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THE HCP

THE HCP

NorthEastPortland'sFinest
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Yesterday, I thought Greg's days were over in Portland. Then last night Marv said something on our broadcast that made me think. Marcus Camby didn't play in the NBA until he was 22. Greg is only 22 and I know dealing with the injuries is going to be a battle, but is it too crazy to think he could come back and help us like we all assumed he would?
 
I? still think Oden will be an NBA player when all is said and done. Dude has too much talent not to.

Hope it is with the Blazers.
 
i dont think there is anyway the blazers can let him walk... even though i think hes always gonna miss huge chunks of seasons. you simply cannot let go to okc, or another upcoming team.
 
I say resign him. The first MF surgery obviously didn't impact his skills that much...or if it did, I can live with the degraded skillset.
 
BrianFromWA said:
I say resign him. The first MF surgery obviously didn't impact his skills that much...or if it did, I can live with the degraded skillset.
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Yeah, that point has been resonating with me. Oden's entire NBA career has been after a MF surgery, and his on-court time has been excellent, especially when factoring in age and experience. That provides a lot of hope that this MF surgery won't kill his ability.

Whether he can stay healthy? The "one-offs" are mounting. At some point, you have to assume that staying healthy is a skill which Oden doesn't possess. But, until keeping Oden means costing the team an opportunity, I'd still keep him and hope.
 
HCP said:
Yesterday, I thought Greg's days were over in Portland. Then last night Marv said something on our broadcast that made me think. Marcus Camby didn't play in the NBA until he was 22. Greg is only 22 and I know dealing with the injuries is going to be a battle, but is it too crazy to think he could come back and help us like we all assumed he would?
Click to expand...

I totally agree. I think once the shock and disappointment dissipates, people will realize that this kid is only 22 years old! Kenyon Martin had microfracture surgery on both knees also and he still plays with passion and explosiveness. Even Marcus Camby had plenty of injury issues early in his career, albeit not microfracture surgery, and he's still playing at age 36 going on 37. Grant Hill was plagued by injuries and he managed to rehab and play at his age now. There has been much talk about Camby and Hill that suggests the injuries early in their careers may have prolonged their careers because they didn't put an exorbitant amount of mileage on their bodies.

If its true that Greg's right knee is stronger after the first microfracture surgery, hopefully this surgery will strengthen his left one too.
 
Perspective can be a wonderful thing. Thanks HCP for keeping it real.
 
gotta agree as well. At this point re-signing Greg is just as "Low Risk/High Reward" as it is for any other team who tries to sign him. Why not keep him. Like Minstrel said, until he costs us an opportunity.... and like others have said... Dont build around him or anything... but build like he wont be there, then if he does come back at, at least a serviceable level, then thats gravy.
 
I think all the gloom and doom about NOT signing him was because of a report about "some GM" saying "no way they'll sign him".
(a) That's bullshit, and
(b) If it was true, that's a GM that doesn't work for Paul Allen.
I was very pleased to hear Larry Miller come out and say it was very likely he'd be signed. I'd be a lot happier if he said it was 100% certain and wrote it on a legally binding contract in his own blood. But you take what you can get.
 
If Oden were entering the draft next season, even after all the surgeries, I think he'd still be a top 5 pick. Certainly a lottery pick. He still has too much upside to be taken any lower.

Oden is also like Matthews. One year of real NBA experience, and the team has to decide if it's worth ponying up an exorbitant amount of dough based on the productivity of that one season.

Matthews was at least healthy and he was cheaper (per year). But Oden had a much bigger impact over his one season (albeit stretched over four years because of injury) and quality big man prospects are almost always worth more than quality guard prospects. And Portland only has to commit a one year contract as opposed to the multiple years it gave Matthews.

And Oden is two years younger than Matthews. Which is kind of shocking to me, really.

In the overall balance sheet, I think if Portland is willing to pay Matthews $6 mil/year over 5 years based on one year of NBA production, it's probably willing to pay Oden $9 mil over one season based on one year of NBA production. After that, who knows. But I'm still optimistic he'll have some kind of NBA career.
 
mook said:
If Oden were entering the draft next season, even after all the surgeries, I think he'd still be a top 5 pick.
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Maybe... but to re-sign him you are committing a LOT more money most likely. We are in a really tough spot. We all know how valuable he could be if he could get on the court... but does anyone really think he will ever be healthy enough to play in the NBA? I'm pretty optimistic... but I would certainly be surprised he does.

I hope he makes an incredible comeback though... with us or another team... but I don't expect him to ever make an impact for us.
 
