What to expect from Meyers Leonard this season

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Leonard need to retool his shooting motion to become a really dangerous weapon. Currently, he has a slow release (I compared it in another thread to Danny Ferry's set shot style), which means he can't go around a screen and come out the other side firing and he's not "open" if his man is just a step or two off him--his release is slow enough that that defender can recover and force him to pull it back down. Right now, he's a great shooter when he's absolutely wide open. That has value, as a sniper who benefits from pick-and-roll chaos elsewhere on the court leaving him unaccounted for, but it limits his ceiling. If he can speed up his release, he can become a much more important player, a guy you can actually run sets for.

I don't think his release hurt him. He just had EXTREMELY good shot selection last year.



1:44

http://on.nba.com/1Ni1n3V

The last shot here.

He can shoot contested shots, he just chooses not to.
 
I think Leonard will be on mop-up duty. Now that he traded away the coach he credits most for his development.......... he will crumble before he could show us his true ability.
 
He can shoot contested shots, he just chooses not to.

It's not really a question of "contested," it's a question of how open he has to be in order not to be contested. The quicker one's release is, the less space he needs between him and his defender to get the shot off before a contest. There were times when his defender had floated a few steps away from him and a non-cross-court pass got to Leonard and he began to tee his shot up, only to get closed out on and he pulled it down. I agree, that's wise, but with a quicker release, he could have gotten some/many of those off before the close-out reached him.

45% three-point shooting in a few, very carefully chosen looks is valuable. 40% three-point shooting in significantly more looks is even more valuable.
 
MM, regarding "his efficiency will plummet"

care to hazard an estimate?
 
I ran some more stats after reading your post, all from 2014-15, to get a feel for him in different situations:

93 FGM when he gets 5 or more FGA per game (25 games)
182 FGA when he gets 5 or more FGA per game (25 games)

FG% - 51.1% / 9.28PPG / 22.2MPG (12.5PPG @ 30MPG; 15PPG @ 36MPG)

65 FGM when he gets 20+ minutes per game (15 games)
126 FGA when he gets 20+ minutes per game (15 games)

FG% - 51.6% / 11.2PPG / 26.0MPG (12.9PPG @ 30MPG; 15.5PPG @ 36MPG)

32 3PM when he has 3 or more 3PA per game (20 games)
79 3PA when he has 3 or more 3PA per game (20 games)

3P% - 40.5% / 9.95PPG / 21.5MPG (13.9PPG @ 30MPG; 16.7PPG @ 36MPG)

Despite the ~10PPG averages, what I like about these stats is that they are consistent with his overall averages percentage-wise. He does a bit better when he plays more minutes, instead of wilting under extended minutes. Leonard isn't a burst player, which is good for a starter. (We can't all be Gerald Wallace!)

I think I might revise my initial estimates down a bit; 13-16 PPG seems like a reasonable range for the playing time he'll get. And that's okay by me. His percentages are good because he's the king of shot selection; I don't think defenses scheming for him will reduce those, because if he's not open, he won't force up a bad shot. He'll shoot fewer shots per minute, but he won't shoot bad shots. But a lower shot-per-minute rate will depress his points per game, even while his offensive efficiency stays high.

Of course, this assumes no new offensive weapons, no new skills, no new plays run for him, etc. All of these I expect to see in the next two years, and all of these will pump those number up a bit.

Okay Mason's performance...

Mason played a lot last season, so let's talk about his numbers when he plays 30 minutes or more:
In 18 games: 107/163 (65.6%FG), averaging 15.1/9.9 in 34MPG. He was 5.9 for 9.0 from the field.

Those are some burly numbers!

How is he when he's a focus of the offense? When he gets 8 or more shots (28 games):
167/277 (60.3%FG), averaging 14.5/8.8 in 28MPG. He was 6.0/9.9 from the field.

In short? I'm really REALLY pleased with these numbers.

DUDE!!! You are the man Caravan!!!!
Thank you much!!!

See!!!???? Im telling you guys are gonna be surprised by this team. This is far from a tanking, cellar dweller in the West, team. If we stay healthy and learn some team D and some good outside in ball with Dame and Connaughton and the bigs, and have CJ and Leonard and Davis come off the bench, I think we will be a dark horse for an 8th spot.

You know who has the most pressure now? Stotts. The ball is now in his hands to figure these guys out and teach them how to play together and win, both on offense and D.


