Zombie Summer of 2016 NBA Free Agency

[riverman]

Leonard is never going to average close to 20 ppg

Or even 17 ppg.

But he could avg a double double if he levels off and matures, which I believe he will...in the end..he asked for more than Olshey would commit to and he'll probably get a Wes Mathews type deal somewhere else offseason...for now, he's a big body, 5 fouls and playing better than early in the season..if he avg 10/10 I'd be thrilled and consider keeping him around. If he's delusional and wants to be a go to guy...he's going to move.

 

[Draco]

Well, we probably won't get him, so you can be happy. However, if you think RA and Biebs are similar, I would strongly disagree. The reason Biebs is really a center is that he can't move his feet enough to move from the paint to a shooter and vice-versa. He also can't dribble. Not only can Ryan Anderson move his feet and dribble, he can go around defenders and score. OTOH, Biebs can guard centers, Anderson can't. Anderson is a 4-3, Biebs is a 5 on a team with 2 other 5s.

Anderson is terrible defensively; might be able to make a case he is worse than Meyers, but both have major problems on that end. Anderson is a far better shooter and more diverse offensively. Both have injury concerns. Anderson is older and more likely to decline. He will be more expensive. Meyers has some room to improve but is much inferior at the present.

With CJ and Dame providing so much offense I don't think Anderson makes any sense here at the $18 million it takes to sign him. Meyers could if he is paid backup market prices. With the new insane cap backup prices might be $9 million per year though.

Crabbe will likely get near the max; similar to Kanter. Harkless gets $8 million and Hendo gets over $10 million. We may keep all of them at those prices and I guess I'll be ok with it. Just way too much money and so few free agents out there.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Kind of interesting how Dwight Howard had no value; they couldn't even get a first round pick for him. An injured Donatas Motiejunas on an expiring contract was worth more.

Really makes you wonder what Dwights free agency will look like. He's burned bridges with a number of teams. With so much small ball there's very few teams out there in need of a center, and a flood of available restricted free agent centers. I think he will expect Houston to offer a multi year deal and they'll decide to go in a different direction.

If a team needs a center he might be available for just a huge one year contract. There will be a team with boatload under the cap left when the other top free agents sign elsewhere first. A team could sell him on rebuilding his value; the team is protected from long term salary with his injuries. Similar to the Rondo deal last summer but for double the money.

With us already having Plumlee and Davis it probably doesn't make sense here.

Sign him, trade plumlee for assets. Plumlee will likely be overpaid after next year

 

[Wizard Mentor]

But he could avg a double double if he levels off and matures, which I believe he will...in the end..he asked for more than Olshey would commit to and he'll probably get a Wes Mathews type deal somewhere else offseason...for now, he's a big body, 5 fouls and playing better than early in the season..if he avg 10/10 I'd be thrilled and consider keeping him around. If he's delusional and wants to be a go to guy...he's going to move.

Heck with the stats, I'd be happy if he stopped handing the other team points.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Anderson is terrible defensively; might be able to make a case he is worse than Meyers, but both have major problems on that end. Anderson is a far better shooter and more diverse offensively. Both have injury concerns. Anderson is older and more likely to decline. He will be more expensive. Meyers has some room to improve but is much inferior at the present.

With CJ and Dame providing so much offense I don't think Anderson makes any sense here at the $18 million it takes to sign him. Meyers could if he is paid backup market prices. With the new insane cap backup prices might be $9 million per year though.

I think Crabbe gets the max, Harkless gets $8 million and Hendo gets over $10 million. We may keep all of them at those prices and I guess I'll be ok with it. Just way too much money and so few free agents out there.

Good Summary, but I am quite sure Bieb's agent is looking for $$$ way, way North of $9 Mil. That's why NO broke off extension talks and Biebs subsequently said "I'm betting on myself."

 

[riverman]

Good Summary, but I am quite sure Bieb's agent is looking for $$$ way, way North of $9 Mil. That's why NO broke off extension talks and Biebs subsequently said "I'm betting on myself."

It comes down to Crabbe or Leonard, my money's on Crabbe getting the deal here

 

[Chris Craig]

Batum is gonna end up in SA somehow.

I predict New Orleans..his favorite city here, or Toronto

I think Batum will take his irregular varying talent to one of the NY teams

 

[craigehlo]

Kind of interesting how Dwight Howard had no value; they couldn't even get a first round pick for him. An injured Donatas Motiejunas on an expiring contract was worth more.

Several teams inquired on Dwight, but he won't commit to resigning anywhere. He wants to be courted as a FA this summer. No GM is going to give up anything on value for his fickle a$$. I'm guessing he's headed to Atlanta in the summer.

 

[Sinobas]

Chandler Parsons is a guy I don't see any Blazer fans talking about. He's shooting this year 40/53. Perhaps Aminu could become a PF. He'll be 28 next year, so he still has about 4 prime years left.

 

[riverman]

I think Batum will take his irregular varying talent to one of the NY teams

The reunion of the Nic and Rolo!...NYC would love that...3 ex Blazers starting at the Garden..Afflalo, Lopez and Batum!

