The Great Playoff Chase

[DHawes22]

With 1 game to play, each game's impact is magnified in the playoff standings, not only just the Trail Blazers games but for every team vying for a playoff spot out West. This thread will be where the playoff standings will be updated daily, how the tie-breakers will work out against various teams, and to keep track of our opponents' schedule as well.

Magic Number: 0


Standings (via NBA.com) (Updated April 14, 2014) -

Tiebreaker Scenarios​

Tiebreakers -

Portland Owns Tiebreakers Over:
Oklahoma City (2-2 Season Series, Portland Has 13-3 Division Record, Oklahoma City 11-5)
Golden State (2-2 Season Series - Conference Record 30-21 || 29-21)


Portland Loses Tiebreakers To:
San Antonio (2-2 Season Series, Southwest Division Leader)
Los Angeles Clippers (1-1 Season Series, Pacific Division Leader)
Houston (1-3 Season Series - No More Games Remaining)
Dallas (1-2 Season Series - No More Games Remaining)
Memphis (1-2 Season Series - No More Games Remaining)
Phoenix (1-3 Season Series - No More Games Remaining)



Schedule Difficulty (Updated April 14, 2014)-

#1 San Antonio: Games remaining: 2 (1 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. West: 2
#2 Oklahoma City: Games remaining: 2 (1 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 0, vs. West: 1
#3 Los Angeles: Games remaining: 2 (1 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. West: 2
#4 Houston: Games remaining: 2 (1 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. West: 2
#5 Portland: Games remaining: 1 (1 Home, 0 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. West: 1
#6 Golden State: Games remaining: 2 (1 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. West: 2
#7 Dallas: Games remaining: 1 (0 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. West: 1
#8 Memphis: Games remaining: 2 (1 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 2, vs. West: 2
#9 Phoenix: Games remaining: 2 (1 Home, 1 Away)
vs. +.500: 1, vs. West: 2

And If The Playoffs Started Today (April 14, 2014)-

Monday March 3rd, 2014 Games To Watch (Games Updated Throughout Comments)-

Portland vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Root For: Trail Blazers
Reason: Duh.

Memphis @ Washington
Root For: Wizards
Reason: It's a longshot to play the Grizzlies in the first round, but they are a team that possesses a lot of postseason experience and their defense is capable of giving us fits. I'd rather this team not make the playoffs.

 

[THE HCP]

Attention all rookies........THIS is how you start a quality thread! Well done!

 

[HailBlazers]

Wow just 24 games left? This is going to be good.

 

[DHawes22]

I'll do my best to keep this updated on a daily basis. After first glance, we need to work on these tiebreakers.

 

[THE HCP]

Man, there are going to be some big time scoreboard watching down the stretch!

 

[Boise Blazer]

Big Big reps on this thread especially if you stay on top of keeping it up to date.

 

[Natebishop3]

I actually like a matchup against Golden State. I think we match up well with them and we'd have HCA.

 

[jccordano]

Actually we own the tie breaker with OKC. As we have the best in division record. So if we tied OKC we would own that tie breaker.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

I'll do my best to keep this updated on a daily basis. After first glance, we need to work on these tiebreakers.

Thanks for starting this thread.

Earlier in the year, I felt better about the tiebreakers (we had OKC, SA, and other teams - aside from the Suns and Rockets- where we wanted them). Don't feel so great now.

 

[DHawes22]

Actually we own the tie breaker with OKC. As we have the best in division record. So if we tied OKC we would own that tie breaker.

Good point. I gave OKC the nod, because they currently lead the division, which trumps all other tiebreakers.

 

[maxiep]

Can we sticky this thread?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Good point. I gave OKC the nod, because they currently lead the division, which trumps all other tiebreakers.

Yes, but since we're IN the same division with them, that tie-breaker is irrelevant to Portland.

 

[Natebishop3]

Can we sticky this thread?

We already have too many stickies. They're all rules for the games.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

We already have too many stickies. They're all rules for the games.

I sticky'd the thread because I told Dustin I would if he started this thread. I will see about merging the rules threads for the two games we have in a little while.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I'm going to un-sticky the thread because as soon as it was sticky'd everyone stopped posting in it, lol.

 

[Natebishop3]

I'm going to un-sticky the thread because as soon as it was sticky'd everyone stopped posting in it, lol.

You broke it!

 

[DHawes22]

Ideal Scenario: 3 seed vs 6 seed Mavericks - Spurs end up as the 2 seed

I think going through Dallas/San Antonio is about the best we could hope for en route to the WCF

 

[Natebishop3]

Ideal Scenario: 3 seed vs 6 seed Mavericks - Spurs end up as the 2 seed

I think going through Dallas/San Antonio is about the best we could hope for en route to the WCF

Yeah, that wouldn't be too bad, but haven't we had trouble with Dallas in the past few years? Carlisle knows Stotts and he's done a decent job stopping Lillard.

