Trade Jerryd Bayless

[Haakzilla]

I think circumstances matter and in this particular circumstance I don't think it's very likely that Jerryd will ever be able to play to his strengths given the players that surround him and what is asked of the 1 guard in this particular iteration of the Blazers (Nate and Roy as top dogs). Not only does Nate require a pass-first on offense, defense above all-else player who looks to score last, his teammates are frankly better options to score ahead of him.

If Jerryd were better at defense (aggressiveness without fouling and generating more steals/turnovers) or a knock down shooter I'd worry less about his pure point guard deficiencies, but as it stands he's not a very effective stopper and to date his jumper hasn't been very reliable.

And really the more I think about it, I don't believe Jerryd enjoys being a distributor/defender and when you aren't particularly comfortable with an assigned role I don't believe that's a recipe for longterm success at anything -- sports or life in general.

Regardless, hopefully if/when he's traded something decent comes back, because I think he does have talent.

well said +1

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think circumstances matter and in this particular circumstance I don't think it's very likely that Jerryd will ever be able to play to his strengths given the players that surround him and what is asked of the 1 guard in this particular iteration of the Blazers (Nate and Roy as top dogs). Not only does Nate require a pass-first on offense, defense above all-else player who looks to score last, his teammates are frankly better options to score ahead of him.

If Jerryd were better at defense (aggressiveness without fouling and generating more steals/turnovers) or a knock down shooter I'd worry less about his pure point guard deficiencies, but as it stands he's not a very effective stopper and to date his jumper hasn't been very reliable.

And really the more I think about it, I don't believe Jerryd enjoys being a distributor/defender and when you aren't particularly comfortable with an assigned role I don't believe that's a recipe for longterm success at anything -- sports or life in general.

Regardless, hopefully if/when he's traded something decent comes back, because I think he does have talent.

Really? It didn't really sound that way. You said he can't pass, defend, or shoot. What strengths do you feel will generate trade value?

Personally I think the verdict is still out on his shooting and defense. But this year is his last chance to shine as a Blazer. He has to put up or shut up. We will find out very soon.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Really? It didn't really sound that way. You said he can't pass, defend, or shoot. What strengths do you feel will generate trade value?

Personally I think the verdict is still out on his shooting and defense. But this year is his last chance to shine as a Blazer. He has to put up or shut up. We will find out very soon.

As a scorer/slasher on an uptempo team as a combo guard I think eventually Bayless will end up a pretty good player, not a star, but a rotation regular. When I say he can't play defense, I mean I don't think he can play defense up to Nate McMillan's standard. On a team that doesn't value defense as highly or the style of grind it out possession basketball I think he'd fit in pretty nicely as a microwave guy off the bench.

Like I said, I think he has some talent, I just don't think his strengths play all that well into what this team wants/needs.

 

[Pinwheel1]

As a scorer/slasher on an uptempo team as a combo guard I think eventually Bayless will end up a pretty good player, not a star, but a rotation regular. When I say he can't play defense, I mean I don't think he can play defense up to Nate McMillan's standard. On a team that doesn't value defense as highly or the style of grind it out possession basketball I think he'd fit in pretty nicely as a microwave guy off the bench.

Like I said, I think he has some talent, I just don't think his strengths play all that well into what this team wants/needs.

All valid points. But I am also wondering if maybe this isn't a perfect team for him. Aside from a Don Nelson coached team or the knicks, who plays a style of offense that he would be successful as a small SG? Yes i know you said combo, but that still means SG sometimes. If he is going to make it anywhere he needs to play along side a BRoy or DWade. (Maybe Evans in Sac) Those are his best bets if he wants more than 12 minutes.

So if I were him, I would work my ass off to stay and eventually get to play WITH Roy as opposed to when Roy is on the bench.

 

[Nikolokolus]

All valid points. But I am also wondering if maybe this isn't a perfect team for him. Aside from a Don Nelson coached team or the knicks, who plays a style of offense that he would be successful as a small SG? Yes i know you said combo, but that still means SG sometimes. If he is going to make it anywhere he needs to play along side a BRoy or DWade. (Maybe Evans in Sac) Those are his best bets if he wants more than 12 minutes.

