Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!) (1 Viewer)

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illmatic99 said:
It's baffling. The most confusing demographic for me is educated women voting for Trump. He insults them nonstop and is a serial misogyinist.

In 2016, I asked my boss (has two doctorates) if she had gone to the polls yet. Her response was, "no, but I'm probably not voting for the same person as everyone else we work with anyway..."

I'm worried about tonight. Even said a prayer for Joe this morning.
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I think there is probably some reason to worry, mainly because the stakes or so high....4 more years of trump and our democracy would be on fire in a dumpster in a gutter in a landfill in a super-fund site

but I also think some of the worrying might be exaggerated

for instance: the notion there is a huge wave of secret trump voters the polling is missing. That's what turned 2016 into a 4 year nightmare

now, I'm no expert, not even close; but I have read quite a bit about that missed million(s) of "secret" trump voters. It came down to basically 3 groups: 1) non-college educated whites; 2) undecided voters breaking for trump; 3) white suburban women in the rust belt

* last first, suburban white women: Clinton won about 52% of white suburban women. Latest polling had Biden winning 61% of the same group; and the district level polling in the rust belt showed an even bigger change from 2016

* undecided: they broke heavily for trump in 2016. But there were nearly 3 times as many undecided voters, according to polling, as there are now. And trump isn't a theoretical president any more; he has 4 years of failure under his belt

* non college-educated whites: this was the demographic most responsible for electing trump. The first thing to keep in mind that as a share of registered voters, since 2016, this group has dropped from 45% of the electorate to 41%. Another factor is the polling. In Michigan, for example, trump beat Clinton among this group, 62% vs 36%. The most recent polling has trump winning, but only by a 52% vs 45% margin. That's a huge difference. Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes in an election when 3rd party candidates received about 240,000 votes

but more than that, in the context of "hidden" trump voters, is a near unanimous consensus among polling firms is that their biggest polling error in 2016 was that they significantly under-sampled this non-college white category; by as much as 25%. They have all, mostly, adjusted their polling samples to account for this demographic

in other words, it looks like, those hidden trump voters in 2016 weren't really hidden. They were just under-sampled by polling, and the undecided voters were a much bigger factor than they will likely be this time around
******************************

again, this does not mean that worry isn't justified. But it does mean that 2020 is not 2016. Trump isn't a theoretical president anymore and polling has tried to do a better job of accounting for voters they missed 4 years ago

besides that, if you flashback to 2016 and start getting the yips, maybe you should keep in mind that 2 years after 2016, in 2018, there was essentially a national referendum on trump and the D's took back the House, even while facing voter suppression and wide-spread gerrymandered districts

personally, I was paying a lot of attention to polling and analysis in 2016, especially at 538, and I was very worried on election day. I thought Clinton was extremely vulnerable. I also remember Michael Moore, who has a real handle on blue-collar voters in the Rust Belt warning that he though trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania. He's cautiously optimistic this time around. So, while worried, I'm not as worried as I was in 2016.

sorry for the novel. I plan on vodka tonight, but I started with my once a week caffeinated coffee this morning. I'm setting myself up for a heart attack or stroke if things go bad over the next 24 hours. But maybe I'll just settle for cirrhosis.
 
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SlyPokerDog said:
uxna2kb0qxw51.png
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The irony
 
Im sure it wont be long and the networks will be calling the election winner as they did in 2016. I just hope they are correct this time.
 
Hoopguru said:
Im sure it wont be long and the networks will be calling the election winner as they did in 2016. I just hope they are correct this time.
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So does the majority of the rest of the free world.
 
wizenheimer said:
I think there is probably some reason to worry, mainly because the stakes or so high....4 more years of trump and our democracy would be on fire in a dumpster in a gutter in a landfill in a super-fund site

but I also think some of the worrying might be exaggerated

for instance: the notion there is a huge wave of secret trump voters the polling is missing. That's what turned 2016 into a 4 year nightmare

now, I'm no expert, not even close; but I have read quite a bit about that missed million(s) of "secret" trump voters. It came down to basically 3 groups: 1) non-college educated whites; 2) undecided voters breaking for trump; 3) white suburban women in the rust belt

* last first, suburban white women: Clinton won about 52% of white suburban women. Latest polling had Biden winning 61% of the same group; and the district level polling in the rust belt showed an even bigger change from 2016

