Politics TRUMP, PUTIN, AND THE NEW COLD WAR

[SlyPokerDog]

1. SOFT TARGETS

On April 12, 1982, Yuri Andropov, the chairman of the K.G.B., ordered foreign-intelligence operatives to carry out “active measures”—aktivniye meropriyatiya—against the reëlection campaign of President Ronald Reagan. Unlike classic espionage, which involves the collection of foreign secrets, active measures aim at influencing events—at undermining a rival power with forgeries, front groups, and countless other techniques honed during the Cold War. The Soviet leadership considered Reagan an implacable militarist. According to extensive notes made by Vasili Mitrokhin, a high-ranking K.G.B. officer and archivist who later defected to Great Britain, Soviet intelligence tried to infiltrate the headquarters of the Republican and Democratic National Committees, popularize the slogan “Reagan Means War!,” and discredit the President as a corrupt servant of the military-industrial complex. The effort had no evident effect. Reagan won forty-nine of fifty states....

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/06/trump-putin-and-the-new-cold-war

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Active measures were used by both sides throughout the Cold War. In the nineteen-sixties, Soviet intelligence officers spread a rumor that the U.S. government was involved in the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr. In the eighties, they spread the rumor that American intelligence had “created” the aids virus, at Fort Detrick, Maryland. They regularly lent support to leftist parties and insurgencies. The C.I.A., for its part, worked to overthrow regimes in Iran, Cuba, Haiti, Brazil, Chile, and Panama. It used cash payments, propaganda, and sometimes violent measures to sway elections away from leftist parties in Italy, Guatemala, Indonesia, South Vietnam, and Nicaragua. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in the early nineties, the C.I.A. asked Russia to abandon active measures to spread disinformation that could harm the U.S. Russia promised to do so. But when Sergey Tretyakov, the station chief for Russian intelligence in New York, defected, in 2000, he revealed that Moscow’s active measures had never subsided. “Nothing has changed,” he wrote, in 2008. “Russia is doing everything it can today to embarrass the U.S.”

Vladimir Putin, who is quick to accuse the West of hypocrisy, frequently points to this history. He sees a straight line from the West’s support of the anti-Moscow “color revolutions,” in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Ukraine, which deposed corrupt, Soviet-era leaders, to its endorsement of the uprisings of the Arab Spring. Five years ago, he blamed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the anti-Kremlin protests in Moscow’s Bolotnaya Square. “She set the tone for some of our actors in the country and gave the signal,” Putin said. “They heard this and, with the support of the U.S. State Department, began active work.” (No evidence was provided for the accusation.) He considers nongovernmental agencies and civil-society groups like the National Endowment for Democracy, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the election-monitoring group Golos to be barely disguised instruments of regime change.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/06/trump-putin-and-the-new-cold-war

 

[Nikolokolus]

Well it's a good thing Russia stopped doing that long ago ...

 

[Denny Crane]

Proof Trump is Putin's puppet, eh?

 

[riverman]

Proof Trump is Putin's puppet, eh?

just brothers in arms really...both against the press and both hate Europe...both want to expand nukes and pump up the military...both like locker room talk and blondes with Balkan accents

 

[Denny Crane]

just brothers in arms really...both against the press and both hate Europe...both want to expand nukes and pump up the military...both like locker room talk and blondes with Balkan accents

I don't see why Russia wants to get into spending huge amounts of its economy on nukes that won't get used. That arms race is one they're easily going to lose, and lose badly.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Proof Trump is Putin's puppet, eh?

I'm not sure I buy the "puppet" angle, but I do think they benefit by from the chaos, especially if the goal is to weaken the NATO alliance and break-up the EU. I suspect Putin's long game is to reunify the old Soviet empire. First Georgia, then Ukraine, then? . . . Who knows, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia?

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm not sure I buy the "puppet" angle, but I do think they benefit by from the chaos, especially if the goal is to weaken the NATO alliance and break-up the EU. I suspect Putin's long game is to reunify the old Soviet empire. First Georgia, then Ukraine, then? . . . Who knows, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia?

What would Obama have done to stop Putin if he just took over all those places?

There's another way to look at Putin's motives. When the USSR broke up, the West started inviting ex-Soviet bloc nations to join NATO and also installs missiles and other weapons and bases in those states. That's a huge threat to Russia's security.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Maybe we should have elected Romney then?

 

[Nikolokolus]

What would Obama have done to stop Putin if he just took over all those places?

There's another way to look at Putin's motives. When the USSR broke up, the West started inviting ex-Soviet bloc nations to join NATO and also installs missiles and other weapons and bases in those states. That's a huge threat to Russia's security.

Obama didn't do anything but impose sanctions. I'm not sure what your angle is? I thought Obmama was most a limp dick, in over his head when it came to foreign policy, even if I thought he was a pretty good orator and did "OK" on few domestic things.

As for inviting those countries into NATO, what we're we supposed to do? If they wanted in, it seems reasonable that it was because they didn't want to be under Russia's umbrella and feared that the day would come again when Russian tanks would be rolling through their streets.

