Exclusive War with Iran starting this week? (4 Viewers)

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Handjob Beast.

Stren only wishes he had six fingers for his world famous reach-arounds…

 

[BigGameDamian]

 

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Five reasons oil prices won't snap back from Iran war​

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/12/oil-prices-iran-trump-war-energy-trends-00823417

 

[SlyPokerDog]

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[crandc]

I thought it was totally obliterated a year ago?

 

[2Fluffy4U]

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Here is an analysis I read recommend reading for potential 'bigger picture' view..
Nightly Drama at Kharg Island. What does Trump want to achieve from this super-strategic strike?


Iran has a maximum oil production capacity of approximately 4 million barrels per day, but due to sanctions it is only permitted to export around 1.5 million barrels per day. About 90% of this export goes to China, which exploits Iran's complete dependence on it and enjoys a very significant discount.


It can be estimated that due to the sanctions and the discount to the Chinese, Iran's daily income from oil sales ranges between $75 and $90 million per day — only about a quarter of its full revenue potential. After deducting production costs, the Ayatollahs are left with approximately $50 to $65 million per day, and at an annual level, about $22 billion. Sounds like a lot? Well, it's nothing and zero for an economy of 90 million people. For comparison, Israel, with one tenth of Iran's population, spends a similar sum every year just on its healthcare system.


The oil to China is exported via tankers loaded at the Kharg Island terminal and passes through the Strait of Hormuz on its way eastward. Hence, this meager remainder of Iran's oil revenues is entirely dependent on the normal functioning of this island. From the Chinese perspective, this represents about 13% of their oil consumption — a very serious matter.


Last night's strike did not damage this export channel by even a hair. The Iranians can still send tankers to China this morning. But unlike yesterday, the island now stands completely exposed to an American takeover that could stop everything within an hour. Combined with the American takeover of Venezuelan oil — which accounts for about 10% of Chinese oil consumption — Trump holds Xi Jinping by the throat, with the ability to order an energy stranglehold on China with the flick of a finger, like an emperor deciding the fate of a gladiator. If China were to think for even a moment about interfering with the US in a war or carrying out its threats against Taiwan, Trump has the power to cut off 25% of China's oil consumption. That's how you say "watch yourself" in English with a Texan accent.


The Iranians tried to create a threat equation against Gulf oil by firing missiles at the energy facilities of Gulf states. The thorough elimination of Iran's missile and drone array has largely neutralized this threat. Now, the equation that emerges is entirely different.


Trump has created a "Mexican standoff" against China and Iran. Iran points weapons at Gulf oil production and shipping? No problem. Now there is a parallel American threat — except with a clear asymmetry: China would be devastated by mutual destruction. The US is perfectly fine with its own oil. A massive price spike? China would suffer many times more. Trump believes that American military power will be capable of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open even if there is a partial temporary closure. If the Iranians continue to use force, everything except Iranian-Chinese oil will pass through the strait.


The control that the US is gaining over the critical energy artery of the Persian Gulf is a dramatic asset at the "big table." The US will remain there for many, many years. It will remain there by force as long as the Ayatollah regime survives, and will remain there comfortably, at Iran's invitation, if and when the regime is replaced. Trump literally lured the Iranian stupidity — expressed in the violent moves in the Strait of Hormuz — and received a golden excuse to take over the whole operation there.


By this morning, in my assessment, the phone call from Beijing to the Supreme Leader's office of Mojtaba had already taken place. They will demand that any Iranian strike on Gulf states' oil production facilities, or interference with shipping through the strait, be taken off the table. I am convinced that the "watch yourself" in Chinese will be understood even by a cardboard character...


Presented as a service to those who still believe that Trump was dragged into a war by Israel.

 

[crandc]

Stop giving Trump credit as strategic thinker. He is no more strategic thinker than he is humanitarian.

 

[2Fluffy4U]

Stop giving Trump credit as strategic thinker. He is no more strategic thinker than he is humanitarian.

I think he has those around him.. as long as they show him U.S $ is feasible down the road - all he needs to do is say ok.