The 2010 Draft was really crappy!

[magnifier661]

John wall sucks! Worst high profile pg in the nba right now

 

[MickZagger]

Rubio > Wall

Indeed.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

+/- is such a ridiculous stat.

I am so fucking sick and tired of people saying this like it is a little nugget of wisdom. Yes, +/- has its limits. If you're platooning in with someone great, then your +/- will be inflated. If you're a really shitty bench-playing three point shooter, then your +/- might get inflated because you're subbed in on offense at the end of quarters and off again on defense (so, conversely, good defensive players can get hurt by this). I get that. (And incidentally, I have hereby offered way more analysis than every single moron who spouts "+/- is a meaningless stat!")
BUT: it's the ONLY stat that has any possibility of capturing defensive contributions or, in general, contributions to making the team run smoother (like setting bone-crunching picks, or boxing out the other team's best rebounder without actually getting the rebound yourself, but allowing a teammate to pad his rebound stats). And if you're BY FAR AND AWAY THE BEST ON YOUR TEAM, and you're NOT a good offensive player, then that says something, don't you think? Or can you explain that away?

(Incidentally, I knew he was a contributor because I've actually watched Warriors games and heard the announcers comment on how important he's become to the team.)

 

[MickZagger]

I am so fucking sick and tired of people saying this like it is a little nugget of wisdom. Yes, +/- has its limits. If you're platooning in with someone great, then your +/- will be inflated. If you're a really shitty bench-playing three point shooter, then your +/- might get inflated because you're subbed in on offense at the end of quarters and off again on defense (so, conversely, good defensive players can get hurt by this). I get that. (And incidentally, I have hereby offered way more analysis than every single moron who spouts "+/- is a meaningless stat!")
BUT: it's the ONLY stat that has any possibility of capturing defensive contributions or, in general, contributions to making the team run smoother (like setting bone-crunching picks, or boxing out the other team's best rebounder without actually getting the rebound yourself, but allowing a teammate to pad his rebound stats). And if you're BY FAR AND AWAY THE BEST ON YOUR TEAM, and you're NOT a good offensive player, then that says something, don't you think? Or can you explain that away?

(Incidentally, I knew he was a contributor because I've actually watched Warriors games and heard the announcers comment on how important he's become to the team.)

+/- is doesnt have credence with me. Curse all you want, it just doesn't carry weight with me, basketball is way too much of a team oriented game. If he was such a difference maker he'd be earning more burn than 20 minutes a game. Udoh is a help side shot blocker, thats about it.

Also, save the implication that I don't watch Warriors games. I've seen them several times this year.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't think there's any way Anthony Davis doesn't go #1. He could snap his leg like Kenyon Martin and still go #1.

That said, while I agree that you're not getting LBJ/Melo/Wade/etc in the top of the draft, the fact that at 20 you might have the choice b/w Austin Rivers, Terrence Ross and Tony Wroten is pretty damn good.

I really would like Tony Wroten. I've liked his game since he was an illegally-playing sophomore in HS.

 

[THE HCP]

I really would like Tony Wroten. I've liked his game since he was an illegally-playing sophomore in HS.

???????

 

[JDC]

+/- is doesnt have credence with me. Curse all you want, it just doesn't carry weight with me, basketball is way too much of a team oriented game. If he was such a difference maker he'd be earning more burn than 20 minutes a game. Udoh is a help side shot blocker, thats about it.

Also, save the implication that I don't watch Warriors games. I've seen them several times this year.

I think his post D is great as well. He has a solid base to keep guys from getting deep on him, good length. Your right though, he doesn't give anything outside of that.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

"The New no-stats all-star":

When Udoh checks in with the second unit and Golden State immediately goes on a run, simply note that "Udoh's plus-minus is at it again." Over the course of the season, the Warriors are 19.6 points better per 100 possessions, per BasketballValue.com. Only Blake Griffin of the Los Angeles Clippers (+22.9) has a larger net plus-minus in the league this season. If this is an artifact of the statistics, it's a remarkably consistent one. As a rookie, Udoh had a +11.7 net plus-minus. Therefore, despite his limited minutes, Udoh's adjusted plus-minus is becoming more statistically significant all the time. According to the two-year version favored by BasketballValue, Udoh's adjusted plus-minus is 2.53 standard deviations better than average.