 

[DHawes22]

Yeah, that wouldn't be too bad, but haven't we had trouble with Dallas in the past few years? Carlisle knows Stotts and he's done a decent job stopping Lillard.

January's dominant win in Dallas kind of erased all doubts I had about playing Dallas. We never play well there, yet we were up 20 in the bat of an eye.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Just looking at the remaining schedules, I think the Clippers overtake us for the 3rd seed. They are playing well with CP3 back and their remaining schedule is, by far, the easiest of the teams battling for HCA.

So, that leaves it down to us and Houston for the 4th and 5th seeds. Right now, Houston holds the tie breaker - we are 1-2 against the Rockets. Circle next Sunday, March 9 on your calendar. That is our 4th, and final game against the Rockets - in Houston. If we win that game, we currently hold the next tiebreaker - conference record. We are 23-14, they are 23-16. Winning that game evens up the first tie breaker and widens our lead in the second tie breaker.

If we get Houston in the first round, that's a tough match-up for us. I'd REALLY like to have HCA in that series if we face them in the 1st round.

BNM

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Just looking at the remaining schedules, I think the Clippers overtake us for the 3rd seed. They are playing well with CP3 back and their remaining schedule is, by far, the easiest of the teams battling for HCA.

So, that leaves it down to us and Houston for the 4th and 5th seeds. Right now, Houston holds the tie breaker - we are 1-2 against the Rockets. Circle next Sunday, March 9 on your calendar. That is our 4th, and final game against the Rockets - in Houston. If we win that game, we currently hold the next tiebreaker - conference record. We are 23-14, they are 23-16. Winning that game evens up the first tie breaker and widens our lead in the second tie breaker.

If we get Houston in the first round, that's a tough match-up for us. I'd REALLY like to have HCA in that series if we face them in the 1st round.

BNM

I was feeling pretty good, overall, about where the Blazers were and their potential to win a first-round series until I read your post.

Thanks for crapping on my excitement and bringing back my realism.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I was feeling pretty good, overall, about where the Blazers were and their potential to win a first-round series until I read your post.

Thanks for crapping on my excitement and bringing back my realism.

I was actually thinking about starting a similar thread on Saturday morning, but it would have been just about us, the Clippers and Rockets in the race for HCA in the West. I looked up the remaining schedules for all 3 teams and projected wins and losses, but got busy with other things. That's how I came to the conclusion that the Clippers will pass us for the 3rd seed. The good news is, if it comes down to the very end for us vs. the Clipper for the 3rd seed, we would control our own fate. We play the Clippers, in Portland in the last game of the regular season. Winning that game, would also give us the tie breaker vs. the Clipps. So, not all hope is lost.

Concerning us vs. Houston, I do have some good news for you. While Houston doesn't have any road trips longer than 3 games remaining, they play MIA twice, IND once and OKC twice in the next month. They also have one game left against the Clippers, who will be battling for HCA and the Spurs, which may be a gimme. It's the second to last game of the season and if the Spurs have HCA locked up, Pop will rest his starters and raise the white flag.

Yes, thanks to the two remaining 5-game road trips, we have a tough schedule, but we also have a lot of winnable games. If we can take care of business and win the games we should win, and we beat the Clippers and Rockets head-to-head, we could still hold onto the 3rd seed, or at least claim the 4th seed and HCA in the first round - which I think will be HUGE for this young team.

I don't see us getting past the first round if we drop to the 5th seed and face the Rockets in the first round. They are a tough match up for us, and they have two superstars that get superstar treatment from the refs. The good news is one of those superstars doesn't take advantage of all those extra free throws. The bad news is even when he's missing his FTs, those superstar calls can get Robin Lopez in foul trouble and Dwight Howard has already shown us what happens when he's guarded by Joel Freeland and Meyers Leonard - it's not pretty. And, for some reason, Howard seems to channel his inner Calvin Murphy when he plays against us (19/27, or .704 FT% against us this year). Hopefully, he wouldn't shoot as well from the line against us with the added pressure of the playoffs. At the very least, he is due to regress to his normal ~.500 FT% against us.

BNM

 

[BillBrasky]

Tiebreakers -

Portland Owns Tiebreakers Over:
San Antonio (2-1 Season Series Lead)
Golden State (1-1 Season Series, Portland Has 23-16 Conference Record, Golden State 21-16)
Dallas (1-1 Season Series, Portland Has 23-16 Conference Record, Golden State 18-16)

Portland Loses Tiebreakers To:
Oklahoma City (2-2 Season Series, Northwest Division Leader)
Los Angeles Clippers (1-1 Season Series, Pacific Division Leader)
Houston (1-2 Season Series)
Phoenix (1-2 Season Series)
Memphis (0-1 Season Series)

It's too bad that the "tiebreakers" and "playoff tiebreakers" contradict each other in regards to the divisional and conference records.

Two Teams Tied
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division.
(2) Better winning percentage in games against each other.
(3) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if tied teams are in same division).
(4) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference.
(5) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position).
(6) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in opposite conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position)
(7) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”).

