Who would you trade CJ McCollum for?

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Dan Marang said:
I would never ask anyone to bow down to anything. But there are analytics. There are facts.
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There are analytics, and there are case studies; one fuels the other. You're not really giving us a case study here, because I'm only seeing some basic split of a basic stat. Nothing advanced, nothing that tells a story. Up-level this shit if you want to connect with your point.
 
Dan Marang said:
Personally, I use facts and analytics to see if what my eyes tell me is happening is in fact real, or if I'm perceiving something incorrectly or out of context. It may appear I'm basing it on analytics but I watch the games- over and over and over. Then I go back and look at specific clips. Then I take the context and weigh that against the data. I could do that in my writing, but that would take an already long and arduous read and make it even longer. I don't claim to have the holy grail of analytics either- there have been plenty of things I've been wrong on. However, I've learned from those instances and now- before I make a statement on something I try to have a fully formed opinion backed by not only the data but what my eyes tell me is going on. However, if I'm going to differ- I'll always side with the data in decision making. Why? Because the smartest people in sports, and the world do so.
...
I get it- some people want to rely on their gut instinct. I do it as well. I just try to back up what my brain is telling me against what the data is telling me to make any real sense of it. Don't for one second sit there and think I' m just some guy crunching numbers on basketball. Sit down and watch a game with me sometime, see if you think I'm just the data nerd, guarantee you'll have a different opinion :cheers:
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Hmm. You're not quite "the data nerd" - you're "the data that backs up my gut" nerd. For example, you hate DRPM, as you said. That's okay - it could be a rubbish stat, but the reason you don't like it is that it doesn't agree with what you happen to believe.

There is no such thing as "pure analytics". Suppose we pick "assists per game" - what counts as an assist will vary from person to person. Scorekeepers in Utah were notoriously generous to John Stockton, for example. Now, with better cameras and such, there's less of a human factor, but there's also the aspect that stats are associated with particular individuals (mostly - some are groups) but, as everyone knows, no stat is purely an individual's responsibility. (I guess you could make the case for "shooting % on uncontested shots" but even those could be affected by how confident the shooter is on other players screening off possible defenders from getting to him). And, to take an example of a stat we've been discussing, "% at the rim" is obviously going to be affected by your teammates. If you're playing with a quality big man who demands coverage, then you are much more likely to get a clear chance at a layup. Or, if your coach designs plays that facilitate you getting layups, then likewise.

So it's never "data vs. gut" because which "data" you point to is going to be a product of what stats your gut tells you are reliable.
 
Natebishop3 said:
I guess I just disagree. I think he could be the starting point guard and the primary scorer for a team. His run while Dame was out was very impressive.
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I agree CJ 'could' be. What I'd prefer, is that the Blazers have another SG who is good enough to start, and CJ comes off the bench as the sixth man of the year and combo scoring guard for the Blazers next championship contender.
 
BBert said:
I agree CJ 'could' be. What I'd prefer, is that the Blazers have another SG who is good enough to start, and CJ comes off the bench as the sixth man of the year and combo scoring guard for the Blazers next championship contender.
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Sure, but I'm not talking about what would work best for our team. I'm looking purely from the standpoint of what would maximize his potential, and I think that would be starting as a point guard where he is the #1 option on offense. I think there's a ceiling that he will never achieve in Portland.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Hmm. You're not quite "the data nerd" - you're "the data that backs up my gut" nerd. For example, you hate DRPM, as you said. That's okay - it could be a rubbish stat, but the reason you don't like it is that it doesn't agree with what you happen to believe.

There is no such thing as "pure analytics". Suppose we pick "assists per game" - what counts as an assist will vary from person to person. Scorekeepers in Utah were notoriously generous to John Stockton, for example. Now, with better cameras and such, there's less of a human factor, but there's also the aspect that stats are associated with particular individuals (mostly - some are groups) but, as everyone knows, no stat is purely an individual's responsibility. (I guess you could make the case for "shooting % on uncontested shots" but even those could be affected by how confident the shooter is on other players screening off possible defenders from getting to him). And, to take an example of a stat we've been discussing, "% at the rim" is obviously going to be affected by your teammates. If you're playing with a quality big man who demands coverage, then you are much more likely to get a clear chance at a layup. Or, if your coach designs plays that facilitate you getting layups, then likewise.