I want to say one other thing to give everyone props here. I did no research or anything on Plumlee... outside of what other members posted. I only watched posted videos and read the quotes and articles about him and could see the potential. This guy is currently VERY underrated based on what I have read and seen.
 
Thanks!

One thing is this: we will need - NEED - to be healthy to have a shot at the playoffs. If we are healthy, we're Phoenix level "knocking on the door" and playing exciting ball. I'm excited for the changes that are happening.
 
It's not really a question of "contested," it's a question of how open he has to be in order not to be contested. The quicker one's release is, the less space he needs between him and his defender to get the shot off before a contest. There were times when his defender had floated a few steps away from him and a non-cross-court pass got to Leonard and he began to tee his shot up, only to get closed out on and he pulled it down. I agree, that's wise, but with a quicker release, he could have gotten some/many of those off before the close-out reached him.

45% three-point shooting in a few, very carefully chosen looks is valuable. 40% three-point shooting in significantly more looks is even more valuable.

Fluid mechanics are different for everyone and a so a quick release might work for some, but not others. I don't see Meyers getting too much quicker without his % dropping, which is fine with me, He isnt going to be a first second third option, he is going to be the guy spotting up, getting the pass, fake pumping his opponent and driving to the hoop for a slam, or dishing to Plumlee as his defensive man rotates.

Ive also watched the recent video on Meyers, He has Dame type work ethic for sure. Not sure about the drive, but I wounldt doubt that either. Meyers is going to come out a beast I think and watch for more pump fake and drives.

Sooo Excited!
 
Last year at this time many on this board thought Meyers was a total flop and not worth ever seeing in a Blazer uniform again. I still liked his potential, but most thought he was pathetic.

Well, a year later and I think this board overall has pretty high hopes for Meyers. 42% from 3, and a 93% clip from the stipe. And although his defense is still sub par, it's really getting drastically better, he holds ground and is even finally boxing out.

Well, he volunteered to come to summer league, perhaps to play or maybe just practice, but he wanted to play with all the young blood and work on his game. We all know a month ago he was already working in the gym with excoach Kim to improve, which is great for his continued development.

So, a few questions. Is he going to play at pf or popularize the stretch C position? What parts of his game do you think he is working on, what should he work on? Will he be a starter this season? What type of production do you see from Meyers.




Personally, I see him starting but not sure if it will be alongside Plumblee or Davis. I'm thinking he would be best at stretch 4 next to Plumblee where Plum could defend around the basket and Meyers wouldn't be so vulnerable. On offense, plumb is a 5 feet and in player, so the two wouldn't crowd each other. Also, Meyers could stretch the floor for Lillard, which is going to be desperately needed. With the loss of 4 starters, I expect a real breakout year for Meyers, averaging 30mpg, and a double double of 18 and 10.

I thought Meyers Leonard was a lost cause for a long time. I am willing to change my opine if he comes out ready to kick ass and make opposing players (especially LaMarcus) look foolish!
 
He's got the tools to be pretty damn awesome. I think it'll all come together next year. I expect beastmode from Meyers.
 
From Day 1 I've touted Meyers as a very special, very skillful player. The entire league is about to get a wake-up call.

I expect he will eventually bump Aldridge from Allstar contention, Spurs uni or not.

Love live THE Meyers Legend.
 
It's not as if Meyers is 30 and has peaked already..he just started shaving..I expect him to become better than Blake Griffin
 
well if his nickname is Meyers Legend and Baby Sabonis then i expect 20 points on 50/40/90 shooting and 12 rebounds, 10 assists, 3 blocks including a block heard 'round the world on LMA in the western playoff final to help blazers to go to final, 4 steals including a steal and shoot 3's to win the championship. so really i am expecting 20points/10rebounds/10assists/3blocks/4steals. his offense will forever be considered as golden standard and his defense will be talks as the greatest defensive player to ever play the game. he will win the MVP, MIP, DPOY, ALL-STAR MVP, FINALS MVP, AND SOMEHOW WINS COY
 
From Day 1 I've touted Meyers as a very special, very skillful player. The entire league is about to get a wake-up call.

I expect he will eventually bump Aldridge from Allstar contention, Spurs uni or not.
I will vow for Maris. The dudes been riding Leonard's jock like a speedo since we drafted him
 

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