Win Now or Rebuild?

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Public Defender

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The way I see it, the Blazers have two options:

1.) Involves the following:
- cross their fingers that Brandon Roy's knee will right itself
- bank on Oden either coming back next year or having another immediate solution at center (re-signing Przybilla and keeping him healthy?)
- Aldridge developing into one of the 2-3 best power forwards in the West
- Miller continuing to stay healthy and Armon Johnson improving
- and the combination of Batum, Mathews, and Fernandez supplying sufficient three-point accuracy to keep defenses honest.

OR

2.) Choose the "players of the future" and get value out of the players that aren't on that list.

I'm leaning toward #2 at this point, because I'm just not convinced without a healthy Brandon Roy that the Blazers have a legit championship window right now.
 
With Roy and Aldridge's contracts a true rebuild is almost impossible unless the next CBA includes provisions for partially guaranteed contracts or some mechanism of dumping a player's contract and having that money come off your cap.

The bottom line: Aside from the expiring deals that a few of our vets have, there aren't a lot of desirable pieces on this team.
 
Is winning even an option? We are a .500 team with the current roster of mediocre talent.

Time for a mini-rebuild. Get the best talent you can for Andre and Joel's contracts. That's the only option I see.
 
First step is quite easy:

Plan a future without Greg Oden.

We're hamstrung with him. If he stays healthy, if he can come back strong... if, if, if, if, if.
 
trade who ever you can without giving up batum to get iggy and let armon take point yes its going to hurt watching it sometimes but if roy is semi healthy enough to run point sometimes it could work. or run it with roy 1 batum/iggy 2/3 aldridge 4 camby 5 i think we can live off of cunningham and if we get that injury exception add another 4/5 hopefully someone better than marks
 
what young good point guard would you give up batum for? i can think of a few and im positive they arent on the table for anyone....
 
I've been saying it since Oden went down for the season, but I think we need to do a refit. We aren't going to do anything this season, and we'll be lucky if we make the playoffs. Trade Miller, Joel, and maybe even Camby. Get some young pieces that still fit our core and help extend our window. Someone like Iggy would be great. It's obvious that the Bayless trade isn't going to get us much. That pick will probably be in the high 20s.
 
cdub503 said:
what young good point guard would you give up batum for? i can think of a few and im positive they arent on the table for anyone....
Click to expand...

Brooks or Harris might be reasonable targets around the deadline.

I think we need to go after Iguodala first since he's availability is the worst kept secret in the NBA. I have a feeling we would be closing quarters a lot stronger with another scorer like him.
 
i would not give up batum for either of those point guards.... maybe i hold batum way too high but i wouldnt give him up for that
 
craigehlo said:
Brooks or Harris might be reasonable targets around the deadline.

I think we need to go after Iguodala first since he's availability is the worst kept secret in the NBA. I have a feeling we would be closing quarters a lot stronger with another scorer like him.
Click to expand...

Harris....maybe...

But, Brooks? An undersized volume shooting PG with no real playmaking abilities. I'd rather keep Batum.
 
cdub503 said:
i would not give up batum for either of those point guards.... maybe i hold batum way too high but i wouldnt give him up for that
Click to expand...

Well to be frank, what the hell has Batum done besides have a lot of tools? In order for Batum to really be worth something, he needs to show something. For starters showing up for more than one out of every 3 or 4 games would be a big bonus. He just does not play confidently.
 
not many 21 year olds are consistent as far as i can tell...
 
Out of all the young players the Blazers have had not named Roy/Aldridge/Oden, Batum is by far the best looking prospect out of the bunch(Rudy/Outlaw/Webster/Bayless/etc.). He won't and shouldn't fizzle out and is definitely worth keeping out of trade talks unless it's a real difference maker.
 
I would rather try to figure out a deal for Roy. If he can string together a few decent games, maybe someone would be willing to take his big contract off our hands?
 
cdub503 said:
not many 21 year olds are consistent as far as i can tell...
Click to expand...

This is the same thing said of Webster. I think Batum has a shot of being a very good player, but he's already developed a lot of bad habits this far in his young career. His head isn't in the game and he seems to lack any sort of killer instinct.
 
I would do a combination of things to try and turn the team around. The first is identifying the problems on the team and then attacking those problems.

1. Lack of bigs to set screens and rebound.
2. Too many players that play the same position.
3. No true backup SF. It is quite possible there is no true starting SF either.
4. Players that don't fit the system.
5. Backup PG.

