Aldridge for Thomas Revisited

[Denny Crane]

On draft day in 2006, the Bulls picked LMA #2 and then immediately traded him to Portland for Tyrus Thomas and some guy who isn't in the league anymore.

The Bulls were thinking that Thomas' upside was much higher and that he'd eventually be the better player.

It's 3 years later and how is it panning out?

Aldridge is 23, Thomas is 22.

Per 36 minutes:

LMA 81 games, 81 started (37.1 MPG), 48.4% FG, 78% FT (4/game), 7.3 RPG, 1.9 APG, .9 SPG, .9 BPG, 17.6 PPG, 19.1 PER

Thomas 79 games, 61 started (27.5 MPG), 45.1% FG, 78.3% FT (5/game), 8.4 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 2.5 BPG, 14.2 PPG, 15.9 PER

 

[RoyToy]

Is this a serious question?

 

[dreamcloud]

Great for the blazers.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I always thought TT would be a good player at some point, but I am ecstatic that we ended up with Aldridge. I was at the time also.

 

[Tince]

Is this a serious question?

If it's serious, the answer couldn't get much easier.

 

[Haakzilla]

...Ty.Thomas is starting to come into his own [he was a hell of a FA pickup in my fantasy league late last year]

 

[Minstrel]

Thomas isn't a bad player. He's become the yin to Outlaw's yang...a player who can be inconsistently great on one end of the floor but is really nothing special on the other end of the floor. It's defense for Thomas and offense for Outlaw. Combine their good qualities and you have quite a player. Maybe even a player almost as good as Aldridge!

 

[Tince]

...Ty.Thomas is starting to come into his own [he was a hell of a FA pickup in my fantasy league late last year]

Are you going to pick him before Aldridge next year? I don't think so.

 

[ucatchtrout]

Good find Denny.

Looks like Thomas is improving. I think we've yet to see how good either of these players can become. Glad though, that we ended up with LaMarcus.

 

[illmatic99]

I don't understand why the stats compared are PER 36. Thomas doesn't get the minutes because he's just not that good, and to extrapolate his stats for that PT is a false representation of his abilities.

 

[Natebishop3]

Thomas wouldn't do very well if he were starting next to Oden imo.

 

[Haakzilla]

Are you going to pick him before Aldridge next year? I don't think so.

...was not implying otherwise just saying, TT is finally starting to become the player he was "hyped" to be.

 

[Denny Crane]

It's info you guys can use when factoring in the Hinrich/Thomas type trades.

Thomas was playing terrible for the first 25 games or more. His FG% was below 30%, and he sure seems like a bonehead.

Then he got a lot of burn in the starting lineup and he certainly contributed some to the Bulls late surge to make the playoffs.

His season peaked in the playoffs against Boston when he nailed 3 or 4 outside shots during crunch time.

He's got the PF job to lose, it seems.

The Bulls have the equivalent of the college football option play with him. They can play him this season and see if he does start to match or pass Aldridge (he's obviously not as good now). If they like what they see, they make him the QO or extend him. If not, they let him walk and gain $6.5M in cap space, enough to allow the Bulls to sign two full boat UFAs.

It does look for certain that Thomas is better at stealing the ball, blocking shots, and rebounding. His turnovers kill his PER and demonstrate why he's such a bonehead. His 15.9 PER exceeded my expectations. The big question is can he make another step in improving his game, or will he outright make us regret the LMA deal as one of the worst in our team's history.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Not to say I don't like Thomas (he's a blocking machine for his size) but as far as being a "complete" player and able to produce at both ends of the court Aldridge has so far proven to be quite a bit more effective -- especially since he's counted on to be a second option, something Tyrus hasn't been either able to do or never given the opportunity to be.

 

[Denny Crane]

I don't understand why the stats compared are PER 36. Thomas doesn't get the minutes because he's just not that good, and to extrapolate his stats for that PT is a false representation of his abilities.

I normally don't look at per minute type stats as meaningful on their own. In this case, Thomas played 27 MPG, so extrapolating to 36 isn't that much of a reach. If you want to compare their output, you have to use some common number of minutes, and 36 is what Basketball-Reference provides. Provides, for this reason.

If he played 12 MPG, you'd have a point, IMO.

That Thomas started 61 games means he didn't pad his stats against 2nd units (which Minstrel never accounts for when talking up Oden, FWIW).

 

[dreamcloud]

Btw here are the actual season stats, since I thought the first post was actually that..

