The "All-Star" KP is trying to land is Mo Williams

[Blaze01]

Not a fan of Mo Williams....

 

[Minstrel]

Obviously, a pro basketball player is different from a 4 year old learning to bike. But human nature is human nature.

Not necessarily. There's such a thing as a "picked population." A population made up entirely of people who have a certain characteristic due to the selection criteria.

The players who make it to the NBA are players who have experienced and dealt with pressure throughout their careers. It's such a demanding task to get a spot in the NBA, being prone to struggling when under pressure is likely to wash you out prior to reaching the NBA.

So while I agree that in the general population a large percentage see their performance degrade under pressure, I'm not sure it's a significant issue in the NBA (or MLB, NFL). It's a group of people picked (in part) for their ability to handle pressure.

 

[Draco]

I don't see Cleveland trading Mo until they figure out LeBron's status. If LeBron stays they will keep Mo, but if LBJ leaves the Cavs would consider offers for a salary dump and young talent, such as Pryz and Rudy. So if we don’t get some miracle CP3 trade I’m now hoping LeBron leaves town

All the Blazers have is decent role players.

The last thing this team needs is another decent role player. What they need is someone that can carry the team along with Roy. All great teams have at least 2 all-star type players. Portland has 1 and a bunch of role players.

Easier said than done, I mean how do you add an all-star type player? Is there an easy button you can push? I’d say dynasty’s have two hall of fame studs. So instead of worrying about piddly all-stars why don’t the Blazers simply add two hall of fame players so we have an instant dynasty? Duh it’s so simple….

Well seriously I’d love a big consolidation trade that brings in a bona-fide all-star if one is available, but I think it’s unlikely. I do believe Oden was a better player than Roy for the first 21 games this season, so if his injuries improve we would add that second All-star without any moves. At the end of the day when evaluating any trade I break it down to this; “does this move make the team better in the long run?” I believe adding Mo definitely would so I’d be all for it. Yes adding a superior player would be even more beneficial but if it’s not an option you have to choose the most beneficial move you can make from the options available.

 

[mook]

Easier said than done, I mean how do you add an all-star type player? Is there an easy button you can push? I’d say dynasty’s have two hall of fame studs. So instead of worrying about piddly all-stars why don’t the Blazers simply add two hall of fame players so we have an instant dynasty? Duh it’s so simple….

Well seriously I’d love a big consolidation trade that brings in a bona-fide all-star if one is available, but I think it’s unlikely. I do believe Oden was a better player than Roy for the first 21 games this season, so if his injuries improve we would add that second All-star without any moves. At the end of the day when evaluating any trade I break it down to this; “does this move make the team better in the long run?” I believe adding Mo definitely would so I’d be all for it. Yes adding a superior player would be even more beneficial but if it’s not an option you have to choose the most beneficial move you can make from the options available.

I think that's why I like the trade I mention in the Collison thread. It's tough to acquire an All-Star after they become one. But Collison isn't there yet. A consolidation trade for a guy with All-Star upside is just more do-able.

 

[mook]

Not necessarily. There's such a thing as a "picked population." A population made up entirely of people who have a certain characteristic due to the selection criteria.

The players who make it to the NBA are players who have experienced and dealt with pressure throughout their careers. It's such a demanding task to get a spot in the NBA, being prone to struggling when under pressure is likely to wash you out prior to reaching the NBA.

So while I agree that in the general population a large percentage see their performance degrade under pressure, I'm not sure it's a significant issue in the NBA (or MLB, NFL). It's a group of people picked (in part) for their ability to handle pressure.

Then where does "clutch play" come from? I know from past posts you don't think players miraculously add talent when the pressure of a tight game is on. I've always felt clutch players are ones who just handle pressure better than other players.

There are lots of key ingredients that go into making an NBA player. Athleticism, size, shooting accuracy, speed, dexterity....and ability to handle massive amounts of pressure. You can have elite levels of several of those things and make it into the NBA without having all of them.

Shaq shoots .527 on free-throws during the regular season over his career, and .505 during the playoffs.

 

[Ed O]

Then where does "clutch play" come from? I know from past posts you don't think players miraculously add talent when the pressure of a tight game is on. I've always felt clutch players are ones who just handle pressure better than other players.

Well, I'm not Minstrel, but I think clutch is a matter of perception, rather than reality. Horry and Fisher have succeeded in the playoffs, but a random distribution of player performances would lead to some players succeeding beyond their abilities and some underperforming. Sample sizes--even in a career's worth of playoff appearances--aren't enough to smooth out those variances entirely.

