Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!) (2 Viewers)

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Every poll is looking good so far.

Just need this fucker to stop cheating and we'll be OK.
 
illmatic99 said:
Every poll is looking good so far.

Just need this fucker to stop cheating and we'll be OK.
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Didn't they look good in 16 though? Yes I know they're not necessarily the same, but I'm not holding my breath.
 
julius said:
Didn't they look good in 16 though? Yes I know they're not necessarily the same, but I'm not holding my breath.
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Same, but we neever saw margins like this a month before the election. Multiple polls have Biden like 10-15 points ahead.

They had actually tightened quite a bit in the weeks leading up to November in 2016.
 
illmatic99 said:
Same, but we neever saw margins like this a month before the election. Multiple polls have Biden like 10-15 points ahead.

They had actually tightened quite a bit in the weeks leading up to November in 2016.
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I hope so, but I don't put much trust into a lot of this country for making the correct decisions.
 
julius said:
Didn't they look good in 16 though? Yes I know they're not necessarily the same, but I'm not holding my breath.
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no, the polling didn't really look that good for Clinton, especially after the Comey torpedo:

* " On average across the 14 polls, Clinton’s lead is 1.9 percentage points. Chuck out the Los Angeles Times poll, which has been an outlier all year, and her lead is 2.5 percentage points. Or you can take the median instead of the average, which is also 2.5 points. Use only polls rated A-minus or higher? Her lead is 2.6 points. Use live-telephone polls only? It’s 2.3 points. Use only polls used to determine eligibility for the presidential debates? That gets you to 3.5 points. Use only the very recent surveys, which conducted all of their interviews in November? Her lead averages 2.3 points in those.


The point is that however you slice the data, you end up with a Clinton lead in the range of 2 to 3 percentage points. Our national polling average, which weights the higher-rated polls more heavily, is slightly toward the higher end of that range, showing her up by 2.8 points."

That isn’t a great set of results for Clinton. The Iowa and New Mexico polls in particular show a significant underperformance compared with President Obama — and the Iowa poll comes from perhaps the best pollster in the country. The Pennsylvania result is fine for Clinton, and the Ohio numbers aren’t bad — but remember, Ohio is a state Obama won by 3 points four years ago, so we’re really lowering our expectations for Clinton to count polls showing a rough tie there as a good result for her.Also, YouGov showed Clinton 4 points ahead in Ohio last month, so the trend line is negative for her there in that poll.
All of this data is nevertheless consistent with Clinton being an Electoral College favorite. She has a 64 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in our polls-only model and 65 percent in polls-plus, putting her somewhere in the range of being a 2-1 favorite.


At the same time, it shouldn’t be hard to see how Clinton could lose. She’s up by about 3 percentage points nationally, and 3-point polling errors happen fairly often, including in the last two federal elections. Obama beat his polls by about 3 points in 2012, whereas Republicans beat their polls by 3 to 4 points in the 2014 midterms. If such an error were to favor Clinton, she could win in a borderline landslide. If the error favored Trump, however, she’d be in a dicey position, because the error is highly correlated across states."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/

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basically, 538 had the 2016 pegged before-hand. Their algorithms said the national polling gave Clinton a 1.9-2.4% aggregate lead. And she ended up winning the popular vote by 2.3%

the electoral college is skewed in favor of the R's, and the 2016 election hinged on about 100,000 votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. It was a perfect storm that gave America 4 years of trump disaster after disaster

that's why the test for Democratic Presidential candidates is to win the national vote by at least 2%, but 3% may be necessary. It's because of the fucked-up electoral college

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

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538 is the go-to site if you want to get the closest total picture on the reality of current compiled polling. That's their bread & butter. Obviously, there are no guarantees, but that will give you a decent idea of where things statnd

currently:

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

(538 grades polls for accuracy and methodology from A+ on down)
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

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generally, polls tighten as the election get closer, and this will probably happen over the next month. You should probably get nervous if the gap gets close to 5%. Not because it means that trump will win the electoral college, but because he'll be able to find more reasons to challenge the election. A close electoral college win for Biden may end up in the courts. That's why Biden needs to pad both his national margin and electoral margin
 
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I wonder what would happen if the R's won the popular vote but lost the EC vote. I bet they'd be all in favor of abolishing it asap.
 
Road Ratt said:
Biden receives a nationally televised, hourlong infomercial.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/06/biden-nationally-televised-hourlong-infomercial-426754

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this is fucking ridiculous.....the both-sides-erism is toxic. What is the point in calling it an 'infomercial' other than Politico being able to feel good about their own 'objectivity'...?

we've had 5 years of the media giving trump hour after hour after hour of airtime. It happened before the election in 2016, and it's been exponentially increased now that he has the bully pulpit of the presidency. For fuck-sakes, just about ALL the national media, and that includes left wing media like MSNBC, gave trump at least 100 hours of infomercial when the white house was holding those daily COVID briefings. All the outlets will broadcast the entirety of any address or speech trump does from the presidential podiums in the white house. They all give trump's daily tweets, insane or not, plenty of airtime. They all broadcast trump boarding the helicopter for Walter Reed, and they all broadcast him arriving back in the white house and pulling off his mask.

I'd bet big money that trump's face and words have received 100 times, or more, the national airtime that Biden has over the last year

yet Politico thought it was journalism to go after one network's decision to give Biden airtime...fuck them for that headline

yeah, I'm over-reacting, but it's stupid journalistic decisions like the ones Politico made right there that got us into the 4 year nightmare of the trump presidency
 
wizenheimer said:
this is fucking ridiculous.....the both-sides-erism is toxic. What is the point in calling it an 'infomercial' other than Politico being able to feel good about their own 'objectivity'...?

we've had 5 years of the media giving trump hour after hour after hour of airtime. It happened before the election in 2016, and it's been exponentially increased now that he has the bully pulpit of the presidency. For fuck-sakes, just about ALL the national media, and that includes left wing media like MSNBC, gave trump at least 100 hours of infomercial when the white house was holding those daily COVID briefings. All the outlets will broadcast the entirety of any address or speech trump does from the presidential podiums in the white house. They all give trump's daily tweets, insane or not, plenty of airtime. They all broadcast trump boarding the helicopter for Walter Reed, and they all broadcast him arriving back in the white house and pulling off his mask.

I'd bet big money that trump's face and words have received 100 times, or more, the national airtime that Biden has over the last year

yet Politico thought it was journalism to go after one network's decision to give Biden airtime...fuck them for that headline

yeah, I'm over-reacting, but it's stupid journalistic decisions like the ones Politico made right there that got us into the 4 year nightmare of the trump presidency
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The fact that "that three of the questioners at the town hall had previously expressed at least measured support for Biden — or criticism of Trump — in appearances on sister network MSNBC."

NBC planting people in the town hall should be a red flag to anyone. It's similar to Trump hiring supporters for his rallies. It gives America a fake look at a candidate.
 
Trump was offered the same opportunity to do a town hall. His campaign never replied.
 
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