Just like it's really difficult to feature two front court players that work from the low block (Z-bo and Eddy Curry for instance) it's also difficult to have a backcourt with two slashers with middling 3 point percentages -- the same issue Dre' and Roy have -- in that neither player is really all that effective off the ball and needs the rock to create offense for themselves. Miller at least is an excellent passer so he can focus on at least trying to create looks for Roy and others.

Bayless and Brandon together hasn't been used much, because J-Bay just isn't a reliable enough shooter and despite raising his percentages from dreadful to below average and until he demonstrates the ability to catch and shoot reliably I think it's fair to say that he's unlikely to ever be a viable starting "point" guard as long as Roy is here.

So, "perfect situation?" I'm having trouble seeing it.

So if I were him, I would work my ass off to stay and eventually get to play WITH Roy as opposed to when Roy is on the bench.

I seriously doubt it's because of lack of work or effort that Bayless isn't the team's starting point guard, or even obvious heir apparent; sometimes guys just don't have the skillset to fit in -- or the circumstance that maximizes what they do best.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Just like it's really difficult to feature two front court players that work from the low block (Z-bo and Eddy Curry for instance) it's also difficult to have a backcourt with two slashers with middling 3 point percentages -- the same issue Dre' and Roy have -- in that neither player is really all that effective off the ball and needs the rock to create offense for themselves. Miller at least is an excellent passer so he can focus on at least trying to create looks for Roy and others.

Bayless and Brandon together hasn't been used much, because J-Bay just isn't a reliable enough shooter and despite raising his percentages from dreadful to below average and until he demonstrates the ability to catch and shoot reliably I think it's fair to say that he's unlikely to ever be a viable starting "point" guard as long as Roy is here.So, "perfect situation?" I'm having trouble seeing it.


/QUOTE]

When I say perfect situation I am talking from Bayless' point of view. Not the team.
We will see if Bayless can hit the open outside shot. I think he could if he played more with Roy. But becasue Miller is better over all, that won't happen much. But I would like to see two guards who can attack the basket and pull up for the mid range J. I still hold out hope for it. I think it is with in Bayless' skill set.

 

[Natebishop3]

I guess one thing that I respect about J-Bay is that he is TRYING to pass. He really is. I just don't know if he has the court vision to ever be a great passer. I suspect he hates when people tell him he can't do something though, and that's why he's determined to pass the ball.

 

[Nikolokolus]

When I say perfect situation I am talking from Bayless' point of view. Not the team.
We will see if Bayless can hit the open outside shot. I think he could if he played more with Roy. But becasue Miller is better over all, that won't happen much. But I would like to see two guards who can attack the basket and pull up for the mid range J. I still hold out hope for it. I think it is with in Bayless' skill set.

Bayless wants to play and wants a second contract, if he stays here the first is in doubt and the second could be jeopardized in terms of size. You are right however that we will see one way or another. For the team's sake I hope Jerryd has a monster breakout year, because it would alleviate some nagging questions about the point guard position long term if he can fill that role adequately. I'm simply saying I have my doubts and it might be in Jerryd's and the team's best interest to find him a new situation -- preferably trading him for somebody that can provide value and impact for the Blazers.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I guess one thing that I respect about J-Bay is that he is TRYING to pass. He really is. I just don't know if he has the court vision to ever be a great passer. I suspect he hates when people tell him he can't do something though, and that's why he's determined to pass the ball.

I guess I alluded to this above when I said I'm not sure how much Jerryd enjoys being a passer and a distributor. My suspicion is that he doesn't get his competitive fire going from dropping a sweet dime as much as he does cutting to the hoop, finishing and drawing an and-1 foul. You're right though, he does deserve respect for trying to modify his game and working as hard as we've heard he does.

