The Upcoming Free Agency Dillemma (Explained)

[PtldPlatypus]

Not saying you are wrong at all because I agree wholeheartedly. But one or all of their values could change in the next month.

Is that really necessary? We all know that things can change between now and any point in time. Do you really need to point it out any time someone projects into the future? It does nothing but stifle conversation.

 

[kjironman1]

Is that really necessary? We all know that things can change between now and any point in time. Do you really need to point it out any time someone projects into the future? It does nothing but stifle conversation.

Okay whatever.

 

[PCmor7]

I have no substantial reason to believe this, but I wonder if Kanter would be likely to stay in Portland for a discount. It just seems, with all he's been through off the court and even people beginning to criticize his play, he might be willing to trade dollars for peace. He seems to have flourished in Portland in the small sample size we've seen, both personally and professionally. He seems happy. He seems to fit. Having traveled abroad a few times in my life and many of my relatives actually living abroad, the mindset's a little different overseas. Plus, Kanter knows if he stays he's probably got at least a half year as the starting center on a contending team. There's actually upside for him with the Blazers that goes beyond the money.

 

[Scalma]

I have no substantial reason to believe this, but I wonder if Kanter would be likely to stay in Portland for a discount. It just seems, with all he's been through off the court and even people beginning to criticize his play, he might be willing to trade dollars for peace. He seems to have flourished in Portland in the small sample size we've seen, both personally and professionally. He seems happy. He seems to fit. Having traveled abroad a few times in my life and many of my relatives actually living abroad, the mindset's a little different overseas. Plus, Kanter knows if he stays he's probably got at least a half year as the starting center on a contending team. There's actually upside for him with the Blazers that goes beyond the money.

Portland is like the farthest he’ll get from Turkey playing in the NBA, so why not?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Portland is like the farthest he’ll get from Turkey playing in the NBA, so why not?

Because that would interfere with the plan to free Skal?

 

[kjironman1]

I doubt it, because even if they go crazy in a playoff series, there will be a much larger sample for teams to fall back on. They are who they are at this point.

This was a good response but @PtldPlatypus doesn't like my take on the conversation so i will let it go at that. Even though i have a perfectly viable response to give back. And it actually does contribute to the conversation and thread in general.

 

[Scalma]

Because that would interfere with the plan to free Skal?

God dammit I got no comeback.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

This was a good response but @PtldPlatypus doesn't like my take on the conversation so i will let it go at that. Even though i have a perfectly viable response to give back. And it actually does contribute to the conversation and thread in general.

Then...contribute. Would be pretty ironic if it were actually my post that stifled conversation...

 

[BonesJones]

Don’t think any of them get more than the tax MLE

Hood signed for $3.5M last summer. Don’t see how his value is going to double, or triple, a year later. His numbers in Portland aren’t much different than they were last year. In some ways, they’re down.

Curry signed for the minimum. Yes he was coming off an injury but we’re talking about a 29 year old journeyman. He’s played well lately but there’s nothing in his overall numbers that suggest anything more than maybe the tax MLE, if he’s lucky. He’s not going to be an option for a young team, so the most likely teams to pursue him are going to be teams in the tax. I don’t expect him back though, unless we trade CJ.

Kanter is the most likely to fetch the full MLE, but I still can’t see it happening. His defensive deficiencies hold his value back, and the center market isn’t littered with buyers.

If I had to guess, I think Portland will throw the tax MLE at one, probably Kanter given Nurks injury, and Meyers headed into the final year of his contract. But it’s also possible they throw the MLE at someone else that isn’t on the roster. Rondo, Dedmon, and the Morris twins come to mind, just off the top. It’s also possible they split the MLE up like they did last offseason.

Hm, weird, I think Kanter is most likely to accept the tax-payer MLE. Just look at Lopez and other Cs at his level. I just look at the way Curry and Hood have been playing lately and I feel like there's going to be a team for both of them that considers them as a really good 6th man that'd be willing to pay the Full MLE, or something more than tax-payer. Niether of them have had a sizeable contract yet and I think they're both going to try to cash in. Hood had a bad ending in Cleveland and was RFA, and wanted the Full MLE (Cleveland offered $7M a year and he turned it down). I also feel like the market has more buyers in it this year. With the hard cap increasing by $8M-$10M, more teams will have Full MLEs as well.

Don't get me wrong, I hope your right. If one of those 3 were willing to sign for the cap room exception ($4.5M?) it might be worth it to try to shed all three big contracts to create cap space to bring back the ones who want more.

 

[BonesJones]

This is a really good breakdown. Well done, @BonesJones

But I disagree with the premise that all three of those guys will get more than than TP- MLE. With like 25% of the league entering free agency this year, the guys in the Kanter/Hood/Curry tier are inevitably gonna get squeezed after the mid-tier borderline stars get overpaid like they always do in FA. I don't think our situation will be as dire with these guys as you intimate.

Thanks Yayuza. I hope you're right!

 

[BonesJones]

Like I said in the response there are just so many variables involved. All of the same issues apply to every player. I also covered issues that would effect all three of those players.

I think we're just looking at things from different prospectives. I don't see any of those 3s FA value changing, and I think their value is Full MLE level. But as I said, maybe something unexpected happens and their value is less than what I thought, they get injured, etc. I addressed both hypotheticals.

To sign any of these guys to the Full MLE, we'll have to trade a contract like Meyers', Turner's, or Moe's because we'd be pushing the hard cap before resigning Aminu, Layman, or filling our roster. Our payroll won't change before then.
If we're able to sign any of these guys to a tax-payer MLE, we won't have to worry about dumping one of those contracts.

I agree in terms of there being many different things that might affect what management decides to do, or might change player value, or might change our plans, etc.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I have no substantial reason to believe this, but I wonder if Kanter would be likely to stay in Portland for a discount. It just seems, with all he's been through off the court and even people beginning to criticize his play, he might be willing to trade dollars for peace. He seems to have flourished in Portland in the small sample size we've seen, both personally and professionally. He seems happy. He seems to fit. Having traveled abroad a few times in my life and many of my relatives actually living abroad, the mindset's a little different overseas. Plus, Kanter knows if he stays he's probably got at least a half year as the starting center on a contending team. There's actually upside for him with the Blazers that goes beyond the money.

I've thought this a bit too, also nothing really to basis my opinion off of but it seems like at least for non-basketball reasons I could see him wanting to stay here.

 

[hoopsjock]

Hm, weird, I think Kanter is most likely to accept the tax-payer MLE. Just look at Lopez and other Cs at his level. I just look at the way Curry and Hood have been playing lately and I feel like there's going to be a team for both of them that considers them as a really good 6th man that'd be willing to pay the Full MLE, or something more than tax-payer. Niether of them have had a sizeable contract yet and I think they're both going to try to cash in. Hood had a bad ending in Cleveland and was RFA, and wanted the Full MLE (Cleveland offered $7M a year and he turned it down). I also feel like the market has more buyers in it this year. With the hard cap increasing by $8M-$10M, more teams will have Full MLEs as well.

Don't get me wrong, I hope your right. If one of those 3 were willing to sign for the cap room exception ($4.5M?) it might be worth it to try to shed all three big contracts to create cap space to bring back the ones who want more.

But if Kanter is willing to sign for the Tax-MLE the room exception isn't really that significant in a difference between what we can offer both Hood and Curry so I don't really think having the room exception would be the difference between them staying or going.

Best case scenario: Kanter signs for the Tax-MLE and Hood signs for the $4.15 million (or whatever it is). Unlikely, but maybe those guys like that they found a home.