion of talent. Waiting another year does not help. Dropping down the draft board a year later helps even less.

The team needs a lottery pick this summer AND it needs to bring in some fine talent with its big cap space AND it needs to bring in some vet contributors to fill out the end of the bench. There are too many holes to fill to dismiss something as potentially valuable as a lottery pick as not important.
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^This
 
If you need talent, go get it on the Free Agent market. Sure, stars may not come here but talented journey guys might..guys like Wes Matthews, etc. Its a lot more of a sure thing than the draft. We need some veterans to mix in, its been Olshey's MO in building the clippers...get a great bench with some vets after having a decent starting 5. We have cap room and a glut of mediocre young guys on cheap contracts....leverage a few of them into a trade. That's really the best way.

some people just love the "experience" of the draft and predicting and "scouting" college talent thinking they'll be hot shit, but in actually when building a team, its not the place to find reliable role players. for the most part you'll end up with basically guys like on our bench...young guys with some potential but suck for a few years.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
If you need talent, go get it on the Free Agent market. Sure, stars may not come here but talented journey guys might..guys like Wes Matthews, etc. Its a lot more of a sure thing than the draft. We need some veterans to mix in, its been Olshey's MO in building the clippers...get a great bench with some vets after having a decent starting 5. We have cap room and a glut of mediocre young guys on cheap contracts....leverage a few of them into a trade. That's really the best way.

some people just love the "experience" of the draft and predicting and "scouting" college talent thinking they'll be hot shit, but in actually when building a team, its not the place to find reliable role players. for the most part you'll end up with basically guys like on our bench...young guys with some potential but suck for a few years.
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Al-Faraouq Aminu, Eric Bledsoe, DeAndre Jordan. All guys Olshey drafted or traded for the draft rights to. All of those guys would either be our best bench guy or a starter on our team.
 
We're talking about one draft pick drafted in the lottery, not filling out the bench with multiple first round picks. Absolutely they'll need to get some veteran journeymen and I have no doubt they will, but they also need to keep a few guys in the development pipeline with the near imminent departures of Babbitt, Williams, Smith. The only youngish players left being Claver, Leonard and Lillard.

I tend to look at the player we pick as completely liquid; somebody that can be used in a trade next year if needed, not just somebody we should count on becoming a big time player on this team. Ultimately just another asset during a time when the Blazers are going to have maximum roster flexibility for potentially a few years.
 
Masbee said:
Folks keep repeating this line:

"2013 is a Weak draft".

That is a mischaracterization of the general consensus regarding this draft.

This draft is considerered weak at the top. There are few "blue chippers" or sure-thing franchise players that the scouts have identified. However, it is considerered relatively deep in players likely to stick in the NBA.

If you "win" the lottery this year and have a top 3 pick, this is considered a "weak draft".

If you are in the lottery and have a pick 4 through 10 to 15, you should have a decent shot at nabbing a contributor.

How that effects the Blazers:

In a year where the draft is short of sure stars, but runs fairly deep, a pick at 10 or 11 in this years draft is better than having a pick at 18 to 20 one year later.

I would guess that picks around 20 are 2 to 3 times less likely to have an average or better NBA career than picks around 10.

This team needs a large infusion of talent. Waiting another year does not help. Dropping down the draft board a year later helps even less.

The team needs a lottery pick this summer AND it needs to bring in some fine talent with its big cap space AND it needs to bring in some vet contributors to fill out the end of the bench. There are too many holes to fill to dismiss something as potentially valuable as a lottery pick as not important.
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Masbee, you should come by more often.

:cheers:
 
KeepOnRollin said:
Al-Faraouq Aminu, Eric Bledsoe, DeAndre Jordan. All guys Olshey drafted or traded for the draft rights to. All of those guys would either be our best bench guy or a starter on our team.
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only one is a lottery pick and he isn't on the team anymore. Bledsoe was the 18th pick and Jordan, arguably the best of the 3, was a 2nd rounder.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
only one is a lottery pick and he isn't on the team anymore. Bledsoe was the 18th pick and Jordan, arguably the best of the 3, was a 2nd rounder.
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I think we've moved on from historic trends and moved on to Olshey's eye for talent.
 
Masbee said:
Folks keep repeating this line:

"2013 is a Weak draft".

That is a mischaracterization of the general consensus regarding this draft.

This draft is considerered weak at the top. There are few "blue chippers" or sure-thing franchise players that the scouts have identified. However, it is considerered relatively deep in players likely to stick in the NBA.

If you "win" the lottery this year and have a top 3 pick, this is considered a "weak draft".

If you are in the lottery and have a pick 4 through 10 to 15, you should have a decent shot at nabbing a contributor.

How that effects the Blazers:

In a year where the draft is short of sure stars, but runs fairly deep, a pick at 10 or 11 in this years draft is better than having a pick at 18 to 20 one year later.

I would guess that picks around 20 are 2 to 3 times less likely to have an average or better NBA career than picks around 10.

This team needs a large infusion of talent. Waiting another year does not help. Dropping down the draft board a year later helps even less.

