Trade Deadline Predictions

[Scalma]

Jarrett Jack is their starting PG and he plays 26.4 MPG for them. You don't think Napier would be an upgrade over Jack?

The Knicks are pushing hard to make the playoffs this year under their new GM - which is why Jack is starting and playing more minutes than Ntilikina. Napier's advanced stats blow Jack's out of the water.

They are currently 10th in the East 1.5 games out of the 8th seed. Things are so bunched up in the East, they are only 4 games out of HCA. If they thought Napier could help them make the playoffs, they'd definitely go for it. It's not like they are playing Ntilikina big minutes anyway.

BNM

Jack is just a veteran stopgap to ease Frank in. That's not what Napier would be.

 

[blue9]

Barely, which is why I called Matthews a lateral move.

Unless a player with a 10.8 PER is a Bruce Bowen DPOY 3 & D player, they aren't much of a difference maker. Wes was a very good 3 & D player pre-injury, but was never a DPOY level defender, like Bowen. Unfortunately, that Wes no longer exists. I wish him well, but am not Jonesing for a Wes Matthews Portland homecoming.

BNM

I wasn't saying that as an endorsement of Wes. I just don't ever want to miss out on an opportunity to point out how awful Turner is! He sucks more than a blown Achilles!

 

[Boob-No-More]

Jack is just a veteran stopgap to ease Frank in. That's not what Napier would be.

Or, he could be a short term rental to get them to the playoffs. They could just decline to match any offers he gets next summer.

Many would say it's pointless for the Knicks to even try to make the playoffs as they would be first round fodder for any of the top seeds in the East. They may, indeed be first round fodder, but I don't think making the playoffs would be pointless for them.

In fact, given their current situation, I think drawing the Cavs in the first round would be huge for them. A first round match up with LeBron would be a ratings bonanza for the Knicks. The local New York market is extremely lucrative (as big as LA and Chicago combined). Making the playoffs and drawing LeBron in the first round would be a win:win for them - financially.

BNM

 

[Scalma]

Or, he could be a short term rental to get them to the playoffs. They could just decline to match any offers he gets next summer.

Many would say it's pointless for the Knicks to even try to make the playoffs as they would be first round fodder for any of the top seeds in the East. They may, indeed be first round fodder, but I don't think making the playoffs would be pointless for them.

In fact, given their current situation, I think drawing the Cavs in the first round would be huge for them. A first round match up with LeBron would be a ratings bonanza for the Knicks. The local New York market is extremely lucrative (as big as LA and Chicago combined). Making the playoffs and drawing LeBron in the first round would be a win:win for them - financially.

BNM

How does adding Napier while losing Lee get them closer to the playoffs?

 

[Scalma]

Vonleh, Napier, Davis are the obvious candidates to be traded because of their value or their contract situation.

My guess is we try and get a late first for one or more of those three and then use that first to get rid of one of our bad contracts like Turner or Meyers.

If we land a first for any of the three, I would hold onto Meyers and Turner and still throw a party.

 

[stampedehero]

Napier
Harkless
One of Leonard and Davis
Vonleh

Targets:

Nikola Mirotic
Jabari Parker
Wes Matthews
Malik Beasley
Juan Hernangomez
Stanley Johnson
Magic wings (Ross, Simmons, Fournier, Hezonja)

Napier is valuable as a trade asset since Dame is mending himself. I actually would like to see Wes Mathews back on the bench. Fournier is a choice as we crave a SF. I think Simmons stays in Philly and Mirotic in Chicago/DC? Jabari Parker may be too expensive.

 

[Boob-No-More]

How does adding Napier while losing Lee get them closer to the playoffs?

They have a surplus of wing players that could easily replace Lee's production. For example, they could move Haradway Jr. to his natural SG position and start Beasley at SF. Or, maybe they could even get some decent play out of Motivated Mo. He's from NY and seems to want to play there. With Harkless, his production seems to be tied directly to his mental state. If Mo returns to last year's form, they could start him at SF, move Haradway Jr. to SG and still have Beasely's offense off the bench - all while upgrading their starting PG position..

At PG, Napier would be a significant upgrade over 34-year old Jarrett Jack - at both ends of the floor.

BNM

 

[stampedehero]

If we land a first for any of the three, I would hold onto Meyers and Turner and still throw a party.

My thoughts if we got a late first he would be bench material just like Swanigan. Unfortunately, we are stuck with Turner-the Turnover machine.

 

[BonesJones]

The cool thing about Wes is he's not locked in beyond next season. Would be one way to dump salary while also upgrading the roster. Something like Leonard/Harkless and Davis for Wes would work. Or both Leonard and Harkless.

BOS Gets: Davis
DAL Gets: Turner, BOS 1st, MIN/LAL 2nd
POR Gets: Matthews

 

[BrunoSOC]

We need to keep Shabazz.