Unless OKC drops some conference games and we win some, our best goal could be home court advantage in the first round.

 

[Natebishop3]

Just looking at the remaining schedules, I think the Clippers overtake us for the 3rd seed. They are playing well with CP3 back and their remaining schedule is, by far, the easiest of the teams battling for HCA.

So, that leaves it down to us and Houston for the 4th and 5th seeds. Right now, Houston holds the tie breaker - we are 1-2 against the Rockets. Circle next Sunday, March 9 on your calendar. That is our 4th, and final game against the Rockets - in Houston. If we win that game, we currently hold the next tiebreaker - conference record. We are 23-14, they are 23-16. Winning that game evens up the first tie breaker and widens our lead in the second tie breaker.

If we get Houston in the first round, that's a tough match-up for us. I'd REALLY like to have HCA in that series if we face them in the 1st round.

BNM

Houston is a worst case scenario for us.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Houston is a worst case scenario for us.

Canzano agrees, though he says he is a shocked a proclaimed Blazers fan would not be a complete homer.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Houston is a worst case scenario for us.

Yep, which is why I think it's important that we have HCA if we get them.

Of course, there is also the possibility Houston moves up to the 3rd seed and we end up facing the Clippers in the 1st round. I already dread the constant whining from Doc and CP3 if that happens. Man, a 7 game series with whining after every call/non-call would be brutal.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

Yep, which is why I think it's important that we have HCA if we get them.

Of course, there is also the possibility Houston moves up to the 3rd seed and we end up facing the Clippers in the 1st round. I already dread the constant whining from Doc and CP3 if that happens. Man, a 7 game series with whining after every call/non-call would be brutal.

BNM

We had HCA against Houston back in the Roy days, and it didn't help at all. I would tank just to avoid those fuckers.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

I was actually thinking about starting a similar thread on Saturday morning, but it would have been just about us, the Clippers and Rockets in the race for HCA in the West. I looked up the remaining schedules for all 3 teams and projected wins and losses, but got busy with other things. That's how I came to the conclusion that the Clippers will pass us for the 3rd seed. The good news is, if it comes down to the very end for us vs. the Clipper for the 3rd seed, we would control our own fate. We play the Clippers, in Portland in the last game of the regular season. Winning that game, would also give us the tie breaker vs. the Clipps. So, not all hope is lost.

Concerning us vs. Houston, I do have some good news for you. While Houston doesn't have any road trips longer than 3 games remaining, they play MIA twice, IND once and OKC twice in the next month. They also have one game left against the Clippers, who will be battling for HCA and the Spurs, which may be a gimme. It's the second to last game of the season and if the Spurs have HCA locked up, Pop will rest his starters and raise the white flag.

Yes, thanks to the two remaining 5-game road trips, we have a tough schedule, but we also have a lot of winnable games. If we can take care of business and win the games we should win, and we beat the Clippers and Rockets head-to-head, we could still hold onto the 3rd seed, or at least claim the 4th seed and HCA in the first round - which I think will be HUGE for this young team.

I don't see us getting past the first round if we drop to the 5th seed and face the Rockets in the first round. They are a tough match up for us, and they have two superstars that get superstar treatment from the refs. The good news is one of those superstars doesn't take advantage of all those extra free throws. The bad news is even when he's missing his FTs, those superstar calls can get Robin Lopez in foul trouble and Dwight Howard has already shown us what happens when he's guarded by Joel Freeland and Meyers Leonard - it's not pretty. And, for some reason, Howard seems to channel his inner Calvin Murphy when he plays against us (19/27, or .704 FT% against us this year). Hopefully, he wouldn't shoot as well from the line against us with the added pressure of the playoffs. At the very least, he is due to regress to his normal ~.500 FT% against us.

BNM

Totally agreed, actually. I had done the same thing (reviewed the remaining games over the weekend) and had pretty much come to the same conclusions. The biggest curveball in all of this is that I'm not really sure what we have. We're 59 games in, and I don't really think we have a clue as to what we really have. We were on fire to start the season. Beyond that, we've been inconsistent, often playing equal to our daily opponent (well, just slightly better or worse). During our struggles, we lost to teams we should not have lost to. We blew some games we had under control. And then, we maybe turned it around while one of our All-Stars was injured and our frontcourt was decimated.

If the Blazers finish the season the way they started it, the sky is the limit. I have no doubts we'll end up making the playoffs, but I'm just curious which team we're going to see for the remaining 23 games and beyond.

 

[damianlillard]

blazers need to match up against dallas in 1st round then go against spurs the next round, LA will take over the 1st round and in the 2nd round Lillard and Batum will explode against spurs

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Bring on Houston, we owe them one.

I know they have Harden and Dwight and that Beverly has caused Lillard problems. But I'll put my money on Lillard coming through when it counts and Dwight disappearing in the playoffs.