TT: 10.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG (1.9 OFF), 1.9 BPG, 1.0 APG

LA: 18.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG (2.9 OFF), 0.9 BPG, 1.9 APG

 

[Nikolokolus]

It's info you guys can use when factoring in the Hinrich/Thomas type trades.

Thomas was playing terrible for the first 25 games or more. His FG% was below 30%, and he sure seems like a bonehead.

Then he got a lot of burn in the starting lineup and he certainly contributed some to the Bulls late surge to make the playoffs.

His season peaked in the playoffs against Boston when he nailed 3 or 4 outside shots during crunch time.

He's got the PF job to lose, it seems.

The Bulls have the equivalent of the college football option play with him. They can play him this season and see if he does start to match or pass Aldridge (he's obviously not as good now). If they like what they see, they make him the QO or extend him. If not, they let him walk and gain $6.5M in cap space, enough to allow the Bulls to sign two full boat UFAs.

It does look for certain that Thomas is better at stealing the ball, blocking shots, and rebounding. His turnovers kill his PER and demonstrate why he's such a bonehead. His 15.9 PER exceeded my expectations. The big question is can he make another step in improving his game, or will he outright make us regret the LMA deal as one of the worst in our team's history.

I don't think that's very likely. Aldridge probably has a couple of all-star games in his future (provided he's still got room to improve) but Thomas could just as easily -- he's got tons of athleticism and aside from Scott Skiles the coaches he's toiled under don't exactly inspire much confidence as teachers.

 

[Denny Crane]

Btw here are the actual season stats, since I thought the first post was actually that..

TT: 10.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG (1.9 OFF), 1.9 BPG, 1.0 APG

LA: 18.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG (2.9 OFF), 0.9 BPG, 1.9 APG

What does it say if Thomas played 1 minute per game and LA 48 minutes per game?

 

[B-Roy]

What does it say if Thomas played 1 minute per game and LA 48 minutes per game?

Thomas is the greatest player....ever....ever

 

[Denny Crane]

Thomas is the greatest player....ever....ever

That might be true, but it also means that comparing overall season stats is apples/oranges.

Don't get me wrong, this whole time I've been thinking we got royally screwed in this deal, and there's no guarantee that Thomas will improve a lick from where he's at now. Though he does have a reputation of being a hard worker as well as being a bonehead.

 

[Minstrel]

That Thomas started 61 games means he didn't pad his stats against 2nd units (which Minstrel never accounts for when talking up Oden, FWIW).

I think that's generally overstated anyway, since teams don't bring in reserves as "units" and teams don't substitute at the same time. So there's no particularly good way to determine, a priori, exactly what competition a player faces just by role.

Now, it's true that a normal reserve probably plays a bit more against reserves than starters, due to coaches sometimes trying to give their starter a break when the other starter is out (but that's far from a rule)...but Oden wasn't used like a normal reserve. He started some of the games he played and even the games he didn't, he was often brought in early.

 

[STOMP]

I normally don't look at per minute type stats as meaningful on their own. In this case, Thomas played 27 MPG, so extrapolating to 36 isn't that much of a reach. If you want to compare their output, you have to use some common number of minutes, and 36 is what Basketball-Reference provides. Provides, for this reason.

If he played 12 MPG, you'd have a point, IMO.

That Thomas started 61 games means he didn't pad his stats against 2nd units (which Minstrel never accounts for when talking up Oden, FWIW).

Greg started far more games in his rookie year then he came off the bench. If that weren't the case, you'd be the one with a point... but thanks for sharing your opinion

STOMP

 

[Denny Crane]

I think that's generally overstated anyway, since teams don't bring in reserves as "units" and teams don't substitute at the same time. So there's no particularly good way to determine, a priori, exactly what competition a player faces just by role.

Now, it's true that a normal reserve probably plays a bit more against reserves than starters, due to coaches sometimes trying to give their starter a break when the other starter is out (but that's far from a rule)...but Oden wasn't used like a normal reserve. He started some of the games he played and even the games he didn't, he was often brought in early.

It's certain that if Oden comes off the bench 6-8 minutes into Q1 against Orlando, that's 6-8 minutes he didn't face Dwight Howard.

I didn't say Oden played exclusively against 2nd units, just that his stats may not translate to what he'd have done against 1st units as the starter.

 

[Tince]

What does it say if Thomas played 1 minute per game and LA 48 minutes per game?

