Trade Ideas 2024 Offseason

[SharpesTriumph]

a comparison: Portland had 2 players shot over 40% from three, Brogdon & Grant; and they were the only players who shot over 39%. OKC had 8 players who shot over 40% and 10 who shot over 39%

besides that, say the Blazers put together the best shooting lineup as starters: Brogdon-Ant-Thybulle-Grant-Ayton. That team would be lucky to to get 10th seed. That's a team getting their mail on a treadmill in purgatory

Brogdon and Grant have been the players most mentioned as trade chips, along with Timelord and Ant. Some of those players...the best shooters, should be moved and off the roster, so counting them as shooting credits to offset shooting debits seems unwise



well...who says other rebuilding teams didn't prioritize shooting? OKC sure did. Minny appeared to prioritize it. Indiana did

my point was that the NBA has evolved to the point that success seems more welded to good shooting than good defense or good rebounding. And with 1st round picks a team can essentially lock them in place for 7-9 seasons, so prioritizing shooting in a long terms sense seems wise

I do get what you're saying about looking for the best talent available. Amen Thompson is a historically bad three point shooter, but he's so good at most other aspects of the game he has significant value. But a team can't have more than one or two guys like him on the roster

A lot of those teams have many players with great 3pt% because they first have very efficient offense that generates very good shot attempts for those shooters. For example it starts with OKC having Shae, Dallas having Luka, etc. The Blazers didn't have any of that.

Swap Sharpe Grant Brogdon Ant Reath etc on as role players for any of those teams efficient offense and those players would have shot much better. The problem was they had to be primary offense initiaters with the shitty talent on the Blazers roster. They had to try and fill larger roles than ideally they should. That causes a drop in efficiency.

Now I certainly think you may be right that shooting is the most important skill for NBA players and that a rebuilding team should prioritize that skill above others. I wasn't disagreeing with that.

My point was just that the Blazers players 3pt stats and 3pt production from last year shouldn't have any bearing on what type of skill set players the Blazers target in this draft.

Additionally, there is a huge difference in 3pt skill for a player drafted and 3pt competency over their NBA career - so that can be very hard to project.

A useful NBA role player needs a skill besides shooting - they can't provide much benefit if they are deficient in all other areas of an NBA game.

 

[sheed30]

who are you talking about?

WCJ has played 6 seasons, not 8; and he has averaged 55 games (adjusted for Covid), not 45. That's still not good, granted, and would be a major concern with adding him

I think you are underrating him as a rebounder. He posted a high of an 18.5% rebound rate in 2021-22; that ranked 13th in the NBA. His career average is 17% which would have ranked him 20th this season. He did dip to 15.9% this season. But that was still a better rate than Sengun, Holmgren KAT, Myles Turner, Naz Reid, Zach Collins, Markkanen, and Porzingis. And he happens to play on one of the best rebounding teams in the league. Orlando ranked 2nd in defensive rebounding rate and 7th in offensive rebounding rate; meaning his teammates are grabbing rebounds that he might normally secure

as far as his three-point shooting, I really don't think that's too important. Ayton never shoots them and no Ayton fan here says that's a negative. WCJ has improved quite a bit from three in any event: in the last 2 seasons he has converted 144 three's out of 396 attempts. That's a 36.4% conversion rate on 3.5 shots a game. That's right around the NBA average and that high a rate from a big changes a defense

but three's aren't the only shot in the NBA. Over the last three seasons, WCJ's TS% has been .601-->.621-->.623 while his FT rate has hovered around 31.5%. Those are very efficient numbers. Ayton's TS mark this season was .587 and he had the best mark in Portland's rotation

and of course, what was being discussed was a Simons + Timelord for WCJ + Black + 2025 first; not a straight Simons for WCJ trade. I think that's pretty unrealistic because Ant just doesn't have that kind of value, IMO. But I'd really like for Portland to find a trade partner for Ant because the Blazers+Simons has become just like the Blazers+CJ. There's no good reason to spend the salary and give him the usage that Portland does.

edit: the platypus beat me to it

What are you talking about, Carter has played 7 seasons not 6? lol
3 point shooting isn't important in the NBA today? ok

 

[sheed30]

Agree with the approach.
Grant and Ant are overpaid IMO.

