Trail Blazers gear up for legislative ask that would ‘guarantee’ team’s future in Portland (4 Viewers)

[BoBoBREWSKI]

Good point @SharpesTriumph
I’ll bet the income tax generated from the Moda Center & its games, concerts, shows is more than what these small towns/cities who oppose this generate.

 

[Samuel]

View attachment 81262

so, the initial numbers are kind of convoluted, but pretty clearly the entities covering most of the cost are the city and the corporation that owns the Calgary team

according to the deal, the province Alberta, is covering 3.5% of the cost. Meanwhile, this proposal for the Blazers has the State of Oregon covering 60% of the cost. This proposal is upside down and Portland interests are forcing the rest of the state to put money into the project they shouldn't have to.

I just googled the GDP numbers for Multnomah (91B), Washington (63B), and Clackamas counties (29B). Julius gets an assist!. That's 183B in GDP, annually, as a baseline. The renovation cost of 600M is only 0.328% of the combined GDP; less than 1/3 of 1%.

if you assume an annual inflation rate for the 20 year duration of the bonds, (which also matches what the advocates are saying will be the life-cycle of the renovation), and apply that to 183M, the average GD. That means the renovation cost of the Moda represents 0.0133333% of the combined GDP. And these counties are asking the entire state to cover 60% of the cost.

and so far, I have not heard of Dundon contributing one dollar or him guaranteeing this renovation will extend to lease past 2030

I think it's fair to wait on Dundon crew arena commitments until he actually takes over. but yea, not expecting much.

 

[BigGameDamian]

 

[wizenheimer]

I thought I'd do a bit of research on the financing of The Matthew Knight Arena at the UofO. I knew that Phil Knight contributed 100M to the project and that the Arena cost a projected 200M that ended up around 230M

to start with, the UofO did not own the land. It was purchased by the UO Foundation with is a 501c charitable corporation. They bought it for around 5.2M in 2005 and subsequently 'sold' it to the UofO later. How much of a discount the foundation gave the UofO is not clear

Phil Knight's 100M donation did not go directly to construction costs. Rather it was a fund designed to backstop bond debt service and bond retirement:


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the bonding was a 200M sale designed to fund the entire cost of the project. The 27M over the budget was paid by donations and probably most of that by PK


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so, in one way it's similar to the Moda plan in that state-backed bonds are/were the majority of the financing. The big difference is that the debt service and repayment of the bonds does not come out of the state's general fund; rather it's financed by athletic department revenue and I'm assuming interest and dividends paid on the 100M from Phil Knight. What happens toward the end of the bond term I'm not sure. It might be that the 100M from PK will cover the last few calls and retire the bonds early

what is of note is that those bonds were taxable; meaning higher interest rates. If the debt debt service on 200M in bonds is 14.5M/year, the debt service on 360M bonds might be substantially higher. If the interest tiers and call schedule were the same then the debt service on the Moda bonds would be 25-26M/year....which the jock tax wouldn't come close to covering

and it's notable that construction of the UofO facility began is 2008 in the middle of the financial crisis when interest rates were quite low. How those interest rates will compare to Moda financing is unclear

the UofO did get in a little bit of hot water in 2021 when it was revealed they had moved 5-6M from one fund to pay for bond interest. That went against the rules of the financing deal, but the UofO ws in a bit of a bind because of the Covid crisis and an empty arena

 

[SlyPokerDog]

If Washington does a Jock Tax, we should get Clark County's share of it.

 

[inconceivable]

Adam Silver press con about to start

 

[THE HCP]

2 cities announced!!!!!!!!

 

[THE HCP]

Grand Forks, ND and…….

 

[THE HCP]

Weed, CA

 

[inconceivable]

Weed, CA

stop smoking weed. It was Seattle and Las Vegas.

The Blazer-relevant bit out of that entire Q&A came in early when Adam was answering questions about expansion and relocation. He said, relocation is not in the cards right now. So it appear the. Blazers with not be moving to Seattle or Vegas at least.

