The Official Around the NBA: March 2019 edition

[Boob-No-More]

They swept the series against us this season. That's the doomiest and gloomiest scenerio possible.

Doomier and gloomier than dropping from 3rd to 8th post All Star Game?

Which would you rather be right now, POR three games up on OKC in the loss column with an easy remaining schedule, or OKC falling fast with a very difficult remaining schedule, but owning the tie breaker over POR?

In another forum I frequent, OCK fans were bashing all of Westbrook, Schoeder, Adams, Donovan and even PG13 during and after their loss to MEM last night. Their fans have a valid reason to be a bit pessimistic right now.

But then, some POR fans never actually need a reason to be pessimistic. It's just in their DNA.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

This is perfectly fine by me. This is what good teams do.

BTW, a reflective stat for this has been Dame and Nurk's on/off +/- currently at +16 per 100 possessions for both of them. Which is ridiculous and in the MVP territory. It's also an indication of how crappy our bench has been even while putting up good raw numbers. Dame/Nurk build leads, the bench gives it away.

Any idea what the on/off +/- is for just our top 3 or 4 bench players - the guys who will actually see significant PT in the playoffs? It sure seems like our end of bench guys are about -80 per 100 possessions as they consistently turn a 20+ point 4th quarter lead into a single digit affair in less than 6 minutes.

Agreed that Dame and Nurk have been phenomenal this season, but our bench, at least the 6-9 spots seems much better than years past. Maybe they aren't actually a positive +/-, just less negative than years past.

BNM

 

[illmatic99]

Any idea what the on/off +/- is for just our top 3 or 4 bench players - the guys who will actually see significant PT in the playoffs? It sure seems like our end of bench guys are about -80 per 100 possessions as they consistently turn a 20+ point 4th quarter lead into a single digit affair in less than 6 minutes.

Agreed that Dame and Nurk have been phenomenal this season, but our bench, at least the 6-9 spots seems much better than years past. Maybe they aren't actually a positive +/-, just less negative than years past.

BNM

I wish there was a way to see these splits home/road. I'd venture to say those negative numbers for our bench players is largely skewed by how shitty they are on the road. And Kanter really needs to get his shit together.

 

[illmatic99]

As a comparison, here's how it looked last year.



We were deeper last year seemingly, but are more top heavy this year going against what all the pundits are saying about why we are better this year. Nurk's improvement has been massive. As has CJ's apparently.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

As a comparison, here's how it looked last year.

View attachment 25271

We were deeper last year seemingly, but are more top heavy this year going against what all the pundits are saying about why we are better this year. Nurk's improvement has been massive. As has CJ's apparently.

All of that is explainable by the fact that CJ and Dame have played 85+% of their minutes together this year, as compared to 65% in years past. And if I'm not mistaken, Nurk plays almost exclusively with Dame on the floor as well. (BBref confirms--1820 of Nurk's 1908 minutes have been with Dame).

The team works when Dame is playing; it doesn't when he isn't. It's basically as simple as that.

 

[CupWizier]

Doomier and gloomier than dropping from 3rd to 8th post All Star Game?

Which would you rather be right now, POR three games up on OKC in the loss column with an easy remaining schedule, or OKC falling fast with a very difficult remaining schedule, but owning the tie breaker over POR?

In another forum I frequent, OCK fans were bashing all of Westbrook, Schoeder, Adams, Donovan and even PG13 during and after their loss to MEM last night. Their fans have a valid reason to be a bit pessimistic right now.

But then, some POR fans never actually need a reason to be pessimistic. It's just in their DNA.

BNM

Awe, it's nice to have you back adding a voice of reason. Very well put.

 

[Boob-No-More]

View attachment 25270

I wish there was a way to see these splits home/road. I'd venture to say those negative numbers for our bench players is largely skewed by how shitty they are on the road. And Kanter really needs to get his shit together.

Interesting. So, Curry, Hood and Layman are only slightly negative. That's what I suspected.

And yeah, our end of bench guys have been atrocious.

The fact that Kanter has a worse on/off than Meyers is depressing.

At least Zach's defense helps make up (partially) for his hands of stone on offense. There is still hope the game will slow down for him and he'll become a solid 2-way player. He's still very young and has shown flashes.

At this point, Stotts will need to juggle our back up bigs based on match ups, situations and who is playing well on a particular night. At least he has a variety of options. The bad news is none of them are especially appealing.

BNM

 

[BigGameDamian]

WoW! Jimmer Forget gets another chance.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

What I'd be interested to see is how well the bench mob might perform with Nurkic rather than Kanter. Like, we know that Dame plays the entirety of the first quarter (and 3rd). Why not sub Nurk out relatively early in the first, and bring Nurk back at the start of the 2nd when Dame sits. Perhaps Nurk's defense and facilitating alongside Turner/Curry/Layman could make for a more effective 2nd unit.

 

[illmatic99]

All of that is explainable by the fact that CJ and Dame have played 85+% of their minutes together this year, as compared to 65% in years past. And if I'm not mistaken, Nurk plays almost exclusively with Dame on the floor as well. (BBref confirms--1820 of Nurk's 1908 minutes have been with Dame).