The team needs a lottery pick this summer AND it needs to bring in some fine talent with its big cap space AND it needs to bring in some vet contributors to fill out the end of the bench. There are too many holes to fill to dismiss something as potentially valuable as a lottery pick as not important.
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I haven't paid much attention to college ball/the draft this year. I usually am far more into it. So, this question is legit, as I really don't know:

But where are you seeing that it's a "deep" draft?

I mean, everything I've seen on the draft (and again, truly, I admit I haven't done much research this year) is that there are more "definite" guys at the top (well, top-3), and then there's a lot of guys on-par with each other, but generally nothing great. Everyone was saying last year's draft was weak, which it was in the sense there was one guy everyone had as the consensus #1. But then there was a lot of quality behind that. And the few things I have read have called this upcoming draft weaker, and one of the weakest drafts in recent history (I dunno about this, as we've had some bad ones).

So, honestly, please do enlighten me. I am really interested, as I just haven't had a ton of time to look into this draft. So, this is my cheat and I'll let others compile the evidence/research (yeah, just call me HCP).
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
If you need talent, go get it on the Free Agent market.
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We say this every year and every year we are spurned or the other team matches. Matthews is our only decent free agent signing in a long time and the only reason we got him is because we front loaded his contract and the Jazz were tied up and couldn't afford him. Those type situations don't come along often.

Remember the RLEC and how we were certain we could over pay for someone if need be. That really worked out great. This is small market ball, you build through the draft and trades.
 
MickZagger said:
We say this every year and every year we are spurned or the other team matches. Matthews is our only decent free agent signing in a long time and the only reason we got him is because we front loaded his contract and the Jazz were tied up and couldn't afford him. Those type situations don't come along often.

Remember the RLEC and how we were certain we could over pay for someone if need be. That really worked out great. This is small market ball, you build through the draft and trades.
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Andre Miller was an OK FA signing. Didn't get the Blazers over the hump, but ended up OK in terms of being on a playoff team.

Hickson has been a solid FA signing as well. The Blazers haven't had much cap space to sign a FA since the Miller signing, FWIW.
 
MickZagger said:
We say this every year and every year we are spurned or the other team matches. Matthews is our only decent free agent signing in a long time and the only reason we got him is because we front loaded his contract and the Jazz were tied up and couldn't afford him. Those type situations don't come along often.

Remember the RLEC and how we were certain we could over pay for someone if need be. That really worked out great. This is small market ball, you build through the draft and trades.
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RLEC was a victim of imaginary cap space.
 
Not a big deal if we lose the pick. Would rather give Olshey as much ammo as possible going into this offseason though.

If he thinks cap space would be better than the pick, we could probably trade it to Charlotte to end our obligation and get considerations back. Taking Freeland's contract maybe?
 
BLAZINGGIANTS said:
I haven't paid much attention to college ball/the draft this year. I usually am far more into it. So, this question is legit, as I really don't know:

But where are you seeing that it's a "deep" draft?

I mean, everything I've seen on the draft (and again, truly, I admit I haven't done much research this year) is that there are more "definite" guys at the top (well, top-3), and then there's a lot of guys on-par with each other, but generally nothing great. Everyone was saying last year's draft was weak, which it was in the sense there was one guy everyone had as the consensus #1. But then there was a lot of quality behind that. And the few things I have read have called this upcoming draft weaker, and one of the weakest drafts in recent history (I dunno about this, as we've had some bad ones).

So, honestly, please do enlighten me. I am really interested, as I just haven't had a ton of time to look into this draft. So, this is my cheat and I'll let others compile the evidence/research (yeah, just call me HCP).
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I said "relatively" deep.

I didn't mean it was a DEEEEEP draft, ie, with top tier talent spilling all the way down to the bottom of the lottery. Sorry if it came across that way.

What I meant was that this looks to be a pretty average draft in many respects, with the exception of a lack of grade A prime quality at the top.

There are quotes from front office people in lottery teams that are preparing to try to trade OUT of the top 5 this year (of course depending on trades, workouts, etc. that may change plans and minds, but that gives you the idea that the top is the part of this draft that is considered weak).

For some reason I am unable to copy/paste anything into sportstwo right now. So you will have to go to the sports sites and draft sites and read the articles yourself.

There is a good overview on dimemag.com "tracking this years draft class".
 
Masbee said:
I said "relatively" deep.

I didn't mean it was a DEEEEEP draft, ie, with top tier talent spilling all the way down to the bottom of the lottery. Sorry if it came across that way.

What I meant was that this looks to be a pretty average draft in many respects, with the exception of a lack of grade A prime quality at the top.

There are quotes from front office people in lottery teams that are preparing to try to trade OUT of the top 5 this year (of course depending on trades, workouts, etc. that may change plans and minds, but that gives you the idea that the top is the part of this draft that is considered weak).

For some reason I am unable to copy/paste anything into sportstwo right now. So you will have to go to the sports sites and draft sites and read the articles yourself.

There is a good overview on dimemag.com "tracking this years draft class".
Click to expand...

Can you give us some of these quotes from these front office types? Just curious.
 
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