Potentiol emoval of picks from tankers was talked about. He just said, yeah, we're looking at that.

They're seeing tanking to be more blatant thos season which prompted to the fines.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Link to press conf?

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

The fear mongerers are shocked! Shocked, I tell ya.

We aren't losing the Blazers folks. I can't believe people thought we would.

 

[Everything Beagle]

The fear mongerers are shocked! Shocked, I tell ya.

We aren't losing the Blazers folks. I can't believe people thought we would.

If you always assume the worst, every surprise is pleasant.

 

[inconceivable]

If you always assume the worst, every surprise is pleasant.

in my experience, lowering expectations hasn't translated to lack of disappointments.

 

[Everything Beagle]

You just haven’t lowered them enough!

 

[wizenheimer]

[

We aren't losing the Blazers folks. I can't believe people thought we would.

well then you need to tell that to the Mayor, the city council, county commissioners, the governor, her aides, and all the local and state politicians who are scrambling around in an urgent and rather haphazard fashion to come up with a dubious funding plan for a 32 year old building before the new owner takes over the Blazers. They all obviously believe the risk was high enough to take this action. Of course, some of them have actually talked to Dundon and a couple to the NBA commissioner so maybe their information and sense of things is different than Mr. Jfizzle

you're also got the mayor now talking about needing a 20 year guarantee from Dundon before taking the plan forward. Not sure why that guarantee would be needed if it was certain the Blazers definitely staying in Portland.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

well then you need to tell that to the Mayor, the city council, county commissioners, the governor, her aides, and all the local and state politicians who are scrambling around in an urgent and rather haphazard fashion to come up with a dubious funding plan for a 32 year old building before the new owner takes over the Blazers. They all obviously believe the risk was high enough to take this action. Of course, some of them have actually talked to Dundon and a couple to the NBA commissioner so maybe their information and sense of things is different than Mr. Jfizzle

you're also got the mayor now talking about needing a 20 year guarantee from Dundon before taking the plan forward. Not sure why that guarantee would be needed if it was certain the Blazers definitely staying in Portland.

Because they want to make sure the Blazers stay. There is a vested interest in all parties to get a deal done. This is called a negotiation. The owner has to pay a relocation fee in order to move anyways. It isn't like the Blazers haven't shown they can make a profit here.

If the City, County and State allocate resources to the remodel, they obviously are going to want a commitment from the team. The team is one of the biggest attractions at the venue.

But the Commissioner just came out and said relocation isn't on the table right now. That kinda kills your narrative.

But carry on with the pants pooping party if that fills your cup.

 

[wizenheimer]

But the Commissioner just came out and said relocation isn't on the table right now. That kinda kills your narrative.

lol...that doesn't mean a damn thing

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

lol...that doesn't mean a damn thing

Damn. You are right. We are losing the team.

My guess is to Omaha Nebraska.

 

[Hoopguru]

Rip City, Not Rip Off

$600M in public money. $0 back to taxpayers. Portland owns the arena — here's the deal that makes it pay for itself.

www.ripcitynotripoff.com

 

[wizenheimer]

Damn. You are right. We are losing the team.

My guess is to Omaha Nebraska.

I have never said Portland is losing the Blazers...take you straw man to a field and burn it

what I have said it that the lease only runs till 2030 and that a renovation of a 35 year old arena may not be enough to secure a guarantee that Dundon will not look for another location after the lease expires. I think it's pretty clear the preference of the NBA and probably Dundon is for a new arena somewhere in Portland that allows for better economic development adjacent to the new arena. Maybe a renovation of Moda will be enough to satisfy all parties but that's not certain at this point

I've also been saying I'd like to see some financial commitment from the Dundon group relating to the Moda. Either money toward renovation or development around the site. Until I see that, I'm personally opposed to raiding the state's general fund to come to the aid of a billionaire

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I have never said Portland is losing the Blazers...take you straw man to a field and burn it

what I have said it that the lease only runs till 2030 and that a renovation of a 35 year old arena may not be enough to secure a guarantee that Dundon will not look for another location after the lease expires. I think it's pretty clear the preference of the NBA and probably Dundon is for a new arena somewhere in Portland that allows for better economic development adjacent to the new arena. Maybe a renovation of Moda will be enough to satisfy all parties but that's not certain at this point

I've also been saying I'd like to see some financial commitment from the Dundon group relating to the Moda. Either money toward renovation or development around the site. Until I see that, I'm personally opposed to raiding the state's general fund to come to the aid of a billionaire

Omaha Nebraska is a pretty great spot. They could be called the Omaha Fishermen. I like it.

