So which team does Ezeli end up with, and what do we have to add?

[PtldPlatypus]

Brooklyn isn't going to pay a second-round pick for nothing (if they don't reach the contract floor, they just pay the difference to their players--preferable to giving it to a random outside player who won't provide them any on-court value).

We would need to package the second-rounder to make it worth Brooklyn's while to not just pay the penalty and give the money to their players.

You're understating or underestimating the value of an Ezeli trade to Brooklyn or any other team under the salary floor.

As previously stated, if a team is 7.5M under the floor at the end of the season, they pay that 7.5M out to their existing players. However, if they trade for Ezeli, his full 7.4M season salary is added to their team salary calculation, even though they're only responsible for the prorated portion of it (approx 2.5M). And since he hasn't played, insurance is covering 80% of that salary.

So long story short, Brooklyn or Philly or Denver would save about $6M of actual cash outlay (7.5M - 500K - 1M) by trading for Ezeli.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Thanks. And season would be July 1st to June 30th correct? That is full year. I didn't say Calendar year (as in Jan 1st to Dec 31st).

I'm not exactly sure on the end date, but I believe the season officially ends once the last game of the finals is over. So, that would mean the $3.6 million for the 2017-18 season would be available in time for draft day deals.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

And since he hasn't played, insurance is covering 80% of that salary.

Do you know this for a fact? I know it's fairly standard practice for teams to take out insurance on their players' contracts, but given Ezeli's history, that may not have been a viable option. I did a quick google search and didn't find anything. If you have a link, please share it.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

However, if they trade for Ezeli, his full 7.4M season salary is added to their team salary calculation, even though they're only responsible for the prorated portion of it (approx 2.5M). And since he hasn't played, insurance is covering 80% of that salary.

Ah, that's a good point. I forgot that they'd only have to pay his prorated salary while getting "credit" for his full-season salary.

 

[B-Roy]

Your math is off and you assume there will be no other trades between now and the last game of the 2017-18 season.

The season isn't half over, it's 54/82 (65.9%) over. Ezeli's contract this year is $7.4 million. So, he's owned $2.52 million this season - not ~$4 million, and it goes down by $90,000 per game. So, the maximum savings of dumping Ezeli will be below $5 million - and that assumes no other trades to get us below the luxury tax threshold between now and the 2018 trade deadline. If we are below the tax threshold, the total mount Ezeli would cost us is below $3.5 million. All this assumes insurance is not paying any of Ezeli's contract. If the Blazers were able to purchase insurance, this all becomes moot.

Yes, it is under the assumption that there will be no other trades between now and the end of the season, and the assumption that there is no insurance. Stein reported that the Blazers were looking to attach some sort of compensation in order to move him, not improbable, but ditching him with a second would probably only happen if no other opportunities pop up between now and 2/23.

Still, there is real cash savings involved, and if you can assume you can purchase another second rounder for less than the total cash allowed to be sent in a year ($3M), then you are still saving money by packaging Ezeli away with a second.

 

[Boob-No-More]

BTW, I think the real incentive here to move Ezeli is not the actual cost savings of unloading him, I think it's the fact that even though only the first $1 million of his 2017-18 contract is guaranteed, dumping him get's us $1 million closer to getting below the luxury tax threshold for next season. Before the Plumlee/Nurkic trade, we were only $29K below the threshold this season. They cut it really close this year, and because the repeater penalties are so onerous, I think Neil and Paul will do everything they can to squeak under the limit whenever possible.

Based on the latest estimates, after the Nurkic trade, we'd need to shave about $16.8 million to get under the estimated 2017-18 luxury tax threshold. Keeping Ezeli and waiving him gets that number down to about $10.1 million. Trading him gets that down to $9.1 million. Keep in mind, Meyers Leonard ($9,904,494) and Maurice Harkless ($9,662,921) will both make more than $9.1 million, but less than $10.1 million in 2017-18. That extra million is savings could be the difference between dumping one player and dumping two.

BNM

 

[e_blazer]

Your math is off and you assume there will be no other trades between now and the last game of the 2017-18 season.

The season isn't half over, it's 54/82 (65.9%) over. Ezeli's contract this year is $7.4 million. So, he's owned $2.52 million this season - not ~$4 million, and it goes down by $90,000 per game. So, the maximum savings of dumping Ezeli will be below $5 million - and that assumes no other trades to get us below the luxury tax threshold between now and the 2018 trade deadline. If we are below the tax threshold, the total mount Ezeli would cost us is below $3.5 million. All this assumes insurance is not paying any of Ezeli's contract. If the Blazers were able to purchase insurance, this all becomes moot.

Still, if they don't think he'll ever play again, there could be incentive to move him, but it's not as great as your numbers would indicate.