 

[Boob-No-More]

We need to keep Shabazz.

I'd really like to keep him, but I'm not sure it's practical, or even possible. It would really suck to lose him just because other guys are grotesquely overpaid and under producing. The guy plays hard, he plays smart and he's been the consummate teammate. I'm a Shabazz fan.

BNM

 

[SIeepwalker]

If we land a first for any of the three, I would hold onto Meyers and Turner and still throw a party.

You'd be happy with a late first for Bazz ? Because I certainly would not

 

[SIeepwalker]

If Neil had balls he would trade CJ

 

[BonesJones]

Napier, Harkless, Layman 2019 MIN/LAL 2nd to NYK for Lee, O'Quinn, Thomas (TPE), 2018 NYK 1st (Lotto Protected)
Davis to BOS for 2018 BOS 1st
Turner, Leonard, Vonleh, 2019 POR 1st to ORL for Fournier, Herzonja, Speights, Afflalo

We save apx. $5M to get under cap.

Lillard / McCollum / Baldwin
McCollum / Lee
Fournier / Herzonja
Aminu / Collins
Nurkic / O'Quinn

That team is better than we have now and our picks this year would be:
NYK ~15th
POR ~19th
BOS ~ 28th

 

[Boob-No-More]

If Neil had balls he would trade CJ

For who? Serious question.

Boogie - headcase in his 8th year in the league and still hasn't played for a winning team.

Blake - asshole that's always injured.

Paul George - half season rental who we would all hate when he leaves us for the Lakers.

Anthony Davis - sure, but he's also always injured and we can't outbid BOS.

Who is a practical target that would actually make us better?

BNM

 

[BonesJones]

At this point, I'll be slightly upset if we keep Shabazz (he's too good and we can't pay him or start him), and slightly upset if we get a pick below 20 for him. I'm hoping for a pick between #15 and #20 for him. He's a starting caliber PG. Give him starters minutes every night and he's getting you 16-18PPG, 6AST, good efficiency, and very solid pressure defense. He's a smaller, more explosive verison of Jrue Holiday IMO.

 

[BonesJones]

For who? Serious question.

Boogie - headcase in his 8th year in the league and still hasn't played for a winning team.

Blake - asshole that's always injured.

Paul George - half season rental who we would all hate when he leaves us for the Lakers.

Anthony Davis - sure, but he's also always injured and we can't outbid BOS.

Who is a practical target that would actually make us better?

BNM

There's no practical target that'd make us better. The only practical targets for trading CJ would be high draft picks.

 

[BonesJones]

Jack is just a veteran stopgap to ease Frank in. That's not what Napier would be.

Who's to say Napier and Ntilikina couldn't start together? Ntilikina is 6'5 with around a 7'0 wingspan. He could play the 2 and some 3.

Offensively, Napier can play just as good off the ball as on it. Ntilikina can guard 2s. They could easily coexist in the same backcourt.

Napier would give them that starting PG to help them make the playoffs and a PG that could start their for a while. Then they could ease Ntilikina into that other guard spot (Frank would still be a PG on offense, technically). If Ntilikina is ready sooner rather than later, that makes Hardaway expendable, which would clear $18M in cap space for them.

 

[lawai'a]

For who? Serious question.

Boogie - headcase in his 8th year in the league and still hasn't played for a winning team.

Blake - asshole that's always injured.

Paul George - half season rental who we would all hate when he leaves us for the Lakers.

Anthony Davis - sure, but he's also always injured and we can't outbid BOS.

Who is a practical target that would actually make us better?

BNM

the money would work straight across for harrison fuckin' barnes. not sure if it makes us better or not in a vaccum. doubtful. the TPE for lee after would. i don't think it puts us in the same conversation as GS though, so the tax matters unless we are.

 

[BonesJones]

If we land a first for any of the three, I would hold onto Meyers and Turner and still throw a party.

That's it?

For those three, we better get a mid and late 1st, three late 1sts, two late firsts and the trading of Meyers/Turner, or something along those lines.

Vonleh is still 22 and a plus on the defensive end with some untapped offensive potential. Napier is a starting PG (one that could be a 17/6 guy with + defense). Davis is again one of the most underrated bigs in the league and should fetch a late 1st from a contender by himself.

 

[BonesJones]

the money would work straight across for harrison fuckin' barnes. not sure if it makes us better or not in a vaccum. doubtful. the TPE for lee after would. i don't think it puts us in the same conversation as GS though, so the tax matters unless we are.

That makes us much worse. Harrison Barnes is extremely overrated and is best as a 4th scorer.

 

[BonesJones]

Even the good SFs aren't that good...
Wiggins, Barnes, Melo...

