Even if the next MJ gets drafted at 14, I won't blame Olshey or the coach/players for wanting to make the playoffs instead. I'm reminded of the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20". Did I think we were gonna win the championship this year? No. Did I think things would be looking better than they are? Yes. But I still am glad we made the playoffs rather than keeping our 1st round pick.
You can guess, and sometimes with great accuracy, but ultimately you cannot know the answer to something without experience and observation. It's John Locke's claim that knowledge is empirical - in that it comes from experience. That's basically to say you can't know what's going to happen until it happens... Which happens to be why skipping rocks across a river is so awesome.