Here are my thoughts, heading into the draft. This is not really a big board or ranking so much as an evaluation of players that I like or who have been discussed extensively. It's mostly to point and laugh at in a few years so you can relax before taking out the pitchforks.
I will say that, if given free reign to trade the entire roster except Shaedon Sharpe and various other assets for picks, I'd take Sheppard at #3, Williams at #7, and trade for Edey if it is clear he'll be unavailable at #14. Otherwise, if Edey isn't available, I'd take Ware at #14. Then, try to get Jonathan Mogbo with a second rounder.
Either way, this draft isn't as weak as the naysayers say it is and I think it'll be an average draft, with 1-2 Hall of Fame caliber players, 2+ 'regular' All-Stars that notch anywhere from 1-5x All Star games, and 2+ borderline All-Stars.
Think 2006 (Roy, Aldridge...Rondo, Millsap, Lowry....Gay, Reddick, Bargnani) or 2015 (KAT, Booker.....Porzingis, D'Lo.....Turner, Oubre, Rozier)
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Reed Sheppard - The darling of statistical models and advanced stats, I think Sheppard's game is similar to Edey in that it was more ideal for a previous era but due to his efficiency and due to his IQ and feel for the game, he's still going to have a tremendous impact in the modern NBA. Excellent three point shooting, good rebounding for his size, solid handles that can improve, high IQ on both ends, elite steal instincts (2.5 spg being on par with Payton, Stockton, CP3, Rondo), strong court vision, playmaking potential, and a willingness to learn and improve.
I think he ends up as a more intelligent and more efficient Mike Bibby. If he maxes that potential out, would it be absurd or sacrilegious to say he can be the modern Logo? Some people have already used Curry and Nash as retroactive comparisons for the late great Jerry West and they also apply it go Sheppard. As such, I don't think it's ridiculous to think it's possible.
Now, it'd take tremendous growth and a dominant demeanor, which we did see flashes of from Sheppard, but it's a tall order so I won't try to guess how likely that'll be. Nonetheless, due to these factors, I think Sheppard should be the #1 pick and is my candidate for the Hall of Fame caliber player for this class.
Floor: Kirk Hinrich////Median: Mike Bibby with better shooting////Ceiling: Jerry West
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Nikola Topic - That he can hit 87FT% should bode well for his overall 3pt shooting. Knows how to utilize his body to get to the rim, at will, and create his own shot. Efficiency+shot creation is a winning combination for a guard, especially with playmaking and ball handling being part of the mix. Knee injury is a concern but even then, his game should be relegated to running and shooting 3s. At the least, this might make him like Evan Fournier. But if he is able to put it together and stay healthy, he's much more efficient and talented than Fournier was, coming into the league. Like the #44 that he adopts, he has a Drazen Petrovic type game and demeanor to him and if you want to say Jokic is a repeat of Sabonis, we might say Topic has Drazen 2.0 potential.
Floor: less athletic, post-injury Rudy Fernandez////Median: Evan Fournier////Ceiling: Drazen Petrovic
It really depends on how bad his knee injury is. I think that if he fully recovers, he reaches his ceiling due to his strong efficiency, quickness, and shot creation skills. A major IF, essentially, but we've seen players like Embiid and MPJ pan out so it's not impossible. Unfortunately, Embiid isn't often fully healthy and MPJ won't likely meet his former potential, either.
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Zaccharie Risacher - Athletic in a fluid and quick burst type of way rather than an explosive athlete, Risacher possesses the tools to be a well rounded two way forward due to his solid length, shooting form, and potential playmaking skills. His weakness is that he isn't as consistent as he could be and tends to be limited in decision making skills despite possessing natural gifts. As it stands, he could be an All-Star but the talent will be limited by his mentality. For example, his play later in the season was not as dominant as it was previously so his stock has obviously dropped.
Floor: Darius Bazley////Median: Fluid Harrison Barnes////Ceiling: more athletic Glen Rice
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Donovan Clingan - His offensive footwork and skills remind me of Brad Daugherty, in that he is fundamentally sound and has good size/mobility for his frame. And like Daugherty (or Tim Duncan, who drew comps to Daugherty), he tends to score in a quiet manner rather than a flashy one. Defensively, his talent is similar to Kessler and Gobert that he should do fine on that end. If I were to sell you on a Rudy Gobert that has 15-30% better offense, with 15% less defense, would you take it? I think he's worth being a Top 5 selection and between Sarr and Risacher (the other projected top picks), he's probably the better pick at #1 for the Hawks. Maybe that's an All-Star or maybe it's a Wendell Carter Jr. tier player. Either way, he's bound to succeed in the NBA.