If I had Paul Allen's money, and owned the Blazers, I'd re-sign him (pending the results of his latest surgery of course). The problem is, unless I'm mistaken, if he accepts the QO, he is unrestricted the following year and can sign anywhere else he may choose? (Please correct me if that's wrong, as if I need to ask.) Some kind of incentive-laden deal that maintains his rights would be ideal.
 
The 22 year old thing definitely gives a different perspective. The problem is I always look at him and see a 52 year old man. :ohno:

Like I have said in the past. I went into a mode a long time ago where if we get something out of Greg Oden, that is awesome. If not, I can deal with that too. Right now if Greg plays again, it is a bonus, and nothing else. If he doesn't, that is the reality I am prepared for.
 
BBert said:
If I had Paul Allen's money, and owned the Blazers, I'd re-sign him (pending the results of his latest surgery of course). The problem is, unless I'm mistaken, if he accepts the QO, he is unrestricted the following year and can sign anywhere else he may choose? (Please correct me if that's wrong, as if I need to ask.) Some kind of incentive-laden deal that maintains his rights would be ideal.
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That's correct. I'd love some sort of incentive-laden deal, but anything more attractive to Oden that signing the QO would start to get into pretty serious levels of risk for Portland.

It's a hard question. It's funny...Oden may end up defining the careers of two Portland GMs.
 
I think this argument works against Greg.

He's only 22 years old and has had three major knee injuries since he was 19.

His body just seems so brittle.

*Surgery to repair a fractured hip. - 2000
*Torn ligament in his wrist - 2006
*Microfracture surgery - 2007
*Chipped left knee cap - 2008
*Fractured patella - 2009
*Microfracture surgery - 2010
 
Eventually the injuries will halt or at least not be as major. We know that the body parts that are primarily hurt are his knees, and now both of them have been "re-built". And at the very least, I think there's going to be at least 2-3 seasons where he'll play a good amount of games. His second year he played 61 and all the playoffs.
 
Hey said:
Eventually the injuries will halt or at least not be as major. We know that the body parts that are primarily hurt are his knees, and now both of them have been "re-built". And at the very least, I think there's going to be at least 2-3 seasons where he'll play a good amount of games. His second year he played 61 and all the playoffs.
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I don't think we know one way or the other if the injuries will halt or lessen. If anything, the fact that he has had a knee injury every one of the last four years is pretty damn discouraging.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Successful surgery done.

-Blazersedge
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The only way it should be deemed successful is if the words that followed that statement were "turns out it was just bad gas".
 
HCP said:
Yesterday, I thought Greg's days were over in Portland. Then last night Marv said something on our broadcast that made me think. Marcus Camby didn't play in the NBA until he was 22. Greg is only 22 and I know dealing with the injuries is going to be a battle, but is it too crazy to think he could come back and help us like we all assumed he would?
Click to expand...

Is it crazy to assume that he might come back and give us something? No. The idea that he can come back and "help us like we all assumed he would" is probably long gone.
 
He will play again.

But he will get hurt again.

The question is how much time there will be between the two all-too-certain events.
 
If he can return to "form" like he did with the first MF, he should be a fine player. I don't know if he can, but hopefully they'll figure out how to get him to stop getting injured. Now is the time to get the proper balance issues in check (if they haven't already).
 
Elvin Jones said:
He will play again.

But he will get hurt again.

The question is how much time there will be between the two all-too-certain events.
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No, the question is the extent of the injury. Every athlete gets hurt. It's the severity of the injury that makes it meaningful.
 
Oden's body of work:

2 seasons on the shelf.
1 "season" of 20 good games.
1 season of 60 inconsistent games.

If his body is that broken down at 22, why would you assume he will get healthier as he gets older? That is very counter-intuitive.
 
The term "successful" surgery always cracks me up........... so it's a success if what...... he doesn't die on the table?
 
I'm very calm and at peace with this. Like you said, he's so young. As long as he wants it, I see him having 10 productive years in this league and I do NOT want to see him spend those years in another uniform. I'm perfectly happy to wait at this point and I'll wait if he gets hurt again. He should be able to put together 11/10/3 seasons for us and that will make me happy.

Go Blazers
 
oldmangrouch said:
Oden's body of work:

2 seasons on the shelf.
1 "season" of 20 good games.
1 season of 60 inconsistent games.

If his body is that broken down at 22, why would you assume he will get healthier as he gets older? That is very counter-intuitive.
Click to expand...

Grant Hill played only 131 games over 6 seasons. The last season, including this one, he has played all but one game. And he was a significant contributor for a team that reached the WCF.
 
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