 

[riverman]

Several teams inquired on Dwight, but he won't commit to resigning anywhere. He wants to be courted as a FA this summer. No GM is going to give up anything on value for his fickle a$$. I'm guessing he's headed to Atlanta in the summer.

It's a perfect scenario for him...the homecoming parade, etc..he eats that shit up

 

[Natebishop3]

Chandler Parsons is a guy I don't see any Blazer fans talking about. He's shooting this year 40/53. Perhaps Aminu could become a PF. He'll be 28 next year, so he still has about 4 prime years left.

We were literally talking about him..... in this thread. And I mentioned him a week or two ago.

 

[Scalma]

Leonard is never going to average close to 20 ppg

Or even 17 ppg.

I remember when I said Leonard would never become a rotational player. I learned. I'm not limiting him, especially offensively. He can shoot from pretty much anywhere on the court. You run plays for him, he keeps developing, and this statement might look pretty funny in a year or two.

 

[42N8Bounce]

I've updated Post #141 in the Blazers Salary Cap Info thread showing the Blazers projected CAP space for summer 2016 (2016-17 season).

If the CAP is at $92M, it's looking like the Blazers could have up to $39,993,095 of CAP space (if they renounce the rights to all of their free agents.)

The Blazers will have some big decisions with their free agents:
Gerald Henderson, $9,000,000 (CAP hold 150% of previous year's salary.)
Meyers Leonard, $7,689,700 (CAP hold 250% of previous year's salary.)
Maurice Harkless, $7,235,148 (CAP hold 250% of previous year's salary.)
Brian Roberts, $3,711,422 (CAP hold 130% of previous year's salary.)
Allen Crabbe, $1,215,696 (CAP hold min salary since previous year was min salary.)

The timing of making an offer to Crabbe will be critical since he will for sure get an offer higher than his CAP hold. Since the Blazers have his Bird Rights, they can go over the CAP to match any offer. If he signs an offer sheet from another team early in the process, the Blazer will have 3 days to match, but that could really tie the Blazer hands in other potential offers they would like to make. Hopefully Crabbe agrees to hold off and allow the Blazers to sign him after they have gone after all of the other big signings they want to chase.

The estimated Max contracts will be:
0-6 yr NBA vet, 25% of CAP, $23,000,000
7-9 yr NBA vet, 30% of CAP, $27,600,000
10+ yr NBA vet, 35% of CAP, $32,200,000

 

[Sinobas]

We were literally talking about him..... in this thread. And I mentioned him a week or two ago.

Well, I didn't see that post

 

[Draco]

Good Summary, but I am quite sure Bieb's agent is looking for $$$ way, way North of $9 Mil. That's why NO broke off extension talks and Biebs subsequently said "I'm betting on myself."

Well keep in mind those reports are all coming from Biebs agent; Neil doesn't leak any of those details. But yeah it might be how the conversation played out.

I'm sure he'd like north of $9million. Don't think Biebs is winning that bet so far. He'll be at the mercy of the market. Could get way overpaid but other teams may have major concerns of his limitations. The market is flooded with centers too.

 

[Draco]

I've updated Post #141 in the Blazers Salary Cap Info thread showing the Blazers projected CAP space for summer 2016 (2016-17 season).

If the CAP is at $92M, it's looking like the Blazers could have up to $39,993,095 of CAP space (if they renounce the rights to all of their free agents.)

The Blazers will have some big decisions with their free agents:
View attachment 7917 Gerald Henderson, $9,000,000 (CAP hold 150% of previous year's salary.)
View attachment 7918 Meyers Leonard, $7,689,700 (CAP hold 250% of previous year's salary.)
View attachment 7919 Maurice Harkless, $7,235,148 (CAP hold 250% of previous year's salary.)
View attachment 7916 Brian Roberts, $3,711,422 (CAP hold 130% of previous year's salary.)
View attachment 7920 Allen Crabbe, $1,215,696 (CAP hold min salary since previous year was min salary.)

The timing of making an offer to Crabbe will be critical since he will for sure get an offer higher than his CAP hold. Since the Blazers have his Bird Rights, they can go over the CAP to match any offer. If he signs an offer sheet from another team early in the process, the Blazer will have 3 days to match, but that could really tie the Blazer hands in other potential offers they would like to make. Hopefully Crabbe agrees to hold off and allow the Blazers to sign him after they have gone after all of the other big signings they want to chase.

The estimated Max contracts will be:
0-6 yr NBA vet, 25% of CAP, $23,000,000
7-9 yr NBA vet, 30% of CAP, $27,600,000
10+ yr NBA vet, 35% of CAP, $32,200,000

I don't see that as much of an issue since the Blazer have 10 days to negotiate before any players sign anything; and then 3 more days from when a contract is signed until the higher number hits their cap if they match.

All the major free agents have agreements before that time.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I've updated Post #141 in the Blazers Salary Cap Info thread showing the Blazers projected CAP space for summer 2016 (2016-17 season).

If the CAP is at $92M, it's looking like the Blazers could have up to $39,993,095 of CAP space (if they renounce the rights to all of their free agents.)