Russia has and probably always will be a country intent on dominating its neighbors; it's been that way since the Kievan Rus.

 

[Denny Crane]

Obama didn't do anything but impose sanctions. I'm not sure what your angle is? I thought Obmama was most a limp dick, in over his head when it came to foreign policy, even if I thought he was a pretty good orator and did "OK" on few domestic things.

As for inviting those countries into NATO, what we're we supposed to do? If they wanted in, it seems reasonable that it was because they didn't want to be under Russia's umbrella and feared that the day would come again when Russian tanks would be rolling through their streets.

Russia has and probably always will be a country intent on dominating its neighbors; it's been that way since the Kievan Rus.

I was suggesting Obama would have let Putin take over all those countries, only imposing sanctions in response. If Russia wanted to, it would have done so.

As for NATO, invite Russia into it. Or honor Russia's wishes when it comes to which of its former bloc should be allowed into NATO. Like we do with the one China policy.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I was suggesting Obama would have let Putin take over all those countries, only imposing sanctions in response. If Russia wanted to, it would have done so.

As for NATO, invite Russia into it. Or honor Russia's wishes when it comes to which of its former bloc should be allowed into NATO. Like we do with the one China policy.

I don't think Putin's ambitions have been sated. Not for a second. I suspect he's waiting to see what happens in France, and if Le Pen gets elected and starts making noises about pulling out of the EU, leaving Germany isolated, and the NATO alliance even more unlikely to respond to Russian aggression.

Secondly, what would be the point of inviting Russia into NATO? they are the reason NATO was formed. As for honoring their wishes, maybe that was the right move right after the Easter Bloc fell, but 20+ years later, there's no putting the genie back in the bottle.

 

[riverman]

Obama would have let Putin take over all those countries

As far as I'm concerned...Europes border tensions with Russia have been accumulative since WWII ended...NATO was initially a response to this...why is it always the responsibility of the US to police the Balkans? We just moved troops to the border of Poland under Trumps watch. We are a MEMBER of NATO...not it's overlord....NATO needs to address Russian imperialism on the homefront...the US should play a role but not shoulder the entire burdon every damned time. I don't even want any of our troops stationed in Europe period....blaming Obama but letting all the Euro union NATO member countries leaders out of the picture isn't fair. The Ukraine needs to solidify it's alliances in the region as well. If Mexico invades Guatemala, we don't expect China to come to the rescue.

 

[Nikolokolus]

As far as I'm concerned...Europes border tensions with Russia have been accumulative since WWII ended...NATO was initially a response to this...why is it always the responsibility of the US to police the Balkans? We just moved troops to the border of Poland under Trumps watch. We are a MEMBER of NATO...not it's overlord....NATO needs to address Russian imperialism on the homefront...the US should play a role but not shoulder the entire burdon every damned time. I don't even want any of our troops stationed in Europe period....blaming Obama but letting all the Euro union NATO member countries leaders out of the picture isn't fair. The Ukraine needs to solidify it's alliances in the region as well. If Mexico invades Guatemala, we don't expect China to come to the rescue.

Much, much older than that.

 

[riverman]

Much, much older than that.

you are correct...goes back much further..good catch....I guess I was thinking more of US involvement in Europe and Eurasia...hell even the countries have changed over the centuries..

 

[MarAzul]

Good Lord!
Why the hell do the Democrats, Rhinos and fakenews want to restart the cold war? Are all these hawks too young and missed the action when it was the dominate issue of the day?
What the hell of significance happened? The previous Democrat in charge was hitting the toy reset button! The world is great, no worry, we hit the reset! WTF?

uh, MarAzul! They lost an election! They need an issue to rally around!

 

[barfo]

Good Lord!
Why the hell do the Democrats, Rhinos and fakenews want to restart the cold war? Are all these hawks too young and missed the action when it was the dominate issue of the day?
What the hell of significance happened? The previous Democrat in charge was hitting the toy reset button! The world is great, no worry, we hit the reset! WTF?

uh, MarAzul! They lost an election! They need an issue to rally around!

Suppose it was Iran that fucked with our election in cahoots with Trump. Would that be better for you?

barfo

 

[riverman]

Why the hell do the Democrats, Rhinos and fakenews want to restart the cold war

They don't....cold war door swings both ways Marz....Putin is holding it open...is it fake news that we have moved thousands of soldiers to the border of Poland under the CURRENT administration or that Iran is now free to build all the nukes it wants to? You can observe the current geopolitical climate from viewpoints that are pretty far away from even the political systems here stateside....I read the BBC and Taiwan news probably more often than any major US outlet, although I read plenty of articles here as well.....if you buy into Trump's media conspiracy fears...you really shut off the associated press feed. Choices..plenty of people are concerned about our foreign policy and Russia's without being a member of the Democratic party and whatever African endangered species you were talking about....I've yet to hear anyone in my neck of the woods ever talk about wanting to start a cold war with Russia.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Suppose it was Iran that fucked with our election in cahoots with Trump. Would that be better for you?

barfo

Trump would have won the popular vote if you took away all the polling places that faced Mecca.