 

[Ed O]

Bayless is 22 years old. There's no rush for him to be pushed out the door. There is no reason this should be a "make or break" season.

He's a young player and he's a hard worker and he's improving... and he's cheap. Even if he's not the best fit right now, there's very little reason to trade him merely because he's not a good fit right now. The Blazers should show patience and let the man continue to prove himself.

Ed O.

 

[Natebishop3]

I just see a lot of parallels between Bayless and Jermaine O'Neal. They were both dominant in the SL. They both are/were buried on deep benches. Both very young and very driven. Both inconsistent when given playing time. I would say that Bayless has shown more in his time here than O'Neal did during his tenure. I just don't want to give up on him when he's so young and so talented. I could see Bayless going somewhere and having a Devin Harris type breakout season.

 

[Minstrel]

I just see a lot of parallels between Bayless and Jermaine O'Neal. They were both dominant in the SL. They both are/were buried on deep benches. Both very young and very driven. Both inconsistent when given playing time. I would say that Bayless has shown more in his time here than O'Neal did during his tenure. I just don't want to give up on him when he's so young and so talented. I could see Bayless going somewhere and having a Devin Harris type breakout season.

I agree. I prefer to hang onto talented young players and see what develops down the line in terms of fit. Perhaps Roy will prove to be a true enough point guard for Bayless not to have to worry about distributing. Perhaps Bayless will distribute enough to work with Roy. Perhaps Batum will prove to be a good distributor, again allowing Bayless to just be a scorer on offense. Perhaps there will be a 6-for-1 trade where Portland lands Chris Paul and Bayless will be a part of it and we'll be glad Bayless was around as a trade asset.

It's not possible to look ahead enough to be safe in jettisoning talent for the sake of fit. Talent for equal talent swapping in the name of better fit is fine. Portland right now has solid or better players for every position, so they can afford to take a wait-and-see approach to a talented prospect like Bayless who may not fit in perfectly right now.

 

[Natebishop3]

I agree. I prefer to hang onto talented young players and see what develops down the line in terms of fit. Perhaps Roy will prove to be a true enough point guard for Bayless not to have to worry about distributing. Perhaps Bayless will distribute enough to work with Roy. Perhaps Batum will prove to be a good distributor, again allowing Bayless to just be a scorer on offense. Perhaps there will be a 6-for-1 trade where Portland lands Chris Paul and Bayless will be a part of it.

It's not possible to look ahead enough to be safe in jettisoning talent for the sake of fit. Talent for equal talent swapping in the name of better fit is fine. Portland right now has solid or better players for every position, so they can afford to take a wait-and-see approach to a talented prospect like Bayless who may not fit in perfectly right now.

The trouble is keeping people happy. We saw it with O'Neal after the 1999-2000 playoffs, and we're seeing it now with Rudy. I'm sure Whitsitt would have loved to have kept O'Neal on his roster, he wouldn't have given him a contract extension if he felt otherwise. O'Neal demanded a trade and Whitsitt accommodated him. He wanted an opportunity to go somewhere and start, and that wasn't going to happen with Sheed and Sabonis securely implanted in the starting lineup. Bayless on the other hand has a real shot at starting. Miller could be gone by the end of the season, and we really don't have any other point guards on the roster other than Johnson. He just needs to be patient and keep getting better.

 

[jlprk]

I agree. I prefer to hang onto talented young players and see what develops down the line in terms of fit.

Trouble with that is, they block other talented players from getting time. To see what develops with Bayless, we have to NOT see (we have to delay) what develops with Elliot Williams or Armon Johnson or Rudy Fernandez.

Portland right now has solid or better players for every position, so they can afford to take a wait-and-see approach to a talented prospect like Bayless.

Same thing about players denied playing time. That premise can easily lead to the opposite conclusion:

Portland right now has solid or better players for every position, so they can NOT afford to take a wait-and-see approach to a talented prospect like Bayless.

 

[Natebishop3]

Trouble with that is, they block other talented players from getting time. To see what develops with Bayless, we have to NOT see (we have to delay) what develops with Elliot Williams or Armon Johnson or Rudy Fernandez.