Thybulle is paid fairly for his contribution.

Ant is overpaid? lol funny

 

[Phatguysrule]

It would be impressive if we ended up with 5 FRP in the worst draft in a decade+

Kind of seems like something a team that would be in the luxury tax with a 21 win roster would do.

And then watch us still miss out on the next Giannis or Jokic...

 

[wizenheimer]

What are you talking about, Carter has played 7 seasons not 6? lol
3 point shooting isn't important in the NBA today? ok

he's played 6 seasons. His rookie season was 2018-19. Math is hard I guess

I never said that 3 point shooting wasn't important. I said it wasn't as important for a C/PF. Ayton never shoots them; Sabonis has only been shooting about 1 a game. Adebayo & Gobert never shoot them; same for Jarrett Allen and Nic Claxton. It can be helpful when a big makes them and WCJ has shot 36% on 3.5 a game over the last 2 seasons. That's what Duop Reath did this season. But generally, when bigs are hunting for three's, their offensive rebounding rate drops, so there is a trade-off

I agree that Carter's health is his biggest issue. He's only averaged about 54-55 games played a season. But Ayton has only averaged 59

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

Ant is overpaid? lol funny

I'm glad there are people out there that think he's paid fairly.... Gives me hope that the Blazers can dump him for value.

Ant has always been a net negative out on the court (when considering the entire season in context).

 

[wizenheimer]

I'm glad there are people out there that think he's paid fairly.... Gives me hope that the Blazers can dump him for value.

Ant has always been a net negative out on the court (when considering the entire season in context).

was curious so I thought I'd look at the on/off for the Blazers in terms of team/opponent offensive ratings:

Brogdon +8.4
Camara +8.2
Murray +4.6
Thybulle +3.0
Reath +1.5
Ayton +1.2
Grant -.06
Simons -1.4
Sharpe -1.9
Walker -2.5
Banton -6.3
Scoot -8.2

I'm not really surprised by anything on that list except for maybe Murray

obviously this is a pair of numbers that are heavily influenced by rotations, time spent against opposing 1st/2nd units. And of course, the more a player played over the last 20 games or so the worse his numbers were (Blazers were 2-15 over their last 17 games).

one thing is pretty clear, to me at least, is that Brogdon was Portland's best player. To lead the team in on/off, winshares/48, BPM, and VORP, as a guard is pretty persuasive

 

[Natebishop3]

one thing is pretty clear, to me at least, is that Brogdon was Portland's best player.

@Tince I was trying to tell you this at the start of the season!!!!!

 

[Cugel]

Watching these top playoff teams is a cruel reminder of just how far POR would have to go to be great team, let alone a contender. It is almost inconceivable.

 

[sheed30]

he's played 6 seasons. His rookie season was 2018-19. Math is hard I guess

I never said that 3 point shooting wasn't important. I said it wasn't as important for a C/PF. Ayton never shoots them; Sabonis has only been shooting about 1 a game. Adebayo & Gobert never shoot them; same for Jarrett Allen and Nic Claxton. It can be helpful when a big makes them and WCJ has shot 36% on 3.5 a game over the last 2 seasons. That's what Duop Reath did this season. But generally, when bigs are hunting for three's, their offensive rebounding rate drops, so there is a trade-off

I agree that Carter's health is his biggest issue. He's only averaged about 54-55 games played a season. But Ayton has only averaged 59

Talking about math and you can’t even get it correct that he just finished his 7th season in his career? He has played 3 seasons with the Bulls and 4 with the Magic, that equals 7. Math is hard ya, for you!

3pt shooting is important since we talking about Carter and Ayton on the same floor together, someone pointed out KAT/Gobert can co exist but I was pointing out KAT is a great 3point shooter and Carter isn’t. Big difference
Imo

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Talking about math and you can’t even get it correct that he just finished his 7th season in his career? He has played 3 seasons with the Bulls and 4 with the Magic, that equals 7. Math is hard ya, for you!

