Trade Jerryd Bayless

[Rastapopoulos]

This is absolutely true. And it's a problem if you believe that the players behind Bayless are as or more talented or might be. Personally, I don't think any of the three players you mentioned are as talented as Bayless, so I'm fine with that opportunity cost.

Thing about talent: it's not a single-axis kind of thing. Bayless is certainly more talented than any of those three at several things. But he's also less talented at several others. The question is, is he more talented in areas we need, or areas we're already well-stocked?
Here's what I think is true of Bayless: he's a very useful backup to Brandon Roy if Roy gets injured, because he can drive to the basket and get fouled with the best of them.
What he ISN'T very good at, is what he's currently being made to do: run the offense. I think it's fairly obvious that Johnson is already better than Bayless at
(1) Running the offense
(2) Playing guard defense.
Now, Bayless is a better shooter than Johnson and Williams (although not Babbitt, I'd bet a fair amount). Is that enough to warrant playing him as backup PG? I don't think so. I think part of the reason Bayless will get minutes ahead of Johnson is because he's "earned minutes" (by playing hard, being a good soldier, filling in fairly well for Roy in the playoffs) and because Nate, being old-school, believes in the Pecking Order. But I don't think he deserves them, certainly not at PG.

 

[Minstrel]

Because you still thought it long past the point I thought it reasonable. (And actually, for all I know, you still thought it.)

How is it relevant to this thread? Also, I thought it only after the 2007-08 season, just after Bayless had been drafted. At that time, Rondo hadn't been all that impressive. Midway into the next season I changed my opinion and said so (unprovoked) in a thread we were talking in (and you responded to it, so definitely saw it).

So, you didn't think I still thought it. You just decided to go for a random shot at me, since we disagree on Bayless. I guess you take enough random shots (though not from me) on all the European players you tend to be wrong on, though.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I don't see any parallels between Sergio and JB.

Other than the fact that they were both flashy backup PGs with big holes in their games?

I see a lot of parallels between Jermaine and JB.

Neither really knows how to play basketball, I guess...

 

[Rastapopoulos]

How is it relevant to this thread? Also, I thought it only after the 2007-08 season, just after Bayless had been drafted. At that time, Rondo hadn't been all that impressive. Midway into the next season I changed my opinion and said so (unprovoked) in a thread we were talking in (and you responded to it, so definitely saw it).

Just because I responded to it didn't mean it registered.

Okay, okay, I apologize for needling. Can I help it if I'm a prescient talent evaluator?

So, you didn't think I still thought it. You just decided to go for a random shot at me, since we disagree on Bayless. I guess you take enough random shots (though not from me) on all the European players you tend to be wrong on, though.

Me-OW. Since you keep better track than me, perhaps you can point me to some obvious errors I've made about my Euro-loves.

 

[Minstrel]

Thing about talent: it's not a single-axis kind of thing. Bayless is certainly more talented than any of those three at several things. But he's also less talented at several others.

Agreed, we can break down talent among various facets of the game. When I refer to "talent" in a monolithic fashion, I'm referring to overall effectiveness. There were things that Blake did better than a prime Shaq, but I'm comfortable saying that Shaq was more talented.

The question is, is he more talented in areas we need, or areas we're already well-stocked?

My point/opinion was exactly the opposite: we don't necessarily need to worry about fit, because the team is deep enough and well-rounded enough overall to absorb using a roster spot on a player who may not be an ideal fit but is more talented (than the other young options on the team or than what the team could currently get for him in trade).

As I said earlier in the thread, if Portland could get an equally talented player who fits better, that's fine...though you and I surely will differ on who is "equally talented." However, I'm not in favour of downgrading the talent represented by Bayless in order to get a player who fits better. In the end, the most talented teams win, as far as I'm concerned. I don't think a team (that is trying to compete) should ever leave talent on the table (either by swapping talent for fit in trade or by drafting need over talent). A good front office should always maximize/preserve talent while swapping pieces around to create a team that fits.

 

[Minstrel]

Me-OW.

Kitty haz claws? You and me both.

Since you keep better track than me, perhaps you can point me to some obvious errors I've made about my Euro-loves.

Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez for two. Navarro is another. If we expand this to non-US (rather than simply European), Oberto fits in.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez for two. Navarro is another. If we expand this to non-US (rather than simply European), Oberto fits in.

Those are just names. What are the errors? I believe I was one of the first to point out that the comparisons between Rudy and Manu were way overblown because Rudy can't dribble anywhere close to Ginobili's ability. And I don't think Oberto's going to get ANY PT as soon as either Joel or Greg is halfway healthy, and haven't ever thought that. Talking of Sergio, he's having fun in Europe again, something that's probably another thorn in Rudy's flesh.

(Oh: and just to prove I don't love EVERY Euro: I'm pretty sure that Claver's a total scrub. Every time I check up on him he looks worse. I don't think he'll make the next Spanish team, because San Emeterio and Carlos Suarez will supplant him.)

 

[mook]

How many recent young ex-Blazers went on to blow up for other teams? Blake? Outlaw? Telfair? Monia? Khryapa? Qyntel? Rodriguez? Green? Dixon?