Same thing about players denied playing time. That premise can easily lead to the opposite conclusion:

Bayless isn't taking minutes from Rudy.

Williams clearly isn't ready for real PT.

Johnson is a third stringer at best. I like the guy, but come on...

 

[jlprk]

O'Neal demanded a trade and Whitsitt accommodated him. He wanted an opportunity to go somewhere and start, and that wasn't going to happen with Sheed and Sabonis securely implanted in the starting lineup.

That is just so old-fashioned I want to vomit. Nowadays when a player wants to be traded, and will obviously be a problem, and you aren't going to give him time anyway, you take it as a challenge to your authority, and you threaten to keep him for 2 more years just to spite him. GMs are so much taller and better conditioned today than back when Whitsitt was Executive of the Year.

 

[Natebishop3]

That is just so old-fashioned I want to vomit. Nowadays when a player wants to be traded, and will obviously be a problem, and you aren't going to give him time anyway, you take it as a challenge to your authority, and you threaten to keep him for 2 more years just to spite him. GMs are so much taller and better conditioned today than back when Whitsitt was Executive of the Year.

Right, because THAT's why the Blazers haven't traded Rudy. It doesn't have anything to do with the fact that they haven't gotten any decent offers for him and his value is in the toilet. Nooooo that's not it at all.

Whitsitt got Dale Davis, who was fresh off an All-Star season, for O'Neal. At the time it was considered a major coup for the Blazers. Who has been offered for Rudy that you would consider a fair trade?

 

[jlprk]

Bayless isn't taking minutes from Rudy.

He sure did last year, playing the same position. We'll see about this year.

Williams clearly isn't ready for real PT. Johnson is a third stringer at best. I like the guy, but come on...

The way they become ready is to get playing time, which is the whole point. When you give time to one young potentially good player, you delay another one (if you have more than one, and we do).

 

[Natebishop3]

He sure did last year, playing the same position. We'll see about this year.



The way they become ready is to get playing time, which is the whole point. When you give time to one young potentially good player, you delay another one (if you have more than one, and we do).

If Bayless was the backup shooting guard, who was the backup point guard?

I think Bayless has earned his minutes. About the only thing Williams has proven at this level is that he can jump out of the gym. So could Qyntel Woods. Want to bring him back and give him another shot?

 

[jlprk]

Right, because THAT's why the Blazers haven't traded Rudy. It doesn't have anything to do with the fact that they haven't gotten any decent offers for him and his value is in the toilet. Nooooo that's not it at all.

Whitsitt got Dale Davis, who was fresh off an All-Star season, for O'Neal. At the time it was considered a major coup for the Blazers. Who has been offered for Rudy that you would consider a fair trade?

Supposedly two teams offered us mid-1st round picks before draft day. (Like about 15th.) If he takes off, we might get nothing. (He can just buy a plane ticket and leave if he gets frustrated enough. It won't take much to set him off. If he does, he'll just spend the rest of the season having his lawyers fight it out in the courts, preferably for him, European ones.)

 

[jlprk]

If Bayless was the backup shooting guard, who was the backup point guard?

I think Bayless has earned his minutes. About the only thing Williams has proven at this level is that he can jump out of the gym. So could Qyntel Woods. Want to bring him back and give him another shot?

1) Blake.
2) So you pulled the Qyntel card, eh. Oldest trick in the book. You still haven't disproved my (apparently challenging) thesis that it's not at all obvious we should hold on to all young players who may or may not turn out well, since doing so blocks development of others in the same boat.

 

[Natebishop3]

Supposedly two teams offered us mid-1st round picks before draft day. (Like about 15th.) If he takes off, we might get nothing. (He can just buy a plane ticket and leave if he gets frustrated enough. It won't take much to set him off. If he does, he'll just spend the rest of the season having his lawyers fight it out in the courts, preferably for him, European ones.)

