With the #7 pick, the Portland Trail Blazers select....

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LayneStaley said:
Just draft ONE of the studs that WILL be there at 7(Murray, Sochan, Daniels, Duren) and trade Mil pick/EB for Grant. Simple. Grant with any one of those guys will make us much better. I don’t expect any unprecedented trades or multi leveled deals to happen. Make the right pick and the obvious trade and let’s see where that puts us.
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This has also been my preference. If someone better than Grant is available, then sure trade #7. If not, keep the 7th pick and trade a future pick for Grant. If Detroit says no, then tell the Pistons to FO.
 
Jeremy Sochan is 2 years and 9 months younger than Keegan Murray. Sochan just turned 19 years old on May 20 and Murray will be 22 years old on August 19th.
Murray shot the identical 3-point percentage to Sochan in his freshman season, .296. Murray jumped to .398 on 3-pointers in his sophomore season. Making a big jump in the sophomore season happens to a lot of players.
Could that happen with Sochan too, as an NBA rookie? I don't know, but Sochan did shoot 36 % on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, which is what he'd be doing with the Trail Blazers.

With his 39% 3-point shooting and 62% 2-point percentage (he has fantastic touch off the glass), Murray is a super-efficient scorer that had a true shooting percentage of 64%.

Sochan is a beast on defense with a high BBIQ and motor. He can defend 1-4 and sometimes 1-5. He can play PF and small-ball C. He's got good dribbling and passing skills for a guy his size. His 3-point shooting isn't good, but it's at the level of Draymond Green. It's much better than Watford's 23.7%. And his catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage (36%), if it can be maintained, is fine.

Both of these players would be great fits for the Trail Blazers. Pretty much guaranteed that one or both of them will be available at pick #7.
 
LayneStaley said:
Just draft ONE of the studs that WILL be there at 7(Murray, Sochan, Daniels, Duren) and trade Mil pick/EB for Grant. Simple. Grant with any one of those guys will make us much better. I don’t expect any unprecedented trades or multi leveled deals to happen. Make the right pick and the obvious trade and let’s see where that puts us.
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Do Dame and Cronin rhetoric make you think a rookie will be on the roster?

I doubt it, they will want to trade the rookie for a veteran.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
Do Dame and Cronin rhetoric make you think a rookie will be on the roster?

I doubt it, they will want to trade the rookie for a veteran.
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That doesn't mean they will trade the pick for any Vet. I think we all would want to trade it for a difference-maker. But if that opportunity does not become available then I doubt either one of them will want to pass on a rookie with excellent potential.
They can still get a vet if they keep the pick.

Dame is no idiot. If he sees talent in a player they bring in to evaluate, he will warm up to him.
 
blazerfan11 said:
Which one of Grant or Randle is going to feed the ball to Nurkic like Winslow was doing? Nurk ended up with a very high true shooting percentage playing with Winslow. One of the top priorities for Winslow was getting the ball in good scoring position to shooters, not only Nurkic but helping a guy like McLemore reposition for an open shot. This all is ingrained in him. Nurkic's and McLemore's improved scoring isn't going to show up in Winslow's box score.
He played up-in-your-grill defense against anybody, including Kevin Durant and Lebron James. Which is also part of his DNA.
If the Blazers simply try to add "talent" without regard for chemistry it could very well be a repeat of the beginning of the 2021-2022 season. Play hard when they feel like it. Play as a team when they feel like it.
I think Billup learned something about that from the beginning of the 2021-22 season and I am hoping he has a big input to who we add to the roster.
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I didn't actually have Nurk on the team in this situation but to answer your question Randle is a really great passing big who has the ability to facilitate offense on a level most PGs don't.
 
blazerkor said:
I didn't actually have Nurk on the team in this situation but to answer your question Randle is a really great passing big who has the ability to facilitate offense on a level most PGs don't.
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Randle isn't a good 3-point shooter, 33% over the last 3 seasons. If you take out his magical 3-point shooting season of 2020-2021, when he shot 41 percent on three pointers, Randle averaged 28 percent 3-point shooting in his 6 other seasons.
He's erratic over the years on his overall shooting efficiency.