Look a little closer. His 3rd season with Chicago and his first season with Orlando were the same season. He's played 6 seasons total.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Talking about math and you can’t even get it correct that he just finished his 7th season in his career? He has played 3 seasons with the Bulls and 4 with the Magic, that equals 7. Math is hard ya, for you!

3pt shooting is important since we talking about Carter and Ayton on the same floor together, someone pointed out KAT/Gobert can co exist but I was pointing out KAT is a great 3point shooter and Carter isn’t. Big difference
Imo

He played 2.5 season in Chicago and 3.5 in Orlando so 6 total. He was traded midseason.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Not sure all four of those trades are realistic - but those are the type of deals I'd look for and I suspect there are a couple that could be done this summer then a couple during the season. Send all of Brogdon, Grant, Ant, Ayton to teams that can use them in a playoff rotation for picks/youth and eat overpaid contracts. Try to trade Thybulle/Timelord if they improve to get trade value. Try to flip any of the vets back that we get (Brooks, Adams, Barnes, Huerter, etc) I'd actually change one of those 2025 picks to 2027 lets say for example the Kings. After those trades the Blazers would have these picks;

2025 Own - Lakers - Denver
2026 Own - Brooklyn
2027 Own - Kings
2028 Own - MIL swap
2029 Own - BOS - MIL
2030 Own - MIL swap

 

[wizenheimer]

Talking about math and you can’t even get it correct that he just finished his 7th season in his career? He has played 3 seasons with the Bulls and 4 with the Magic, that equals 7. Math is hard ya, for you!

don't pay attention to the 4+3 bullshit for 2020-21 as they are counting it twice

his rookie season was 2018-19 after he was picked 7th in the draft....so:

2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24

how many seasons is that?

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Interesting to see what our rotation would be like after trading all those vets for picks;

Scoot- Giddey
Sharpe - Black
Brooks - Huerter - Thybulle
Barnes - Williams
Adams - Reath - Timelord

Looks to me like a similar 21 win team as we are now but with more youth, upside, and still might be able to flip a vet(s) for a pick.

But we go from our current 9 future FRP to 13.

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

View attachment 64695

Orlando values Isaac, so they would not want to include him. I like Isaac, but I don't think he's the right target to go after for Portland. Orlando has enough cap space they could do the trade without him.
I liked Black as a prospect in the draft last year, however again - I don't see a good fit for him in Portland. I'd rather get more 'compensation' via future draft picks than bring back either of these players.

This 3-way with Memphis is much better IMO.

View attachment 64696

I like this one, but I'd rather keep Grant for another 6-months to a year. He's the best scorer Portland has, and his services will be needed until someone else can step up. His trade value will likely remain unchanged for a while.

View attachment 64697

This is okay, but I doubt either team does this. Sengun is the Rockets starting C. Adams makes a perfect backup for them. Rockets have no need for Ayton.

View attachment 64698

I really don't think this is realistic. Too many moving pieces...
I can see a Garland / Ingram trade straight across work for both Cavs & Pels.

Mitchell/LeVert/Ingram/Mobley/Allen -> Their bench is such that they can minimize the time Mobley/Allen play together without requiring one of them to be traded.

Garland/McCollum/Jones/Murphy/Zion

 

[BigGameDamian]

Any interest here?

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Any interest here?

Was a type of deal I was interested in when we had Josh Hart and Dame but now it doesn't make any sense since we're going to be rebuilding a long time.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Interesting idea, basically Brogdon and Grant for Warriors overpaid contracts (CP3 Wiggins etc) but we get two of their picks. I'd do this:

https://fanspo.com/nba/s/general/tr...-golden-state-warriors-gm-2024-offseason-plan

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Interesting idea, basically Brogdon and Grant for Warriors overpaid contracts (CP3 Wiggins etc) but we get two of their picks. I'd do this:

https://fanspo.com/nba/s/general/tr...-golden-state-warriors-gm-2024-offseason-plan

Grant is worth two picks alone. One for Brogdon. We get two AND we have to take two terrible contracts? Doesn't sound right. I'd probably rather have Kuminga than a late pick too.