You understand that spending general fund money on this is an investment right? To continue receiving dollars towards the general fund from players, entertainers etc.

 

[THE HCP]

Omaha Nebraska is a pretty great spot. They could be called the Omaha Fishermen. I like it.

You understand that spending general fund money on this is an investment right? To continue receiving dollars towards the general fund from players, entertainers etc.

Omaha actually has a nice arena. Looks like a mini RG!

 

[Samuel]

some scuttlebutt circulating that Memphis might move to Nashville at some point.

also can we stop conflating thoughtful concern with ‘fear-mongering’ etc. silver said relocation is not on the docket for the march meeting. that’s all he said. He’s a lawyer, that is a singular statement about a moment in time; he would never say something that would kill his incoming owners’ leverage.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

some scuttlebutt circulating that Memphis might move to Nashville at some point.

also can we stop conflating thoughtful concern with ‘fear-mongering’ etc. silver said relocation is not on the docket for the march meeting. that’s all he said. He’s a lawyer, that is a singular statement about a moment in time; he would never say something that would kill his incoming owners’ leverage.

There are absolutely people that are fear mongerers around this. They have somehow convinced themselves we are going to lose the team. The truth is relocation rarely happens. Negotiations often happen and there usually is some breakdown of amount funded by the public and a percentage funded by the owner.

Thoughtful concern is different than someone convincing themselves we are going to lose the team for any reason they can find.

How did you interpret that relocation is only off the table for the March Meeting?

Silver said that relocation is not on the table right now. Probably because he doesnt want it as an option before the conversation happens. However, they will continue to explore expansion after that meeting, i'm sure. That doesn't mean that relocation is never going to be on the table. But add in relocation fees, the current lease through 2030 etc. They aren't going to have a team leave that has shown to be profitable. Not all cities support teams that they could move to.

 

[Samuel]

There are absolutely people that are fear mongerers around this. They have somehow convinced themselves we are going to lose the team. The truth is relocation rarely happens. Negotiations often happen and there usually is some breakdown of amount funded by the public and a percentage funded by the owner.

Thoughtful concern is different than someone convincing themselves we are going to lose the team for any reason they can find.

How did you interpret that relocation is only off the table for the March Meeting?

Silver said that relocation is not on the table right now. Probably because he doesnt want it as an option before the conversation happens. However, they will continue to explore expansion after that meeting, i'm sure. That doesn't mean that relocation is never going to be on the table. But add in relocation fees, the current lease through 2030 etc. They aren't going to have a team leave that has shown to be profitable. Not all cities support teams that they could move to.

the verbatim quote is ‘it’s not on the table right now.’ The premise of the entire press conference is a state of the union about what the owners are going to discuss in their march meeting. They’re going to talk about expansion and review research about that. Relocation is not something they are going to discuss at that meeting. That doesn’t mean they won’t discuss it in the future. New Orleans and Memphis, for example.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

the verbatim quote is ‘it’s not on the table right now.’ The premise of the entire press conference is a state of the union about what the owners are going to discuss in their march meeting. They’re going to talk about expansion and review research about that. Relocation is not something they are going to discuss at that meeting. That doesn’t mean they won’t discuss it in the future. New Orleans and Memphis, for example.

I guess I disagree with you on the comment only being in relation to the March meeting.



I'm not saying it will never ever ever ever be on the table. But it seems kinda weird to me to come away with that comment only being in relation to a March meeting they aren't even gonna have a vote for and will center around continuing to explore expansion.

