Wow, The Basketball Public Has Bailed Early On Oden

[ABM]

From: MVN - Bucks Diary

I was finishing Charley Rosen's fairly interesting article about the state of NBA's big men (he actually had an unusually fair, sort of correct assessment of Bucks C Andrew Bogut... and I think his theory about why so many big men don't play like big men is dead on) when I noticed a FoxSports.com poll asking which big man had a brighter future, Lakers C Andrew Bynum or Blazers C Greg Oden. No surprise, Bynum won by a landslide.

But why has the basketball public turned so quickly against Greg Oden, a center many considered a high impact player coming out of college? Is it because of his knees? Is it because he has not met their image of a dominant big man? What is it?

As I have chronicled in the past, Oden actually had a very productive rookie season. In fact, he was much more productive overall than Lakers C Andrew Bynum. Lets compare their statistics using each player's Marginal Win Score calculated according to the statistics provided by 82games.com on Bynum's "Production by Position" page and Oden's similar page. Before we get to overall MWS48 stats, though, lets break the metric down into the component parts that each player respectively dominates. First Marginal Effective Scoring, Bynum's strength, and then Marginal Rebounding, Oden's strength...................

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

From: MVN - Bucks Diary

It was last season. But go back to the Houston series. We want to boast about his future. But the fact is all the basketball world has to base their info on is what they seen out of him last year. And in the Houston series, he was a whole lot of nothing.

Oden is going to have to fix this himself if he has it in himself. I'd like to believe, I think it's more hope than anything, that he will fix it. But we won't know anything until he steps foot on the floor and makes it happen

I still have doubt that a guy can change THAT MUCH in just a four or five month span.

 

[BBert]

I for one have not bailed on G.O. If he stays healthy, he will be better than Bynum.

Period.

 

[barfo]

an internet poll showed more love for a laker than a blazer? hard to imagine.

barfo

 

[MIXUM]

its make or break time for oden. no excuses this year.

by this time next year... we should no wether hes legit or a major mistake.

No more injured excuses. If he goes down again... hes injury prone. sorry.

 

[Idog1976]

its make or break time for oden. no excuses this year.

by this time next year... we should no wether hes legit or a major mistake.

No more injured excuses. If he goes down again... hes injury prone. sorry.

Does that make Bynum a glassman? Seeing as he had two major knee injuries in two seasons...

To the OP I have no doubt Oden will be a dominant force, it's just a matter of time and health.

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

Does that make Bynum a glassman? Seeing as he had two major knee injuries in two seasons...

To the OP I have no doubt Oden will be a dominant force, it's just a matter of time and health.

He's had his moments where he looked like a guy that could just unload. It's those moments that make me think and believe he has a great future in this league.

As a dominant big guy.

 

[BenDavis503]

an internet poll showed more love for a laker than a blazer? hard to imagine.

barfo

I know, right?! lol

Bynum has also played 213 games to Odens 61 and has been in the league since 2005. Lets compare their stats once Greg plays 213 games.

Hey Maxi... did you know Oden was born in Buffalo, NY? Pretty cool!

 

[Further]

All I am looking for is a small improvement from last year with a learning how to limit fouls. If he gets that far, then he will continue to grow. Big men, more then any other position are the slowest to blossom in the NBA. It takes a long time to learn how to move at NBA speeds for a center, especially one who is intent on playing D.

 

[Blaz06Draft]

I posted the following earlier this summer on BEdge:

ODEN: ONCE IN A GENERATION OFFENSIVE REBOUNDER

Greg Oden's rebounding is what sets him apart. If his rookie year is any indication, he is a once in a generation offensive rebounder.

According to basketball-reference.com, his rookie year offensive rebounding percentage was 15.7%. This is right up there with the rookie years of Rodman (15.6%) and Moses Malone (15.5%), and above Buck Williams (13.7%) and Barkley (12.5%). These are generally considered the greatest offensive rebounders in the last 35 years.

Dwight Howard led the league in offensive rebounds this year by a far cry, and he had 13.8%. So Greg's offensive rebounding rate was 14% better than this year's league leader.

This manifests itself not only as an individual stat. In fact, he not only grabs more offensive rebounds when he's in the game, the whole team grabs even more. So he doesn't "suck up" offensive rebounds from his teammates. Rather, he "makes his teammates rebound better" (related to "makes his teammates play better"), and to an amazing degree.

