What Will the Blazers Record be by the All-Star Game?

[PtldPlatypus]

Detroilet, Charlotte, and Utah are winnable.

Yes, winnable, but I would imagine the Blazers would be underdogs in all of those. For every winnable game in which they are underdogs, there's a loseable game in which they're favorites.

I'd love 13-6, but I'm not seeing it.

 

[Denny Crane]

Yes, winnable, but I would imagine the Blazers would be underdogs in all of those. For every winnable game in which they are underdogs, there's a loseable game in which they're favorites.

I'd love 13-6, but I'm not seeing it.

Detoilet is 16-20. Are we underdogs?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Detoilet is 16-20. Are we underdogs?

Good call. I should probably change that one. 11-8.

 

[illmatic99]

Sidebar.

Unless we go on a tear in the next three weeks, Dame isn't making the AS team.

Fucking criminal.

 

[illmatic99]

Wed, Jan 4 @ Golden State L
Thu, Jan 5 vs Los Angeles W
Sat, Jan 7 vs Detroit W
Tue, Jan 10 @ Los Angeles W
Wed, Jan 11 vs Cleveland L
Fri, Jan 13 vs Orlando W
Mon, Jan 16 @ Washington W
Wed, Jan 18 @ Charlotte L
Fri, Jan 20 @ Philadelphia W
Sat, Jan 21 @ Boston L
Wed, Jan 25 vs Los Angeles W
Fri, Jan 27 vs Memphis W
Sun, Jan 29 vs Golden State L
Fri, Feb 3 vs Dallas W
Sun, Feb 5 @ Oklahoma City W
Tue, Feb 7 @ Dallas L
Thu, Feb 9 vs Boston L
Mon, Feb 13 vs Atlanta W
Wed, Feb 15 @ Utah L


11-8

 

[BonesJones]

Wed, Jan 4 @ Golden State L
Thu, Jan 5 vs Los Angeles W
Sat, Jan 7 vs Detroit W
Tue, Jan 10 @ Los Angeles W
Wed, Jan 11 vs Cleveland L
Fri, Jan 13 vs Orlando W
Mon, Jan 16 @ Washington W
Wed, Jan 18 @ Charlotte L
Fri, Jan 20 @ Philadelphia W
Sat, Jan 21 @ Boston L
Wed, Jan 25 vs Los Angeles W
Fri, Jan 27 vs Memphis W
Sun, Jan 29 vs Golden State L
Fri, Feb 3 vs Dallas W
Sun, Feb 5 @ Oklahoma City W
Tue, Feb 7 @ Dallas L
Thu, Feb 9 vs Boston L
Mon, Feb 13 vs Atlanta W
Wed, Feb 15 @ Utah L


11-8

Dallas is a loss?

 

[Orion Bailey]

They beat us last time.

 

[BonesJones]

They beat us last time.

We had our worst game of the year.

 

[Orion Bailey]

We had our worst game of the year.

I'll say!

 

[PDXFonz]

Not best in the west like I had predicted.

 

[BonesJones]

SO FAR:
Wed, Jan 4 @ Golden State L
Thu, Jan 5 vs Los Angeles W
Sat, Jan 7 vs Detroit L
Tue, Jan 10 @ Los Angeles W
Wed, Jan 11 vs Cleveland W
Record 18-23

Should win:
Fri, Jan 13 vs Orlando
Fri, Jan 20 @ Philadelphia
Wed, Jan 25 vs Los Angeles
Fri, Feb 3 vs Dallas
Tue, Feb 7 @ Dallas

Probable Loss:
Sat, Jan 21 @ Boston
Sun, Jan 29 vs Golden State

Record Not Factoring Toss-ups: 23-25

Toss-up:
Mon, Jan 16 @ Washington
Wed, Jan 18 @ Charlotte
Fri, Jan 27 vs Memphis
Sun, Feb 5 @ Oklahoma City
Thu, Feb 9 vs Boston
Mon, Feb 13 vs Atlanta
Wed, Feb 15 @ Utah
(We could go anywhere between 2-5 and 5-2 in these games.)