* undecided: they broke heavily for trump in 2016. But there were nearly 3 times as many undecided voters, according to polling, as there are now. And trump isn't a theoretical president any more; he has 4 years of failure under his belt

* non college-educated whites: this was the demographic most responsible for electing trump. The first thing to keep in mind that as a share of registered voters, since 2016, this group has dropped from 45% of the electorate to 41%. Another factor is the polling. In Michigan, for example, trump beat Clinton among this group, 62% vs 36%. The most recent polling has trump winning, but only by a 52% vs 45% margin. That's a huge difference. Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes in an election when 3rd party candidates received about 240,000 votes

but more than that, in the context of "hidden" trump voters, is a near unanimous consensus among polling firms is that their biggest polling error in 2016 was that they significantly under-sampled this non-college white category; by as much as 25%. They have all, mostly, adjusted their polling samples to account for this demographic

in other words, it looks like, those hidden trump voters in 2016 weren't really hidden. They were just under-sampled by polling, and the undecided voters were a much bigger factor than they will likely be this time around
******************************

again, this does not mean that worry isn't justified. But it does mean that 2020 is not 2016. Trump isn't a theoretical president anymore and polling has tried to do a better job of accounting for voters they missed 4 years ago

besides that, if you flashback to 2016 and start getting the yips, maybe you should keep in mind that 2 years after 2016, in 2018, there was essentially a national referendum on trump and the D's took back the House, even while facing voter suppression and wide-spread gerrymandered districts

personally, I was paying a lot of attention to polling and analysis in 2016, especially at 538, and I was very worried on election day. I thought Clinton was extremely vulnerable. I also remember Michael Moore, who has a real handle on blue-collar voters in the Rust Belt warning that he though trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania. He's cautiously optimistic this time around. So, while worried, I'm not as worried as I was in 2016.

sorry for the novel. I plan on vodka tonight, but I started with my once a week caffeinated coffee this morning. I'm setting myself up for a heart attack or stroke if things go bad over the next 24 hours. But maybe I'll just settle for cirrhosis.
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I just noticed I’m in a demographic that I never realized......... Non-College Educated White/Hispanic Male
I am 3 credits short of my 2 year Applied Science degree from Mt. Hood Comm College.
Always planned on going back and finishing, but never did. Imagine what I could have accomplished had I taken that last math class.:
 
THE HCP said:
I just noticed I’m in a demographic that I never realized......... Non-College Educated White/Hispanic Male
I am 3 credits short of my 2 year Applied Science degree from Mt. Hood Comm College.
Always planned on going back and finishing, but never did. Imagine what I could have accomplished had I taken that last math class.:
Click to expand...

You could own TWO lawnmowers instead of just the ONE.
 
If Biden does win I can't wait to see Kayleigh McEnany kissing his ass (again).
 
* " On Monday CNBC reported that a shocking number of private equity firms are backing Democratic candidates for the 2020 election

Private equity firms are putting their money more than ever before in this election cycle. The CNBC host says the money is going behind a surprising choice.

CNBC's Leslie Picker said, "The private equity industry is putting a record amount of money into the election - and the vast majority of contributions to individual candidates are backing Democrats."

"61% of the industry's donations went to blue candidates while 39% backed red ones," she continued. "It's the highest proportion that the industry has given to Dems since at least 1990 and the first time the party captured a majority of PE contributions in a decade."

It is a shock since Democrats have been outwardly bashing Wall Street and want to regulate private equity firms.

Trump is so unpopular even on Wall Street that CNBC reports PE's are supporting Dems hoping for a blue wave because even though they've said they would raise taxes, the Democrats would get a stimulus done as well as a better tariff strategy and an infrastructure deal."

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/11/private-equity-firms-heavily-investing
 
more and more reports of trump's mounting fear of being prosecuted if he loses the election:

https://www.salon.com/2020/11/02/pr...-prosecution-if-he-loses-the-election-report/

I can't remember who it was, but it was a former trump 'adviser'....he was saying he thinks if trump loses he'll resign from the office in late December or earlt January. That way, Pence can pardon him for any potential federal crimes. There would be an important added bonus for trump too, in that he wouldn't have to endure transition photo-ops with Biden or have to stand on the stage during Biden's inauguration.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
Both sides are almost certain their side will win in a landslide. Confirmation bias of the highest level.

I have no fucking clue. Shit is fucked up either way.
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maybe you should use the gauge of how trump's side has predicted the path of Covid. Could be their election predictions are of the same quality
 
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