He's 27 years old and has 4 years left on his contract (I am counting his player option on the 4th year), starting with $26 million next season.

He is good at getting to the free-throw line, which increases his scoring efficiency, but at 53% True shooting percent in the last 3 seasons, not great. His career TS% is 55 percent.

He's a good passer.
 
blazerfan11 said:
Randle isn't a good 3-point shooter, 33% over the last 3 seasons. If you take out his magical 3-point shooting season of 2020-2021, when he shot 41 percent on three pointers, Randle averaged 28 percent 3-point shooting in his 6 other seasons.
He's erratic over the years on his overall shooting efficiency.

He's 27 years old and has 4 years left on his contract (I am counting his player option on the 4th year), starting with $26 million next season.

He is good at getting to the free-throw line, which increases his scoring efficiency, but at 53% True shooting percent in the last 3 seasons, not great. His career TS% is 55 percent.

He's a good passer.
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I'm not married to any of the ideas I'm throwing out there to be honest. In fact I kinda hate the idea of a Randle/Nurk front court on the defensive side, I don't think it has enough speed. That being said, Randle would be a great offensive weapon with Dame, his ability to get his own shot going to the whole or posting up and set others up, along with his ability to shoot the ball because despite wanting to minimize it he had an entire season of high volume shooting (5.5 threes attempted a game) at 40%... that's not magic, it's him being engaged and a system that works for him. If he was playing with Dame and Ant, I would want him to see himself as a secondary playmaker and third option scoring... if he was playing with Dame, Ant and Grant, I think he'd drop to the fourth option.

The thing that would make me happy that seems to be out there as a realistic possibility would be for us to trade back to 9 and 25, grab Sochan at 9, use 25 and hopefully not a lot more to get Grant in here with the TPE and then draft a solid backup C at 36 (Robinson or Koloko). We'd need to add a PG for depth either by moving up from the 55th pick in the second round or with the TPMLE. I would be willing to see how that team would do and would be cool if that was the outcome of our off season. If it turns out better than that on paper, I'll be thrilled.

The questions that will need to be answered are: Does the Dame/Ant backcourt work both as equal or more than the sum of their parts on offense and functional on defense? Can Grant embrace a new role here and be a lot more effective without opposing defenses putting all of their attention on him? Just how good can Sochan be? Because I think he's really gifted and has a high motor and could be special. Can our bench be a strength? A bench of Hart, Nas, Justise, backup C, backup PG and the younger guys seems like it could be really strong. The last question is a big one, can we stay healthy? Nas, Justise and Nurk are huge question marks on that one.
 
blazerkor said:
I'm not married to any of the ideas I'm throwing out there to be honest. In fact I kinda hate the idea of a Randle/Nurk front court on the defensive side, I don't think it has enough speed. That being said, Randle would be a great offensive weapon with Dame, his ability to get his own shot going to the whole or posting up and set others up, along with his ability to shoot the ball because despite wanting to minimize it he had an entire season of high volume shooting (5.5 threes attempted a game) at 40%... that's not magic, it's him being engaged and a system that works for him. If he was playing with Dame and Ant, I would want him to see himself as a secondary playmaker and third option scoring... if he was playing with Dame, Ant and Grant, I think he'd drop to the fourth option.

The thing that would make me happy that seems to be out there as a realistic possibility would be for us to trade back to 9 and 25, grab Sochan at 9, use 25 and hopefully not a lot more to get Grant in here with the TPE and then draft a solid backup C at 36 (Robinson or Koloko). We'd need to add a PG for depth either by moving up from the 55th pick in the second round or with the TPMLE. I would be willing to see how that team would do and would be cool if that was the outcome of our off season. If it turns out better than that on paper, I'll be thrilled.

