The Official Around the NBA: March 2019 edition (1 Viewer)

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in
trailblazer18 said:
Has anyone checked out Utah's schedule? They might win out. Their last two games are the toughest left. They could easily win 10 more in a row and be on a 14 game win streak.
Click to expand...

yeah, it's an easy one. I'd guess they'll hit 51 wins if they don't blow an easy game. Spurs have an easy one too and I'd expect 50 wins, maybe 51. Portland has to win the games they will be favored in because San Antonio will own the tiebreaker, and Utah is likely to own it

it's entirely possible OKC slips to 7th seed. Their schedule is the most difficult

for Portland, I'd say Denver is out of reach. The math is just too negative and Denver will own the tie-breaker. Houston has a 1 game lead, but Portland owns the tie-breaker. I'd still give Houston the edge for 3rd seed, but Blazers have a chance

the biggest issue for me isn't Blazers getting HCA...it's making sure Dame isn't worn out by the end of the season. He had to play 40 minutes last night to insure the win. A couple of extra losses but keeping Dame 'rested' is a better outcome
 
wizenheimer said:
yeah, it's an easy one. I'd guess they'll hit 51 wins if they don't blow an easy game. Spurs have an easy one too and I'd expect 50 wins, maybe 51. Portland has to win the games they will be favored in because San Antonio will own the tiebreaker, and Utah is likely to own it

it's entirely possible OKC slips to 7th seed. Their schedule is the most difficult

for Portland, I'd say Denver is out of reach. The math is just too negative and Denver will own the tie-breaker. Houston has a 1 game lead, but Portland owns the tie-breaker. I'd still give Houston the edge for 3rd seed, but Blazers have a chance

the biggest issue for me isn't Blazers getting HCA...it's making sure Dame isn't worn out by the end of the season. He had to play 40 minutes last night to insure the win. A couple of extra losses but keeping Dame 'rested' is a better outcome
Click to expand...
If we want a championship, top 3 seed is necessary. Only 1995 Houston won title with worse seed and they were defending champs. Dame can handle the workload. He’s prepared his body his whole life for situations like this. And he had the right idea last night. Get the teammates involved. Get Hood and Curry going. Don’t try to do it by himself. We’ll be fine without CJ if he continues to play this way. SG is our deepest position and Dame knows this.
 
Who suck the most? Tyreke Evans Or Evan Turner?
 
Pacers plays hard every night, always a close game.
 
Blazers have a 31% chance at a Top 3 seed with 51 wins, and a 64% chance with 52 wins.
 
BonesJones said:
Blazers have a 31% chance at a Top 3 seed with 51 wins, and a 64% chance with 52 wins.
Click to expand...

how is that calculated?

it sure looks like Denver is out of reach. If Portland hits 52 Denver would have to go 4-9 for Portland to pass them. That window seems closed

Houston...maybe. Portland owns the tiebreaker. But to hit 52, Blazers would need to go 9-3, and Houston could still end up 3rd seed by going 8-3. Portland sure can't blow any more games like they did against Memphis and Dallas
 
wizenheimer said:
how is that calculated?

it sure looks like Denver is out of reach. If Portland hits 52 Denver would have to go 4-9 for Portland to pass them. That window seems closed

Houston...maybe. Portland owns the tiebreaker. But to hit 52, Blazers would need to go 9-3, and Houston could still end up 3rd seed by going 8-3. Portland sure can't blow any more games like they did against Memphis and Dallas
Click to expand...
Playoffstatus.com. I don't know the formula but it seems pretty accurate.
 
wizenheimer said:
how is that calculated?

it sure looks like Denver is out of reach. If Portland hits 52 Denver would have to go 4-9 for Portland to pass them. That window seems closed

Houston...maybe. Portland owns the tiebreaker. But to hit 52, Blazers would need to go 9-3, and Houston could still end up 3rd seed by going 8-3. Portland sure can't blow any more games like they did against Memphis and Dallas
Click to expand...
Portland has a 5% chance at the 2 seed if they win 52 games.

2 of those wins would likely have to be against Denver and Denver would have to go 4-7 in remaining games. Given that they have a tough remaining schedule but Houston could also be #2, 5% seems like good odds.
 
I was just trying to look at all the playoff tie-breakers with how tight the races are. It looks like Portland only has the advantage over Houston. All the other teams, Portland would loose a tie-breaker with. Here is the criteria.
  • Two-Team Tiebreaker:
    • 1. Better record in head-to-head games
    • 2. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
    • 3. Higher winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
    • 4. Higher winning percentage in conference games
    • 5. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
    • 6. Higher winning percentage against playoff teams in opposite conference
    • 7. Higher point differential between points scored and points allowed

Three-Team Tiebreaker:
  • 1. Division winner (this criterion is applied regardless of whether the tied teams are in the same division)
  • 2. Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
  • 3. Highest winning percentage within division (if teams are in the same division)
  • 4. Highest winning percentage in conference games
  • 5. Highest winning percentage against playoff teams in own conference
  • 6. Highest point differential between points scored and points allowed
Click to expand...
- Houston - Portland wins with 2-1 season series.
- San Antonio - Series tied 2-2, Spurs win on Conference Games (29-19 vs 23-22). This will be too much for Portland to make up.
- Oklahoma - Thunder win with 4-0 season series.
- Utah - Series tied 2-2, Jazz win on Divisional Games (7-8 vs 4-9). This will be too much for Portland to make up.