The only two that come to mind are Zach Randolph and Jarret Jack. And that's an extremely loose definition of "blow up," because Randolph mostly just did what he always did (score, rebound), and Jack has just a slightly above-average PER. Neither is really a "Jermaine O'Neal"-type example.

In fact, it's really instructive that Portland fans always reference O'Neal when worrying about losing a talented youngster, or missing out because he was buried on the bench.

People, that was a full decade ago. And as has been pointed out, it's not like we didn't get anything good for him.

You may criticize Nate and Cho (and Pritchard before him) for many things, but notice how hard it is to pin "poor young talent evaluators" on them? (At least when we get the players on the roster. Drafting, of course, is more debatable.)

Just look at the track record. Until they prove otherwise, I think you have to go with what they want to do. If they think Bayless and Armon are both worth keeping around, it's hard for me to see how you can argue otherwise.

Eventually they'll make some big mistakes (everybody does), and then I'll be more circumspect. But man, just look at the recent track record.

 

[Minstrel]

Those are just names. What are the errors?

The errors are that you thought all of those players would be good NBA players. So far, none of them have been, though Rudy was solid for one season.

I believe I was one of the first to point out that the comparisons between Rudy and Manu were way overblown

We all have our minor successes in the midst of an overall failure. Even when I said I wouldn't trade Bayless for Rondo (back before the 2008-09 season) I did say that I thought Rondo was an excellent defensive player. Score.

 

[mook]

To add to my point, I think there are far more examples of where we were committed the sin of over-valuing young players than under-valuing. Imagine if we'd traded Rudy or Sergio when they were at their peak value. I think Sergio was worth a top 10 pick at one point, maybe top 5. Rudy was definitely worth a top 5 in his rookie year when he was busting the three pointer record. Ditto with Qyntel Woods and Zach Randolph and Bonzi Wells.

Remember how many panties got in a bunch when we threw in Khryapa with Tyrus Thomas to get Aldridge? I specifically remember people saying, "I'd just hate to see Khryapa go Jermaine O'Neal on us!" Seems pretty laughable now, right?

Nobody remembers much the trades that didn't happen. Seeing Jermaine O'Neal go for 20/10 in Indiana sticks in the memory because it's a powerful visual. A young Amare Stoudemire not playing in Portland because we never offered them Randolph or whoever for his draft pick isn't. But in hindsight, I'd say holding on to our guys when the Amare pick was rumored to be available was a bigger mistake than dumping Jermaine.

So the next time you hear somebody say, "Oh god, I just don't want to see him go Jermaine!" think to yourself, "You also don't want to see him go Sergio."

 

[HailBlazers]

PGOTF? Been thoroughly impressed with this kid on and off the court. Natural PG athletic defender


http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/index.ssf/2010/10/blazers_rookie_armon_johnson_w.html

 

[HailBlazers]

ah ha first comment on O-Live:

Kid is awesome. I was at the game, and dude is already a better point guard than Bayless

 

[MickZagger]

Kitty haz claws? You and me both.



Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez for two. Navarro is another. If we expand this to non-US (rather than simply European), Oberto fits in.

Rubio. Rubio. Rubio.

 

[Minstrel]

Rubio. Rubio. Rubio.

Rubio at least is still undetermined. As is Koponen.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Rubio at least is still undetermined. As is Koponen.

To be clear: I see Koponen as an Alvin Williams/Doc Rivers type: tall, solid defender, decent shot, decent passer, basically a glue guy. I hope his injury isn't serious, but it looks like we'll have to wait for him. Rubio I thought was something special, but I'm starting to worry about him not developing ANY offense. He's still a very good on-ball defender (which Sergio wasn't) and Sergio's equivalent at creative passing (that talent thing again: Sergio was better than most NBA players at at least one thing) and his stand-still three pointer is improving, but he seems to have regressed a little, and was less impressive in the Worlds than he was in the Olympics. But he is STILL only 19 (hard to believe, right?) so younger than most rookies THIS year.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The errors are that you thought all of those players would be good NBA players. So far, none of them have been, though Rudy was solid for one season.

Again with the oversimplifying. I certainly thought that Sergio and Rudy would be EXCITING, and nobody could possibly deny that that was true. I still think that both are better than many NBA players at certain skills (Sergio ball-handling and creative "how did he see that?" passing, Rudy three-point shooting and steals, and rebounding for his size and weight). I don't think that either has been proved to be NON-NBA players. I still think Sergio's talent could be used effectively for a coach that believed in him. Did Drazen Petrovic suddenly get better when he was traded to the Nets? Of course not - he just went to a coach that had to use him, and therefore was prepared to work round his defensive deficiencies. This seems to be true of a lot of foreign players: I think NBA coaches are, in the main, as Xenophobic as certain posters on here (particularly one fan of a certain white American player who, ironically, really should go to Europe). Look at Detlef Schrempf - buried in Dallas, blossomed in Indiana/Seattle. Look at Boris Diaw - did nothing in Atlanta, suddenly useful for a good Phoenix team. Look at Thabo Sefalosha. Maybe there's even hope for Darko Milicic. Of course some Euros really CAN'T play (Tskiskiwhatwashisname), but they tend to struggle when they go to Europe, too.
Incidentally, I'm not a fan of a player just because he's foreign, even if he's good. I really hate Nowitzki's game, even though I have to recognize that it's effective.

