Which is More Significant: Finishing 3rd in the West or the Playoff Sweep?

[KingSpeed]

No, you are reading my post wrong. That's exactly what I just said....

"If the other teams around us went 5-5, but could have gone 10-0, then we would have been out of hca just like that,"

How could 3 teams have gone 10-0 and passed us?? The West teams play each other down the stretch. That would be impossible.

 

[e_blazer]

I'm still of the belief that you have to consider the match-ups when you look at these things. The Blazers had problems with New Orleans all season. They split their four regular season games, but the Blazers' wins both came against the Pelicans in games where Davis got injured. The first game he only played 5 minutes before injuring his knee. The second win came when he sprained an ankle in the third quarter. He still finished that game, scored 33 points and grabbed 14 rebounds, but you wonder if Dame's 41 points would have been enough to get the win if Davis was at full strength. Davis is just a problem for which the Blazers have no solution.

I think that the Blazers would have won a series against either the Thunder or the Jazz. They swept the Thunder in the regular season and split with the Jazz, but killed the Jazz in that last game of the season when the Jazz had everything to play for and the Blazers had nothing to lose. Would winning a series against one of those two teams have changed the narrative over getting swept by the Pelicans? Absolutely. Would it have made any material difference in the Blazers chances next season? Nope. Only perceptions would be different.

 

[KingSpeed]

I'm still of the belief that you have to consider the match-ups when you look at these things. The Blazers had problems with New Orleans all season. They split their four regular season games, but the Blazers' wins both came against the Pelicans in games where Davis got injured. The first game he only played 5 minutes before injuring his knee. The second win came when he sprained an ankle in the third quarter. He still finished that game, scored 33 points and grabbed 14 rebounds, but you wonder if Dame's 41 points would have been enough to get the win if Davis was at full strength. Davis is just a problem for which the Blazers have no solution.

I think that the Blazers would have won a series against either the Thunder or the Jazz. They swept the Thunder in the regular season and split with the Jazz, but killed the Jazz in that last game of the season when the Jazz had everything to play for and the Blazers had nothing to lose. Would winning a series against one of those two teams have changed the narrative over getting swept by the Pelicans? Absolutely. Would it have made any material difference in the Blazers chances next season? Nope. Only perceptions would be different.

I agree with this.

 

[hoopsjock]

To be honest i'm not on the "Zach Collins hype" anymore, what i saw from him on Summer League was pretty dissapointing, i expected him to be much better offensively, but his Shooting still sucks, and i know the History from our big mans the last few years. Meyers = shouldn't be on an nba court, Nurkic = was great when he came, after a Full Season he looked worse than before, Noah Vonleh = Never improved in all those years in Portland, Swanigan = doubt he will have a long Career in the NBA, to slow, undersized for a big man, can't defend guards or wings, inefficeny shooting, only nba skill is rebounding... I do not expect Collins to be a Offensive threat in the Next years, but hopefully i'm wrong and he makes a big jump

You do realize that Nurk had pretty similar stats last year compared to his "Nurk Fever" 20 games the year before right? If you look at January on his numbers were even better.

 

[Hoopguru]

Dead on, very bad match up!

 

[hoopsjock]

I'm still of the belief that you have to consider the match-ups when you look at these things. The Blazers had problems with New Orleans all season. They split their four regular season games, but the Blazers' wins both came against the Pelicans in games where Davis got injured. The first game he only played 5 minutes before injuring his knee. The second win came when he sprained an ankle in the third quarter. He still finished that game, scored 33 points and grabbed 14 rebounds, but you wonder if Dame's 41 points would have been enough to get the win if Davis was at full strength. Davis is just a problem for which the Blazers have no solution.

I think that the Blazers would have won a series against either the Thunder or the Jazz. They swept the Thunder in the regular season and split with the Jazz, but killed the Jazz in that last game of the season when the Jazz had everything to play for and the Blazers had nothing to lose. Would winning a series against one of those two teams have changed the narrative over getting swept by the Pelicans? Absolutely. Would it have made any material difference in the Blazers chances next season? Nope. Only perceptions would be different.

Well in the Blazers defense, Anthony Davis usually appears to get seriously injured in just about every game he has ever played in until the playoffs this year. I compare Davis getting hurt to Nurk getting hit in the face. They both happen ALL the time.

 

[Orion Bailey]

How could 3 teams have gone 10-0 and passed us?? The West teams play each other down the stretch. That would be impossible.

Sigh. you arent getting it.

I'll leave it at this. You have a completely unique way of seeing things.....and omitting things....

 

[PDXFonz]

72-10 is a lot of winning.

