Politics Ukraine / Russia (3 Viewers)

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Long but very thorough and fair military assessment by Romanian blogger
@RaduHossu

Night Summary (14.12.2023 03:55 RO/UA time): You might want to read this head to toe: 1. Situation on the frontline: 1.1 #Kupyansk axis: the Russians, started this offensive about 3 months ago, and the gains are absolutely insignificant (on the order of a few hundred meters), but the recorded and photo/video/satellite documented losses are at an overwhelming ratio in favor of the Ukrainians - 1:3 (one Ukrainian armored vehicle lost/damaged/abandoned compared to three Russian ones) according to some sources or even 1:5 according to others. 1.2 #Bakhmut: In this sector the AFU, unfortunately, has at least a temporary loss of initiative, in the #Klischiivka and #Andriivka area the Russians managed territorial advances. Even if these are not significant, they are a likely indicator of lack of ammunition, fatigue of AFU troops, or maybe an indicator of tactical withdrawal into defensible areas through fortified lines. 1.3 Avdiivka: In this sector, 2 months and exactly one week after the Russians initiated the almost army corps offensive, the AFU managed to stabilize the front, with the Russians losing the initiative. What is noteworthy here is that the Russians have the highest casualties in the entire war. Forget Vuhledar, forget Bakhmut. Avdiivka will go down in history, even if the Russians capture it, even if the AFU holds out, as the battle after WWII in which the Russians lost the most military equipment and men. Open #OSINT sources that voluntarily identify equipment losses on both sides give Russian losses in the Avdiivka sector alone as between 200 armored vehicles lost by the Russians (some sources) and 400 armored vehicles, and on some days the loss ratio was as high as 1:7 in favor of Ukraine. And consider that these figures do not consider all Russian losses, because not all of them were filmed/photographed or published by the AFU. 1.4 #Horlivka: The AFU continues to advance to the city gates, harassing the Russian Army and DNR militias. 1.5 #Herson-#Krynky: 300 Ukrainians vs 12,000 Russians (estimated) and AFU continues to hold multiple bridgeheads across the Dnieper, using artillery on the west bank, but also using FPV drones. ERATUS: In the last Night Summary I reported the fall of Marinka as almost certain. I assume this error and regret the misinformation. Marinka is still not under full Russian occupation, even if the settlement itself is no longer considered to exist. 2. #Russian losses since the beginning of the Avdiivka offensive: 2.1 To give you an idea, taking the official estimates of the Ukrainian MoD (just as an indicator, keep in mind that each side tends to exaggerate their opponent's losses, but the Ukrainian MoD was always pretty close to international estimates), between 6 October and 13 December, the Russian Army lost: - 60,410 men (killed, wounded, captured) - 905 tanks - 1512 armored vehicles (Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Armored Personnel Carriers, Armored Fighting Vehicles) - 1410 artillery pieces (Self-Propelled Artillery, Trailed Artillery, MSLR) A large part of these losses, I estimate at least 30% of the total Russian losses on the front are in that small #Avdiivka sector alone. 2.2 A Western intelligence report estimates that over 87% of active Russian pre-invasion army soldiers were lost, wounded, or captured and two-thirds of the number of active pre-invasion tanks have been lost by Russia so far. 3. International Aid: - The US yesterday announced a new $200 million military aid package consisting of ammunition for #HIMARS, #HARM missiles, #AIM-9M anti-aircraft missiles, 155 and 105mm artillery ammunition. Unfortunately, the $60 billion aid for 2024 that could tip the balance drastically in Ukraine's favor is still in the midst of the political battle in the US Congress; - Finland is increasing production of artillery shells for Ukraine, but also for domestic defense; - #Norway donates another NASAMS air defense system in a €1.8 billion package to be delivered by the end of 2023; - #Denmark announces a new €1 billion military package for Ukraine to be unveiled today; - The #European#Union has released the €10 billion for Hungary, which Viktor Orban used to blackmail the European Union and block €54 billion in financial aid to Ukraine. A vote will be taken today on granting this financial aid; ---- On the basis of points 1.3, 1.5, 2.1, and 2.2 I personally think it is absolutely obvious to everyone that Ukraine is achieving wonders on the front. These miracles, however, cannot be sustained with prayers, empty optimism and only with the absolutely incredible courage of the Ukrainian military. Based on these points that I have mentioned, which are from various sources, from official sources to sources documenting every loss based on evidence-based on images, to sources inside Western intelligence services, it seems to me that it is unacceptable for the West not to support substantial aid in 2024 for Ukraine to succeed in an offensive that is as serious as possible. Considering also that most of the Western equipment is operational, a considerable surplus in their numbers, coupled with the necessary ammunition, the addition of capabilities in the area of electronic warfare, and support for increased production of drones of all types, along with F-16s, could lead to a major step towards victory for Ukraine. Ukraine's victory is not just a victory of the victim against the aggressor, it is a victory of Western values against Russian tyranny, it is a victory of democracy against dictatorship, it is a victory of reason against a terrorist regime led by a war criminal. The alternative will affect us all, whether we want it or not. Whether we are on the border with Ukraine (like Romania, Moldova, Poland, or Slovakia) or in France, Germany, or Italy, and certainly whether we are in the US, Taiwan, or South East Asia. The "Northern Alliance" (not to be confused with Afghanistan) - as I've called the action of Finland, Sweden (which has delivered superb Archer self-propelled howitzers), Finland, Norway, and Iceland has raised the bar in the last 24 hours. This is an extremely positive signal, obliging the major European powers, but above all the United States of America, to show that they are not only discursively, but also factually for Ukraine's victory, not just for its survival by delivering arms, financial, and humanitarian aid in bits and pieces. That only leads to the protraction of the war, the death of even more innocent Ukrainians, and the reward of the state-declared sponsor of terrorism: the Russian Federation. Glory to the heroes! Glory to you! Glory to #Romania!
 