 

[lawai'a]

That makes us much worse. Harrison Barnes is extremely overrated and is best as a 4th scorer.

how much worse with the addition of lee and barnes? together they produce more than cj and whatever small forward we currently are starting.

 

[Scalma]

You'd be happy with a late first for Bazz ? Because I certainly would not

Yeah I would.

 

[Scalma]

That's it?

For those three, we better get a mid and late 1st, three late 1sts, two late firsts and the trading of Meyers/Turner, or something along those lines.

Vonleh is still 22 and a plus on the defensive end with some untapped offensive potential. Napier is a starting PG (one that could be a 17/6 guy with + defense). Davis is again one of the most underrated bigs in the league and should fetch a late 1st from a contender by himself.

Why would a team give up a first for Vonleh AND pay him when they could just draft someone equally as talented for a lot cheaper?

And no way in hell would anyone give up a first for Ed Davis.

Napier is the only realistic possibility imo. Maybe. Same thing I said about Vonleh could apply here as well. But at least Napier is a bit more proven.

 

[BonesJones]

how much worse with the addition of lee and barnes? together they produce more than cj and whatever small forward we currently are starting.

Lillard would get absolutely blitzed and killed offensively because he doesn't have that elite scoring option next to him. That move gets us no closer to accomplishing anything, and doesn't make us better.

 

[Boob-No-More]

the money would work straight across for harrison fuckin' barnes. not sure if it makes us better or not in a vaccum. doubtful. the TPE for lee after would. i don't think it puts us in the same conversation as GS though, so the tax matters unless we are.

We can use the TPE for Lee independent of trading C.J. At 6'5" Lee can play next to either Dame and C.J.. or play with them in small ball/three guard situations.

So, the real question trio makes us better:

Harrison F. Barnes + Courtney Lee + Damian Lillard

or

Courtney Lee + C.J. McCollum + Damian Lillard

I lean toward the latter, but unless we land an above average starting SF, I want to start Aminu at the 3, and either Collins or Vonleh at the 4.

Barnes is better than Aminu, but he's not THAT much better. Lee would give us a legitimate 6MOY candidate coming off the bench. He would basically get close to starter's minutes (around 28.5 MPG, like Crabbe did his last two seasons in POR).

BNM

 

[lawai'a]

Lillard would get absolutely blitzed and killed offensively because he doesn't have that elite scoring option next to him. That move gets us no closer to accomplishing anything, and doesn't make us better.

teams couldn't leave barnes or lee open from three without paying the price. lee is above average at the very least and barnes was excellent as a warrior before becoming the focal point of the hapless mavs. he often shared the floor as small ball 4 with livingston and iguidala two 3pt challenged teamates. he would be a 2/3 option who still is a willing ball mover.

 

[BonesJones]

Why would a team give up a first for Vonleh AND pay him when they could just draft someone equally as talented for a lot cheaper?

And no way in hell would anyone give up a first for Ed Davis.

Napier is the only realistic possibility imo. Maybe. Same thing I said about Vonleh could apply here as well. But at least Napier is a bit more proven.

I'm not saying they would give up a first for Vonleh straight up. Here's how I evaluate Napier, Vonleh, and Davis according to following picks.

15th: 2.0
Napier: 1.9
20th: 1.6
Davis: 1.4
25th: 1.3
30th: 1.2
Vonleh: 1.0

Vonleh+Davis+Napier=4.30
Three ~25th picks = 3.9
Two ~15th picks = 4.0

So Vonleh isn't as valuable as the 30th pick, but including him in a trade should could help us get more in return.

No way in hell would anyone give up a first for Ed Davis....?

Per 36: 11PPG, 13RPG (5ORPG), good defense, could finisher around the rim.

That type of big is crucial to have off the bench for a contender. Much more crucial than drafting the next Caleb Swanigan, Tony Bradley, or Anzejs Pasecniks.

 

[lawai'a]

We can use the TPE for Lee independent of trading C.J. At 6'5" Lee can play next to either Dame and C.J.. or play with them in small ball/three guard situations.

So, the real question trio makes us better:

Harrison F. Barnes + Courtney Lee + Damian Lillard

or

Courtney Lee + C.J. McCollum + Damian Lillard

I lean toward the latter, but unless we land an above average starting SF, I want to start Aminu at the 3, and either Collins or Vonleh at the 4.

Barnes is better than Aminu, but he's not THAT much better. Lee would give us a legitimate 6MOY candidate coming off the bench. He would basically get close to starter's minutes (around 28.5 MPG, like Crabbe did his last two seasons in POR).

BNM

unfortunately we don't see aminu at the 3 enough to know, when he was he proved to be a poor passer, dribbler/penatrator and his shooting seemed to take a hit with quicker defenders IMO