From basketballvalue.com come the team offensive rebounding stats. The average team has an offensive rebounding rate of 29%. These numbers are fairly clustered, with all but the best and the worst ranging from 26% to 31%. The best (except for Portland) is Philly at 33.4%.

Portland without Oden, is 32.5%, which would be 2nd in league. But with him, we rise far above the pack. With Greg in the lineup, our offensive rebounding rate is 38.7%! About half of this increase is due to Oden being better than Pryz (who is quite good himself) and half is due to his teammates rebounding better when he's in the game.

If you are into statistics, with Greg in the lineup, Portland is 5 standard deviations better than the average. For one individual player to make that much of a difference is truly amazing. It's such an incredible margin, and indicates that he is a once in a generation offensive rebounder.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

All I am looking for is a small improvement from last year with a learning how to limit fouls.

I have two thoughts about this (at least!)

1. If we have replacement refs, how will it affect Oden? Given how he appeared to be victimized by the refs we had, maybe it'll help him. But on the other hand, reffing big men is notoriously difficult, so maybe they'll be even worse.

2. Dwight Howard didn't seem to have the foul problems as a rookie that Oden had. But Howard wasn't actually that devoted to defense when he was a rookie. He wasn't asked to do all the things that Nate asked Oden to do (including completely inappropriate things like switch on to guards). Nate practically admitted that he was running Oden through the mill saying something like it'll help him down the road if he's forced to move his feet. So there's probably a reason Oden was much more foul-prone as a rookie than Dwight Howard, and it's not entirely Oden's fault. Now, will McMillan ease off and let Oden do less on D and more on O? Cue Kent Brockman.

 

[BrianFromWA]

If I may append to the last line of a very good post:

"...as an out-of-shape 21y/o rookie on a not-yet-recovered knee."

 

[Further]

I posted the following earlier this summer on BEdge:

ODEN: ONCE IN A GENERATION OFFENSIVE REBOUNDER

Greg Oden's rebounding is what sets him apart. If his rookie year is any indication, he is a once in a generation offensive rebounder.

According to basketball-reference.com, his rookie year offensive rebounding percentage was 15.7%. This is right up there with the rookie years of Rodman (15.6%) and Moses Malone (15.5%), and above Buck Williams (13.7%) and Barkley (12.5%). These are generally considered the greatest offensive rebounders in the last 35 years.

Dwight Howard led the league in offensive rebounds this year by a far cry, and he had 13.8%. So Greg's offensive rebounding rate was 14% better than this year's league leader.

This manifests itself not only as an individual stat. In fact, he not only grabs more offensive rebounds when he's in the game, the whole team grabs even more. So he doesn't "suck up" offensive rebounds from his teammates. Rather, he "makes his teammates rebound better" (related to "makes his teammates play better"), and to an amazing degree.

From basketballvalue.com come the team offensive rebounding stats. The average team has an offensive rebounding rate of 29%. These numbers are fairly clustered, with all but the best and the worst ranging from 26% to 31%. The best (except for Portland) is Philly at 33.4%.

Portland without Oden, is 32.5%, which would be 2nd in league. But with him, we rise far above the pack. With Greg in the lineup, our offensive rebounding rate is 38.7%! About half of this increase is due to Oden being better than Pryz (who is quite good himself) and half is due to his teammates rebounding better when he's in the game.

If you are into statistics, with Greg in the lineup, Portland is 5 standard deviations better than the average. For one individual player to make that much of a difference is truly amazing. It's such an incredible margin, and indicates that he is a once in a generation offensive rebounder.

Great post. Welcome to our boards. If this is an example of your posts, I hope you become a regular.

 

[DaRizzle]

Bynum > Oden

You know it, i know it, whole world knows it

Ill be sure to remind you come January....and June

 

[LittleAlex]

People are jumping off the Oden wagon WAY too soon. Even if he isn't dominant this season it won't be the end of the world. This is essentially his second NBA season. Big men take 3 to 4 years to get used to the speed of the NBA game. If in 2011 he hasn't progressed, then I will be pretty bummed.

 

[LittleAlex]

Bynum > Oden

You know it, i know it, whole world knows it

Ill be sure to remind you come January....and June

Only in injury count to knees.