 

[blazerkor]

If we could trade pick 34 and a future second (probably protected) to the Jazz for pick 29, then I think it might make sense for the Bulls to take Brogdon and pick 29 for Lonzo Ball, pick 11 and the pick we owe them that may never convey anyway. That'd be the first deal I'd make. (the reason I would move 34 up is so the Bulls don't have to worry about any Stepien bullshit which would add value to the deal for them)

I'm not sure what direction the Hawks are going but if they're trying to build around either Trae or Dejounte I think guys like Matisse and Rob should be appealing to them. I think pick 7, pick 40, Rob and/or Tisse (who both fit into TPEs that the Hawks have) would be more than enough value to move up six spots to number one in this draft.

At pick 1 I'd take Sarr. At pick 11 I'd take the best SF available one of Salaun, Cody Williams, Holland or Buzelis should be there. At 14 we could probably take our favorite of Filipowski, Missi or Ware.

We would get a lot bigger and get more athletic. Let's just say we trade Ant to Orlando for Black and the more favorable of their pick and Denver's in next year's draft. Then we trade Jerami to a contender for two future FRPs that may have light protections on them but are guaranteed to convey.

Rotation: Scoot, Shae, Cody Williams, Sarr, Deandre, Black, Banton, Ware, Kris, Tou, Bari. That's a very deep rotation filled with very long and athletic players for their positions. We would be able to press really hard on D and push the pace on O. Really spread our minutes out so none of our guys are getting run into the ground. Even starting next season we could wear opponents out. Yeah, next season we'd probably still lose a lot but no one would want to play us and it would build a foundation for this team going forward.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Grant is worth two picks alone. One for Brogdon. We get two AND we have to take two terrible contracts? Doesn't sound right. I'd probably rather have Kuminga than a late pick too.

I'm not sure Brogdon is worth one of these picks, and Grant might be worth one but just barely. CP3 contract is expiring and Wiggins has a chance he could gain value to be flipped later. If not at least Wiggins deal expires before Grants. Yes I'd rather have Kuminga than a late picks but these picks could be much better than a late pick. Kuminga value will be greatly diminished once he signs his next contract.

Not saying this is the ideal scenario, sure if Cronin can surprise us and get more I'm all for it. But I'd greatly prefer a trade like this where we get two picks, instead of no trade. I'm skeptical we can get more value than this type of deal and holding our for more could eventually leave us with much less.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

If we could trade pick 34 and a future second (probably protected) to the Jazz for pick 29, then I think it might make sense for the Bulls to take Brogdon and pick 29 for Lonzo Ball, pick 11 and the pick we owe them that may never convey anyway. That'd be the first deal I'd make. (the reason I would move 34 up is so the Bulls don't have to worry about any Stepien bullshit which would add value to the deal for them)

I'm not sure what direction the Hawks are going but if they're trying to build around either Trae or Dejounte I think guys like Matisse and Rob should be appealing to them. I think pick 7, pick 40, Rob and/or Tisse (who both fit into TPEs that the Hawks have) would be more than enough value to move up six spots to number one in this draft.

At pick 1 I'd take Sarr. At pick 11 I'd take the best SF available one of Salaun, Cody Williams, Holland or Buzelis should be there. At 14 we could probably take our favorite of Filipowski, Missi or Ware.

We would get a lot bigger and get more athletic. Let's just say we trade Ant to Orlando for Black and the more favorable of their pick and Denver's in next year's draft. Then we trade Jerami to a contender for two future FRPs that may have light protections on them but are guaranteed to convey.

Rotation: Scoot, Shae, Cody Williams, Sarr, Deandre, Black, Banton, Ware, Kris, Tou, Bari. That's a very deep rotation filled with very long and athletic players for their positions. We would be able to press really hard on D and push the pace on O. Really spread our minutes out so none of our guys are getting run into the ground. Even starting next season we could wear opponents out. Yeah, next season we'd probably still lose a lot but no one would want to play us and it would build a foundation for this team going forward.

