BLAZINGGIANTS
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2008
- Messages
- 22,137
- Likes
- 14,768
- Points
- 113
Stren only wishes he had six fingers for his world famous reach-arounds…
Exclusive War with Iran starting this week? (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Rastapopoulos
- Start date
Welcome to our community
Be a part of something great, join today!
BigGameDamian
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Oct 19, 2012
- Messages
- 34,905
- Likes
- 14,278
- Points
- 113
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2008
- Messages
- 129,587
- Likes
- 150,059
- Points
- 115
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2008
- Messages
- 129,587
- Likes
- 150,059
- Points
- 115
Here is an analysis I read recommend reading for potential 'bigger picture' view..
Nightly Drama at Kharg Island. What does Trump want to achieve from this super-strategic strike?
Iran has a maximum oil production capacity of approximately 4 million barrels per day, but due to sanctions it is only permitted to export around 1.5 million barrels per day. About 90% of this export goes to China, which exploits Iran's complete dependence on it and enjoys a very significant discount.
It can be estimated that due to the sanctions and the discount to the Chinese, Iran's daily income from oil sales ranges between $75 and $90 million per day — only about a quarter of its full revenue potential. After deducting production costs, the Ayatollahs are left with approximately $50 to $65 million per day, and at an annual level, about $22 billion. Sounds like a lot? Well, it's nothing and zero for an economy of 90 million people. For comparison, Israel, with one tenth of Iran's population, spends a similar sum every year just on its healthcare system.
The oil to China is exported via tankers loaded at the Kharg Island terminal and passes through the Strait of Hormuz on its way eastward. Hence, this meager remainder of Iran's oil revenues is entirely dependent on the normal functioning of this island. From the Chinese perspective, this represents about 13% of their oil consumption — a very serious matter.
Last night's strike did not damage this export channel by even a hair. The Iranians can still send tankers to China this morning. But unlike yesterday, the island now stands completely exposed to an American takeover that could stop everything within an hour. Combined with the American takeover of Venezuelan oil — which accounts for about 10% of Chinese oil consumption — Trump holds Xi Jinping by the throat, with the ability to order an energy stranglehold on China with the flick of a finger, like an emperor deciding the fate of a gladiator. If China were to think for even a moment about interfering with the US in a war or carrying out its threats against Taiwan, Trump has the power to cut off 25% of China's oil consumption. That's how you say "watch yourself" in English with a Texan accent.
The Iranians tried to create a threat equation against Gulf oil by firing missiles at the energy facilities of Gulf states. The thorough elimination of Iran's missile and drone array has largely neutralized this threat. Now, the equation that emerges is entirely different.
Trump has created a "Mexican standoff" against China and Iran. Iran points weapons at Gulf oil production and shipping? No problem. Now there is a parallel American threat — except with a clear asymmetry: China would be devastated by mutual destruction. The US is perfectly fine with its own oil. A massive price spike? China would suffer many times more. Trump believes that American military power will be capable of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open even if there is a partial temporary closure. If the Iranians continue to use force, everything except Iranian-Chinese oil will pass through the strait.
The control that the US is gaining over the critical energy artery of the Persian Gulf is a dramatic asset at the "big table." The US will remain there for many, many years. It will remain there by force as long as the Ayatollah regime survives, and will remain there comfortably, at Iran's invitation, if and when the regime is replaced. Trump literally lured the Iranian stupidity — expressed in the violent moves in the Strait of Hormuz — and received a golden excuse to take over the whole operation there.
By this morning, in my assessment, the phone call from Beijing to the Supreme Leader's office of Mojtaba had already taken place. They will demand that any Iranian strike on Gulf states' oil production facilities, or interference with shipping through the strait, be taken off the table. I am convinced that the "watch yourself" in Chinese will be understood even by a cardboard character...
Presented as a service to those who still believe that Trump was dragged into a war by Israel.
I think he has those around him.. as long as they show him U.S $ is feasible down the road - all he needs to do is say ok.
crandc
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2008
- Messages
- 24,788
- Likes
- 32,011
- Points
- 113
Trump invaded Iran with no clear reason, no clear goals, no strategy for achieving goals, no plan for day after. Early in his administration military leadership and intelligence were purged of most experienced personnel. His cabinet are television personalities. Every person with expertise on politics, history, economics, military strategy are seeing disaster.