The Blazers will have some big decisions with their free agents:
View attachment 7917 Gerald Henderson, $9,000,000 (CAP hold 150% of previous year's salary.)
View attachment 7918 Meyers Leonard, $7,689,700 (CAP hold 250% of previous year's salary.)
View attachment 7919 Maurice Harkless, $7,235,148 (CAP hold 250% of previous year's salary.)
View attachment 7916 Brian Roberts, $3,711,422 (CAP hold 130% of previous year's salary.)
View attachment 7920 Allen Crabbe, $1,215,696 (CAP hold min salary since previous year was min salary.)

The timing of making an offer to Crabbe will be critical since he will for sure get an offer higher than his CAP hold. Since the Blazers have his Bird Rights, they can go over the CAP to match any offer. If he signs an offer sheet from another team early in the process, the Blazer will have 3 days to match, but that could really tie the Blazer hands in other potential offers they would like to make. Hopefully Crabbe agrees to hold off and allow the Blazers to sign him after they have gone after all of the other big signings they want to chase.

The estimated Max contracts will be:
0-6 yr NBA vet, 25% of CAP, $23,000,000
7-9 yr NBA vet, 30% of CAP, $27,600,000
10+ yr NBA vet, 35% of CAP, $32,200,000

Pardon me--I'm stealing this post for a new thread.

 

[B-Roy]

Pardon me--I'm stealing this post for a new thread.

Man, you could at least like his post if you're gonna steal it. Give the guy some credit!!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Man, you could at least like his post if you're gonna steal it. Give the guy some credit!!

Good call--done.

 

[Duckhook]

Honest question... If we couldn't spend all of our free agent $$ last year to attract a tier 1 FA to Portland, what makes people think this off-season will be any different for next year? I'm just more pragmatic than most I suppose.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Honest question... If we couldn't spend all of our free agent $$ last year to attract a tier 1 FA to Portland, what makes people think this off-season will be any different for next year? I'm just more pragmatic than most I suppose.

Because last season, we were perceived as a team that was being broken apart for a rebuild, and would be a bottom-5 team in the league.

This season, we are a team on the rise, having shocked all the analysts by unexpectedly reaching the playoffs, and are just a major addition away from becoming a contender.

Wow--I almost convinced myself.

 

[Natebishop3]

Neil tends to go for the under-the-radar free agents. While everyone is clamoring over Durant, he'll swoop in on someone like Parsons.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Neil tends to go for the under-the-radar free agents. While everyone is clamoring over Durant, he'll swoop in on someone like Parsons.

Hypothetically, if Parsons is brought in for (for example) $20m/year, how would you envision the remainder of the lineup? Would you keep both Crabbe and Harkless?

 

[Natebishop3]

Hypothetically, if Parsons is brought in for (for example) $20m/year, how would you envision the remainder of the lineup? Would you keep both Crabbe and Harkless?

I would keep Crabbe regardless. He has value, and even if we match, we could turn around and trade him in December or January.

Harkless is a bit of a conundrum because I have no idea what his market will be. He's still young, he has talent, so I tend to think that someone will throw a contract offer at him. It might be a very Olsheyian offer. $8 million a year for 3-4 years. Exactly the kind of thing we threw at Aminu and Davis. Do we match that? I'd like to keep his RFA status for as long as possible.

I'm just dreading Leonard's free agency. I don't like his game. I don't really want to keep him, but I also don't want to lose him for nothing. I get the feeling that some team is going to throw a silly contract offer at him. I'm really not looking forward to whatever happens with him this summer.

 

[blue9]

Of those listed, only Drummond interests me. But he's as unrealistic as Durant.
Of the remaining names the only ones that make sense are Barnes and DeRozan (and Nic, I suppose).
Stay away from everyone else.

But as others have mentioned, I don't see us getting ANY of those names, and that's probably a good thing (unless we somehow got Drummond! Or Durant...). We'll end up with a couple more Aminu/Davis-level players - hopefully a better SF that will move Aminu to the bench.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I would keep Crabbe regardless. He has value, and even if we match, we could turn around and trade him in December or January.

Harkless is a bit of a conundrum because I have no idea what his market will be. He's still young, he has talent, so I tend to think that someone will throw a contract offer at him. It might be a very Olsheyian offer. $8 million a year for 3-4 years. Exactly the kind of thing we threw at Aminu and Davis. Do we match that? I'd like to keep his RFA status for as long as possible.

I'm just dreading Leonard's free agency. I don't like his game. I don't really want to keep him, but I also don't want to lose him for nothing. I get the feeling that some team is going to throw a silly contract offer at him. I'm really not looking forward to whatever happens with him this summer.

No interest in/expectation of keeping Hendo?

Re: Leonard, how high would an offer have to be to qualify as "silly"? Would you keep him for $12M?

 

[riverman]

I would give Hendo a great contract and I'd keep Harkless and Crabbe...I think Leonard will price himself out of our market and somebody will pay him that lacks 3 pt shooters that stretch the floor. I also think the landscape will change if we have any playoff success..really comes down to who steps ups and who stays healthy

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Realistic targets -- backup PG

Jeremy Lin
Matt Dellavedova
Mario Chalmers

 

[BigGameDamian]