Aldridge for Thomas Revisited

[Erroneous Subterfuge]

The first paragraph simple isn't true. Even PER has a per minute component to it exactly because it'd otherwise be apples/oranges comparison and the whole point of PER is to attempt (maybe not succeed) to come up with a value to compare guys regardless of minutes played or position.

Nothing you said even comes close to disproving anything in my first paragraph... Actual stats are a far better way to judge players than per36 and in no way is it comparing apples and oranges. That's just a fact, how can you even argue otherwise?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I'm waiting for the punchline...

TT would be a good bench player on a playoff team. He's a hustle player. A rich man's JYD.

 

[Denny Crane]

Nothing you said even comes close to disproving anything in my first paragraph... Actual stats are a far better way to judge players than per36 and in no way is it comparing apples and oranges. That's just a fact, how can you even argue otherwise?

It's not a fact, it's an assertion.

Gilbert Arenas scored 13 PPG this season. He sucks.

 

[Denny Crane]

Hell, who's a better scorer, a guy who scores a point per minute played or one who scores 2 points per minute played?

 

[Erroneous Subterfuge]

It's not a fact, it's an assertion.

No, actual. It's a fact. Now if I had said something like, "Per 36 has absolutely no value in judging players efficiency on the court" then you may have an argument. Sadly, that's not the case. All I said was actual stats show the value of a player far better than per 36.

You said actual stats are apples/oranges, that's laughable. The two players your comparing may be apples/oranges, but comparing their actual stats sure isn't.

Gilbert Arenas scored 13 PPG this season. He sucks.

Seriously? That's all you could come up with?

Gilbert played 2 games this year coming off of major injury. He has a history of a having a much higher production. Obviously this last year he did suck relatively. And?

You can take a two game sample size and make Steve Blake look better than Brandon Roy. What's that prove?

 

[Boob-No-More]

I'm not a big fan of per-36 stats in general. They represent a hypothetical condition - what a player would produce if he played 36 minutes. Truth is, we don't know. A guy who is used to playing 24 MPG, may get fatigued, or at least pace himself and conserve energy i he has to play 36 MPG. Thomas is an energy guy. Can he sustain that same level of energy if his minutes jump from 27 to 36 MPG? If he does play more minutes, and a assume a greater role on offense, opposing teams will start building their game plan around stopping him, etc. This could negatively impact his per-36 production. You don't really know how a guy will produce per-36 minutes over an entire season, until he actually averages 36 MPG or an entire season.

I prefer actual stats, because they represent EXACTLY what a player actually produced - no hypotheticals or extrapolations necessary. If Thomas was good enough to deserve 36 MPG, he'd be getting 36 MPG. He's not, and he doesn't. It's as simple as that. It's not like the Bulls have some all-star or future Hall of Famer eating up minutes in front of him. If he continues to improve, he'll get more minutes and then we can better judge his actual production against Aldridge's actual production.

BTW, Aldridge's per-36 numbers and PER were better all three of his seasons than what Thomas posted this year. He became a full-time starter his second season and his per-36 numbers were 18.3 pts/7.9 reb/ 1.7 blk with a PER of 18.5 during his second season. Thomas may eventually be as good as Aldridge (I doubt it as he lacks Aldridge's offensive skills), but he's currently at least two years behind Aldridge.

This wasn't the worst trade in Bulls history, or the worst draft, but Thomas and Kryhapa for Aldridge was a bad trade.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Greg's per 36 minute stats are 14.8 PPG / 11.6 RPG / 1.9 BPG / 6.5 fouls per game.

Rookie coming off microfracture knee surgery playing on the slowest paced team in the league.

David Lee's per 36 stats are 16.5 / 12.8 / .3 BPG

4th year player, healthy, playing on the 2nd fastest paced team in the league.

What's your point?

Looking at Oden's stats by opponent, he did best against Washington (15.5/12.0 per game), and feasted on teams like Toronto, OKC, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Memphis, Clippers, Warriors, Bulls, and Bobcats. He had terrible matchups against Orlando (2 points , 1 rebound, 4 PF in 11 minutes), New Jersey, Houston, Indiana, Dallas, and Sacramento.

Rookie big man = inconsistent. No surprise there. Again, I fail to see your point - much less what it has to do with Aldridge vs. Thomas. Was Thomas a rookie this year? No. Was he coming off microfracture knee surgery? No. So, what's the tie in between the Oden vs. Lee per-36 comparison and the Aldridge vs. Thomas debate?

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Hell, who's a better scorer, a guy who scores a point per minute played or one who scores 2 points per minute played?

Depends. How many minutes do they play? Chances are a guy who averages a point per minute that plays 36 MPG is a far better player than a guy who scores 2 point per minute but only averages 1 MPG.

So, who is a better scorer, the guy who averages 36 PPG, or the guy who averages 2 PPG?

This may be an extreme example, but I think it proves the point that per-36 numbers should be taken with a grain of salt and don't tell the whole picture.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

His 15.9 PER exceeded my expectations.

His PER is only slightly above the league average for all players. So, he's a slightly above average player in his 3rd season.