Ed O.

 

[Minstrel]

Then where does "clutch play" come from? I know from past posts you don't think players miraculously add talent when the pressure of a tight game is on. I've always felt clutch players are ones who just handle pressure better than other players.

My personal belief is that "clutch players" don't exist, they're more a matter of narrative. It's rarely enough for fans and sports writers to say "So and so played really well this playoffs" or "So and so played quite poorly this playoffs." With the heightened importance of playoffs, emotions run higher and those who do well, people want to single out for greater praise and those who do poorly people want to single out for greater scorn. The idea of being "clutch" allows for moral judgment on the players--players who do well are displaying a certain nobility of character, while those who didn't do well are showing an ugly weakness to theirs.

It's possible that "clutch players" exist. I've never seen good studies on it basketball. In baseball, I've seen a number of studies on player performance in situations that are considered "clutch time": stretch runs, playoffs / runners in scoring position / close and late. And the conclusions are generally that players tend to show no real gains or losses. Derek Jeter, the current crown prince of clutch in baseball, show very little difference in his numbers between all those situations. Alex Rodriguez, at least at one time the prince of "unclutch" also didn't show much difference in his stats between the different situations. The difference is that people especially remember Jeter's heroics and especially remembered Rodriguez's failures. "Mr. Clutch" Reggie Jackson had a number of stinker post-seasons...but it's his heroics in the post-season that are remembered.

Maybe basketball players are different...I'm not saying it's impossible that there may be real differences between NBA players in pressure situations. But without compelling evidence, I tend to think there isn't. Neither of us believes in the ability to "magically elevate" one's game and I think that NBA players are a collection of the ones who have already shown they can handle pressure, so the difference between them are negligible. Just as the collection of NASA rocket scientists are a population of people who have already shown they're great at math...so it's unlikely that the differences between the best and worst of them, in terms of math ability, is significant.

And you're right that there are a number of selection criteria that go into reaching the NBA and you don't have to be at the very highest level in all of them. But folding under pressure impacts your entire performance. If you couldn't handle the pressure knowing a scholarship was on the line or knowing that exposure in the NCAA tournament or a draft position was on the line...your entire performance, and numbers, would fall. So it seems to me that a player who isn't good at dealing with pressure would be an extreme long-shot to reach the very highest level.

 

[LittleAlex]

Mo Williams isn't much of an upgrade to Miller and certainly isn't worth trading anyone decent for. If Mo came over in a deal that only had Martell, Rudy, Bayless, Donte and Pendergraph then I would be all for it. Anything else would mean that Portland got ripped off.

 

[Minstrel]

Mo Williams isn't much of an upgrade to Miller and certainly isn't worth trading anyone decent for. If Mo came over in a deal that only had Martell, Rudy, Bayless, Donte and Pendergraph then I would be all for it. Anything else would mean that Portland got ripped off.

I don't consider Williams an upgrade on Miller at all. I think he's a worse player. He may be a slightly better fit, but even that I consider only arguable after seeing Roy and Miller acclimate over time. I think Williams is currently better than Bayless, but I wouldn't deal Bayless for him...I think they're similar types of players, Williams is only a little ahead of him and Bayless is much younger.

If Portland could get Williams for players like Webster or Rudy (and/or Pendergraph/Cunningham), I'd pull the trigger.

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

update from ESPN Insider

It's been reported the Cavs are currently gauging the market on Mo Williams.
And on Tuesday, one team that was reportedly showing interest was the Blazers.
Well, it looks as if Williams is following these things.
On Wednesday afternoon, he tweeted: "Pls don't trade me, I'm not ready to go. I'm begging. My work ain't done yet. I'm on both knees....pls. I'm serious."
Brian Windhorst of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tracked Williams down Wednesday afternoon, and Williams had this to say: "It has been bothering me, it is a little nerve-wracking and frustrating. Especially from the simple fact that you don't want to leave. But there's a lot of things going with the team, and you never know what is going to happen. It is something you can't control and it is part of the business."
Williams may indeed get his wish. According to Windhorst, "multiple league executives have said that the Cavs have had some trade talks with Williams but they are not looking to trade him, just to get a feel for his market if they decide to make a move."
So, as of right now, Williams doesn't appear to be on the move. Though there still exists a possibility it could happen at some point in the near future.