The questions that will need to be answered are: Does the Dame/Ant backcourt work both as equal or more than the sum of their parts on offense and functional on defense? Can Grant embrace a new role here and be a lot more effective without opposing defenses putting all of their attention on him? Just how good can Sochan be? Because I think he's really gifted and has a high motor and could be special. Can our bench be a strength? A bench of Hart, Nas, Justise, backup C, backup PG and the younger guys seems like it could be really strong. The last question is a big one, can we stay healthy? Nas, Justise and Nurk are huge question marks on that one.
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These are catch-and-shoot stats for player with 3 or more total 3-point attempts for the regular season. #1 was Anfernee Simons. If the Blazers can get him the ball often for catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, that backcourt could be really good.
upload_2022-5-28_18-44-15.png

Edit: Correction - these are Catch-and-shoot numbers for players taking 3 or more Catch-and-shoot threes (not 3 or more 3-pointers overall). Simons averaged 7.8 three-pointers a game.
Also notice that Simons had the highest overall shooting percentage of any player who took 3 or more catch-and-shoot 3-pointers (I re-ordered it by overall shooting percentage and Simons, Curry, Harris, Kennard were still the top 4 in that order).
 

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Since we're getting closer to the draft, I thought I'd post a few of my charts that look at some draft history/trends:

Here's a look at all of the Blazers draft choices over the years. The x-axis is the draft pick number, and the y-axis is the Win-Share for the player drafted. I did this a few years ago, so some of the active and newer picks may not be up to date. The solid line is the average WS for the league for that pick number.

upload_2022-5-30_13-11-44.png

The Blazers have found some gems over the years (over the line), and quite a few duds (under the line).
Note: Oden was not the Blazers worst #1 pick (based on WS). Do you know who was?

Here's a fun little analysis of the expectation at each draft pick. The x-axis is the draft pick, and the y-axis is the percent chance of drafting an all-star or starter. I defined a starter as a player that starts over half of their career games.

upload_2022-5-30_13-13-48.png

I did this chart quite a few years ago, so it definitely fluctuates. But it gives you a good general idea of what to expect from each draft position. The Blazers drafting at #7 this year have about a 70% chance of getting a solid starter, and about a 14% chance of nabbing an all-star.

With all of that said, here are my preferences for this year:
At the #7 spot:
- Keegan Murray
- Tari Eason
- Jalen Duren
- AJ Griffin

Potential second rounders;
- Mark Williams
- Walker Kessler
- Kendall Brown
- Wendell Moore

I hope the Blazers don't trade the #7 pick, especially for Grant. He's a good player and all, but he's not the missing piece to get us over the top and contend. We need to start building for the future. I think we're going to have a few nice options there at #7.
 

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42N8Bounce said:
Since we're getting closer to the draft, I thought I'd post a few of my charts that look at some draft history/trends:

Here's a look at all of the Blazers draft choices over the years. The x-axis is the draft pick number, and the y-axis is the Win-Share for the player drafted. I did this a few years ago, so some of the active and newer picks may not be up to date. The solid line is the average WS for the league for that pick number.

View attachment 47712

The Blazers have found some gems over the years (over the line), and quite a few duds (under the line).
Note: Oden was not the Blazers worst #1 pick (based on WS). Do you know who was?

Here's a fun little analysis of the expectation at each draft pick. The x-axis is the draft pick, and the y-axis is the percent chance of drafting an all-star or starter. I defined a starter as a player that starts over half of their career games.

View attachment 47713

I did this chart quite a few years ago, so it definitely fluctuates. But it gives you a good general idea of what to expect from each draft position. The Blazers drafting at #7 this year have about a 70% chance of getting a solid starter, and about a 14% chance of nabbing an all-star.

With all of that said, here are my preferences for this year:
At the #7 spot:
- Keegan Murray
- Tari Eason
- Jalen Duren
- AJ Griffin

Potential second rounders;
- Mark Williams
- Walker Kessler
- Kendall Brown
- Wendell Moore

I hope the Blazers don't trade the #7 pick, especially for Grant. He's a good player and all, but he's not the missing piece to get us over the top and contend. We need to start building for the future. I think we're going to have a few nice options there at #7.
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Was Clyde Drexler (#14) off the top of the chart?