Hybrid: Brad Daugherty offense/Gobert-lite defense
......does that simply mean DeAndre Ayton, when given higher usage%? Productive but maybe not super? Also not as good of a FT shooter as Ayton. Still will have an impact, though.
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Alex Sarr - Teams are intrigued by Alex Sarr's mobility and defensive potential, perhaps as a way to counter Wembanyama in the coming years. He also has playmaking skills and the potential to be a good shooter due to his wingspan and shooting form. However, nothing is a guarantee. Comparisons to JJJ and Evan Mobley, I do not see. He can reach early versions of those players, someday, but he is not as physical or as offensively talented of a prospect as those two were. The major reason for this is due to his lack of ball handling. If you don't have it by the time you enter the NBA, it's very likely never going to reliably serve you in the NBA. Players either have it and tighten up or they don't have it and can only utilize it in bursts.
Now, I don't think he's necessarily a 'bust' due to his natural defensive instincts but due to weak interior FG% and lack of ball handling, I consider him not as impactful as people hope.
Hybrid: Modern Emeka Okafor/Jonathan Isaac hybrid.
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Zach Edey - Passes the traditional center threshold I use, alongside Clingan, who also passed. Traditional Freshman Centers numbers above "12/8.4 on 56+FG% Per 28 MPG" are historically elite and exceptional. Eye test, he looks good too, even if he is less mobile than people want. If he does, indeed, possess a three point game, expect Edey to be a massive offensive multiplier for his team. On a team with guards that can shoot, he'll be able to thrive due to their spacing and due to his ability to generate second chance opportunities. I think the Spurs would be wise to acquire him at #8.
Exemplifies various great traditional centers. I don't know that he'll meet this projection but he has various shades of previous players before him.
Unicorn Hybrid: Shades of Yao Ming footwork, Ewing's power, Eaton type defense, unblockable hook shot not seen since Kareem.
I think the NBA isn't ready for Zach Edey. Even if his time on the court ends up being limited, his role will generate a tremendous net positive regardless of whether he's starting or coming off the bench. You draft Edey as an impact multiplier, simple as that.
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Ron Holland - Not as good of a shooter as teams hoped for but his athleticism and decent wingspan should help him in the NBA. His All-Star potential will be limited by his dependence on the ball and his lack of shooting. I think these things can be overcome but it'll require a different mentality. Otherwise, you cannot teach ballhandling, which he can do. It's just a matter of....can he improve? If so, he might be able to notch a few All-Star games but I don't see him becoming a dominant wing/forward. I personally expect him to struggle for a few years that, if he doesn't love basketball enough, he'll fizzle out. But if he does enjoy basketball and works hard, his natural talent and athleticism should propel him to having a solid career.
Floor: Cam Reddish///Median: Post-injury MKG///Ceiling: Rudy Gay
I do expect him to be much closer to his ceiling but with no guarantee of reaching it. He should still be a fine pick, I think.
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Stephon Castle - Defensive stalwart and a player with more offense than others realize, who simply wasn't able to showcase it due to playing on an historic NCAA championship team.
Nonetheless, his offense is limited and I don't know how much it can grow. At some level, you're looking at a less athletic but more fluid RJ Barrett. But he can just as easily be a Marcus Smart tier version of that. He does have some Jimmy Butler type moves where he can power his way to the rim by backing up players and move in smoothly for a lay up. If his three point game and playmaking are able to improve, he has good potential.
Median: Marcus Smart with slightly more offense///Ceiling: Joe Johnson/RJ Barrett hybrid
I think he'll be closer to his median but still above it.
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Dalton Knecht - Demonstrated himself to be a premiere scorer in college, he has excellent shooting and scoring capability due to his ability to attack from all over the court and his ability to use his strength to his advantage, on and off-ball. His main problem is lack of defense. Despite having solid handles to move around, his playmaking is also limited. Then, there's the issue of age which limits his overall potential.
Floor: Adam Morrison////Median: Bogdan Bogdanović //// Ceiling: Buddy Hield
I don't see much of a high ceiling for him but I see has a steady roleplayer for a team that might need shooting off the bench or a team that can cover his defensive weaknesses in exchange for off ball shooting. Klay might be a high end comparison but his FT% was never as good as Klay's was that it makes it difficult to believe he can achieve that level
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Cody Williams - A fluid two-way wing with playmaking potential. Excellent in transition and elite at the rim with potential to be a strong three point shooter. His ball handling exists but needs to tighten up so that he can add a pull-up jumper to his arsenal. Otherwise, due to his combination of selflessness, off ball movement, and good shot selection, he has strong potential to make an impact on a team without being a main scorer. Then, if he does figure out scoring, it makes him a key player on a contender.