Even after a massive surprise attack, in two years here is how little territory the world's "second strongest army" has been able to take and hold. the area circled in blue.
410788108_326853310280556_4194350762466430797_n.jpg
 
What bothers (angers) me the most is that USA has 5000 Bradley fighting vehicles, 30.000 Humvees and 1000 ATACM long range rockets in storage, already declared obsolete and waiting to be scrapped. Biden can ship any or all of this to Ukraine without congressional approval, They have previously approved disposal by pentagon of all surplus equipment.
Meanwhile in Ukraine, they need to crowdfund just to buy used pickups and SUVs to transport troops.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
I know that all lovers of the rule of law in the world and lovers of Ukraine may be feeling a little down right now. So here is a good piece on why russia is losing the war.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1692840667838374343
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Good report. The Russian strategy to control the battlefield was to overwhelm Ukraine with massive artillery barrages. Ukraine has taken away the Russians strength and made it their own. Well done.

A little more to the artillery angle. North Korea has sent a large number of artillery shells to Russia. However, early reports claim the quality of the shells is so bad, not only is their accuracy very poor, some shells have damaged and destroyed the barrels.
 
Republicans joined with Putin against Ukraine, blocking aid unless Biden adopts their most extreme anti immigration policies.
 
crandc said:
Republicans joined with Putin against Ukraine, blocking aid unless Biden adopts their most extreme anti immigration policies.
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Amazing how people manage to equate those two ideas. Not funding a foreign war = joining Putin. This is straight up 2003 Iraq war propaganda. It’s just crazy to see it coming from the liberal left. The media can get people to lockstep into literally anything, including right off a cliff.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
Even after a massive surprise attack, in two years here is how little territory the world's "second strongest army" has been able to take and hold. the area circled in blue.
410788108_326853310280556_4194350762466430797_n.jpg
Click to expand...

When did Russia ever say they wanted to take over the whole country? They said they wanted to over-throw the regime yes, but only to liberate the eastern part which is politically and culturaly Russian. Which is exactly what they did. Are you still not understanding that the counter-offensive has failed and Ukraine's military is basically destroyed? Ukraine is sending women and old men to the front now to die in a lost cause.

The deaths of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been in vain. They were sacrrified on the alter of the hubris of the West and the Ukrainian regime, who has been bombing it's own people for years since the western backed coup.