You say that now, but you would also melt the heck down watching us get swept because your expectations would be so high.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Given how tight the standings were, "3rd Seed" is not a meaningful metric.
The fact that it took an improbable 13-game winning streak to achieve knocks it from fools gold to...a rock spray-painted gold?

What about POR's 13 game winning streak made it improbable? Was is the only improbable winning streak in the NW division, or were all the other winning streaks probable? Was UTA winning 11 in a row and 19 of 21 any more or less improbable? NOP's 10 game winning streak after Boogie went down? How probable was that?

I get so tired of people poo pooing the Blazers winning streak like it didn't actually happen or they didn't deserve those wins. Every win counts in the standings, but it's almost like people would place more value on those 13 wins if there were a couple losses sprinkled in to give those wins some added credibility.

They beat some very good teams during that streak including GSW twice - once at full strength. They also broke UTA's 11 game winning streak by beating them by 19 on their home court.

BNM.

 

[riverman]

One thing I'll say about last season....New Orleans beat us...shoutout to them...they played the best ball of their season in the first round and we had Mo out and ET hobbled with shoulder problems....we were out coached and out played for 4 straight games...much respect to New Orleans for that display...unlike Laker fans...when we get beat, I prefer to give the team that beat us their full credit...not excuses for losing. We lost....still doesn't discount how well we played for 49 wins or even how many we came close to winning and lost by a few points...Stotts went back to the tape and addressed what went wrong with our playoff series...he was honest about it...lot of it was bench scoring and a lot was a lack of 3 pt shooters to take the pressure off Dame. Some was not having a dangerous mid range scorer in the front court.....New Orleans deserves all the credit for our sweep and we deserve all the credit for getting the 3rd seed in a stacked western conference...door swings both ways

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I don’t take anything away from the Blazers season, there were a lot of ups and downs but they won those 49 games.

I understand the “matchup” arguement with NO but I also think the fact they couldn’t figure out how to win one game is pretty disappointing.
Overall though the playoffs to me are way more important than the regular season. I’d rather have had the overall season NO had then the Blazers, sure they won less games but they got a round further and got to take a shot at GSW sure they failed (the Blazers have a couple times too), but at least the got to try.

The more I think about it what bugs me the most about that series was it took until the 4th game for the Blazers to bring the attitude that they were going to push and shove back. Holiday and Rondo seemed hungry that whole series, they were every where. The Blazers didn’t come close to meeting that intensity level until game 4.
Maybe that teaches them the lesson they need though, taught them the level of effort it takes to win those games in the playoffs.

 

[riverman]

I don’t take anything away from the Blazers season, there were a lot of ups and downs but they won those 49 games.

I understand the “matchup” arguement with NO but I also think the fact they couldn’t figure out how to win one game is pretty disappointing.
Overall though the playoffs to me are way more important than the regular season. I’d rather have had the overall season NO had then the Blazers, sure they won less games but they got a round further and got to take a shot at GSW sure they failed (the Blazers have a couple times too), but at least the got to try.

The more I think about it what bugs me the most about that series was it took until the 4th game for the Blazers to bring the attitude that they were going to push and shove back. Holiday and Rondo seemed hungry that whole series, they were every where. The Blazers didn’t come close to meeting that intensity level until game 4.
Maybe that teaches them the lesson they need though, taught them the level of effort it takes to win those games in the playoffs.

My view is that we played well enough to win the first two games and the second two were not great efforts...game 3 was the smackdown...worst of the series.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

My view is that we played well enough to win the first two games and the second two were not great efforts...game 3 was the smackdown...worst of the series.

That’s legitimate, it just seemed like in my opinion anyways the Blazers didn’t bring the same energy that NO did, it seemed like NO got to every loose ball, made all the hustle plays, pushed the Blazers around and it wasn’t until game 4 the Blazers matched that attitude.

 

[chzbrgr]

It wasn't. We were losing our games to Memphis and Dallas and got swept on our 4 game road trip and still finished 3rd. How would we have fallen to 7th?? We were losing and still didn't drop. Maybe if each loss counted as 2 losses? Your argument doesn't hold water.

This is some next level king speed right here. The man can use an 8 game losing streak as a positive. When regular people hear about losing 4 of 5 against the bottom of the league and then getting swept in the playoffs for the second straight year, they hear negatives. Not king. He hears, because we fell so hard, we must have been really high up there right?

Gotta admire that persistence

 

[riverman]

That’s legitimate, it just seemed like in my opinion anyways the Blazers didn’t bring the same energy that NO did, it seemed like NO got to every loose ball, made all the hustle plays, pushed the Blazers around and it wasn’t until game 4 the Blazers matched that attitude.