In response to what I would do after identifying the problems is then to identify players which can help the team solve those issues, and by identify, I mean players who are elsewhere and are looking for a better gig where they can get more minutes. Those may be content or not so content players, and can also be players who are considered troublemakers by their current team because they are not fitting in.

So that being said, who would I look at?

I would try to pry either of Martin Gortat or Brandon Bass from the Magic.

I would look at Terrence Williams who hasn't been working out in New Jersey, but is known to be a very talented player.

You could also just let the shit hit the fan, and then use the high draft pick to finally take a high end point guard.
 
cdub503 said:
not many 21 year olds are consistent as far as i can tell...
Click to expand...

Really? I have seen a ton of players come into the league straight out of high school and do well within 3 years, and a lot of those players had a rough year or two before they got it going. Why does Batum get a pass? In fact, I find it quite disturbing. Even if a young player isn't playing well they should have good effort statistics.
 
hasoos said:
I would do a combination of things to try and turn the team around. The first is identifying the problems on the team and then attacking those problems.

1. Lack of bigs to set screens and rebound.
2. Too many players that play the same position.
3. No true backup SF. It is quite possible there is no true starting SF either.
4. Players that don't fit the system.
5. Backup PG.

In response to what I would do after identifying the problems is then to identify players which can help the team solve those issues, and by identify, I mean players who are elsewhere and are looking for a better gig where they can get more minutes. Those may be content or not so content players, and can also be players who are considered troublemakers by their current team because they are not fitting in.

So that being said, who would I look at?

I would try to pry either of Martin Gortat or Brandon Bass from the Magic.

I would look at Terrence Williams who hasn't been working out in New Jersey, but is known to be a very talented player.

You could also just let the shit hit the fan, and then use the high draft pick to finally take a high end point guard.
Click to expand...

Missed that boat by a year... :sigh:
 
The problem is we can't make a decision for the long term until we have an idea what the new CBA will look like. Once the owners decide what they're going to give up and what has to stick, we don't know whether dumping contracts/players will help us.
 
Only way to win now is for Brandon to go away so the "real" players can get their minutes and work on putting together some type of chemistry before the season is over.

It takes 3 months for a starting lineup to get comfortable with each other.

We're 16 games into the season and we're still trying to figure out who to start on a nightly basis [thanks Nate for being so frickin' stupid as to not start Wesley against the Hornets and the Nets....grow some balls, Nate, and sit Roy, and never let him play more than 15 minutes in a game (and that's 5 minutes too much)]
 
In the abstract, rebuild/retool is the way to go. As a practical matter, it won't be that simple. It is very possible the team will just coast until the new CBA is agreed upon, then blow the team up.

If they were aggressive about it, they should be able to turn Miller/Camby/Joel's contract into something useful. Does Cho have the experience/willingness/permission to do so?
 
maxiep said:
The problem is we can't make a decision for the long term until we have an idea what the new CBA will look like. Once the owners decide what they're going to give up and what has to stick, we don't know whether dumping contracts/players will help us.
Click to expand...

Yup. But I have a feeling that even with that uncertainty, there will be some teams looking to shed longterm contracts for expirings, especially if a hard-cap gets into the next bargaining agreement with no way of dumping existing deals.
 
oldmangrouch said:
In the abstract, rebuild/retool is the way to go. As a practical matter, it won't be that simple. It is very possible the team will just coast until the new CBA is agreed upon, then blow the team up.

If they were aggressive about it, they should be able to turn Miller/Camby/Joel's contract into something useful. Does Cho have the experience/willingness/permission to do so?
Click to expand...

The last bit is the million dollar question and only Paul (Bert, Larry, Hat-Guy?) knows the answer to it.
 
I agree with Nik difficult to rebuild with Roy and Aldridge contracts although if some team overvalued Aldridge and offered us something like a really good young player and a top five draft pick, I would consider that. Agree with Fez that future should be planned without Oden; I think our biggest need is a strong, athletic, aggressive big. I guess in general, i am in favor of rebuild on the fly, can't really stomach being the worst team in the league again. So I'm not really in favor of dealing Miller, Pryzbilla or Camby unless we get real value back. We do have four rookies on the roster; work on improving them; even if they don't fit they may have some trade value if played. Either variant of rebuilding really shouldn't include Rudy; what's the point, might as well release him tomorrow. I think the GM should be patient and wait for a trade that really helps, if not, don't trade.
 
At this point its a rebuild year with Rudy being so fragile and we don't know how Przy will play when he comes back.
 
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