So it's never "data vs. gut" because which "data" you point to is going to be a product of what stats your gut tells you are reliable.
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No. I don't like DRPM b/c I don't like DRPM as a junk stat. I've stated numerous times on here in different articles where it's mentioned that I won't cite it. Not b/c it enforces a certain point of view. If that's your take on my belief, I hate to inform you you're sorely mistaken.

Per game stats are not typically my go to- I opt for per 36 or per 100 depending on the sampling. Yes human error plays a part- which are why things like potential assists and hockey assists exist. No system is perfect, but the analytics community is constantly pushing to cover up those areas.

Like I said before - there is no analytics holy grail- and context always matter but when a preponderance of evidence points to one thing- a persons reaction should not be to try and find more holes in it. You start getting into the ignorance fallacy when every way you slice something it turns out the same way- if you're still sitting there acting as if it doesn't.

At this point I think the case is well stated- and I'll dive even more into it when I post the piece later, but I guess tt’s up to each to interpret it individually I suppose. :dunno:
 
Dan Marang said:
There is no analytics holy grail- and context always matter but when a preponderance of evidence points to one thing- a persons reaction should not be to try and find more holes in it. You start getting into the ignorance fallacy when every way you slice something it turns out the same way- if you're still sitting there acting as if it doesn't.
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Confidence in your stats is what blinds you to mistakes. Remember this the next time you hopelessly fuck up at work; it was probably because you were confident that you were right and stopped trying to puncture holes in your POV. "Yes, but" is the RIGHT and GOOD reaction to a preponderance of stats. Not "I guess you're right."

You'll learn this as you gain experience in your job. Early on in my career, I made some dumb mistakes because I was 100% confident in my POV, and had all sorts of stats to back them up. But I was dead wrong.
 
Dan Marang said:
No. I don't like DRPM b/c I don't like DRPM as a junk stat. I've stated numerous times on here in different articles where it's mentioned that I won't cite it. Not b/c it enforces a certain point of view. If that's your take on my belief, I hate to inform you you're sorely mistaken.

Per game stats are not typically my go to- I opt for per 36 or per 100 depending on the sampling. Yes human error plays a part- which are why things like potential assists and hockey assists exist. No system is perfect, but the analytics community is constantly pushing to cover up those areas.

Like I said before - there is no analytics holy grail- and context always matter but when a preponderance of evidence points to one thing- a persons reaction should not be to try and find more holes in it. You start getting into the ignorance fallacy when every way you slice something it turns out the same way- if you're still sitting there acting as if it doesn't.

At this point I think the case is well stated- and I'll dive even more into it when I post the piece later, but I guess tt’s up to each to interpret it individually I suppose. :dunno:
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Rasta LOVES DRPM and ORPM. It's his go-to stat right now.
 
BlazerCaravan said:
Confidence in your stats is what blinds you to mistakes. Remember this the next time you hopelessly fuck up at work; it was probably because you were confident that you were right and stopped trying to puncture holes in your POV. "Yes, but" is the RIGHT and GOOD reaction to a preponderance of stats. Not "I guess you're right."

You'll learn this as you gain experience in your job. Early on in my career, I made some dumb mistakes because I was 100% confident in my POV, and had all sorts of stats to back them up. But I was dead wrong.
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xbmchub-fight.jpg

:devilwink:
 
At least I realize how insufferable my stat posts seemed to people five years ago when I was That Guy. :lol:
 
So if CJ led the league in getting his shot blocked, what do the analytics suggest?
 