So, I assume we'll be between 25-30, and 28-27. Most likely, we end up 27-28 by the all-star break. I think we'll go 18-9 after the all-star break, which would put us on pace for 45 wins. If we could go 5-2 in those toss-up games, win the games we should, and steal one more after the all-star break and win 19, we could finish 47-35.

 

[BonesJones]

After this stretch, I predicted us to to go 27-28 by the allstar game.
Wed, Jan 4 @ Golden State L
Thu, Jan 5 vs Los Angeles W
Sat, Jan 7 vs Detroit L
Tue, Jan 10 @ Los Angeles W
Wed, Jan 11 vs Cleveland W
Record 18-23

Based on how I broke down games:
Should win:
Fri, Jan 13 vs Orlando L
Fri, Jan 20 @ Philadelphia L
Wed, Jan 25 vs Los Angeles W
Probable Loss:
Sat, Jan 21 @ Boston W
Toss-up:
Mon, Jan 16 @ Washington L
Wed, Jan 18 @ Charlotte L


Should win:
Fri, Feb 3 vs Dallas
Tue, Feb 7 @ Dallas
Probable Loss:
Sun, Jan 29 vs Golden State
Toss-up:
Fri, Jan 27 vs Memphis
Sun, Feb 5 @ Oklahoma City
Thu, Feb 9 vs Boston
Mon, Feb 13 vs Atlanta
Wed, Feb 15 @ Utah

Assuming we go 3-2 in our toss-ups, lose to Golden State, and win the games verse Dallas, we should end up 25-30 (which was at the bottom of my predictions.)
I think it's still possible that we could go 26-29 (which wouldn't be bad considering how bad we've been).

 

[Minstrel]

I don't think any of those upcoming games that you've marked as toss-ups are actually toss-ups. I think the Blazers should be underdogs in all of them. Unless you're using "Probable Loss" to mean "No chance at all," I think all of those games should be in Probable Loss. They'll win some games as the underdog, but I think all the games except against Dallas are below 50% chance to win for Portland.

 

[BonesJones]

I don't think any of those upcoming games that you've marked as toss-ups are actually toss-ups. I think the Blazers should be underdogs in all of them. Unless you're using "Probable Loss" to mean "No chance at all," I think all of those games should be in Probable Loss. They'll win some games as the underdog, but I think all the games except against Dallas are below 50% chance to win for Portland.

LMAO.

Were 4-1 against the teams that are in the section "toss-up". 3 of those games are at home.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

No Lillard, no CJ.

Now I have 2 really good reasons not to watch the All Star Game.

 

[Dougnsalem]

No Lillard, no CJ.

Now I have 2 really good reasons not to watch the All Star Game.

CJ is doing the 3 point shootout though. I'd rather he just skip it, like he said he was going to do.

You probably already knew that though, didn't you? Lol

 

[Nikolokolus]

http://www.nba.com/video/2017/01/26/20170126-inside-nba-west-all-star-reserves-analysis

 

[SlyPokerDog]

CJ is doing the 3 point shootout though. I'd rather he just skip it, like he said he was going to do.

You probably already knew that though, didn't you? Lol

That's why I said game and not weekend.

 

[Nikolokolus]

LMAO.

Were 4-1 against the teams that are in the section "toss-up". 3 of those games are at home.

Ask yourself, "What will Vegas do?" The line will be set with those teams as the favorite in almost every game. As @Minstrel said, they'll win some as an underdog, but that's not the same as saying it's a "toss-up."

 

[Minstrel]

LMAO.

Were 4-1 against the teams that are in the section "toss-up". 3 of those games are at home.

Portland is 1-1 against Cleveland--I hope no one thinks that would be a toss-up game if the two teams had another regular season game scheduled.

 

[BonesJones]

Ask yourself, "What will Vegas do?" The line will be set with those teams as the favorite in almost every game. As @Minstrel said, they'll win some as an underdog, but that's not the same as saying it's a "toss-up."

Portland's favored in the Memphis game tomorrow.

Memphis is 27-20 and we're favored at home.
Atlanta is 27-19 so considering the Memphis spread, we'll be even or favored at home.
Boston is 27-18, and considering they'll be on the 2nd night of a back to back, and considering the Memphis spread, we'll be even or favored at home.

Sorry to use your logic against you.

 

[BonesJones]

Portland is 1-1 against Cleveland--I hope no one thinks that would be a toss-up game if the two teams had another regular season game scheduled.