Supposedly?.... interesting. And who would you have taken at 15? You remember, of course, that we actually DID trade for a mid-first pick and selected Babbitt at #16. Rudy potentially has much more value than a mid-first pick in a weak draft. What was the incentive to unload him for table-scraps?

Rudy can do whatever he likes, as long as it doesn't involve playing for another team until his contract runs out. He can jump on a plane, he can fly back to Spain. Of course, he will forfeit two years of salary, and I suspect he can't afford to make that sacrifice or he already would have. Rudy is 25 years old. He can't afford to throw away two years of playing while he's in his prime. That would be extremely foolish. He only had one option and that was to return to Portland, play his ass off, and wait for a trade. He could wait the two years and return to Europe, but I suspect Rudy still wants to prove he can play in the NBA, and that's why he's throwing such a huge fit. He left all that money on the table for a reason.

 

[Natebishop3]

1) Blake.
2) So you pulled the Qyntel card, eh. Oldest trick in the book. You still haven't disproved my (apparently challenging) thesis that it's not at all obvious we should hold on to all young players who may or may not turn out well, since doing so blocks development of others in the same boat.

Disprove what? At this point we know that Bayless has talent. We know he has potential. He has proven it at various points of his first two seasons in the league and the playoffs last year. What has Williams shown? He's an unknown. He didn't even play in the summer league. You're going to trade or bench Bayless in favor of a complete unknown? Really? You're vastly under-rating Bayless' potential, and tossing him in under the wide-sweeping statement of "all young players who may or may not turn out well".

Let me break it down for you:

All young players who may or may not turn out well = Williams, Johnson, Patty Mills, and Babbitt.

Rotation players who have earned their minutes = Bayless, Cunningham, Rudy, Matthews

Core rotation players who play the bulk of the minutes = Roy, Miller, Aldridge, Batum, Camby, Oden (when healthy), Przybilla

Do you honestly believe that Williams, Johnson, Mills, or Babbitt deserve minutes over Bayless at this point?

 

[jlprk]

Supposedly?.... interesting. And who would you have taken at 15? You remember, of course, that we actually DID trade for a mid-first pick and selected Babbitt at #16. Rudy potentially has much more value than a mid-first pick in a weak draft. What was the incentive to unload him for table-scraps?

Rudy can do whatever he likes, as long as it doesn't involve playing for another team until his contract runs out. He can jump on a plane, he can fly back to Spain. Of course, he will forfeit two years of salary, and I suspect he can't afford to make that sacrifice or he already would have. Rudy is 25 years old. He can't afford to throw away two years of playing while he's in his prime. That would be extremely foolish. He only had one option and that was to return to Portland, play his ass off, and wait for a trade. He could wait the two years and return to Europe, but I suspect Rudy still wants to prove he can play in the NBA, and that's why he's throwing such a huge fit. He left all that money on the table for a reason.

Your 1st paragraph: I guess i didn't make myself very clear. I anticipated your saying he's worth more than that, with your hidden assumption that he stays. So I discussed how easy it would be to leave. If that happens, a mid-1st will seem like a lot, compared to the nothing we will have gotten.

Your 2nd paragraph: I guess I didn't make myself very clear. I anticipated your saying that he will sacrifice pay if he leaves, so I said he'll probably fight our slave possission of him in court. (It's the recent agreement between FIBA and NBA to honor each other's contracts.) If he convinces a European court to take jurisdiction, they will rule in his favor and let him out of the 2 year nonsense.

If the NBA fights him in a court (of either country), the league will turn ordinary Europeans against future NBA visits, expansion, and sales of merchandise (jersies, trinkets, etc.). The league will shoot itself in the foot with lost revenues if he takes it on in a court--of any continent. He'll probably win if it's in Europe and lose in the US. But either way, the league will lose big revenues. So they will settle (=he will win for himself, but not for future players).

 

[Natebishop3]

Your 1st paragraph: I guess i didn't make myself very clear. I anticipated your saying he's worth more than that, with your hidden assumption that he stays. So I discussed how easy it would be to leave. If that happens, a mid-1st will seem like a lot, compared to the nothing we will have gotten.