The team works when Dame is playing; it doesn't when he isn't. It's basically as simple as that.

Yup. Less staggering with Dame/CJ has helped CJ. But Nurk had similar minutes WITH Dame last yr, so he has improved more than what can be explained by mins with Dame this seaosn

 

[illmatic99]

What I'd be interested to see is how well the bench mob might perform with Nurkic rather than Kanter. Like, we know that Dame plays the entirety of the first quarter (and 3rd). Why not sub Nurk out relatively early in the first, and bring Nurk back at the start of the 2nd when Dame sits. Perhaps Nurk's defense and facilitating alongside Turner/Curry/Layman could make for a more effective 2nd unit.

Wish Terry would mess around with rotations a bit like this before the playoffs

 

[Propagandist]

Doomier and gloomier than dropping from 3rd to 8th post All Star Game?

Which would you rather be right now, POR three games up on OKC in the loss column with an easy remaining schedule, or OKC falling fast with a very difficult remaining schedule, but owning the tie breaker over POR?

In another forum I frequent, OCK fans were bashing all of Westbrook, Schoeder, Adams, Donovan and even PG13 during and after their loss to MEM last night. Their fans have a valid reason to be a bit pessimistic right now.

But then, some POR fans never actually need a reason to be pessimistic. It's just in their DNA.

BNM

Don't be daft. You play a team 4 times and you lose 4 times. Unarguably the worst possible outcome, factually more doomy and gloomy.

 

[Boob-No-More]

All of that is explainable by the fact that CJ and Dame have played 85+% of their minutes together this year, as compared to 65% in years past. And if I'm not mistaken, Nurk plays almost exclusively with Dame on the floor as well. (BBref confirms--1820 of Nurk's 1908 minutes have been with Dame).

The team works when Dame is playing; it doesn't when he isn't. It's basically as simple as that.

I was going to mention the same thing about C.J. playing more with Dame and less with the second unit this year. I think that accounts for most of his "improvement".

After a slow start this season, he's also shooting the ball much better this year than last. Of course, that could also be attributed to playing next to Dame who draws a lot of attention from the defense. creating more open looks for C.J. The good news is last season's year long shooting slump seems to be a thing of the past. His current TS% isn't as high as it was two years ago, but it's the second highest of his career and has been much better in Jan, Feb and Mar (especially) than it was in Oct, Nov and Dec - a favorable trend heading into the playoffs.

His 3FG% prior to Jan 1 was .337. Since Jan 1, it's been .420. Yeah, part of that may be playing with Dame, but C.J. deserves credit, too. Remember, he was also playing more with Dame in Oct, Nov and Dec than he was last season.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Don't be daft. You play a team 4 times and you lose 4 times. Unarguably the worst possible outcome, factually more doomy and gloomy.

Big picture my friend. Based on current trends, we may never play OKC again this season. So, losing to them 4 out of 4 times becomes irrelevant if we finish with an overall better record.

If you wished to feel doomy and gloomy about going 0-4 against OKC, that's your choice. It's also my choice to feel happy and sappy about being 3 games up on them with a much easier remaining schedule.

BNM

 

[Propagandist]

Awe, it's nice to have you back adding a voice of reason. Very well put.

Nope. More of the exhausting trend of intentionally misconstruing something to set up opportunity to vomit forth some macro argument. Boring af.

 

[THE HCP]

Personally I think their schedule got tough and RW can't keep his attitude in check, kind of the same ol' OKC, lots of talent but you're never quite sure what's going on in their heads.

It's as if you are perfectly describing TPFKATHCP.

 

[hoopsjock]

As a comparison, here's how it looked last year.

View attachment 25271

We were deeper last year seemingly, but are more top heavy this year going against what all the pundits are saying about why we are better this year. Nurk's improvement has been massive. As has CJ's apparently.

I don't know how much more evidence is needed to show that Turner needs to not play AT ALL.

 

[illmatic99]

I don't know how much more evidence is needed to show that Turner needs to not play AT ALL.

His $19 mil salary next year is gonna be painful

 

[hoopsjock]

His $19 mil salary next year is gonna be painful

I still have hope he can be moved as an expiring.

 

[THE HCP]

I told him back in December this was going to happen. He didn't listen to me then, why would he listen to me now?

I also told him the Blazers would have a better record than his Lakers. Again he failed to see the light and kept predicting #40wins for the Blazers. The Blazers are sitting on 44 wins (with 11 games to go) and 13 games head of his Lakers.

I tried, but there is just no educating some people.

BNM

OK, you can go away again FAMS.

 

[illmatic99]

I still have hope he can be moved as an expiring.

Agreed. At least one positive trend regarding Turner is that Terry finally has come to his senses. He is playing ten fewer minutes per game after the AS break. And CJ's absence the past two games hasn't resulted in an increase in ET minutes.

 

[Propagandist]

Big picture my friend. Based on current trends, we may never play OKC again this season. So, losing to them 4 out of 4 times becomes irrelevant if we finish with an overall better record.