I'm actually surprised they didn't find a way to include him in the DEN trade, as DEN is one of the teams far enough below the salary floor to absorb Ezeli's contract. Which would seem to indicate they aren't that desperate to move him.

Of course, if they are still talking to PHI about Okafor, Ezeli could be part of that deal as well since PHI is one of the other teams sufficiently below the cap floor to absorb Ezeli's contract.

BNM

If NO could work Ezeli plus a couple of picks for Okafor, he and Nurkic would be quite a center rotation. That would be, overall, Mase plus a first and a second for those two guys.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yes, it is under the assumption that there will be no other trades between now and the end of the season, and the assumption that there is no insurance. Stein reported that the Blazers were looking to attach some sort of compensation in order to move him, not improbable, but ditching him with a second would probably only happen if no other opportunities pop up between now and 2/23.

Still, there is real cash savings involved, and if you can assume you can purchase another second rounder for less than the total cash allowed to be sent in a year ($3M), then you are still saving money by packaging Ezeli away with a second.

We're already below the luxury tax threshold for this season. We'd have until the last day of the 2017-18 season to make any trades necessary to get below the tax threshold for next season.

If we move Ezeli now, it will be with something with very marginal value attached, like a top 55 protected 2nd round pick, or conditional swapping of second round picks.

I don't really think it's about saving $3.5 - $5 million of Paul Allen's money. See my previous post. I think it's about getting that $1 million in guaranteed salary off the books. It's only $1 million, but it gets us $1 million closer to being under the luxury tax threshold for the 2017-18 season.

BTW, the trade deadline is not the last opportunity to move Ezeli. We can technically trade him anytime after our last game, which could be as early as April 13, if we don't make the playoffs. Since the teams that are below the salary floor are also unlikely to make the playoffs, we will have another two and a half months to move Ezeli before the balance of his contact becomes guaranteed.

That also opens up the possibility he could be included in a draft day deal. With three first round picks, I expect Neil will be very active on draft day, exploring all possible options.

Point being, even though Neil is trying to move Ezeli now, he's not desperate. He won't overpay someone to take Ezeli at the deadline. If nothing acceptable is offered, he will wait and move him later. He could be part of a larger package going out on, or before draft day.

BNM

 

[B-Roy]

We're already below the luxury tax threshold for this season. We'd have until the last day of the 2017-18 season to make any trades necessary to get below the tax threshold for next season.

If we move Ezeli now, it will be with something with very marginal value attached, like a top 55 protected 2nd round pick, or conditional swapping of second round picks.

I don't really think it's about saving $3.5 - $5 million of Paul Allen's money. See my previous post. I think it's about getting that $1 million in guaranteed salary off the books. It's only $1 million, but it gets us $1 million closer to being under the luxury tax threshold for the 2017-18 season.

BTW, the trade deadline is not the last opportunity to move Ezeli. We can technically trade him anytime after our last game, which could be as early as April 13, if we don't make the playoffs. Since the teams that are below the salary floor are also unlikely to make the playoffs, we will have another two and a half months to move Ezeli before the balance of his contact becomes guaranteed.

That also opens up the possibility he could be included in a draft day deal. With three first round picks, I expect Neil will be very active on draft day, exploring all possible options.

Point being, even though Neil is trying to move Ezeli now, he's not desperate. He won't overpay someone to take Ezeli at the deadline. If nothing acceptable is offered, he will wait and move him later. He could be part of a larger package going out on, or before draft day.

BNM

Agreed on all points.

 

[Orion Bailey]

We're already below the luxury tax threshold for this season. We'd have until the last day of the 2017-18 season to make any trades necessary to get below the tax threshold for next season.

If we move Ezeli now, it will be with something with very marginal value attached, like a top 55 protected 2nd round pick, or conditional swapping of second round picks.

I don't really think it's about saving $3.5 - $5 million of Paul Allen's money. See my previous post. I think it's about getting that $1 million in guaranteed salary off the books. It's only $1 million, but it gets us $1 million closer to being under the luxury tax threshold for the 2017-18 season.

BTW, the trade deadline is not the last opportunity to move Ezeli. We can technically trade him anytime after our last game, which could be as early as April 13, if we don't make the playoffs. Since the teams that are below the salary floor are also unlikely to make the playoffs, we will have another two and a half months to move Ezeli before the balance of his contact becomes guaranteed.

That also opens up the possibility he could be included in a draft day deal. With three first round picks, I expect Neil will be very active on draft day, exploring all possible options.

Point being, even though Neil is trying to move Ezeli now, he's not desperate. He won't overpay someone to take Ezeli at the deadline. If nothing acceptable is offered, he will wait and move him later. He could be part of a larger package going out on, or before draft day.

BNM

Where is the draft day party gonna be at? When is it? Id be down for a summertime pool and BBQ, draft party, but it might be too early in the season?