(Edit....I see the note below. My goodness.....WAY OFF THE TOP of the chart!)
 
TBpup said:
Was Clyde Drexler (#14) off the top of the chart?

(Edit....I see the note below. My goodness.....WAY OFF THE TOP of the chart!)
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Still our best blazer ever. Even if he doesn't rep us anymore. If it wasn't for MJ, we would have won one.
 
Two second round picks would be my guess given their track record.
 
If option B is better than keeping the 7th pick, good. The predominant opinion in the media among basketball people is something other than keeping the pick. Blogs, too.

Since the single greatest odds of a pick was 7, not 6, for Portland’s pick in the lottery, I’ll go with that.

Murray > Sochan > Daniels
 
42N8Bounce said:
Since we're getting closer to the draft, I thought I'd post a few of my charts that look at some draft history/trends:

Here's a look at all of the Blazers draft choices over the years. The x-axis is the draft pick number, and the y-axis is the Win-Share for the player drafted. I did this a few years ago, so some of the active and newer picks may not be up to date. The solid line is the average WS for the league for that pick number.

View attachment 47712

The Blazers have found some gems over the years (over the line), and quite a few duds (under the line).
Note: Oden was not the Blazers worst #1 pick (based on WS). Do you know who was?

Here's a fun little analysis of the expectation at each draft pick. The x-axis is the draft pick, and the y-axis is the percent chance of drafting an all-star or starter. I defined a starter as a player that starts over half of their career games.

View attachment 47713

I did this chart quite a few years ago, so it definitely fluctuates. But it gives you a good general idea of what to expect from each draft position. The Blazers drafting at #7 this year have about a 70% chance of getting a solid starter, and about a 14% chance of nabbing an all-star.

With all of that said, here are my preferences for this year:
At the #7 spot:
- Keegan Murray
- Tari Eason
- Jalen Duren
- AJ Griffin

Potential second rounders;
- Mark Williams
- Walker Kessler
- Kendall Brown
- Wendell Moore

I hope the Blazers don't trade the #7 pick, especially for Grant. He's a good player and all, but he's not the missing piece to get us over the top and contend. We need to start building for the future. I think we're going to have a few nice options there at #7.
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Mark Williams in the second round?
What’s the strain of the month big dog? I want some of that
 
blazerfan11 said:
These are catch-and-shoot stats for player with 3 or more total 3-point attempts for the regular season. #1 was Anfernee Simons. If the Blazers can get him the ball often for catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, that backcourt could be really good.
View attachment 47673
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Yup Ant is absolutely deadly on catch and shoot, significantly better than MeJ and he also is a vastly, vastly better passer. If his defense can get to average or above that backcourt could be the deadliest since Klay and Steph and should be better than CP3 and Booker as soon as next year (cumulative Dame>> Booker and Ant >>>aging CP3).
 
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42N8Bounce said:
Since we're getting closer to the draft, I thought I'd post a few of my charts that look at some draft history/trends:

Here's a look at all of the Blazers draft choices over the years. The x-axis is the draft pick number, and the y-axis is the Win-Share for the player drafted. I did this a few years ago, so some of the active and newer picks may not be up to date. The solid line is the average WS for the league for that pick number.

View attachment 47712

The Blazers have found some gems over the years (over the line), and quite a few duds (under the line).
Note: Oden was not the Blazers worst #1 pick (based on WS). Do you know who was?

Here's a fun little analysis of the expectation at each draft pick. The x-axis is the draft pick, and the y-axis is the percent chance of drafting an all-star or starter. I defined a starter as a player that starts over half of their career games.

View attachment 47713

I did this chart quite a few years ago, so it definitely fluctuates. But it gives you a good general idea of what to expect from each draft position. The Blazers drafting at #7 this year have about a 70% chance of getting a solid starter, and about a 14% chance of nabbing an all-star.