Here's a list off the top of my head:

1) Your coach is a total idiot for not playing a guy who averages 10 points per minute, one minute a game
2) Thomas has the worst stamina is the game.
3) Thomas is a hot head and gets ejected after going off on teams for that one minute.
4) Thomas fouls out in 1 minute of every game.

Per/36 stats are ok, but total stats are more meaningful.

Greg's Per 36 minutes stats would indicate he had a great year, when in fact, he didn't.

 

[Minstrel]

It's certain that if Oden comes off the bench 6-8 minutes into Q1 against Orlando, that's 6-8 minutes he didn't face Dwight Howard.

Yes, but if Oden also plays fewer than starter minutes (which he did) then he could miss minutes that Howard played and still end up playing almost all his minutes against Howard. Due to playing fewer minutes than Howard.

I'm not saying that that's how it actually played out every game, but your logic doesn't prove or disprove what percentage of Oden's minutes were played against starters and reserves.

I didn't say Oden played exclusively against 2nd units, just that his stats may not translate to what he'd have done against 1st units as the starter.

It may not, but I think the difference between what his advanced numbers would look like as a "starter" or "reserve" who played the same number of minutes is pretty minimal. Ginobili also comes off the bench, but I think his PER pretty well encapsulates his value. It's possible that it doesn't, but I don't think total difference in quality of competition changes much, overall.

 

[Erroneous Subterfuge]

That might be true, but it also means that comparing overall season stats is apples/oranges.

Don't get me wrong, this whole time I've been thinking we got royally screwed in this deal, and there's no guarantee that Thomas will improve a lick from where he's at now. Though he does have a reputation of being a hard worker as well as being a bonehead.

Lol... what a ridiculous statement. If we're comparing the value of two players (which sure seems to be the point of this thread) then their actual season stats are a far better way to do so, as opposed to per 36 stats.

It's a pretty simple concept: Better players play longer. How is that apples/oranges? Per 36 is apples/oranges, since it's skewing reality.

Lamarcus was our second best player last year. He played big minutes and he was a huge part of opposing teams game plans. Defenses focused on shutting him down. Now while Tyrus improved, he's not to that level yet. That's probably why he only played 27 minutes a game.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Not meant as a joke:

Is TT a low post threat?

 

[Denny Crane]

Here's a list off the top of my head:

1) Your coach is a total idiot for not playing a guy who averages 10 points per minute, one minute a game
2) Thomas has the worst stamina is the game.
3) Thomas is a hot head and gets ejected after going off on teams for that one minute.
4) Thomas fouls out in 1 minute of every game.

Per/36 stats are ok, but total stats are more meaningful.

Greg's Per 36 minutes stats would indicate he had a great year, when in fact, he didn't.

Greg's per 36 minute stats are 14.8 PPG / 11.6 RPG / 1.9 BPG / 6.5 fouls per game.

David Lee's per 36 stats are 16.5 / 12.8 / .3 BPG

Looking at Oden's stats by opponent, he did best against Washington (15.5/12.0 per game), and feasted on teams like Toronto, OKC, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Memphis, Clippers, Warriors, Bulls, and Bobcats. He had terrible matchups against Orlando (2 points , 1 rebound, 4 PF in 11 minutes), New Jersey, Houston, Indiana, Dallas, and Sacramento.

 

[Denny Crane]

Not meant as a joke:

Is TT a low post threat?

Not really, but he does score a lot on dunks and putbacks.

 

[Denny Crane]

Lol... what a ridiculous statement. If we're comparing the value of two players (which sure seems to be the point of this thread) then their actual season stats are a far better way to do so, as opposed to per 36 stats.

It's a pretty simple concept: Better players play longer. How is that apples/oranges? Per 36 is apples/oranges, since it's skewing reality.

Lamarcus was our second best player last year. He played big minutes and he was a huge part of opposing teams game plans. Defenses focused on shutting him down. Now while Tyrus improved, he's not to that level yet. That's probably why he only played 27 minutes a game.

The first paragraph simple isn't true. Even PER has a per minute component to it exactly because it'd otherwise be apples/oranges comparison and the whole point of PER is to attempt (maybe not succeed) to come up with a value to compare guys regardless of minutes played or position.

If you have a guy averaging 4 APG in 42 MPG, and one averaging 4 APG in 21 MPG, who's the better assist guy?

I did post their MPG figures for all to consider, which is certainly a big factor in comparing the two.

I don't at all suggest Thomas is a better player. Just that he may become one sooner than we think.