If you wished to feel doomy and gloomy about going 0-4 against OKC, that's your choice. It's also my choice to feel happy and sappy about being 3 games up on them with a much easier remaining schedule.

BNM

Who said anything about feelings? Simply stating a fucking fact. I wasn't discussing big picture. I'm saying our season series against OKC could not have gone worse. Objectively. Not that that fact taints our current position or standing or anything like that. In fact, I was replying to some smugfuckery told-you-so garbage that ignores the journey for the destination. It's about both for many of us.

 

[illmatic99]

OK, you can go away again FAMS.

Seriously. Welcome back @Boob-No-More

You have been missed.

 

[wizenheimer]

What I'd be interested to see is how well the bench mob might perform with Nurkic rather than Kanter. Like, we know that Dame plays the entirety of the first quarter (and 3rd). Why not sub Nurk out relatively early in the first, and bring Nurk back at the start of the 2nd when Dame sits. Perhaps Nurk's defense and facilitating alongside Turner/Curry/Layman could make for a more effective 2nd unit.

I wouldn't be in favor of that

Dame and Nurkic have an excellent synergy going when they are on the floor together. It's easily the biggest driver of Portland's success. Diluting that for some hoped-for bump in 2nd unit efficiency seems like high-risk-low-reward speculation. Nurkic only averages 27 minutes a game. Taking him out ear;ier on the 1st Q and playing him at the top of the 2nd Q would almost guarantee the Dame/Nurkic combo would spend 10-15 fewer minutes on the floor together, especially if the rotation pattern was repeated in the 2nd half. More than any other pairing I think Dame makes Nurkic better and Nurkic makes Dame better. I want Portland's two best players performing at their best, and they sure appear to be at their best when they share the floor

 

[Propagandist]

Seriously. Welcome back @Boob-No-More

You have been missed.

He's the dude in class who raises his hand and asks some long ass question right after the professor says: "If there isn't anything else, y'all can leave early." Hard not to love those guys.

 

[CupWizier]

Don't be daft. You play a team 4 times and you lose 4 times. Unarguably the worst possible outcome, factually more doomy and gloomy.

and last year we swept them. Never faced them in the playoffs then either. How can it be more doomy and gloomy factually if it never factors in to the playoffs and we finish ahead of them?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I wouldn't be in favor of that

Dame and Nurkic have an excellent synergy going when they are on the floor together. It's easily the biggest driver of Portland's success. Diluting that for some hoped-for bump in 2nd unit efficiency seems like high-risk-low-reward speculation. Nurkic only averages 27 minutes a game. Taking him out ear;ier on the 1st Q and playing him at the top of the 2nd Q would almost guarantee the Dame/Nurkic combo would spend 10-15 fewer minutes on the floor together, especially if the rotation pattern was repeated in the 2nd half. More than any other pairing I think Dame makes Nurkic better and Nurkic makes Dame better. I want Portland's two best players performing at their best, and they sure appear to be at their best when they share the floor

That's probably true, but we can't know if they're never separated. What we do know is that the current alignment results in terrible 2nd quarter performance. I'm not saying to switch it up permanently, but I'd like to at least see what would happen. If we were performing at a championship caliber pace, then I wouldn't have any interest in experimenting. As it is, I don't think it could hurt much to see what a minor tweak in the rotation might result in.

 

[CupWizier]

He's the dude in class who raises his hand and asks some long ass question right after the professor says: "If there isn't anything else, y'all can leave early." Hard not to love those guys.

It's obvious you don't like him, but it isn't necessary to make it personal in the forum.

 

[illmatic99]

I wouldn't be in favor of that

Dame and Nurkic have an excellent synergy going when they are on the floor together. It's easily the biggest driver of Portland's success. Diluting that for some hoped-for bump in 2nd unit efficiency seems like high-risk-low-reward speculation. Nurkic only averages 27 minutes a game. Taking him out ear;ier on the 1st Q and playing him at the top of the 2nd Q would almost guarantee the Dame/Nurkic combo would spend 10-15 fewer minutes on the floor together, especially if the rotation pattern was repeated in the 2nd half. More than any other pairing I think Dame makes Nurkic better and Nurkic makes Dame better. I want Portland's two best players performing at their best, and they sure appear to be at their best when they share the floor

There's something to be said about this as well. But the scenario I'm hoping to see is something synergistic for the team rather than the duos.

Right now, here are some net ratings for 2 man lineups:
Dame + Nurk : + 10.9 in 1820 minutes
Nurk + Curry : + 21.8 in 217 minutes (actually best on the team)
Dame + Kanter : -8.6 in 109 minutes
ET + Kanter : -16.7 in 79 minutes

More Dame + Kanter minutes and more Curry + Nurk minutes would actually be a net positive for this team if you look at this stat in a vacuum.

 

[Propagandist]

and last year we swept them. Never faced them in the playoffs then either. How can it be more doomy and gloomy factually if it never factors in to the playoffs and we finish ahead of them?

And last season was the best possible outcome. Just forget it. I can't handle the disingenuous stuff right now.