there seems to be a faith within the trade-Dame narrative that trading Dame is the quickest way to contention. Yes, it's faith-based because it sure isn't supported by history
* Denver traded Melo and hasn't come close to contention since. They did make it to the WCF 3 years ago but none of the talent they had was from the Melo trade
* Utah traded Deron Williams and have never come close to contention since
* Minny traded KG and spent 13 straight years in the lottery; and 16 of the last 18 years. Yep, they have won 3 playoff game in the 18 years after trading KG
* Chicago traded Butler 6 years ago and spent 4 straight years in the lottery until they won 1 game in the playoffs last season. And they are 6 games under .500 right now and 11th seed in the east
* OKC traded Paul George 4 years ago and have spent three years averaging 25 wins and are 5 games under .500 right now and 12th seed
* the Pelicans traded AD 4 years ago, and have spent 3 years averaging 32 wins and are 2 games under .500 right now. And their big payoff this season for trading AD is potentially swapping a 12th pick for a 10th pick
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the track record of trading away franchise players and quickly becoming contenders doesn't really exist
I had a discussion in this forum with a big advocate of "Blazers-have-to trade-Dame-to-contend". I kept asking him what he saw as a realistic timeline between the trade and when the Blazers would contend. He dodged the question several times before he relented and estimated it would take 7 years. I think that was way too optimistic but at least I finally had a practical guess of how long it would take; meaning if Portland traded Dame this summer, they might be contenders by 2030....but might not
Danny Ainge found a dumbfuck Russian owner and perhaps the worst modern NBA GM and fleeced the Nets by trading 37 year old KG and 36 year old Pierce for a pick haul. That trade was in 2013. It tool 9 years before the Celtics made it to the finals. And it's one of those trades that is not a template for anything because of how stupid the Nets were
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here's the thing: about 25 years passed between when Portland had prime Clyde Drexler and prime Damian Lillard. It's a really difficult thing to add a top-10 player. It's even more difficult for a small market team to hold onto that top-10 player. Shaq didn't win a championship in Orlando; KG didn't win one in Minnesota. AD and Chris Paul didn't win one in New Orleans. A player who demonstrates loyalty like Dame has is rare. It should be highly valued by the fan base.
we know what it takes for a small market team to contend: they have to have, at minimum, a top-10 player, a top-20 player, and a talented supporting cast. Blazers have the top-10-ish player now in Dame. So obviously the thinking is Portland needs to trade away the top-10 player they have so they can go out and find a new top-10 player AND a top-20 player AND several quality supporting talents. In other words, they need to find two players as talented as the two it took Portland 25 years to find. Easy-peasy.
and of course, with Ja Morant, the Blazers have an example of how great it is having a player with the quality of character that Dame has. More high value
and the latest rational seems to be that yes, Dame is a top-10 player, but he's the wrong type of top-10 player. He needed to be taller. So then, not only does Portland have to perform the generational feat of landing a new top-10 player, he has to be the right kind of top-10 player.....geeeeeezuz