 

[Minstrel]

plus-minus is a perfectly good tool to use, in combination with everything else, to get a picture of player value. As Rasta says, there's no other stat that even plausibly accounts for beneficial things like defense (judging defense by blocks and steals is akin to judging offense by number of dunks...it's only the most visually spectacular version), spacing, passes that help lead to baskets even if not the pass directly before the score, passes that lead to shooting fouls drawn, etc.

It also sets as a useful baseline the player's actual surrounding talent...whether you're on a good team or a bad team, you can either make the situation better or not. It accounts for context, removing lazy arguments like "They would be awesome even if they didn't have him" or "They'd suck with or without him." It shows how much better they are (or aren't) with him or how much more they'd suck (or wouldn't) without him.

 

[MickZagger]

If Udoh was such a difference maker he would be averaging more than 20 minutes a night. +/- doesnt hold water with me. Too much of a team game, I've said from day 1. I'd like to know who rotates in with him when they go on these runs? Nate Robinson, Brandon Rush?

 

[RR7]

Then really, why should ANY stat hold water to you, with it being such a team game? Assists? Meh, team game. Need guys to hit shots. Rebounds? Meh, need guys to miss shots. Need teammates to block out their guys also. Points? Need teammates to distract attention. Need teammates to set picks, etc. I think Minstrel said it best. it is a perfectly good tool to use, in combination with everything else.

 

[MickZagger]

Then really, why should ANY stat hold water to you, with it being such a team game? Assists? Meh, team game. Need guys to hit shots. Rebounds? Meh, need guys to miss shots. Need teammates to block out their guys also. Points? Need teammates to distract attention. Need teammates to set picks, etc. I think Minstrel said it best. it is a perfectly good tool to use, in combination with everything else.

Its not black and white like that.

There's 5 guys on a court per team. Why should a guy like Cole Aldrich's stats be effected in a positive way just because he checks in with James Harden who gets hot and goes off for 15 straight points. Also, why should Harden's stat be effected because Aldrich let some scrub opponent score on him in consecutive trips. Its just a silly stat.

Your right its a tool to use in combination with everything else. Unfortunately for Udoh, he sucks at everything else.

 

[Minstrel]

If Udoh was such a difference maker he would be averaging more than 20 minutes a night.

What do you mean "such a difference-maker?" No one's saying he's a franchise player or major impact player. The fact that he is playing 20 minutes per game should tell you that he's not garbage. 20 minutes per game seems like a solid contributor. There's also the possibility that he's not being played as much as he should...certainly people, including you (and me), say that Batum isn't playing enough minutes, so the idea that the amount of minutes a coach plays someone is the ultimate arbiter of their value doesn't seem very reasonable.

 

[magnifier661]

So Jeremy Lin was in this draft class?

 

[MickZagger]

What do you mean "such a difference-maker?" No one's saying he's a franchise player or major impact player. The fact that he is playing 20 minutes per game should tell you that he's not garbage. 20 minutes per game seems like a solid contributor. There's also the possibility that he's not being played as much as he should...certainly people, including you (and me), say that Batum isn't playing enough minutes, so the idea that the amount of minutes a coach plays someone is the ultimate arbiter of their value doesn't seem very reasonable.

The poster who linked up a stat saying he lead the team in +/- like it was significant. The guy has a PER of 10 and barely shoots 40% despite almost all of his point coming from in the paint. He's a better than average defender, but not good enough to get off the bench on a team void of big men. In the discussion of solid contributing lottery picks of 2010 draft (like we were discussing) he's the worst of the lot. He's not 'already' a solid contributor. If a 10 PER and nothing but a couple blocked shots is what you have to show from lottery pick, thats a bust in my book. I don't see much upside with Udoh either.