Sinobas said:
How do you know that would never happen? CJ is young and Gasol/Milsap are past 30. KAT a hall of fame lock? Yeah...ok.
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I don't know (nobody does) but I think it's a lot more likely to happen vs. not. KAT doesn't have a good chance @ HOF? Yeah...ok.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ys-karl-anthony-towns-will-be-a-hall-of-famer

^ Does KD's opinion count?

http://nba.cdn.turner.com/nba/big/t...llardLrkPOST31JAN16__.mp4-264773_1280x720.mp4

^ @ ~43 seconds in, someone we know thinks highly of KAT too (fully aware he does not call KAT HOF or mention anything like that BUT this guy DOES recognize this is no ordinary rook).
 
Sinobas said:
Ah, I should have known to avoid trade threads. Some stupid bitch always replies "That would never happen blah blah blah blah" :blahblah:
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Yeah... well... u didn't so there's that. Really? Name calling?:grouch:
 
Layups at the end of fast breaks should show up as close buckets.
 
Orion Bailey said:
...I dont know if Ive ever smoked that much to be that delusional..
NOt saying he wont make it, but Lock???? If he is a lock then they shoulda voted in Dame last year...
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I don't know (nobody does) but I think it's a lot more likely to happen vs. not. KAT doesn't have a good chance @ HOF?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ys-karl-anthony-towns-will-be-a-hall-of-famer

^ Does KD's opinion count? KD & I smoke the same stuff
kevin-durant-smoking.jpg


http://nba.cdn.turner.com/nba/big/t...llardLrkPOST31JAN16__.mp4-264773_1280x720.mp4

^ @ ~43 seconds in, someone we know thinks highly of KAT too (fully aware he does not call KAT HOF or mention anything like that BUT this guy DOES recognize this is no ordinary rook).

Speaking of Dame, he's great & I/we love him & he'll cont. to improve but by no means am I saying KAT this yr. or Dame last yr. should b HOF; I certainly hope Dame can b a HOF 1 day, THAT'd b awesome! I wouldn't b surprised if Dame became a HOF but w/ Dame it's too hard to tell yet; certainly understand how u/1 could use that same logic for KAT BUT... KAT is not ur garden variety big that's playing well, he has the tangibles AND intangibles already to b a franchise changer & has the chops for winning basketball.

ps KAT WILL improve/does need to improve to get to HOF or even hopeful but I think he's more than likely to get there:wink:
 
Junk Stat-

Any stat that is repackaged and bundled with "proprietary" data- whether it be algorithms, weights, processes, etc., then sold without having it peer reviewed or verified by any sort of independent and objective person(s). Not to mention there needs to be adjustment based on players by position, which itself has to be adjusted.

Here's a couple examples of why you shouldn't be using DRPM- particularly in season and not position adjusted.

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2014/4/8/5594238/problem-with-real-plus-minus
http://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2014/4/9/5591108/jae-crowder-problem-espn-real-plus-minus-rpm
https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/


But remember, my posts are insufferable and I don't know what I'm doing ;-)
 
Denny Crane said:
Layups at the end of fast breaks should show up as close buckets.
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I could spend some serious time and analyze every single one of CJs shots and probably eliminate the FB baskets and do them separately. But that's a month long type deal... I may do something like that during the summer. I'll have a baseline to go off of for 2016 then...
 
Dan Marang said:
I could spend some serious time and analyze every single one of CJs shots and probably eliminate the FB baskets and do them separately. But that's a month long type deal... I may do something like that during the summer. I'll have a baseline to go off of for 2016 then...
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If he's not getting many inside shots, he's getting way fewer fast break layups. That's what I was getting at.

He may stop at the 3pt line, pull up mid range to avoid contact, or pass to someone else.

Or he simply doesn't participate in many fast breaks. Everyone should! ;)
 
I always thought the shot clock threw off a lot of stats when it comes to shooting percentage, etc...there are plenty of hot potato shots and guys who have the ball a lot, get to chuck up the prayers...this is to me a random, uncertain element that shooting percentages don't really reflect, at least in most stat breakdowns...how many of CJs shots are with 1 second on the clock as opposed to someone who just doesn' t handle the ball under pressure that much
 
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