Again, doesn't mean it can't change in the future. But I highly doubt it changes in say April. The Oregon legislature session will have ended by then so we will also know how that plays out.

Its a pretty strong statement to me that Silver is much more focused on expansion than letting other teams move around.

 

[wizenheimer]

Omaha Nebraska is a pretty great spot. They could be called the Omaha Fishermen. I like it.

You understand that spending general fund money on this is an investment right? To continue receiving dollars towards the general fund from players, entertainers etc.

yeah, I'm not so stupid to know about taxes and the general fund. I also know what an investment is and I've been around long enough to know that an investment that looks good going in can look like shit at the end.

I'd really like to see a feasibility study comparing the upside/downside of 'investing' 600M in a 32 year old building vs investing 1.2B in a brand new arena in possibly, a better location for long term development. So far, the most prominent components of this current proposal is it's vagueness and it's questionable assumptions. You keep saying there's no chance of the Blazers actually leaving....well, if that's the case, then what is the fucking hurry about getting this money grab shoved thru the process?

by the way, you keep saying Omaha as if that's an effective argument because the notion is so ludicrous. I'm quite sure that at the beginning, Sonics fans would have ridiculed the notion that the Sonics would more to OKC. After all, the Seattle metro area's population was 3 times that of OKC. Note that Portland's metro population is only 2.5 times that of Omaha. But of course, that isn't the only alternative when it comes to metro areas:

Riverside/San Bernardino 4.74M
Montreal 4.4M
Tampa/St. Pete 3.43M
San Diego 3.3M
Vancouver 3.1M
St Louis 2.81M
Austin 2.55M
Portland 2.53M
Pittsburgh 2.43M
Cincinnati 2.3M
Kansas City 2.25M
Nashville 2.2M

Omaha isn't the only viable candidate if it comes to that

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

yeah, I'm not so stupid to know about taxes and the general fund. I also know what an investment is and I've been around long enough to know that an investment that looks good going in can look like shit at the end.

I'd really like to see a feasibility study comparing the upside/downside of 'investing' 600M in a 32 year old building vs investing 1.2B in a brand new arena in possibly, a better location for long term development. So far, the most prominent components of this current proposal is it's vagueness and it's questionable assumptions. You keep saying there's no chance of the Blazers actually leaving....well, if that's the case, then what is the fucking hurry about getting this money grab shoved thru the process?

by the way, you keep saying Omaha as if that's an effective argument because the notion is so ludicrous. I'm quite sure that at the beginning, Sonics fans would have ridiculed the notion that the Sonics would more to OKC. After all, the Seattle metro area's population was 3 times that of OKC. Note that Portland's metro population is only 2.5 times that of Omaha. But of course, that isn't the only alternative when it comes to metro areas:

Riverside/San Bernardino 4.74M
Montreal 4.4M
Tampa/St. Pete 3.43M
San Diego 3.3M
Vancouver 3.1M
St Louis 2.81M
Austin 2.55M
Portland 2.53M
Pittsburgh 2.43M
Cincinnati 2.3M
Kansas City 2.25M
Nashville 2.2M

Omaha isn't the only viable candidate if it comes to that

Populations don't necessarily mean success and is just one statistic used to scare people.

You can look up media markets and see the only one that you list that has a larger media market is Tampa. I'd think the Heat and Magic owners would shit bricks if there was a vote on the Blazers potentially moving to Florida.

The Canada cities maybe too. I don't think they would be in a rush to grab a franchise though with all the geopolitical stuff going on.

Seattle is a different situation. There was a long running dispute between the owner and the govt in how the renovations were going to get paid. I think Portland and the state have done a good job showing it is important to them to keep the team. This is all a part of the negotiation.

I don't see the owner holding up 200 million or whatever in renovations and freely wanting to spend that in relocation fees unless it was to Vegas.

But again, Silver does not seem to want to entertain that right now and is most focused on expansion.

 

[wizenheimer]

Populations don't necessarily mean success and is just one statistic used to scare people.

say the guy who keeps saying Omaha...