 

[Minstrel]

The poster who linked up a stat saying he lead the team in +/- like it was significant.

It is significant, it just doesn't mean he's a star. You seem to be misunderstanding the point of something like this. The point is not that +/- provides a direct mapping of the best players in the league...that the #1 player in +/- is the #1 player in the NBA and the #2 player in +/- is the #2 player in the NBA. PER doesn't give you that kind of mapping either, because it almost completely ignores defense. The point of stats like this is that they can point to hidden value that the traditional numbers don't display. The fact that Udoh has such a good +/- doesn't mean he's the best player on the team, it means that he may well provide a fair amount of value to his team that isn't reflected in the things that are traditionally easier to measure (like points and rebounds).

In the discussion of solid contributing lottery picks of 2010 draft (like we were discussing) he's the worst of the lot.

He's the worst of solidly contributing lottery picks, most likely, but he may be a solid contributor, which was the claim being made. That said, +/-, being an indirect measure of value, takes a few years to really stabilize for a player, so it's probably best not to make any conclusive determinations based on it. I don't take the position that he definitely is a useful player...PER is probably a better short-term indicator of value. But I think you're overstating the case to claim +/- is meaningless and no stock whatsoever should be placed in it. It's one of our only statistical glimpses into things that cannot be directly measured and, as such, has a place in discussions.

 

[MickZagger]

^ When discussing star players that play a major role on their team, sure +/- has a little bit of merit for the effect they can have on their team. But, when discussing a 20mpg guy that can't really do much aside from block shots it just doesn't hold water.

Your hypotheticals are making my head spin.

If you don't take the position that Udoh's a useful player than why are you breaking this down point by point? I think your more argueing against my statement that +/- is a bogus stat. Which, you yourself has stated that it is a good stat when taken into account with other stats. Bingo, Udoh outside of his +/- is a horrible player statistically.

 

[MickZagger]

There's also the possibility that he's not being played as much as he should...certainly people, including you (and me), say that Batum isn't playing enough minutes, so the idea that the amount of minutes a coach plays someone is the ultimate arbiter of their value doesn't seem very reasonable.

Perhaps Mark Jackson doesn't pay attention to +/- and Nate McMillan does?

Batum is a difference maker who has the 8th best +/- on the team. Which, largely (up until about 5 games ago atleast) had to do with the units Batum was playing with.

 

[Minstrel]

I think your more argueing against my statement that +/- is a bogus stat.

That's exactly what I'm arguing, though in a pretty casual way. I just find advanced stats a pretty interesting part of sports. Udoh, himself, I'm pretty agnostic on. I don't necessarily think he's a terribly valuable player, but his +/- leaves me open to the possibility that he might be.

Which, you yourself has stated that it is a good stat when taken into account with other stats. Bingo, Udoh outside of his +/- is a horrible player statistically.

Which means he's a horrible offensive producer. The question, which +/- raises, is whether he derives value from other things that rate and counting stats don't measure.

To be honest, I think pure +/- does have flaws, largely the one you mentioned...the specific teammates that the player in question tends to play with. I have seen Adjusted +/- metrics that attempt to control for that, which I find more useful. But I don't think it's a silly stat or concept, even unadjusted.

 

[Run BJM]

Perhaps Mark Jackson doesn't pay attention to +/- and Nate McMillan does?

Batum is a difference maker who has the 8th best +/- on the team. Which, largely (up until about 5 games ago atleast) had to do with the units Batum was playing with.

There are political factors. Biedrins is a complete fugging nightmare, but they keep starting him to retain some semblance of trade value. Plus Udoh is really a PF and since Kwame got injured he plays C most of the time even though hes undersized.

Interestingly enough, Udoh got a start due to a Biedrins injury a few games ago and put up 19/8. In 13 games in February hes averaging 24 mpg and his FG% is at a much more respectable 46%. All the while Mark Jackson has been running a few plays a game for Udoh in the post and he ordered him to work on the mid-range J daily. Udoh's been taking and hitting 15 footers in games at a much higher rate the last few weeks. He'll probably never be an impressive pts/rebs/FG% guy but he was making an impact even with dismal offense before. If he maintains consistently adequate offensive production hes undoubtedly a contributor. Not a star but certainly worthy of being in NBA rotations.