How are you all going to react when Ukraine officially surrenders? Will finally realize you've been the victims of propaganda?
 
jonnyboy said:
Amazing how people manage to equate those two ideas. Not funding a foreign war = joining Putin. This is straight up 2003 Iraq war propaganda. It’s just crazy to see it coming from the liberal left. The media can get people to lockstep into literally anything, including right off a cliff.
Click to expand...
I was with the liberal left until they went retarded.
 
beast crnjo said:
When did Russia ever say they wanted to take over the whole country? They said they wanted to over-throw the regime yes, but only to liberate the eastern part which is politically and culturaly Russian. Which is exactly what they did. Are you still not understanding that the counter-offensive has failed and Ukraine's military is basically destroyed? Ukraine is sending women and old men to the front now to die in a lost cause.

The deaths of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been in vain. They were sacrrified on the alter of the hubris of the West and the Ukrainian regime, who has been bombing it's own people for years since the western backed coup.

How are you all going to react when Ukraine officially surrenders? Will finally realize you've been the victims of propaganda?
Click to expand...
Dah Comrade! :koolaid: Drink the Red Koolaid. Yummy.
 
jonnyboy said:
Amazing how people manage to equate those two ideas. Not funding a foreign war = joining Putin. This is straight up 2003 Iraq war propaganda. It’s just crazy to see it coming from the liberal left. The media can get people to lockstep into literally anything, including right off a cliff.
Click to expand...
I think you misspelled 1990.
 
beast crnjo said:
When did Russia ever say they wanted to take over the whole country? They said they wanted to over-throw the regime yes, but only to liberate the eastern part which is politically and culturaly Russian. Which is exactly what they did. Are you still not understanding that the counter-offensive has failed and Ukraine's military is basically destroyed? Ukraine is sending women and old men to the front now to die in a lost cause.

The deaths of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been in vain. They were sacrrified on the alter of the hubris of the West and the Ukrainian regime, who has been bombing it's own people for years since the western backed coup.

How are you all going to react when Ukraine officially surrenders? Will finally realize you've been the victims of propaganda?
Click to expand...
I could respond to these fantasies with facts but I don't think you are really interested in facts.
 
beast crnjo said:
How are you all going to react when Ukraine officially surrenders? Will finally realize you've been the victims of propaganda?
Click to expand...
They will be as quiet as they currently are when you bring up the fact the US blew up the Nordstream pipeline lol.
No matter what happens, it will be twisted into a ‘win’ under some extremely loose and/or blatantly false justifications like “we stopped Putin from taking over the entire world” etc., etc. It’s another conflict full of lies, deception, payouts and bad actors straight from the playbook. They’ll dust off their hands, pat themselves of the back and Ukraine won’t be mentioned again for years. The flag emoji crowd will all forget where it is again, if they ever even took the time to learn that in the first place.
There will be tensions with another country (Iran is my guess) with another leader we’re told is a comic book villain and everyone will jump right on board with that and demand their taxes be taken and again laundered through military contracts and pretend it’s for a good cause while our own country continues to turn to literal dogshit around us.
 
jonnyboy said:
Plug in whichever conflict you’d like, the basic facts always remain.
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Aggressive authoritarian regime invading peaceful neighbor and US needs to assist in the defense of the peaceful neighbor.

No, pretty sure Desert Storm and Ukraine are different.
 
Phatguysrule said:
Aggressive authoritarian regime invading peaceful neighbor and US needs to assist in the defense of the peaceful neighbor.

No, pretty sure Desert Storm and Ukraine are different.
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Kuwait?
The narrative you just lined out is basically the exact one used in 1990, ironically.
“This aggression will not stand”
 
jonnyboy said:
Kuwait?
The narrative you just lined out is basically the exact one used in 1990, ironically.
“This aggression will not stand”
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Yes. A country invading a peaceful neighbor should not be allowed.

Did Iraq invade Kuwait? Yes.

Did Russia invade Ukraine? Yes.

Did the US support the defense of both invaded countries? Yes.