Shoutout to them...they peaked at the right time....they couldn't miss a shot...they caused turnovers...Davis was a beast...Holiday and even Mirotic and Rondo made shots....Gentry coached a masterful series and we had no answer and shot poorly...best 4 games I've seen New Orleans ever put together...they got hot..we got cold...I was really impressed with the Pelicans...no excuses should take away from their sweep of us without HC advantage..humbling defeat but they earned it. We didn't lose...they won

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

My view is that we played well enough to win the first two games and the second two were not great efforts...game 3 was the smackdown...worst of the series.

It actually reminds me of the Ducks vs Ohio State NC game a few years ago, people act like the ducks didn’t belong, but early in that game they were up 7-0 and marching down the field to score again when they had 2 dropped passes. It changed the game completely (not saying Oregon would’ve won), just saying that momentum shifted and it felt like Oregon never got it back. The Blazers made a lot of bad plays, NO made a lot of good plays at the end of game one that changed that series and the Blazers never seemed to regain any traction after that.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Shoutout to them...they peaked at the right time....they couldn't miss a shot...they caused turnovers...Davis was a beast...Holiday and even Mirotic and Rondo made shots....Gentry coached a masterful series and we had no answer and shot poorly...best 4 games I've seen New Orleans ever put together...they got hot..we got cold...I was really impressed with the Pelicans...no excuses should take away from their sweep of us without HC advantage..humbling defeat but they earned it. We didn't lose...they won

I don't look at it that way, I don't think they peaked. They simply "Jordan Rules"ed us, doubling with 2 of the league's best defenders. The rest of the team couldn't take advantage, so we got 2 shooters in FA and 2 shooters in the draft. Pels were smashed by GS in round 2.

 

[e_blazer]

That’s legitimate, it just seemed like in my opinion anyways the Blazers didn’t bring the same energy that NO did, it seemed like NO got to every loose ball, made all the hustle plays, pushed the Blazers around and it wasn’t until game 4 the Blazers matched that attitude.

The Blazers are Damian Lillard's team. The Pelicans were able to cut Dame's production from 26.9 ppg in the regular season to an average of 18.5 ppg in the 4 game series. Everyone else pretty much did their usual work, but those 8.4 ppg of lost production from Dame killed the Blazers. The Pelicans were all-in on shutting Dame down and it worked. No other team was able to accomplish that kind of a hit on Dame's production all season despite every coach game planning for him. No other team had Anthony Davis to make that defensive scheme work. In my view, it's pretty much that simple.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I don't look at it that way, I don't think they peaked. They simply "Jordan Rules"ed us, doubling with 2 of the league's best defenders. The rest of the team couldn't take advantage, so we got 2 shooters in FA and 2 shooters in the draft. Pels were smashed by GS in round 2.

The problem I have is what happens when we don’t play NO next year and we made all these adjustments to match up with NO better? Might miss having one of the best offensive rebounders in the nba... I really think that’s going to bite us, extra possessions are huge and we won’t have as many.

 

[riverman]

I don't look at it that way, I don't think they peaked. They simply "Jordan Rules"ed us, doubling with 2 of the league's best defenders. The rest of the team couldn't take advantage, so we got 2 shooters in FA and 2 shooters in the draft. Pels were smashed by GS in round 2.

fair enough...I think they peaked...couldn't miss a shot from anywhere and just made us play their game...to me it was their execution and it was pretty flawless..they weren't flawless in the second round at all...we caught a team that was in the zone for 4 straight.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

The problem I have is what happens when we don’t play NO next year and we made all these adjustments to match up with NO better?

Not at all. Surround a great player with shooters is a great overall strategy. Jordan Bulls did it, Howard Magic did it, Duncan Spurs did it....

Might miss having one of the best offensive rebounders in the nba... I really think that’s going to bite us, extra possessions are huge and we won’t have as many.

Absolutely agree here, though I'm really concerned with decreased depth here. If Aminu, Nurk, or Collins gets injured - even for a few games, it won't be pretty.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

One factor: the Pelicans were a much better team than their record just because they'd really hit their stride after a killer mid-season trade. We still shouldn't've got swept, but we had the same second-half records.

ALSO: they were a really bad matchup for us.
Counterpoint: just about every Western team outside of OKC was, which is never a good sign.

 

[riverman]

One factor: the Pelicans were a much better team than their record just because they'd really hit their stride after a killer mid-season trade. We still shouldn't've got swept, but we had the same second-half records.