Bynum gets hyped because he is a Laker, not because of his performance. If their positions were switched, everyone would be talking about Oden's rebounding and what a bust injury prone Bynum is.

Bynum and Oden will both be good, though very different, centers. Hopefully injuries don't derail both their careers.

 

[DaRizzle]

Only in injury count to knees.

Bynum gets hyped because he is a Laker, not because of his performance. If their positions were switched, everyone would be talking about Oden's rebounding and what a bust injury prone Bynum is.

Bynum and Oden will both be good, though very different, centers. Hopefully injuries don't derail both their careers.

You keep thinking that, see how that works for you...later this year Ill show you a C who is leading the league in FG%

 

[BenDavis503]

an internet poll showed more love for a laker than a blazer? hard to imagine.

barfo

I posted the following earlier this summer on BEdge:

ODEN: ONCE IN A GENERATION OFFENSIVE REBOUNDER

Greg Oden's rebounding is what sets him apart. If his rookie year is any indication, he is a once in a generation offensive rebounder.

According to basketball-reference.com, his rookie year offensive rebounding percentage was 15.7%. This is right up there with the rookie years of Rodman (15.6%) and Moses Malone (15.5%), and above Buck Williams (13.7%) and Barkley (12.5%). These are generally considered the greatest offensive rebounders in the last 35 years.

Dwight Howard led the league in offensive rebounds this year by a far cry, and he had 13.8%. So Greg's offensive rebounding rate was 14% better than this year's league leader.

This manifests itself not only as an individual stat. In fact, he not only grabs more offensive rebounds when he's in the game, the whole team grabs even more. So he doesn't "suck up" offensive rebounds from his teammates. Rather, he "makes his teammates rebound better" (related to "makes his teammates play better"), and to an amazing degree.

From basketballvalue.com come the team offensive rebounding stats. The average team has an offensive rebounding rate of 29%. These numbers are fairly clustered, with all but the best and the worst ranging from 26% to 31%. The best (except for Portland) is Philly at 33.4%.

Portland without Oden, is 32.5%, which would be 2nd in league. But with him, we rise far above the pack. With Greg in the lineup, our offensive rebounding rate is 38.7%! About half of this increase is due to Oden being better than Pryz (who is quite good himself) and half is due to his teammates rebounding better when he's in the game.

If you are into statistics, with Greg in the lineup, Portland is 5 standard deviations better than the average. For one individual player to make that much of a difference is truly amazing. It's such an incredible margin, and indicates that he is a once in a generation offensive rebounder.

I remember reading this post. Great post man.

Bynum > Oden

You know it, i know it, whole world knows it

Ill be sure to remind you come January....and June

Sure. You know if we offered Oden for Bynum you would take it. Bynum is such a piss porr shitty attitude little bitch though (typical for LA). I would take Joel over him any day. Let alone, Oden.

 

[DaRizzle]

Sure. You know if we offered Oden for Bynum you would take it.

You are delusional...Not for a second would I even consider that

Bynum is such a piss porr shitty attitude little bitch though (typical for LA). I would take Joel over him any day. Let alone, Oden.

piss poor shitty attitude...really, thats news to me. The only thing Ive ever heard him bitching about is wanting more playing time...thats a good thing

 

[DaRizzle]

If his rookie year is any indication,

there is your flaw in logic right there....if improvement was constant then New Orleans would have won the 'ship last year

 

[Wheels]

there is your flaw in logic right there....if improvement was constant then New Orleans would have won the 'ship last year

I dunno about that last part.. if New Orleans was coming off a major surgery, and were rookies.. then yes I'd say that was the same. I'm not Jumping all over you though Rizzle, youre one of my favorite Laker fans.

 

[PapaG]

As previously mentioned, the Houston series was disappointing for Oden, no matter how you spin it. When I sit back now and look at his regular season, it's clear that all he needs to do is learn how to limit his fouls and stay in the game. Things positive that jump out at me:

1) He's an elite rebounder, right now.
2) He's the best offensive rebounding center in the NBA, right now.
3) He is an extremely efficient scorer and is a plus in PER when on the court.
4) He is one of the 5 most physically imposing players in the league, right now.
5) His offensive game is not as limited as I gave him credit for last season. While he isn't ready to hit 15' jumpers from the field, he will be much better on his jump hooks with some added elevation this season (assuming he has more lift this year).