Aldridge's PER was 19.1. 20.0 is considered a borderline all-star. BTW, like Thomas, Aldridge got of to a slow start this past season. His PER over the last four months of the season was above 20.

So, you have two 3rd year players - one slightly above average and one near all-star level. Again not the worst trade ever, but not a good one.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

I didn't say Oden played exclusively against 2nd units, just that his stats may not translate to what he'd have done against 1st units as the starter.

Oden started 39 games and came off the bench 22 times. He played roughly 2/3 of his minutes against starters. His stats reflect his production against starters more than they do against back-ups.

BNM

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm not a big fan of per-36 stats in general. They represent a hypothetical condition - what a player would produce if he played 36 minutes. Truth is, we don't know. A guy who is used to playing 24 MPG, may get fatigued, or at least pace himself and conserve energy i he has to play 36 MPG. Thomas is an energy guy. Can he sustain that same level of energy if his minutes jump from 27 to 36 MPG? If he does play more minutes, and a assume a greater role on offense, opposing teams will start building their game plan around stopping him, etc. This could negatively impact his per-36 production. You don't really know how a guy will produce per-36 minutes over an entire season, until he actually averages 36 MPG or an entire season.

I prefer actual stats, because they represent EXACTLY what a player actually produced - no hypotheticals or extrapolations necessary. If Thomas was good enough to deserve 36 MPG, he'd be getting 36 MPG. He's not, and he doesn't. It's as simple as that. It's not like the Bulls have some all-star or future Hall of Famer eating up minutes in front of him. If he continues to improve, he'll get more minutes and then we can better judge his actual production against Aldridge's actual production.

BTW, Aldridge's per-36 numbers and PER were better all three of his seasons than what Thomas posted this year. He became a full-time starter his second season and his per-36 numbers were 18.3 pts/7.9 reb/ 1.7 blk with a PER of 18.5 during his second season. Thomas may eventually be as good as Aldridge (I doubt it as he lacks Aldridge's offensive skills), but he's currently at least two years behind Aldridge.

This wasn't the worst trade in Bulls history, or the worst draft, but Thomas and Kryhapa for Aldridge was a bad trade.

BNM

FWIW, I count 36 times Thomas played more than 27 minutes in a game, and I prefaced my first post by saying that I think it's reasonable to assume his numbers would translate to per 36. Within a span of 7 games (games 46-52), he put up 14/13 against Houston in 37 minutes, 15/10 against NOH in 30, 23/12 against Dallas in 45, 22/10 against Detroit in 41, 15/8 against Miami in 38, and 21/12 against Denver in 44.

The 27 MPG is an indication he's a bonehead (but getting better). He gets yanked for not running back on defense or jacking up a few quick jumpers in a row; not playing within the scheme of things the coach envisions.

I also think no one stat tells the whole story and provided a number of them (including the 27 minutes vs. 38 minutes) so everything could be considered in context.

Don't get the idea I'm being a homer about this. I think it was a horrible trade, especially considering the Bulls' frontcourt at the time and since, what Thomas has cost against the cap, and how LMA was and is a player who filled an obvious need. I think players (regardless of position) who have more TO than assists tend to be poor decision makers and have negative impact on the game.

The point behind this thread is that people seem to think the Bulls would throw him in as cap filler in some trade to get rid of Hinrich for lesser players. At this point, he's the equivalent of a graduating college senior. He turned from an outright bust into a servicable player partway through the season and has an actual chance of evening out the trade (or better, perhaps). The time for salary dump is over now that their prize FA is gone. They're not looking like contenders so they may as well play the guy for the last guaranteed season of his contract and see if he pans out.

 

[Denny Crane]

Oden started 39 games and came off the bench 22 times. He played roughly 2/3 of his minutes against starters. His stats reflect his production against starters more than they do against back-ups.

BNM

FWIW, when I've seen Oden play (maybe 10-15 games), he reminds me of a young Mutumbo. Raw on the offensive end, but a ready defender from the start.

 

[Ed O]

Greg's per 36 minute stats are 14.8 PPG / 11.6 RPG / 1.9 BPG / 6.5 fouls per game.

David Lee's per 36 stats are 16.5 / 12.8 / .3 BPG

P
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Ed O.

 

[LittleAlex]

Not really, but he does score a lot on dunks and putbacks.

So he is sort of like a defensive minded David Lee?

 

[Denny Crane]

P
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Ed O.

So you're saying that comparing season stats, even if both players played exactly the same minutes isn't exactly apples/apples.

I agree.

 

[Denny Crane]

So he is sort of like a defensive minded David Lee?

Nah, I think David Lee is considerably better than Thomas.

 

[Ed O]

So you're saying that comparing season stats, even if both players played exactly the same minutes isn't exactly apples/apples.

I agree.

I'm saying merely that the pace of the Knicks inflates raw stats for Knicks players and deflates raw stats for Blazers. You can generalize that to your statement, sure.

Ed O.

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm saying merely that the pace of the Knicks inflates raw stats for Knicks players and deflates raw stats for Blazers. You can generalize that to your statement, sure.

Ed O.

I happen to agree you should consider pace.

But wouldn't you think guys who play a higher pace game would get tired faster? Need more rest?