Take out the #1 pick and then Atlanta considers it, Thybulle and Timelord have negative value so Atlanta needs to be given compensation not give it up. Ideally we only have to give up pick #14 instead of #7.

Trading for #1 just doesn't make sense as Atlanta GM is going to need a real asset to do it, none of Thybulle, Timelord, or #7 have that value. But it doesn't make sense from the Blazers side either as Sarr might be the best prospect but your talking about someone who would go around pick #10 in most drafts. Sarr has Johnathan Issac upside with those similar offensive limitations if he realizes his potential. That's not what you want from any lottery pick let alone top3, or #1.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

If we could trade pick 34 and a future second (probably protected) to the Jazz for pick 29, then I think it might make sense for the Bulls to take Brogdon and pick 29 for Lonzo Ball, pick 11 and the pick we owe them that may never convey anyway. That'd be the first deal I'd make. (the reason I would move 34 up is so the Bulls don't have to worry about any Stepien bullshit which would add value to the deal for them)

I'm not sure what direction the Hawks are going but if they're trying to build around either Trae or Dejounte I think guys like Matisse and Rob should be appealing to them. I think pick 7, pick 40, Rob and/or Tisse (who both fit into TPEs that the Hawks have) would be more than enough value to move up six spots to number one in this draft.

At pick 1 I'd take Sarr. At pick 11 I'd take the best SF available one of Salaun, Cody Williams, Holland or Buzelis should be there. At 14 we could probably take our favorite of Filipowski, Missi or Ware.

We would get a lot bigger and get more athletic. Let's just say we trade Ant to Orlando for Black and the more favorable of their pick and Denver's in next year's draft. Then we trade Jerami to a contender for two future FRPs that may have light protections on them but are guaranteed to convey.

Rotation: Scoot, Shae, Cody Williams, Sarr, Deandre, Black, Banton, Ware, Kris, Tou, Bari. That's a very deep rotation filled with very long and athletic players for their positions. We would be able to press really hard on D and push the pace on O. Really spread our minutes out so none of our guys are getting run into the ground. Even starting next season we could wear opponents out. Yeah, next season we'd probably still lose a lot but no one would want to play us and it would build a foundation for this team going forward.

Totally in favor of an Ant trade if we can get two real pieces back like Black and a future #1st.

Although it we trade Brogdon/Grant I'm also fine keeping Ant. Just don't want to see this core back when we could deal some of them for picks/youth.

Simons to Orlando makes so much sense for both teams.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I can see an argument that we are better off waiting for teams to strike out in free agency then trade Brogdon/Grant for a larger return at that time.

But that "wait for a better deal" has been a constant theme of the Cronin era and it greatly risks having to stand pat with no deal. Do we want to risk heading to training camp with this same Brogdon/Ant/Scoot PG trio plus a possible rookie PG in there?

 

[illmatic99]

Jarace Walker is just buried in Indiana behind Pascal/Obi. They are surely going to bring Topping back, right?

Wonder if they even the appetite to develop Walker.

I can see them being interested in Klingan. If available at 7, I would take a swing and flip our pick for Walker. One less year on rookie scale, but likely a better prospect than any other available for us in the draft.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Jarace Walker is just buried in Indiana behind Pascal/Obi. They are surely going to bring Topping back, right?

Wonder if they even the appetite to develop Walker.

They probably need wait to make sure Pascal signs this summer.

 

[illmatic99]

They probably need wait to make sure Pascal signs this summer.

I see this as a foregone conclusion based on everything I've read.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Jarace Walker is just buried in Indiana behind Pascal/Obi. They are surely going to bring Topping back, right?

Wonder if they even the appetite to develop Walker.

Who would we send to them - Brogdon?

Grant doesn't make sense with Siakam. Simons isn't needed with Haliburton. Ayton is now too big of a salary with Siakam and not much of an upgrade over Turner. Brogdon could make sense.