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3 7 6 8 1 8 6 8 6 6
6 3 8 8 5 3 7 7 2 5

First 5th spot was (Hou+1, SAS+1, Det-2, Cha)
Second 5th spot was (Cha+3, Hou, SAS, Det -3)
 
Don't see any 9th spot, which is extremely unlikely but yes possibly if all top4 spots are from teams with less odds that jump us.

So when watching the draft we don't have to worry about seeing our name in spots 14-10. But after that we don't want to see the Blazers and should be ecstatic if we see Charlotte or the Spurs.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
Don't see any 9th spot, which is extremely unlikely but yes possibly if all top4 spots are from teams with less odds that jump us.

So when watching the draft we don't have to worry about seeing our name in spots 14-10. But after that we don't want to see the Blazers and should be ecstatic if we see Charlotte or the Spurs.
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There will kind of be a key when watching the draft lotto. If no team behind us moves up we are 1-5. If one team behind us moves up and we aren't the 6th pick then we are 1-4. If two teams behind us move up and we aren't 7 or 6 then we will be 1-4. If three teams behind us move up and we aren't 8, 7, or 6 we will also be 1-4. If four teams behind us move up then we will have the ninth pick.
 
blazerkor said:
There will kind of be a key when watching the draft lotto. If no team behind us moves up we are 1-5. If one team behind us moves up and we aren't the 6th pick then we are 1-4. If two teams behind us move up and we aren't 7 or 6 then we will be 1-4. If three teams behind us move up and we aren't 8, 7, or 6 we will also be 1-4. If four teams behind us move up then we will have the ninth pick.
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The NBA should reveal the order over a two week period, lol
 
blazerkor said:
There will kind of be a key when watching the draft lotto. If no team behind us moves up we are 1-5. If one team behind us moves up and we aren't the 6th pick then we are 1-4. If two teams behind us move up and we aren't 7 or 6 then we will be 1-4. If three teams behind us move up and we aren't 8, 7, or 6 we will also be 1-4. If four teams behind us move up then we will have the ninth pick.
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If 2 teams behind us move up, we can't be 6. It's 1-4, or 7.
If 3 teams behind us move up, we can't be 6 or 7. It's 1-4, or 8
 
PtldPlatypus said:
If 2 teams behind us move up, we can't be 6. It's 1-4, or 7.
If 3 teams behind us move up, we can't be 6 or 7. It's 1-4, or 8
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Yeah and the lottery reveals all happens so fast I don't think even as a math person I can figure that out in the moment. I'll just hope to not see our card starting at pick #9, and hope to see Charlotte or the Spurs before us.

If someone has a better one sentence summary of what we should root for I'm eager to hear it. But @blazerkor scenarios above are way too complicated for me to remember while pounding drinks, watching and yelling at the TV.
 
Blazers probability of picking at each spot;

#1 10.5%
#2 10.5
#3 10.6
#4 10.5
#5 2.2
#6 19.6
#7 26.7
#8 8.7
#9 0.6
 
Blazers probability of picking at each spot sorted;

#7 26.7%
#6 19.6
#3 10.6
#1/#2/#4 all 10.5%
#8 8.7
#5 2.2
#9 0.6

odd that #3 is 0.1% higher than the other top4 spots.
 
So nearly half of scenarios have us at #6 or #7.

2.5x as likely to pick at #7 than at #1.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
Blazers probability of picking at each spot sorted;

#7 26.7%
#6 19.6
#3 10.6
#1/#2/#4 all 10.5%
#8 8.7
#5 2.2
#9 0.6

odd that #3 is 0.1% higher than the other top4 spots.
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#7 would certainly suck (#8 even more) On the flipside 4-9 is kind of a toss-up in terms of potential. (Maybe even 3-9) If GMs believe that to be true, then the trade value of the players drafted 4-9 might be the same in their eyes.
 
7,6,1,4,7,7,6,7,5,7

It sure seems like getting the 5th spot almost guarantees you're gonna get boned.
 
wizenheimer said:
??

View attachment 55810
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cookie-monster-girlscout.gif
 
Pinwheel1 said:
#7 would certainly suck (#8 even more) On the flipside 4-9 is kind of a toss-up in terms of potential. (Maybe even 3-9) If GMs believe that to be true, then the trade value of the players drafted 4-9 might be the same in their eyes.
Click to expand...
I think if we move up to 2 or 3 then it will substantially increase the trade value of our pick. I think 4-7 is pretty close in terms of trade value probably depending on the team and those picks likely wouldn't be moved until we were on the clock but who knows. I think the only pick where we will know the most likely thing to happen is if we land at 1.
 
Natebishop3 said:
7,6,1,4,7,7,6,7,5,7

It sure seems like getting the 5th spot almost guarantees you're gonna get boned.
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"Getting boned" only happens when you draft a dud.
With the 1st pick in 2007, the Blazers got boned royally when they drafted Greg Oden.

With the 6th/7th pick in 2006, Brandon Roy was drafted.
With the 6th pick in 2012, Damian Lillard was drafted.
With the 7th pick in 2022, Shaedon Sharpe was drafted.
 
Anyone here knowledgeable enough to know how much having Wemby increases the value of the blazers?

Say, as of now, team is valued $2.1 Billion usd. What happens when we get #1 and draft Wemby? How much does he influence team valuation?
 
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