1. Will LMA (or Anyone) Go With a Short-Term Deal?
The basic rule of NBA free agency has always been this: Home teams get an edge in keeping their own stars, since they can dangle more years and more money. This is why everyone is repeating that Portland can offer LaMarcus Aldridge almost $30 million more than any suitor. That’s technically true! The Blazers can offer Aldridge a five-year max deal totaling about $108 million, while rival offers top out at four years and $80 million.
That advantage means much less with the coming cap boom, which opens up options that used to be too risky for players or teams. Aldridge could sign a two-year max deal with Portland, then hit free agency again, sign another two-year max deal, and make more money in just the next four years — about $111 million — than Portland can offer in that traditional five-year max contract. Over the full five years, Aldridge could earn about $35 million more double-dipping in free agency than by signing the longest possible contract with the Blazers this summer.
THIRTY-FIVE MILLION. Only a fool would ignore that.
Aldridge is a max player, and maximum contracts are set at a specific percentage of the cap in the year those contracts start. Thirty percent of $67 million is nice, but 30 percent of $90 million — next year’s cap — is nicer.
Wait, there’s more! That max percentage increases from 30 percent to 35 percent once a player logs 10 years in the league. Next year will be Aldridge’s 10th season, and that gap of five percentage points will represent something like $4 million or $5 million per year
1 — or as much as $20 million over the life of a contract. Aldridge has a double incentive to hit free agency again as soon as possible. Those little quirks rewarding veteran players were never supposed to mean this much.
We’re a year early, but it’s possible no player in league history will have ever had as much incentive to sign a one-year deal as Kevin Durant next summer. Durant is three years younger than Aldridge, and as he hits free agency, he’ll have completed nine seasons — one short of the magic number required to snag that juicy 35 percent max. Durant could sign a one-year deal anywhere, re-enter free agency when the cap leaps to $108 million in the summer of 2017, and ink a mega-max at that 35 percent level. Durant would rake in about
$40 million more going that route than by signing a long-term contract deal next summer.