As such, I think he has potential to be this draft's Paul George. By that, he can be a wing/forward that has an all-around game. Likewise, there is almost always an All-Star or borderline All-Star found in the 7-14 range and I simply believe he has potential for it due to his mature mentality and raw talent. Much of this talent was concealed by injuries and by the fact that he had to play with two players who limited his point forward potential.
Otherwise, if not, he'll forever be a useful player that shows flashes of All-Star potential but it never materializes. Darius Miles or De'Andre Hunter, for example, are these types where they can notch 15-18ppg Per 36.
Floor: Marvin Williams////Median: Darius Miles/De'Andre Hunter hybrid////Ceiling: Paul George/better Jerami Grant
Statistical models don't favor Williams for whatever reasons but I do think his ability to impact the game goes beyond stats. If he had stayed in college, for example, I think he would explode next year and look better on future statistical models. Also is very mature and open to improving.
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Matas Buzelis - He has talent but lacks consistency, particularly due to his shooting. At some level, he can be as impactful as Brandon Miller was in college but it might be unlikely that he reaches it due to his reputed 3pt shooting being based on an outlier year rather than the various performances prior to that or after.
Perhaps this was the problem of sharing the spotlight with Ron Holland, as he was not able to fully utilize his strengths. Or perhaps he is simply limited in his output. Either way, the comparisons to Franz Wagner, I do not see.
Floor: Mario Hezonja with better defense////Median: Nic Batum/more athletic Kyle Anderson hybrid////Ceiling: Brandon Miller/Gordon Hayward hybrid
More likely to be at the median due to his full range of skills. Then, if he can eventually figure his shooting out, you should see him as a solid starter like the median comps have been in the NBA.
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Tidjane Salaun - Athletic and lanky French prospect with smooth shooting stroke. Incredibly raw and lacking in other skills beyond his current camping and sniping reputation.
Not able to develop strong comps since he's simply that raw......Floor: Taller Martel Webster////Ceiling: Michael Porter Jr.
I still view him as capping out as a modern Travis Outlaw, where he'll be able to take a few dribbles and hit a near unguardable jumper while catching lobs, here and there, or dunking it with authority when given a wide berth. Outlaw wasn't skilled enough to do much else as he lacked both good shot creation and stronger go-to moves.
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Devin Carter - He has generated buzz in recent months due to his high motor and defensive prowess. I'm not as sold on his offense since it seems pretty limited, especially for an older player. However, he has good IQ and the capability to move around the court, whether in transition or off ball, that it should benefit teams to have him as a back up guard. Think Jose Alvarado or Gary Payton Jr.
More athletic Patty Mills with better defense OR Bruce Brown with more defensive potential is what I'd compare him to.
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Kel'el Ware - I feel he's closer to Evan Mobley as a comp than Alex Sarr. While there are questions of his motor, I'm not sure it's as big of a deal as stated. Naturally, he'll probably never be a dominant big man but he can be an impactful one and I think pinning negative labels on him is not helpful due to that facet.
Like a Channing Frye, Skal Labissiere, or Lamarcus Aldridge, that complaint is one that tends to get applied to player archetypes like this. And I view him as that type of player except modernized to be more mobile due to his high reach, strong footwork, and natural athleticism for a big man.
Of course, unlike a Frye or Skal, his wingspan is several inches longer and as such, he has better two way potential. The 7'2" wingspan on a lanky PF isn't that great.....Ware is 7'5"-7'7" and closer to Aldridge, in that sense.
Then, his strong frame and ability to power in reminds me of Jermaine O'Neal a bit. That he can notch blocks and play defense reinforces this. The only knock will be his ball IQ and, again, his 'motor'.
Floor: Skal Labissiere////Median: Channing Frye/Nic Claxton hybrid////Ceiling: Lamarcus Aldridge/Jermaine O'Neal hybrid
I anticipate he'll be above the median but might not be able to reach the ceiling, at least, for 3-4 years...if he ever does reach it.
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Tyler Smith - Good frame and capable of being a stretch big. I wouldn't expect a star so much as a good roleplayer, possible starter. Think PJ Washington but with a bit of Rui Hachimura. Some solid defense, capable of spacing the floor, can get some second chance points but not a strong rebounder.
Comp: Less skilled PJ Washington w/ potentially better shooting
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Potential Sleepers? Jonathan Mogbo could be like a Rui Hachimura/Aaron Gordon mix and is my favorite sleeper pick. Bronny James might surprise people and be similar to Mo Williams, especially if he comes to terms with the limits of his talents and focuses on maximizing his current traits (handling, shooting, opportunistic playmaking). Adem Bona has gotten a bunch of hype and has good athleticism and footwork for his size. We'll see.
