So If Memphis takes Rubio, is Conley available again?

[Nikolokolus]

This is exactly right. Memphis is only at a disadvantage if they are dealing with one potential trade partner and have to make a deal. Even if they must trade one of Conley or Rubio (which they don't, this off-season), if multiple teams are interested, Memphis is no longer in a weak position. As long as the most recent offer is below "fair value," another team will have motivation to out-bid. This dynamic will drive the ultimate, winning trade offer up to around "fair value."

Of course, that's true of an open auction, where all bids are known. This is a closed auction, where only Memphis will really know all the bids, so disinformation would also change the dynamic.

Right, the "closed auction" where nobody else can see what competitors are offering puts Memphis at an ever greater advantage. GMs after Conley will be hearing all sorts of chatter and rumors about so-and-so going after Conley and upping the ante; the pressure must get pretty strong to overbid.

 

[Nikolokolus]

According to Chad Ford, Dejuan Blair is 6'10".

He must play hoops in a pair of these:

 

[Sheldon Shape]

If teams give Memphis shitty offers for Conley they'll just take him off the table and roll with a fantastic 1-2 punch of he and Rubio for as long as they need to. It's all about supply and demand; there are multiple teams competing to offer something they feel will pique Memphis' interest -- those suitors are competing with each other like they're at an auction, whomever offers the best deal presumably will get him (unless they pull another Kwame for Pau).

I don't think anyone is suggesting offering them a shitty deal. In fact, if it was me I would give them pretty much anything they wanted outside of Batum, Rudy, and the big 3. We have enough depth to consolidate and use our cap space to sign a vet SF to start for us. I think that when you can acquire an up and coming PG for spare parts like Outlaw and Bayless then you do so because I think Mike is going to really blow up. I'll give them Travis, Bayless, and two of our second round picks, and Sergio if I needed to. They'll trade Conley if they take Rubio or vice versa.

 

[Minstrel]

Right, the "closed auction" where nobody else can see what competitors are offering puts Memphis at an ever greater advantage. GMs after Conley will be hearing all sorts of chatter and rumors about so-and-so going after Conley and upping the ante; the pressure must get pretty strong to overbid.

Yeah, I agree. I thought about adding that that works to Memphis' benefit, too, but I wasn't sure I could illustrate that conclusively. I'd argue the same as you, that Memphis can manage perceptions of where the bidding is...but I imagine someone could argue that teams will hold their own bidding to avoid the embarrassment/problem of "bidding against themselves."

 

[oldguy]

I don't think anyone is suggesting offering them a shitty deal. In fact, if it was me I would give them pretty much anything they wanted outside of Batum, Rudy, and the big 3. We have enough depth to consolidate and use our cap space to sign a vet SF to start for us. I think that when you can acquire an up and coming PG for spare parts like Outlaw and Bayless then you do so because I think Mike is going to really blow up. I'll give them Travis, Bayless, and two of our second round picks, and Sergio if I needed to. They'll trade Conley if they take Rubio or vice versa.

No Joel!

 

[Dufferduck]

KP made mention that this is Greg's "Contract" year today on The FAN. I was kinda surprised and then the more I thought about it, the more it makes sense. Face it, Greg is not in love with Portland. Anyone who listened to Greg's interview with the Indiana radio station could tell, Greg seemed REALLY happy and content being with family, etc. He then mentions going to OSU for classes and that MCjr will be there .

Since this is Greg's contract year I'm sure KP wants to make the big guy happy. I think he knows that this team will only go as far as Greg will take them. He gave up Durrant and I'm sure he feels a lot of pressure with the pick of Greg. So, why all the rumors for MCjr in the last 12-16 months ? I think KP knows he has to get Greg's head straight and bringing in MCjr is about the only thing he can do.

I think KP lucked out again today with the draft lottery. Nobody knows for sure where KP and C. Wallace relationship is after the Miles fiasco. I do know that MC SR is the agent for both Greg and Mike. I think with today's devolpment's getting MCjr became a bit easier. I do think his price tag has gone up obviously with his play at the end of this year. This might be KP's last chance to get MCjr. I'm sure he has already been on the phone with SR to try and swing a deal Memphis.

So what does Mempis want ? If MCjr is a starting PG for the next 10 years, then I think we give them what they need. Outlaw ? Tak'em, Blake ? We could sign Miller. Bayless ? Hot Head who has no perimter game.

As much as I wanted Baron Davis I think for the long term future MCjr might be the answer. I think getting him got easier today. I really like his quickness. His shooting really improved last year. Defense ? I guess we will never know, but with him and Greg having played so much together It can only be a plus.

Bottom line, I think KP can kill two birds with a stone here. Make Greg happy and get a quality PG for the future.

Conley and Miller would be a HUGE upgrade over what we had this year. Yes, we still need a Vet PG. Not sure Miller would sign here so I guess we would have to retain Blake.