 

[riverman]

Trump would have won the popular vote if you took away all the polling places that faced Mecca.

he would've lost if they were all in Spanish though

 

[MarAzul]

Suppose it was Iran that fucked with our election in cahoots with Trump. Would that be better for you?

barfo

I can't even conceive of the circumstances where Iran would have wanted Trump instead of Clinton. So, no, that doesn't work at all.

 

[riverman]

Iran has just had the most moderate leader they've had in a long time...Trump will set back progress because now the tribal warlords will go right back to where they were when Khomeini took power after the Shah left

 

[MarAzul]

is it fake news that we have moved thousands of soldiers to the border of Poland under the CURRENT administration

>>> apparently
L = Wind direction relative to bow of boat (apparent wind direction)
Ummm, not sure how I screwed this up but it was link to and article about Obama ordering troop to Poland in January. Ah this one.
http://www.theblaze.com/news/2017/0...ps-into-poland-to-counter-russian-aggression/

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/14/europe/poland-us-troops-nato-welcome/

Iran is now free to build all the nukes it wants to?

It was fake new that this was ever impeded.

 

[riverman]

It was fake new that this was ever impeded

you believe the UN inspectors ...multi nationals...buried an ongoing weapons program in Iran? They are being very transparent about what they're doing now and according to Iranian news...they're blaming it on Trump's blockade...if we're going to call them an enemy...what else would they do?

 

[Denny Crane]

I don't think Putin's ambitions have been sated. Not for a second. I suspect he's waiting to see what happens in France, and if Le Pen gets elected and starts making noises about pulling out of the EU, leaving Germany isolated, and the NATO alliance even more unlikely to respond to Russian aggression.

Secondly, what would be the point of inviting Russia into NATO? they are the reason NATO was formed. As for honoring their wishes, maybe that was the right move right after the Easter Bloc fell, but 20+ years later, there's no putting the genie back in the bottle.

Russia isn't the USSR anymore. NATO's function against that enemy has long been pointless.

NATO will fulfill its functions if there is aggression against a member country. I don't see how EU or no EU makes a difference - it functioned fine before there was an EU.

 

[Denny Crane]

As far as I'm concerned...Europes border tensions with Russia have been accumulative since WWII ended...NATO was initially a response to this...why is it always the responsibility of the US to police the Balkans? We just moved troops to the border of Poland under Trumps watch. We are a MEMBER of NATO...not it's overlord....NATO needs to address Russian imperialism on the homefront...the US should play a role but not shoulder the entire burdon every damned time. I don't even want any of our troops stationed in Europe period....blaming Obama but letting all the Euro union NATO member countries leaders out of the picture isn't fair. The Ukraine needs to solidify it's alliances in the region as well. If Mexico invades Guatemala, we don't expect China to come to the rescue.

Thank Obama.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/14/europe/poland-us-troops-nato-welcome/

Updated 5:38 PM ET, Sat January 14, 2017 (1 week before Obama left office)

Poland welcomes thousands of US troops in NATO show of force

 

[riverman]

Thank Obama.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/14/europe/poland-us-troops-nato-welcome/

Updated 5:38 PM ET, Sat January 14, 2017 (1 week before Obama left office)

Poland welcomes thousands of US troops in NATO show of force

according to that article...it should read...thanks military advisors....Mattis is all for it

 

[Denny Crane]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...nato-and-nato-said-no/?utm_term=.d7e885eee041

The Kremlin has warned that if Ukraine attempted to join NATO, any chances for peace would be derailed.

It's a problem for NATO. But in an alternative universe, the problem would be very different. That's because Ukraine would already be a NATO member, with its 2008 application to join the military alliance winning acceptance.

...

Russia, however, was openly hostile to Ukrainian membership in NATO. The Kremlin opposed any eastward expansion of the alliance, and Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that NATO membership would force Russia to treat Ukraine as an enemy. "It is horrible to say and even horrible to think that, in response to the deployment of [NATO missile facilities] in Ukrainian territory, which cannot theoretically be ruled out, Russia could target its missile systems at Ukraine," Putin when Yushchenko visited the Kremlin in February 2008. "Imagine this just for a second."

Russia's opposition caused consternation among some NATO members. "We are opposed to the entry of Georgia and Ukraine because we think that it is not a good answer to the balance of power within Europe and between Europe and Russia," French Prime Minister François Fillon reportedly said in a radio interview. That consternation proved vital.

During NATO's 2008 summit in Bucharest, Romania, the issue was discussed and, after opposition from France and Germany, a decision was made to offer neither Ukraine nor Georgia a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) — essentially a path for Ukraine to receive membership — at that moment.

(Russian military intervention in Ukraine started in 2014).

Ukraine's NATO application is worth revisiting, and not just to ponder theoretical "what if" scenarios. The application and the events that followed reveal a number of factors that are relevant to Ukraine's ongoing crisis.

(If Russia were offered to join NATO, why would they oppose its former satellites joining as well?)

 

[Denny Crane]

according to that article...it should read...thanks military advisors....Mattis is all for it

Obama was commander in chief.

But the buck never stops with him. (I'd use green font, but that's not sarcasm but truth).