If you do the maths, a 5 game sample size > 2 game sample size.

 

[Minstrel]

If you do the maths, a 5 game sample size > 2 game sample size.

The maths suggest a 5 game sample size is nearly equally meaningless. Especially relative to all the combined games those teams have played that puts Portland far behind them in the standings.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

6-13

So close.

 

[BonesJones]

The maths suggest a 5 game sample size is nearly equally meaningless. Especially relative to all the combined games those teams have played that puts Portland far behind them in the standings.

Lol.

You tried to say "well because we have a .500 winning percentage against CLE in 2 games that doesnt mean we have a 50% of beating them if we played again."

However, I'm saying that because we have an .800 winning percentage in those 5 games, we have a 50% chance of beating them.

Yes, 5 games isn't enough to claim that 4-1 record is the rule, but it is enough to claim that those games are toss-ups.

 

[Minstrel]

Yes, 5 games isn't enough to claim that 4-1 record is the rule, but it is enough to claim that those games are toss-ups.

It isn't, though. A 5 game sample out of the roughly 250 games those 6 teams (including Portland) have played is far too tiny to draw any conclusions.

My point about Cleveland wasn't the literal record (.500). Even if the only game Portland had played against Cleveland was their win (1.000 winning percentage!), it still would be ridiculous to suggest that that makes the next game a toss-up. Suggesting that 5 games is a good sample size because 5 is a bigger number than 2 doesn't make sense. One sample can be larger than another and still be far too small to be meaningful.

 

[Chris Craig]

with 9 more games the Blazers have to win 6 for me to be right....

 

[BBert]

I said 25-30. That's looking pretty tough at the moment.

 

[Denny Crane]

21-27, 3 game win streak, and a win against the 27-21 Grizzlies.

Next game is the Warriors. A win will be HUGE, getting us to 5 games under .500.

Stotts' lineup adjustment, Turner and Vonleh in as starters, is paying off.

 

[BonesJones]

After this stretch, I predicted us to to go 27-28 by the allstar game.
Wed, Jan 4 @ Golden State L
Thu, Jan 5 vs Los Angeles W
Sat, Jan 7 vs Detroit L
Tue, Jan 10 @ Los Angeles W
Wed, Jan 11 vs Cleveland W
Record 18-23

Based on how I broke down games:
Should win:
Fri, Jan 13 vs Orlando L
Fri, Jan 20 @ Philadelphia L
Wed, Jan 25 vs Los Angeles W
Probable Loss:
Sat, Jan 21 @ Boston W
Toss-up:
Mon, Jan 16 @ Washington L
Wed, Jan 18 @ Charlotte L


Should win:
Fri, Feb 3 vs Dallas
Tue, Feb 7 @ Dallas
Probable Loss:
Sun, Jan 29 vs Golden State
Toss-up:
Fri, Jan 27 vs Memphis
Sun, Feb 5 @ Oklahoma City
Thu, Feb 9 vs Boston
Mon, Feb 13 vs Atlanta
Wed, Feb 15 @ Utah

Assuming we go 3-2 in our toss-ups, lose to Golden State, and win the games verse Dallas, we should end up 25-30 (which was at the bottom of my predictions.)
I think it's still possible that we could go 26-29 (which wouldn't be bad considering how bad we've been).

I forgot Charlotte.

Should win:
Fri, Jan 13 vs Orlando L
Fri, Jan 20 @ Philadelphia L
Wed, Jan 25 vs Los Angeles W
Probable Loss:
Sat, Jan 21 @ Boston W
Toss-up:
Mon, Jan 16 @ Washington L
Wed, Jan 18 @ Charlotte L
Fri, Jan 27 vs Memphis W

Should win:
Fri, Feb 3 vs Dallas
Tue, Feb 7 @ Dallas
Probable Loss:
Sun, Jan 29 vs Golden State
Toss-up:
Fri, Jan 31 vs Charlotte
Sun, Feb 5 @ Oklahoma City
Thu, Feb 9 vs Boston
Mon, Feb 13 vs Atlanta
Wed, Feb 15 @ Utah

If we somehow upset Golden State tomorrow we'll end up 26-30 or 27-29.