ALSO: they were a really bad matchup for us.
Counterpoint: just about every Western team outside of OKC was, which is never a good sign.

I've never seen a western conference playoff race so tight...every team from the second seed down had to play almost playoff intensity games from the allstar break to the playoffs without resting starters to make the playoffs...most ran out of gas at the end which is what happened to us I think...not enough in the tank at the end. Happened to most of the Western conference teams ..not a lot of blowouts at the end of the season or garbage time wins.

 

[Sarni]

Third seed was very misleading. We were only 2 wins ahead of 8th seed and 3 wins ahead of Denver in 9th while having much better luck with injuries than virtually all teams that finished just below us. Utah would have been above us with Gobert healthy for full season, ditto Minnesota with Butler and Spurs with Leonard. We were not third best team in the West last season and playoffs showed it. 49 wins masked the issues, getting swept in the manner we did is something you cannot neglect.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The problem I have is what happens when we don’t play NO next year and we made all these adjustments to match up with NO better? Might miss having one of the best offensive rebounders in the nba... I really think that’s going to bite us, extra possessions are huge and we won’t have as many.

One thing no one has mentioned was Ed's performance in the NOP series. Not just his individual performance, but how and when he was used and how it impacted the team's performance.

Ed was a fan favorite, highly respected by his teammates and the front office, but the more I think about that NOP series, the more I understand the team's decision to let Ed go.

Yes, Ed is a great rebounder and flat out plays his ass off. I respect that, but I also respected the effort and energy Mason Plumlee brought every minute he was on the floor. I love great effort, but without talent to go with it, effort will only get you so far. And Ed, like Plums has ZERO offensive game beyond 3 feet from the basket. As much as I appreciated Plums, I'd have to be blind to not see how much better this team is at both ends of the floor with Nurk in his place.

Look at Ed's advanced stats from the NOP series:




Just look at his OBPM! -11.4 is atrocious (of the rotation players, ET was second worst at -5.1). When you are not a scoring threat, the other team is free to double team Dame with impunity - which is exactly what NOP did.

I don't so much blame Ed (he is what he is) as I blame Stotts for this. Every time NOP "went small" Stotts countered by pulling Nurk and inserting Ed. I absolutely hate this reactionary style of coaching. Stotts did the same thing against HOU earlier in the season. The Blazers blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead, got outscored 40-19 in the 4th quarter and lost a game they should have won EASILY. To me, going small when your proponent does is a defeatist strategy. You're not going to beat your opponent by playing to their strengths. You're not going to out small ball GSW, HOU, or even NOP.

Don't let your opponents force your hand. They want to go small, fine use Nurk to punish them on the low blocks. Forget the high pick and role with Nurk screening for Dame. All that does is bring another defender out from under the basket to trap Dame. Nope, plant Nurk's massive Bosian ass on the low block and force NOP to either keep Anthony Davis as far away from Damina Lillard as possible, or abuse the shit out of them if they attempt to guard Nurk with a smaller player.

With Ed in the game (he played almost as many minutes as Nurk), NOP was free to double off of him and leave him unguarded without consequence. The fact that Stotts didn't see this and kept playing right into NOP's hand pissed me off to no end. It was all too reminiscent of Alvin Gentry owning Nate McMillan by putting Grant Hill on Andre Miller and letting them hide Steve Nash on Nic Batum.

Yeah, Ed is a great guy and a hell of a rebounder (a skill I value), but his lack of offensive talent (and the way he was used) played a big role in that 1st round sweep. His minutes will go to Zach Collins. Now, we just need to hope Collins lives up to his potential on the offensive end. More than ever, in today's game, you need 2-way role players. The days of 1-way specialists are over. I believe the potential to be above average at both ends is why POR gave up two 1st round picks to move up to take Collins. I also believe it's why they didn't even attempt to resign Ed Davis.

BNM

 

[Orion Bailey]

One thing no one has mentioned was Ed's performance in the NOP series. Not just his individual performance, but how and when he was used and how it impacted the team's performance.

Ed was a fan favorite, highly respected by his teammates and the front office, but the more I think about that NOP series, the more I understand the team's decision to let Ed go.

Yes, Ed is a great rebounder and flat out plays his ass off. I respect that, but I also respected the effort and energy Mason Plumlee brought every minute he was on the floor. I love great effort, but without talent to go with it, effort will only get you so far. And Ed, like Plums has ZERO offensive game beyond 3 feet from the basket. As much as I appreciated Plums, I'd have to be blind to not see how much better this team is at both ends of the floor with Nurk in his place.