Moral of the story, Portland better keep winning.
 
tester551 said:
I was just trying to look at all the playoff tie-breakers with how tight the races are. It looks like Portland only has the advantage over Houston. All the other teams, Portland would loose a tie-breaker with. Here is the criteria.
- Houston - Portland wins with 2-1 season series.
- San Antonio - Series tied 2-2, Spurs win on Conference Games (29-19 vs 23-22). This will be too much for Portland to make up.
- Oklahoma - Thunder win with 4-0 season series.
- Utah - Series tied 2-2, Jazz win on Divisional Games (7-8 vs 4-9). This will be too much for Portland to make up.

Moral of the story, Portland better keep winning.
Click to expand...

In your comparison of Utah, they are ahead in the loss column by only one game for division record and 2 games in conference record. Both teams have 7 games left against conference opponents.

Blazers have 3 games left against the division while Utah has one. The key will be the Denver games as we play them in a home and away and Denver plays them at home. We also have a 2 game lead on Utah right now.

Like you said though, keep winning would take care of a lot.
 
CupWizier said:
In your comparison of Utah, they are ahead in the loss column by only one game for division record and 2 games in conference record. Both teams have 7 games left against conference opponents.

Blazers have 3 games left against the division while Utah has one. The key will be the Denver games as we play them in a home and away and Denver plays them at home. We also have a 2 game lead on Utah right now.

Like you said though, keep winning would take care of a lot.
Click to expand...
Now you're making me do the math. The question--is it possible for Portland to end tied with Utah and win the tie breaker?
  • Each team has 12 games remaining--7 in conference, and 5 out of conference.
  • Portland is 2 games ahead of Utah overall, but Utah is 2 games ahead of Portland in conference.
  • This means that Utah's non-conference record the rest of the way would have to be 4 games better than Portland's for them to make up two games in overall record while the Blazers simultaneously make up two games in conference record.
  • Since each team has 5 eastern conference games remaining, Portland would have to go no better than 1-4 against Detroit, Brooklyn, Chicago, Atlanta, and Detroit (again) in order to make that tie possible.
So conclusion--while extremely unlikely, it could theoretically happen.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Now you're making me do the math. The question--is it possible for Portland to end tied with Utah and win the tie breaker?
  • Each team has 12 games remaining--7 in conference, and 5 out of conference.
  • Portland is 2 games ahead of Utah overall, but Utah is 2 games ahead of Portland in conference.
  • This means that Utah's non-conference record the rest of the way would have to be 4 games better than Portland's for them to make up two games in overall record while the Blazers simultaneously make up two games in conference record.
  • Since each team has 5 eastern conference games remaining, Portland would have to go no better than 1-4 against Detroit, Brooklyn, Chicago, Atlanta, and Detroit (again) in order to make that tie possible.
So conclusion--while extremely unlikely, it could theoretically happen.
Click to expand...

Yep, as the wind down to the end will be very interesting as there are so many potential outcomes it's mind boggling. What's good for us is that OKC is playing a home and away with Toronto which could definitely change the picture especially if Toronto knocks them off twice and we can get a couple wins this week.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Now you're making me do the math. The question--is it possible for Portland to end tied with Utah and win the tie breaker?
  • Each team has 12 games remaining--7 in conference, and 5 out of conference.
  • Portland is 2 games ahead of Utah overall, but Utah is 2 games ahead of Portland in conference.
  • This means that Utah's non-conference record the rest of the way would have to be 4 games better than Portland's for them to make up two games in overall record while the Blazers simultaneously make up two games in conference record.
  • Since each team has 5 eastern conference games remaining, Portland would have to go no better than 1-4 against Detroit, Brooklyn, Chicago, Atlanta, and Detroit (again) in order to make that tie possible.
So conclusion--while extremely unlikely, it could theoretically happen.
Click to expand...

unless I have things wrong....Portland and Utah are in the same division, so the 2nd tiebreaker is division records. Utah leads that 7-8 vs 4-9. If Utah wins their home game against Denver on April 9, then own the tie-breaker; Portland couldn't match them. If they lose that game, Portland would still have to win all three of their remaining division games: @Minny, @Denver, Denver in order to push the tie-breaker to conference records. I'm seeing 5 remaining probable conference wins for Utah pushing their record in-conference to 30-22. Blazers would have to go 7-0 just to be even in conference record; If Utah goes 4-3, Blazers would still have to go 7-0 to win tiebreaker, and 6-1 to push the decision to the 4th tiebreaker which is winning% against conference playoff teams. I have no clue which team has the advantage there

sorry if that's what you were saying and I didn't grok it

by the way, I don't even want to think about tiebreakers is it's a 3-team tie, but I suspect if it's Portland-OKC-Utah, Blazers would be 3rd, 2-4 record against the other two
 
Jazz will be the number 4 seed and Blazers the number 5 seed. I think we can beat them on a 7 game series.
 
looks like Houston ran into the same kind of buzz-saw in Memphis that Portland did
 
Memphis are the Giant Killers! Hang in there Grizz beat the Rockets
 
Grizz blew their lead, game is in OT now
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)

Featured content

Back
Top