The only real negatives for me:

1) The fouls. Natch, the silly fouls. Just stop putting a hand on the opponent's waist when he is shooting or driving. Meet him at the rim or give up a few points now and then.
2) The Houston series. I'm still not quite sure what happened to him there, but he was a complete non-factor. The bright spot on this is that playing center seems to be more of an art than any position outside of PG. I remember Olajuwan dominating Shaq in the early '90s, and Hakeem came into the league a very unpolished player. After years of practice, he became one of the greatest all-around centers in history.
3) I know this is a subjective negative, but Oden seemed at times to be very down on himself. Whether this is because the media was lying, or my eyes were deceiving me at times while watching games, but at times Oden's body language seemed a bit detached from the game. In other words, he just seemed aloof to what was going on around him at times. As the season progressed, this was less noticeable to me, and even in the Houston series, it seemed to me that Oden was pressing more than him not caring.

So, in other words, there is hope to be seen in the results from last season.

 

[DaRizzle]

how dare you disagree with me!

If I disagree with you...It is because you are wrong

 

[Wheels]

how dare you disagree with me!

If I disagree with you...It is because you are wrong

but I hadnt chimed in yet for you to disagree

 

[Further]

I have two thoughts about this (at least!)

1. If we have replacement refs, how will it affect Oden? Given how he appeared to be victimized by the refs we had, maybe it'll help him. But on the other hand, reffing big men is notoriously difficult, so maybe they'll be even worse.

2. Dwight Howard didn't seem to have the foul problems as a rookie that Oden had. But Howard wasn't actually that devoted to defense when he was a rookie. He wasn't asked to do all the things that Nate asked Oden to do (including completely inappropriate things like switch on to guards). Nate practically admitted that he was running Oden through the mill saying something like it'll help him down the road if he's forced to move his feet. So there's probably a reason Oden was much more foul-prone as a rookie than Dwight Howard, and it's not entirely Oden's fault. Now, will McMillan ease off and let Oden do less on D and more on O? Cue Kent Brockman.

1) I really don't know. I was thinking about this very issue, and I came to the decision that it can't be worse than last year. A lot comes down to keeping guards out of the paint. This is why I am such a proponent of Bayless. Last year, he seemed the only PG that was having any luck keeping in front of his man, although he had bad issues trying to help others. Batum and Webster need to concentrate on closing off lanes if nothing else, then just to help Oden.

2) I think you nailed it with the D and howard. Oden plays very tight D for a big man, and also is always bodying for rebounds. He also switches nonstop with LMA for the other big, or more often with Blake... when a guard breaks through. This makes oden very exploitable from an opponent wanting to draw fouls.

 

[Further]

DaRizzle, I would love to lay down an Oden v Bynum bet of some kind this year. I know that Bynum is better at the moment, so the bet would be regarding the second half of the season. If you want to come up with some parameters, let me know. Sig? Avatar? up to you, but the idea would be better player over 2nd half of season. But we have to base it on something concrete.

 

[Wheels]

DaRizzle, I would love to lay down an Oden v Bynum bet of some kind this year. I know that Bynum is better at the moment, so the bet would be regarding the second half of the season. If you want to come up with some parameters, let me know. Sig? Avatar? up to you, but the idea would be better player over 2nd half of season. But we have to base it on something concrete.

it BETTER not be getting rid of his sig.. I'll lay that ground rule right there!

 

[Wheels]

sorry guys about the sig throwing the print off.. I'll get rid of it when I'm off work and find a new one. *sniff* I'm gonna miss you old buddy sig!

 

[DaRizzle]

DaRizzle, I would love to lay down an Oden v Bynum bet of some kind this year. I know that Bynum is better at the moment, so the bet would be regarding the second half of the season. If you want to come up with some parameters, let me know. Sig? Avatar? up to you, but the idea would be better player over 2nd half of season. But we have to base it on something concrete.

Its on like Donkey Kong...you think of some stuff...ill do the same

 

[oldmangrouch]

You keep thinking that, see how that works for you...later this year Ill show you a C who is leading the league in FG%

So...you'll be posting a picture of Dwight Howard? Whatever floats your boat.