 

[MickZagger]

Haha, Ricky Davis in his prime couldnt sniff George's jock as a 20 year old.

Udoh's a solid contributor? He blocks shots in like 20 minutes a game. He's no threat whatsoever to score. I scratched my head at that pick when it happened, I still do. Dude is a 10 PER player who can barely shoot 40% from the floor despite most his attempts coming from put backs and gimme's. Solid contributor he is not.

Bump.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

It's interesting that a lot of the players from this draft have made a jump in usefulness this year. Such as...

1 	Washington Wizards  	John Wall PG, 6-4, 195 Kentucky

He's had an amazing effect on the Wiz so my opinion of him as all-flash, no substance has to be reevaluated.

5 	Sacramento Kings  	DeMarcus Cousins C, 6-11, 290 Kentucky

Still a fuckup and inefficient, but the talent cannot be denied.

7 	Detroit Pistons  	Greg Monroe F, 6-11, 240 Georgetown

Works well with Drummond. Skilled.

8 	Los Angeles Clippers  	Al-Farouq Aminu F, 6-8, 210 Wake Forest

No longer looks like a total bust!

10 	Indiana Pacers  	Paul George F, 6-9, 185 Fresno State

I said there wasn't an All-Star in the bunch and he's just proved me wrong! Danny Granger being out pushed him to be more of a scorer.

13 	Toronto Raptors  	Ed Davis F, 6-9, 215 North Carolina

Now a starter for an actually good team.

15 	Milwaukee Bucks 	Larry Sanders F, 6-9, 205 Virginia Commonwealth

REALLY made a huge leap. Maybe the Bucks' most valuable player.

18 	Oklahoma City Thunder 	Eric Bledsoe G, 6-1, 190 Kentucky

Russell Westbrook II?

19 	Boston Celtics  	Avery Bradley G, 6-3, 180 Texas

His value was enough to drive Ray Allen away.

27 	New Jersey Nets 	Jordan Crawford (Traded to Atlanta) G, 6-4, 195 Xavier

Quite the scorer for the Wiz.

28 	Memphis Grizzlies 	Greivis Vasquez G, 6-6, 210 Maryland

The steal of the draft? Has had player of the week in the ENTIRE Western Conference! HERE'S who we should have taken instead of Babbitt or E-Will.

40 	Indiana Pacers  	Lance Stephenson G, 6-5, 225 Cincinnati

Didn't look so great yesterday but has become valuable to the Pacers

55 	Utah Jazz  		Jeremy Evans F, 6-9, 190 Western Kentucky

He was actually looking better last year, but still, the Jazz can always pick useful players in the second round.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Wasn't Bledsoe an Olshey pick? It seems he really knows how to draft PG's.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Rubio > Wall

LOL@Fez and Zags.

I only find it funny because we now have a 12-page thread talking about Bricky Rubio. But Wall is overrated (he's good, but still overrated IMO), so it could only be a matter of time before this is true. But I'm doubting it at the moment.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Wasn't Bledsoe an Olshey pick? It seems he really knows how to draft PG's.

Yes, I believe so. I remember when we were rumored to be after Bledsoe last year. Wish we would have been able to nab him. I recall several posters here bagging on the possibility of acquiring him, saying he was garbage.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Wasn't Bledsoe an Olshey pick? It seems he really knows how to draft PG's.

Yes and yes.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Yes, I believe so. I remember when we were rumored to be after Bledsoe last year. Wish we would have been able to nab him. I recall several posters here bagging on the possibility of acquiring him, saying he was garbage.

I wanted Bledsoe; my Clipper buddy was really high on him his rookie year, and I definitely wanted what he could do. He was pretty out of control back then, but like most kids, has settled down nicely.

 

[MickZagger]

Bledsoe > Wall