Some say Netanyahu talked Trump into war. Maybe. Maybe he thought it would be easy, drop some bombs, kill some people, hold big victory parade. They were unprepared for Iranian response. Like Putin in Ukraine, he thought march in with superior military power. Easy.
Now he says war will end when his bones say so. Yes, he can just declare victory, his cult will nod and right wing media cheer. But this isn't kike tariffs he could turn on and off by whim until Supreme Court said no. He might declare victory and leave but Iran could say they aren't done. Israel isn't done. Gulf states aren't done.
No one knows when or how this will end. World war begun on stupidity.
Some say Netanyahu talked Trump into war. Maybe. Maybe he thought it would be easy, drop some bombs, kill some people, hold big victory parade. They were unprepared for Iranian response. Like Putin in Ukraine, he thought march in with superior military power. Easy.
Now he says war will end when his bones say so. Yes, he can just declare victory, his cult will nod and right wing media cheer. But this isn't kike tariffs he could turn on and off by whim until Supreme Court said no. He might declare victory and leave but Iran could say they aren't done. Israel isn't done. Gulf states aren't done.
No one knows when or how this will end. World war begun on stupidity.
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2008
- Messages
- 129,587
- Likes
- 150,059
- Points
- 115
Staying informed means working from documented facts, not media framing, so I would like to share what the record shows if we dive in it.
The strikes did not come without reason or stated goals. Beginning April 2025, the US and Iran held six rounds of indirect nuclear negotiations mediated by Oman. The day before strikes began, Iran formally rejected a US offer of a civilian nuclear program with American investment in exchange for dismantling its nuclear program. By May 2025, the IAEA confirmed Iran held a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity, a level with no civilian justification and a short technical step from weapons-grade 90%. The IAEA declared it the only non-nuclear-weapon state in the world operating at that level. The US Defense Intelligence Agency assessed Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb in under a week.
On stated goals: they were publicly articulated and went well beyond "drop some bombs." The US stated the operation aimed to degrade Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, navy, drone capacity, and proxy network. On the day-after plan, both Trump and Netanyahu explicitly stated the strikes were designed to empower Iran's population to take control of their government. Netanyahu stated the operations would "create conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands." That is a documented regime-change framework, not an absence of strategy. In January 2026, Iranian security forces had killed thousands of protesters in the largest unrest since the Islamic Revolution, and the regime's legitimacy was already severely weakened before a single bomb was dropped.
On Iran's strikes against Gulf states, the framing of those as proof the war is "spreading" misses the point entirely. Iran's strategy was a deliberate pressure tactic to raise costs for the region and force Gulf states to push the US toward a ceasefire. It has backfired badly. Qatar issued its strongest condemnation in its history. Saudi Arabia raised military readiness to full alert and Crown Prince MBS authorized retaliation, describing the strikes as cowardly. The Washington Institute assessed Iran's plan was clearly backfiring. These are not the reactions of a region being pulled into a war it opposes. They are the reactions of neighbors who feel betrayed by Iran.
A legitimate gap worth acknowledging is the documented criticism, including from members of Congress after classified briefings, about the absence of a verified plan for Iran's enriched uranium stockpile post-strikes. That is a real operational question. But it is a very different claim from "no reason, no goals, no strategy," which the documented record simply does not support.
Disagreeing with the policy is entirely reasonable. But staying genuinely informed means the timeline, the nuclear record, the stated objectives, and Iran's own strategic failures all have to be part of the picture.
SharpeScooterShooter
SharpeShooter
- Joined
- May 23, 2022
- Messages
- 7,517
- Likes
- 6,142
- Points
- 113
US offered "free nuclear fuel forever," which Tehran rejected because it insisted on retaining enrichment rights. This proposition I believe was intended to understand if any agreement can be reached.
Lets say you want to buy the blazers team, and you offer the owner more money than they asked for, but the offer is refused, it is safe to uderstand the owner just doesnt really want to sell. No need for further negotiations. Thats how I see it.. the offered something way out of line and a no means we are just messing around with you to buy time untill the US next election comes..
Lets say you want to buy the blazers team, and you offer the owner more money than they asked for, but the offer is refused, it is safe to uderstand the owner just doesnt really want to sell. No need for further negotiations. Thats how I see it.. the offered something way out of line and a no means we are just messing around with you to buy time untill the US next election comes..
Similar threads