And of course, by any measure, Rudy has been the best Blazer player in this preseason. So if he's not an NBA player right now, we're in deep shit.

Even when I said I wouldn't trade Bayless for Rondo (back before the 2008-09 season) I did say that I thought Rondo was an excellent defensive player. Score.

With you that amounts to damning with faint praise. After all, you can't measure defense with PER.

 

[MickZagger]

Xenophobic huh? My favorite college player is Elias Harris, guess where he's from?

Detlef Schrempf played his high school and college ball in the U.S. He was born in Germany, sure.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

So the next time you hear somebody say, "Oh god, I just don't want to see him go Jermaine!" think to yourself, "You also don't want to see him go Sergio."

To complicate matters, I don't think Jermaine would've "gone Jermaine" had he stayed. Some players really need a change of scenery and to go somewhere new to reinvent themselves. I think Jermaine had just lost confidence in himself and lost the confidence of the coaching staff (he'd certainly lost Sabas's confidence - he said something to the effect that Jermaine was a moron). Meanwhile, Indiana was the PERFECT situation for him. Say what you like about Isiah, but when he believed in a player, he could get the most out of him. He made Damon ROY. He even got Eddy Curry looking good (briefly) in NY.

I don't regret losing Jermaine. Let him have his success. At least it was just for the Pacers and not the Lakers or something. It's a mistake and unfair to hoard too many players and stunt their growth if they'd be happier elsewhere. It's like any industry. Bayless will never be a decent PG, and he'll never supplant Brandon. Let him get his chance at being Petrovic. (Do people regret trading Petrovic, too?)

 

[Rastapopoulos]

How many recent young ex-Blazers went on to blow up for other teams? Blake? Outlaw? Telfair? Monia? Khryapa? Qyntel? Rodriguez? Green? Dixon?

Well, Qyntel's a GOD in Poland, and Viktor was voted the best defensive player in Europe (and a star player for CSKA Moskow - you know, the team that just beat Cleveland in Cleveland without him). Viktor wouldn't come back to the NBA even if asked - he's earning more money there than he would here.

Qyntel would, of course, and if he had Michael Vick's talent, he'd get another chance. But, to be fair, Poland is not one of the better leagues...

 

[THE HCP]

2 seasons ago I averaged 24/12 in Poland!

 

[andalusian]

2 seasons ago I averaged 24/12 in Poland!

What is this? The number of mail-brides you wrote to and the number that bothered emailing "NO" back?

 

[Natebishop3]

What is this? The number of mail-brides you wrote to and the number that bothered emailing "NO" back?

Number of twinkies over a 12 hour period.

 

[THE HCP]

Number of twinkies over a 12 hour period.

Totally uncalled for!

 

[Minstrel]

With you that amounts to damning with faint praise.

Not at all. Defense is probably my most valued attribute in a player. My all-time favourite player, by a wide margin, is Scottie Pippen, who derived a massive amount of his value from defense. I loved Stacey Augmon, even if he was offensively inept at the NBA level. I loved watching the Jordan/Pippen/Rodman/Harper Bulls mostly because of their defense. Same for the Celtics of recent vintage.

The reason I valued Bayless over Rondo way back then, prior to Bayless having played in the NBA, was because I read a lot about how Bayless was active and quick on defense and projected to be a good defender, in addition to being a dynamic offensive player.

Defense is extremely important to me. It's why Batum and Oden are my favourite players on this team.

After all, you can't measure defense with PER.

Kind of a non-sequitur, though I realize why you said it. I view PER as a good measure of production--everything that isn't defense.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

*bump*

Ask and ye shall receive. Okay, now get Varejao for me please Mr. Cho.

 

[BGrantFan]

*bump*

Ask and ye shall receive. Okay, now get Varejao for me please Mr. Cho.

Yeah, you really nailed that one!

Long story short, if there's one player I want moved before the season starts, it's Bayless. But I can't really think of a trade that makes sense to both sides.

So, how does the trade make sense for both sides, and what has changed since you posted this sentence?

 

[BGrantFan]

*bump*

Ask and ye shall receive. Okay, now get Varejao for me please Mr. Cho.

Varejao for Oberto/filler. I called it!

 

[Nikolokolus]

Varejao for Oberto/filler. I called it!

It can't happen for 90 days, but I would love that. More realistic is trading Joel's expiring contract and maybe some youngins like Babbitt or Williams.

 

[Minstrel]

It can't happen for 90 days, but I would love that.

It can't happen ever, because it's absurdly lopsided in Portland's favor. But I think that was purposeful on BGrantFan's part.

 

[barfo]

he'd certainly lost Sabas's confidence - he said something to the effect that Jermaine was a moron

I totally missed hearing about that - but I agree with Sabas.

barfo