Your 2nd paragraph: I guess I didn't make myself very clear. I anticipated your saying that he will sacrifice pay if he leaves, so I said he'll probably fight our slave possission of him in court. (It's the recent agreement between FIBA and NBA to honor each other's contracts.) If he convinces a European court to take jurisdiction, they will rule in his favor and let him out of the 2 year nonsense.

It's an American contract, so I don't see how he's going to be able to fight it in Europe. He might be able to sue FIBA, but I don't see how that's going to hold much water. He signed the contract with the Blazers. That contract is honored by the NBA and FIBA. They are private organizations. He has nobody to blame but himself.

If the NBA fights him in a court (of either country), the league will turn ordinary Europeans against future NBA visits, expansion, and sales of merchandise (jersies, trinkets, etc.). The league will shoot itself in the foot with lost revenues if he takes it on in a court--of any continent. He'll probably win if it's in Europe and lose in the US. But either way, the league will lose big revenues. So they will settle (=he will win for himself, but not for future players).

Textbook slippery slope if I've ever seen it.

 

[jlprk]

Disprove what?

I anticipated your forgetting what we're talking about, so I repeated it for you. See the words after "You haven't disproven my thesis that" in the quote in your own post.

I don't know what you're arguing with yourself about, but what I'm arguing is that the following general statement isn't always the best way to go, because you have to keep moving some of the players out so the ones under them can rise up.

I prefer to hang onto talented young players and see what develops down the line in terms of fit.

In the very next post, someone agrees with me in principle, that the underlings will become a problem if they see no room to move up.

The trouble is keeping people happy. We saw it with O'Neal after the 1999-2000 playoffs, and we're seeing it now with Rudy. I'm sure Whitsitt would have loved to have kept O'Neal on his roster, he wouldn't have given him a contract extension if he felt otherwise. O'Neal demanded a trade and Whitsitt accommodated him. He wanted an opportunity to go somewhere and start, and that wasn't going to happen with Sheed and Sabonis securely implanted in the starting lineup.

 

[jlprk]

It's an American contract, so I don't see how he's going to be able to fight it in Europe. He might be able to sue FIBA, but I don't see how that's going to hold much water. He signed the contract with the Blazers. That contract is honored by the NBA and FIBA. They are private organizations. He has nobody to blame but himself.

No, the international contract is between FIBA and NBA. He can sue in Europe on the basis of employee rights. The unions there will back him (=pay for the lawyers). In fact, if something that happens this season riles him up enough, he can have his agent try to get the NBA union on his side. My point is that even if he's going to lose a court fight, the millions it will cost the NBA (lawyers, lost merchandising, lost goodwill in Europe, lost expansion) will cause Stern to settle with him. My overall point is that your assumption that he'll definitely stay is not assured, and so maybe we should have taken the mid-1st rounder, even if he's worth more.

 

[jlprk]

The contract he would try to overturn, of course, would be the recent agreement between the two leagues to honor each other's contracts.

 

[Minstrel]

Trouble with that is, they block other talented players from getting time. To see what develops with Bayless, we have to NOT see (we have to delay) what develops with Elliot Williams or Armon Johnson or Rudy Fernandez.

This is absolutely true. And it's a problem if you believe that the players behind Bayless are as or more talented or might be. Personally, I don't think any of the three players you mentioned are as talented as Bayless, so I'm fine with that opportunity cost. Every minute allocated to any player, even Roy, has an opportunity cost. That isn't an argument against the concept that it's worth being patient with someone who's young and talented but may not be the perfect fit at the moment, since the team can afford it, being set in the starting lineup. It's simply a constant reality that can only be dealt with via talent evaluations from the coaches/front office.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I haven't thought that for a long time, as you know. Why do you ask?

Because you still thought it long past the point I thought it reasonable. (And actually, for all I knew, you still thought it. I obviously hadn't been paying attention.)