Look at Ed's advanced stats from the NOP series:

View attachment 21919
View attachment 21918

Just look at his OBPM! -11.4 is atrocious (of the rotation players, ET was second worst at -5.1). When you are not a scoring threat, the other team is free to double team Dame with impunity - which is exactly what NOP did.

I don't so much blame Ed (he is what he is) as I blame Stotts for this. Every time NOP "went small" Stotts countered by pulling Nurk and inserting Ed. I absolutely hate this reactionary style of coaching. Stotts did the same thing against HOU earlier in the season. The Blazers blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead, got outscored 40-19 in the 4th quarter and lost a game they should have won EASILY. To me, going small when your proponent does is a defeatist strategy. You're not going to beat your opponent by playing to their strengths. You're not going to out small ball GSW, HOU, or even NOP.

Don't let your opponents force your hand. They want to go small, fine use Nurk to punish them on the low blocks. Forget the high pick and role with Nurk screening for Dame. All that does is bring another defender out from under the basket to trap Dame. Nope, plant Nurk's massive Bosian ass on the low block and force NOP to either keep Anthony Davis as far away from Damina Lillard as possible, or abuse the shit out of them if they attempt to guard Nurk with a smaller player.

With Ed in the game (he played almost as many minutes as Nurk), NOP was free to double off of him and leave him unguarded without consequence. The fact that Stotts didn't see this and kept playing right into NOP's hand pissed me off to no end. It was all too reminiscent of Alvin Gentry owning Nate McMillan by putting Grant Hill on Andre Miller and letting them hide Steve Nash on Nic Batum.

Yeah, Ed is a great guy and a hell of a rebounder (a skill I value), but his lack of offensive talent (and the way he was used) played a big role in that 1st round sweep. His minutes will go to Zach Collins. Now, we just need to hope Collins lives up to his potential on the offensive end. More than ever, in today's game, you need 2-way role players. The days of 1-way specialists are over. I believe the potential to be above average at both ends is why POR gave up two 1st round picks to move up to take Collins. I also believe it's why they didn't even attempt to resign Ed Davis.

BNM

I think we will miss ed more OFF the court than on honestly.

 

[Sarni]

I also agree that Pelicans were a bad matchup but you must try to build a team that won’t be able to say something like this against anyone let alone a middle tier team like New Orleans. You should be equipped to face all of those teams and not get swept like that. Properly good teams have no such thing as ‘terrible matchups’, they might find it easier against certain teams and tougher against others but not to this extreme.

 

[H.C.]

How many teams ion the Western Conference do you see finishing with 50 plus wins?
I'd guess, maybe 3/4 is that will.

With GSW and Houston projecting to get to 60 or close to it this year.
+ The West still being competitive, and even more so with the Spurs having a second star player again...(It's Pop he'll figure it out)
I have my doubts that anyone outside of GSW/Houston will be hitting that 50 win mark.
45-49 is where I suspect 3-12 to land.

The Blazers are Damian Lillard's team. The Pelicans were able to cut Dame's production from 26.9 ppg in the regular season to an average of 18.5 ppg in the 4 game series. Everyone else pretty much did their usual work, but those 8.4 ppg of lost production from Dame killed the Blazers. The Pelicans were all-in on shutting Dame down and it worked. No other team was able to accomplish that kind of a hit on Dame's production all season despite every coach game planning for him. No other team had Anthony Davis to make that defensive scheme work. In my view, it's pretty much that simple.

So what you're saying is Stotts was out coached.

 

[e_blazer]

With GSW and Houston projecting to get to 60 or close to it this year.
+ The West still being competitive, and even more so with the Spurs having a second star player again...(It's Pop he'll figure it out)
I have my doubts that anyone outside of GSW/Houston will be hitting that 50 win mark.
45-49 is where I suspect 3-12 to land.



So what you're saying is Stotts was out coached.

Sure, if out-coached means failing to have a player on the roster who matches up well with Anthony Davis, or who is a strong enough scorer to keep Davis from being able to double on Dame every time down the court.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Sure, if out-coached means failing to have a player on the roster who matches up well with Anthony Davis, or who is a strong enough scorer to keep Davis from being able to double on Dame every time down the court.

I think where I’d say Stotts got out coached and maybe it’s on the roster too, was they needed to find creative ways to get Dame good shots, get him some space. Not run him into another PNR with Nurk or Ed where he’d get stuck with two defenders all over him. Like I said I know part of it is is roster, but A they should’ve attacked the basket more instead of jacking up 3’s and B just get Dame off the ball make Holiday and Rondo chase him around screens.