Gotta keep the big fella happy.

 

[RoyToy]

Where is that Indiana radio link?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Where is that Indiana radio link?

Yeah I'd like to listen with my own ears before making any kind of assumptions.

Edit: I think i found it.
http://www.indycornrows.com/2009/5/18/879559/greg-oden-on-jmv

 

[RoyToy]

After listening to the interview I didn't really get the impression Greg dreads being here. Overall it seems like his level of play is what bums him out the most, which is obviously understandable.

Once Greg gets it going and the fans are all over him again 100%(it's scary close to 50-50 right now), he'll be back to his normal self.

 

[Nikolokolus]

KP made mention that this is Greg's "Contract" year today on The FAN. I was kinda surprised and then the more I thought about it, the more it makes sense. Face it, Greg is not in love with Portland. Anyone who listened to Greg's interview with the Indiana radio station could tell, Greg seemed REALLY happy and content being with family, etc. He then mentions going to OSU for classes and that MCjr will be there .

OK, I just listened to the interview and I have to ask where you come up with some of your conclusions ... I'm not getting it.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Let's look at this from Memphis' point of view:

In their starting 5, they have lotto picks at PG, SG & SF, and they're firmly committed to Gasol at C. At PF, they have Darrell Arthur and Hakim Warrick (Eeesh)--this is the main hole they should be looking to fill this offseason (along with depth).

If they were to draft Rubio and deal Conley, the most sensible deal for them will return a starting PF, something we can't give them.

Memphis would be much better off keeping Conley, swapping picks with Sacramento, and taking Hill at #4 to be their PF for the next several years than making any deal that we could offer.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Let's look at this from Memphis' point of view:

In their starting 5, they have lotto picks at PG, SG & SF, and they're firmly committed to Gasol at C. At PF, they have Darrell Arthur and Hakim Warrick (Eeesh)--this is the main hole they should be looking to fill this offseason (along with depth).

If they were to draft Rubio and deal Conley, the most sensible deal for them will return a starting PF, something we can't give them.

Memphis would be much better off keeping Conley, swapping picks with Sacramento, and taking Hill at #4 to be their PF for the next several years than making any deal that we could offer.

I agree with this, but perhaps some kind of three way deal could be worked out ... probably a long shot though.

 

[Samuel]

Let's look at this from Memphis' point of view:

In their starting 5, they have lotto picks at PG, SG & SF, and they're firmly committed to Gasol at C. At PF, they have Darrell Arthur and Hakim Warrick (Eeesh)--this is the main hole they should be looking to fill this offseason (along with depth).

If they were to draft Rubio and deal Conley, the most sensible deal for them will return a starting PF, something we can't give them.

Memphis would be much better off keeping Conley, swapping picks with Sacramento, and taking Hill at #4 to be their PF for the next several years than making any deal that we could offer.

Wallace is probably from the BPA school of thought--especially in a weak draft. He's probably more worried about picking a good player than filling holes at this point.

 

[illmatic99]

Memphis would be much better off keeping Conley, swapping picks with Sacramento, and taking Hill at #4 to be their PF for the next several years than making any deal that we could offer.

The question is, do you really think Hill is a legit starting PF in the NBA?

I don't.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Wallace is probably from the BPA school of thought--especially in a weak draft. He's probably more worried about picking a good player than filling holes at this point.

Very possible, but that doesn't change the main premise that MEM probably wants what we can't give. If they keep the pick and draft Rubio, they're still likely to trade one of their stud PG's for something a little more substantial than Outlaw & Bayless.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

The question is, do you really think Hill is a legit starting PF in the NBA?

I don't.

Perhaps not, but still more attractive than Outlaw. Rubio for David Lee and #8 sure wouldn't shock me.

 

[illmatic99]

Very possible, but that doesn't change the main premise that MEM probably wants what we can't give. If they keep the pick and draft Rubio, they're still likely to trade one of their stud PG's for something a little more substantial than Outlaw & Bayless.

We can give them capspace by absorbing salary (Jaric, Buckner), while Sac probably can't (or won't). With more salary flexibility, they can go after a guy like Boozer.

A lineup of Rubio/Mayo/Gay/Boozer/Gasol looks pretty decent actually.

 

[Dufferduck]

OK, I just listened to the interview and I have to ask where you come up with some of your conclusions ... I'm not getting it.

I remember hearing him on 95.5. My GF did not want to listen to him being interviewed. She said she would try, she hates sports. Anyway, I think it was Canzano is talking to Greg and I remember making the comment to my GF " This guy sounds so depressing I will turn it off " . Portland Picked Greg, Greg Didn't Portland.