With all of that said, here are my preferences for this year:
At the #7 spot:
- Keegan Murray
- Tari Eason
- Jalen Duren
- AJ Griffin

Potential second rounders;
- Mark Williams
- Walker Kessler
- Kendall Brown
- Wendell Moore

I hope the Blazers don't trade the #7 pick, especially for Grant. He's a good player and all, but he's not the missing piece to get us over the top and contend. We need to start building for the future. I think we're going to have a few nice options there at #7.
Click to expand...
What is Bill Walton's Win-Share?
 
42N8Bounce said:
Since we're getting closer to the draft, I thought I'd post a few of my charts that look at some draft history/trends:

Here's a look at all of the Blazers draft choices over the years. The x-axis is the draft pick number, and the y-axis is the Win-Share for the player drafted. I did this a few years ago, so some of the active and newer picks may not be up to date. The solid line is the average WS for the league for that pick number.

View attachment 47712

The Blazers have found some gems over the years (over the line), and quite a few duds (under the line).
Note: Oden was not the Blazers worst #1 pick (based on WS). Do you know who was?

Here's a fun little analysis of the expectation at each draft pick. The x-axis is the draft pick, and the y-axis is the percent chance of drafting an all-star or starter. I defined a starter as a player that starts over half of their career games.

View attachment 47713

I did this chart quite a few years ago, so it definitely fluctuates. But it gives you a good general idea of what to expect from each draft position. The Blazers drafting at #7 this year have about a 70% chance of getting a solid starter, and about a 14% chance of nabbing an all-star.

With all of that said, here are my preferences for this year:
At the #7 spot:
- Keegan Murray
- Tari Eason
- Jalen Duren
- AJ Griffin

Potential second rounders;
- Mark Williams
- Walker Kessler
- Kendall Brown
- Wendell Moore

I hope the Blazers don't trade the #7 pick, especially for Grant. He's a good player and all, but he's not the missing piece to get us over the top and contend. We need to start building for the future. I think we're going to have a few nice options there at #7.
Click to expand...

Quality work!

Is the win shares posted what they were at based on college games when drafted? Or their win share to date after being drafted?
 
Safe guess is we draft Daniels if we keep the pick. But I’m guessing Cronin would rather trade for OG. Interestingly enough, Daniels makes A LOT of sense for Toronto. Wonder if that’s related somehow.
 
Scalma said:
Safe guess is we draft Daniels if we keep the pick. But I’m guessing Cronin would rather trade for OG. Interestingly enough, Daniels makes A LOT of sense for Toronto. Wonder if that’s related somehow.
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Toronto and Cleveland were the only two playoff teams who met with DD at the combine.

But it's wild there are some mocks I saw today that had Daniels at 4 and 5. His rise has been meteoric. If that really were to happen, I'd want to just keep 7 and take whoever falls to us as a result.
 
Maybe Ant gets that done. Not Keon. Then we have to hope Keon becomes something like Ant and Keegan becomes an all star
 
illmatic99 said:
Toronto and Cleveland were the only two playoff teams who met with DD at the combine.

But it's wild there are some mocks I saw today that had Daniels at 4 and 5. His rise has been meteoric. If that really were to happen, I'd want to just keep 7 and take whoever falls to us as a result.
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I'm fully convinced it's going to be Sharpe. The intrigue of the unknown has elevated him, but I don't think that's going to hold through June.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
I'm fully convinced it's going to be Sharpe. The intrigue of the unknown has elevated him, but I don't think that's going to hold through June.
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he was the number one player out of high school for a reason, and he’ll probably do well in individual workouts. He’s probably the biggest risk/reward guy. You could potentially be getting the best player in the draft picking outside of the top 3. The intrigue of that should keep him high on teams boards imo.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
I'm fully convinced it's going to be Sharpe. The intrigue of the unknown has elevated him, but I don't think that's going to hold through June.
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I'm fully convinced that if Sharpe with all of his upside is available at 7 that other GMs will be falling all over themselves to get him from us. Maybe that should be a sign that we should just keep him because he might have the best possibility to become an MVP in this draft. That being said we are building around Dame, so unless he really impresses us and shows that he can contribute on both ends to winning right away we might want to hear out those other GMs and take the best offer.

On another note, Patrick Balwin could be a huge steal in the second round.
 
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