 

[Chris Craig]

Ezeli, Crabbe, future 2nd

To Orlando for Ibaka

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If NO could work Ezeli plus a couple of picks for Okafor, he and Nurkic would be quite a center rotation. That would be, overall, Mase plus a first and a second for those two guys.

As much issue as Nurkic had in sharing time with Jokic, do you really think he'd respond well to having the same scenario with Okafor?

 

[e_blazer]

As much issue as Nurkic had in sharing time with Jokic, do you really think he'd respond well to having the same scenario with Okafor?

Yeah, that thought occurred to me. Not sure that a 22 year-old gets to call the shots on that, though. Wherever he goes, he's going to have to split time with some other center. At this point, we don't know for sure that Stotts will start him over Leonard or Davis.

 

[Sarni]

Why would we trade him? We won't keep him for next season and he has literally no value in the market. Unless it's for salary matching purposes, he will not be moved.

 

[Boob-No-More]

As much issue as Nurkic had in sharing time with Jokic, do you really think he'd respond well to having the same scenario with Okafor?

I don't think it would be a problem short term, perhaps long term. Both were racking up DNP-CDs and when they did play, Okafor was only averaging 23 MPG and Nurkic less than 18 MPG. They could both get more minutes here than they were on their previous teams.

The good thing is they are both young and still on cheap rookie deals. Two things we lack, after last summer's spending spree.

It's funny that I see posters constantly point out that we are the second youngest team in the league, but we really don't have a lot of young prospects on this roster. Until we got Nurkic, Vonleh was really our only young prospect. Our rookie Layman turns 23 in less than a month. For a "young" team, we really don't have a lot of future talent in the pipeline.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Yeah, that thought occurred to me. Not sure that a 22 year-old gets to call the shots on that, though. Wherever he goes, he's going to have to split time with some other center. At this point, we don't know for sure that Stotts will start him over Leonard or Davis.

Not about him "calling the shots" at all; it's about maximizing asset value and putting the players we have in the best possible chance to succeed. Bringing Okafor in would likely reduce the likelihood of Nurkic returning to the form we seek.

 

[BigGameDamian]

Orlando

 

[e_blazer]

Not about him "calling the shots" at all; it's about maximizing asset value and putting the players we have in the best possible chance to succeed. Bringing Okafor in would likely reduce the likelihood of Nurkic returning to the form we seek.

That's one theory. The other is to have two guys compete for the starting spot and let the competition bring out the best in them. I know that wasn't working well in Denver, but I'm not sure that a guy who won't compete hard is going to pay off in the long run.

 

[Denny Crane]

We say bye bye to Festus this summer and pay the $1M hit to the cap.

I don't think the $1m of cap space is worth trying to sweeten a deal so someone will take the $1M off our books via trade.

That said, this summer, he is $7.7M in trade ballast and the receiving team can cut him and pay the $1M. About a $7M cap space acquisition.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

Yea seems Ezili would be a way bigger asset on draft night instead of trade deadline. Teams will be scrambling for cap relief

 

[Denny Crane]

I also think Nurkic is already better than Plums.

The only worry is his knees. Blazers. Centers. Knees.

 

[riverman]

I also think Nurkic is already better than Plums.

The only worry is his knees. Blazers. Centers. Knees.

He's 22....a big plus and at 5 years younger than Mason.....easy decision

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

He's 22....a big plus and at 5 years younger than Mason.....easy decision

Oden was allegedly 19. But had the knees of a corpse.

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

Oden was allegedly 19. But had the knees of a corpse.

The corpse of a guy who got hit in the knees by a car.

 

[riverman]

Oden was allegedly 19. But had the knees of a corpse.

yep....Oden was a bust #BUZZKILL!!!!!!

 

[riverman]

Oden was allegedly 19. But had the knees of a corpse.

Think of Nurkic as a young, raw..talented Sabonis before his knees went...much better scenario...he's not fast but he's a lane clogger and he can score in the paint

 

[HailBlazers]

Speaking of Knees, so is Ezeli at the B-Roy stage? Never to play meaningful minute's again?

 

[andalusian]

Think of Nurkic as a young, raw..talented Sabonis before his knees went...much better scenario...he's not fast but he's a lane clogger and he can score in the paint

Young sabas was nimble, like the young Shaq, nurkic unfortunately looks like the old, not jumping sabas... Not saying he would not be good, but sabas he never will be

 

[riverman]

Young sabas was nimble, like the young Shaq, nurkic unfortunately looks like the old, not jumping sabas... Not saying he would not be good, but sabas he never will be

it was a stretch in response to an Oden comparison....I'd rather dream this 22 Euro big morphs into Sabo than Oden ...Sabo's no look passes are another story or his line drive 3 pt shot...I'm thinking defense..this Nurkic is still growing

 

[SlyPokerDog]

We traded for Nurkic to use as parts to fix Ezeli.