When they ask him what was his best years playing he says OSU and HS. That's fine, I can understand playing with friends. I think in the interview he hates the pressure of the NBA and maybe Portland in particular. How many times does Greg laugh in this interview ?? Way more than his Portland radio interview. The Game might still have it on their website, It was right before the season started. Canzano was practically kissing his ass to make him laugh. Finally Canzano gives up and says something like Greg sounds so depressed it was bad radio.

True story.

On a side note, my Sis works at the Swoosh and has told me some things that make me feel he would rather play in a Diverse city. Take it FWIW.

 

[Minstrel]

I remember hearing him on 95.5. My GF did not want to listen to him being interviewed. She said she would try, she hates sports. Anyway, I think it was Canzano is talking to Greg and I remember making the comment to my GF " This guy sounds so depressing I will turn it off " . Portland Picked Greg, Greg Didn't Portland.

When they ask him what was his best years playing he says OSU and HS. That's fine, I can understand playing with friends. I think in the interview he hates the pressure of the NBA and maybe Portland in particular. How many times does Greg laugh in this interview ?? Way more than his Portland radio interview. The Game might still have it on their website, It was right before the season started. Canzano was practically kissing his ass to make him laugh. Finally Canzano gives up and says something like Greg sounds so depressed it was bad radio.

True story.

Odd story. So because he was downbeat in an interview after less than one season playing for Portland, he doesn't want to be in Portland? I don't think that's solid evidence for your conclusion.

 

[Dufferduck]

Odd story. So because he was downbeat in an interview after less than one season playing for Portland, he doesn't want to be in Portland? I don't think that's solid evidence for your conclusion.

Well, seeing three Physc Dr's in a year isn't what I would call normal. That was part of my conclusion. I think a 21 year old Millionare shouldn't have to many worries in his life. Something happened, Could you see Greg do the ESPY's now, like he did two years ago ?

I'm just advocating bringing in his best friend to make him feel like he did when he was in HS and College.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I haven't been on the Oden bandwagon.

If I were the GM I'd try like hell to ship Greg to L.A. for Blake Griffen.

 

[Minstrel]

Well, seeing three Physc Dr's in a year isn't what I would call normal. That was part of my conclusion. I think a 21 year old Millionare shouldn't have to many worries in his life. Something happened

I don't think he has worries about his long-term future. He's under a lot of scrutiny and pressure, locally and nationwide. He's being criticized by a lot of people. I don't think anything particular happened, it seems pretty natural that he'd be a little downcast at being perceived a disappointment by a lot of people.

Portland will be the team from whom he can receive the most money when he becomes a free agent. It would take a pretty serious dislike of the city to go elsewhere for less money. I don't see any evidence that he has a specific dislike for Portland.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Btw, I don't think it's the city of Portland, it's the pressure of being the #1 overall pick and due to injury, he looks like a 3rd stringer on a good team.

 

[Minstrel]

I haven't been on the Oden bandwagon.

I refuse to believe this.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

It's true.

His pre-draft physical scared me away. From one leg being shorter than the other by 1/2" inch to the bulging disc in his back. Seeing him play, pre-injury, in the Summer League didn't help his case, either. He seemed injury prone to the tenth power. Unfortunately, I was right.

Does anyone remember what he put up in those 3 Summer League games? He was ATROCIOUS on both ends of the court. His numbers were on par, if not worse, than what Ha Seung-Jin put up during Summer League.

Being able to get Blake for Greg is a pipe dream. Griff is a beast, and at 6'10.5" in shoes he can play center full time in this league.

 

[Minstrel]

It's true.

But you've been so patient until now. If you were never on the bandwagon, why weren't you blasting him all season as a bust?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I blasted Greg plenty of times this season.

You don't remember me calling him Jamaal Magloire - the Miami version?

 

[rocketeer]

Btw, I don't think it's the city of Portland, it's the pressure of being the #1 overall pick and due to injury, he looks like a 3rd stringer on a good team.

how many teams have 3rd stringers with a PER over 18?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I don't put too much stock in that.

Per all you want, his foul rate negates that, IMO. He was a foul machine and couldn't score to save his life. He also collected the most rim checks on dunk attempts I've seen in a long time.

3.9 Fouls per game in 21 min. of play...

 

[rocketeer]

I don't put too much stock in that.

Per all you want, his foul rate negates that, IMO. He was a foul machine and couldn't score to save his life. He also collected the most rim checks on dunk attempts I've seen in a long time.

3.9 Fouls per game in 21 min. of play...

his foul rate doesn't negate anything. oden proved to be a very effective player when he was on the court. yes, foul trouble kept him from being on the court for huge minutes, but good production for 20 minutes a game isn't something to expect from a 3rd stringer.

funny that someone who "couldn't score to save his life" was able to score 9 points a game in a little over 20 minutes while also being extremely efficient, drawing a bunch of fouls, and doing so only being assisted on 50% of his baskets.