Unless you can refute those facts my point is pretty clear. No propaganda can change that.
 
jonnyboy said:
They will be as quiet as they currently are when you bring up the fact the US blew up the Nordstream pipeline lol.
No matter what happens, it will be twisted into a ‘win’ under some extremely loose and/or blatantly false justifications like “we stopped Putin from taking over the entire world” etc., etc. It’s another conflict full of lies, deception, payouts and bad actors straight from the playbook. They’ll dust off their hands, pat themselves of the back and Ukraine won’t be mentioned again for years. The flag emoji crowd will all forget where it is again, if they ever even took the time to learn that in the first place.
There will be tensions with another country (Iran is my guess) with another leader we’re told is a comic book villain and everyone will jump right on board with that and demand their taxes be taken and again laundered through military contracts and pretend it’s for a good cause while our own country continues to turn to literal dogshit around us.
Click to expand...

I'm a little puzzled by the idea that wars are forgotten. What wars are in that category?

I'm also a little puzzled by the idea that all wars are successfully spun as 'wins'. Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq... few people think we 'won' those - and we were directly fighting them.
The supposed motivation to claim a win in a war where we aren't even involved in the combat seems unclear to me.

Are there any wars in human history that you think were worth fighting? If so, which ones and why?

Edit: one more point - Unless you have very well-placed sources, you don't actually know that the US blew up the pipeline. So describing that as a fact is not justified. That said, it is certainly possible that the US did it, or (somewhat more likely) assisted in the planning. But so what? Aside from the environmental damage, which was significant, I don't have a problem with it, no matter who did it.

barfo
 
jonnyboy said:
They will be as quiet as they currently are when you bring up the fact the US blew up the Nordstream pipeline lol.
No matter what happens, it will be twisted into a ‘win’ under some extremely loose and/or blatantly false justifications like “we stopped Putin from taking over the entire world” etc., etc. It’s another conflict full of lies, deception, payouts and bad actors straight from the playbook. They’ll dust off their hands, pat themselves of the back and Ukraine won’t be mentioned again for years. The flag emoji crowd will all forget where it is again, if they ever even took the time to learn that in the first place.
There will be tensions with another country (Iran is my guess) with another leader we’re told is a comic book villain and everyone will jump right on board with that and demand their taxes be taken and again laundered through military contracts and pretend it’s for a good cause while our own country continues to turn to literal dogshit around us.
Click to expand...

And now Germany has to buy more natural gas from the US at a higher rate. I think there was also a strategic element, of not wanting Germany to pressure for an end to the conflict as to get the gas turned back on. As Keanu Reeves said in the movie Speed "Shoot the hostage, take them out of the equation."

And yes, it's clear that there is a certain segment of the population that will always support "the latest thing", without critical thought.
 
This BBC report does a fair job of sorting through propaganda. They admit to not having the complete truth, but have used verifiable info to tell an interesting story about how things are going in the war, especially for the Russian soldiers.

Worth watching, if you have the time.

 
This is sad and funny.

Putin gave a speach full of propaganda, again. His plan is to make Russia totally self sufficient, probably due to the sanctions.

One of Putins goals is to build 1,000 passenger aircraft in the next 6 years. So far for the entire year of 2023, Russia has built 2.
 


Fringe alt-right outlet The New York Times reports Ukraine now snatching people off the streets, including the mentally handicapped, and forcing them to conscript. The equality to go fight and die in Ukraine isn’t just for women and old people anymore, the mentally handicapped have earned their stripes. What a good thing. Maybe they can get children on board next? I hope my tax dollars pay for it.
 
jonnyboy said:
Fringe alt-right outlet The New York Times reports Ukraine now snatching people off the streets, including the mentally handicapped, and forcing them to conscript. The equality to go fight and die in Ukraine isn’t just for women and old people anymore, the mentally handicapped have earned their stripes. What a good thing. Maybe they can get children on board next? I hope my tax dollars pay for it.
Click to expand...

Episode 7. In this episode, jonnyboy discovers to his horror that life during wartime is not at all pleasant. He wonders why they just don't stop the war and make everything nice again? He befriends a stray dog and finds a pack of cigarettes in the woods, but is still feeling unsettled as the credits roll.

barfo
 
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