New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies, 5 pm
The Pelicans pasted the Thunder for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West by defeating the Golden State Warriors, a team that is already locked into the No. 1 seed and really has nothing to play for at this point, 103-100 Tuesday night in New Orleans. But unlike the Warriors, the Grizzlies, a team at least one model has as Portland’s most likely playoff opponent, could still end up anywhere between second and sixth in the standings with fives games to play. A win keeps Memphis at third in the West, a spot they currently share with the L.A. Clippers, while a loss would drop them into a tie with the Spurs for sixth, though San Antonio also plays tonight (more on that in a minute).
In short, a Memphis win decreases the chance of the Trail Blazers facing the Grizzlies in the first round, while a lot improves that possibility. The Grizzlies would host the Spurs if the playoffs started today, so one wonders if they’d rather fall to the fifth spot and improve their chances of hosting the Trail Blazers in the first round. Of course, with games left versus the Clippers (Memphis leads that series 2-1) and the Warriors, it’s also possible they slip to the sixth seed and end up playing either the Clippers or Spurs without home-court, which would be the worst possible outcome for the Grizzlies. So it seems like the most likely scenario is Memphis does their best to win out and hold on to the three seed.
Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs, 5:30 pm
This is the first of two consecutive games between the Rockets and Spurs, with the next meeting taking place on Friday in Houston (that’s some quality late-season schedule making). The Spurs trail the Rockets by 1.5 games for the top spot in the Southwest Division with four games to play, so a win tonight by San Antonio would keep them in the running for the second seed. The season series is tied 1-1, so the tiebreaker is still up for grabs. You can assume that both teams will be trying their damnedest to win this one, though with the Spurs, you can never really tell.
If the Rockets win, they increase their lead on both the Grizzlies and Clippers to 1.5 games (though that changes depending on the result of Pelicans v. Grizzlies) and improve their chances of winning the Southwest Division, the two seed and a first round matchup versus the Mavericks, a team all but locked into the seventh seed. If the Spurs win, they pull to even with the Clippers for the third-best record in the West (though the Clippers own the tiebreaker) and either keep pace with or pass the Grizzlies pending the result of their game versus the Pelicans.
So in regard to the Trail Blazers, a Spurs win improves the chance of Portland playing the Spurs in San Antonio in the first round. A loss increases the chances of the Trail Blazers playing the Grizzlies or Clippers in the first round.