 

[mook]

But folding under pressure impacts your entire performance. If you couldn't handle the pressure knowing a scholarship was on the line or knowing that exposure in the NCAA tournament or a draft position was on the line...your entire performance, and numbers, would fall. So it seems to me that a player who isn't good at dealing with pressure would be an extreme long-shot to reach the very highest level.

I don't think any starting-quality NBA players "fold" under pressure. I do think a number of them perform slightly less well. It's easiest to see in FT%, since it's the same shot with no defender. Some guys (Kevin Garnett, Steve Nash, Robert Horry, Michael Jordan, Drexler, Ben Wallace) see minuscule differences in their FT% between regular season and playoffs. Some see greater:
Player: Career RegSeason/Playoffs
Shaq: .527/.505
Reggie Miller: .933/.893
Kobe Bryant: .838/.815
Trevor Ariza: .658/.542
Mo Williams: .869/.787
Lamar Odom: .701/.638
Cliff Robinson: .722/.636

Rick Fox, James Posey and Dikembe Mutombo did see slight increases in their FT% in the playoffs, though.

Maybe the small falloff in some of those players (Kobe, Reggie) might be due to fatigue of playing a ton of minutes.

But I think there are also definitely players in the league who are more prone to getting rattled under pressure than others.

 

[Minstrel]

I don't think any starting-quality NBA players "fold" under pressure. I do think a number of them perform slightly less well. It's easiest to see in FT%, since it's the same shot with no defender. Some guys (Kevin Garnett, Steve Nash, Robert Horry, Michael Jordan, Drexler, Ben Wallace) see minuscule differences in their FT% between regular season and playoffs. Some see greater:
Player: Career RegSeason/Playoffs
Shaq: .527/.505
Reggie Miller: .933/.893
Kobe Bryant: .838/.815
Trevor Ariza: .658/.542
Mo Williams: .869/.787
Lamar Odom: .701/.638
Cliff Robinson: .722/.636

Rick Fox, James Posey and Dikembe Mutombo did see slight increases in their FT% in the playoffs, though.

Maybe the small falloff in some of those players (Kobe, Reggie) might be due to fatigue of playing a ton of minutes.

But I think there are also definitely players in the league who are more prone to getting rattled under pressure than others.

The list has players like Reggie Miller and Kobe Bryant who are hailed as premier "clutch" players in NBA history. Doesn't that randomness in who shows up give you pause? I mean, you can always explain away the results that don't fit the theory (like saying maybe they were just fatigued), but IMO the better default is that it's random fluctuation. If you take any arbitrary split (for example, free throws on Tuesday nights), you will find a list of people who are above their career norms and players who are below their career norms.

I don't think Kobe and Miller get "rattled" under pressure. Nor do I think Shaq does or Ariza or Williams.

 

[mook]

I don't think Kobe and Miller get "rattled" under pressure. Nor do I think Shaq does or Ariza or Williams.

I guess we just disagree. I've seen guys in games look like they absolutely hate the idea of having to step up to the line. Shaq is an absolute classic. There are games I've seen where he clearly seemed to be rattled.

It's not everybody. In fact, I suspect the majority of NBA players aren't really affected by pressure. But I think there are also guys (like Shaq) who have such an immense talent in some areas that they can get buy with sub-par mental toughness.

 

[Minstrel]

I guess we just disagree. I've seen guys in games look like they absolutely hate the idea of having to step up to the line. Shaq is an absolute classic. There are games I've seen where he clearly seemed to be rattled.

Hmm, that's strange. I had a different impression. I had the sense that he usually didn't give a shit at the line, but when he started getting hacked at the ends of games that mattered, he got pissed and wanted to take the free throws. I also remember him saying "I make the ones that matter" (not true, but also not suggesting a lack of confidence under pressure) and I remember a few Lakers fan friends of mine in the early 2000s saying "Kobe is money at the line the first three quarters and misses in the fourth quarter. Shaq misses them in the first three quarters and gets better in the fourth quarter."

Not that either of those things have much to do with reality, but it just shows (me, at least) that I wasn't alone in my impression about Shaq and free throws.

 

[mook]

I always got the impression that he pretended not to care, but it bothered him underneath. There's just something in his body language that always said to me, "Let's just get this free throw stuff over with as quickly as possible so I can go back to being a great basketball player."

I really think he's always been kind of embarrassed about it. If I were him, I know I would be.

 

[MARIS61]

Williams is weaker than Bayless, or even Koponen, so I hope this "rumor" is nonsense.

If KP is even considering Williams, we need a new GM.