Are we still tanking?

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What should be the Blazers goal for next season?

  • Suck so bad we Hawk Tuah!

    Votes: 42 75.0%

  • Play-in or Bust!

    Votes: 11 19.6%

  • Championship baby!

    Votes: 3 5.4%
  • Total voters
    56
SlyPokerDog said:
NIL $$$ can come close to matching some rookie NFL contracts, they can't match NBA contracts, especially if Flagg is a protected Top 5 pick.
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Even if it exceeds the rookie scale contract, there is no way it can outweigh the benefit of starting the rookie scale clock earlier because Flagg's 2nd NBA contract is going to be where he makes his bread.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
NIL $$$ can come close to matching some rookie NFL contracts, they can't match NBA contracts, especially if Flagg is a protected Top 5 pick.
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Probably won't happen, but you never know. He might enjoy college life or maybe he gets injured and decides to stay one more year. It's not like he won't make 200 million in his career either way.
 
B-Roy said:
Even if it exceeds the rookie scale contract, there is no way it can outweigh the benefit of starting the rookie scale clock earlier because Flagg's 2nd NBA contract is going to be where he makes his bread.
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Definitely this. The numbers might look similar for this year but he'd potentially be giving up 50+ million per year of lost max contract years.
 
people are severely overestimating NIL amounts. It's crazy how somebody's wild-ass speculation becomes accepted reality.

to begin with, the biggest NIL deals are in football. Even the most lucrative NIL deals for basketball are around 1M; most are suspected to be less

if you assume Flagg can double that as a sophomore....hell, say he triples that amount, it would be around 3M. If he instead is the #1 pick that season, his rookie salary would be around 15M. And his 4 year 'guaranteed' rookie scale deal would be in the 63-65M range. NIL would be a drop in the bucket compared to that

and, as mentioned, it would delay his 2nd contract by a year. That's huge because in his 5th NBA season the salary cap could be 205M (10% smoothing increases each year). If he gets that 30% max deal coming off rookie scale, his 1st year salary could be over 60M. He could sign a 5 year deal well over 350M. In his first 9 years in the NBA he could earn 420M. That's just from salary. His endorsement deals from NBA exposure could be huge as well

he's not going to risk all that financial upside for a 2-3M NIL contract
 
illmatic99 said:
Kid is holding his own against the vets on the big team in Vegas right now by all accounts.

Ain't no way he stays in college.
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Never thought we'd see a Wemby level or prospect again so soon. I mean Flagg probably is just a hair below that level but he's at least at the once every 10 year generational level.

Is he a better prospect than Oden or Durant were? I'd say right now it appears clearly yes.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
Probably won't happen, but you never know. He might enjoy college life or maybe he gets injured and decides to stay one more year. It's not like he won't make 200 million in his career either way.
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That's like saying you never know the Blazers might win the title next season, anything can happen.

There is no way Flagg is staying in college, doesn't make any sense and the financial risk alone from injury/etc would be irresponsible for him and his family.
 
Hoopguru said:
14.5% out of 14 teams the best we could do.
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Really the aim needs to be to secure a bottom 5 record. That gives us 42-52% chance of top4 and 11-14% chance of #1.

It might be too hard to guarantee the worst record and that could have a negative impact on Scoot/Sharpe development. So I'm all for trying to get a high draft pick in a way that still has the focus of the season on their development as well as our other youth. But middling vets like Grant/Thybulle/Ayton/Ant/Timelord absolutely should not be prioritized for this season at all!

If we go on a run of wins we fall to #9 slot with a 4% or less chance of that top pick which would be a disaster.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
That's like saying you never know the Blazers might win the title next season, anything can happen.

There is no way Flagg is staying in college, doesn't make any sense and the financial risk alone from injury/etc would be irresponsible for him and his family.
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I agree a significant injury could cost him millions and a top draft position. But what if that same injury occurred this season in college? If it is going to cost him the money you allude to, why would he not consider staying an extra year in college to prove he is healthy?
 
Portland needs to finish in the bottom three as they all have a 14% chance at number one and a 52.1% chance of top three. Not finishing in the bottom three, when the team actually is unable to compete even as a mid level team would be negligent to the fans. Portland is a small market team. Over the entire life of the franchise they have proven that they can not lure an All NBA fee agent. They can only build through the draft. The goal should be get number one, settle for two. Three, four and five are expected as of today to be guards.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
I agree a significant injury could cost him millions and a top draft position. But what if that same injury occurred this season in college? If it is going to cost him the money you allude to, why would he not consider staying an extra year in college to prove he is healthy?
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Because he doesn't have to prove he is healthy. He will go number one, injured, like Embiid did. Hell, the Nets paid KD for an entire season to rehab knowing his achilles may never fully heal. They are all too big of prospects to pass up.
 
BIG Q said:
Because he doesn't have to prove he is healthy. He will go number one, injured, like Embiid did. Hell, the Nets paid KD for an entire season to rehab knowing his achilles may never fully heal. They are all too big of prospects to pass up.
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Maybe but I was responding to a post saying the financial risk alone from injury/etc would be irresponsible for him and his family.

Interesting that we have seen a few top college football players stay an extra year because they enjoy college life, but not many college basketball players....when the injury factor is much greater in football. (and doesn't have the same guaranteed contracts)
 
Pinwheel1 said:
Maybe but I was responding to a post saying the financial risk alone from injury/etc would be irresponsible for him and his family.

Interesting that we have seen a few top college football players stay an extra year because they enjoy college life, but not many college basketball players....when the injury factor is much greater in football. (and doesn't have the same guaranteed contracts)
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Injury risk is much more real in the NFL draft over NBA. A torn ACL is a much bigger red flag in the NFL Draft over the NBA. Unless you are a quarterback, the odds of getting huge money is far lower in the NFL. In the NBA, they are playing with Monopoly money. NFL players are truly jealous of the money thrown around by NBA teams for players that might play 10 minutes a night. High school basketball players are reclassifying their graduation year to get into the NBA ASAP.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
I agree a significant injury could cost him millions and a top draft position. But what if that same injury occurred this season in college? If it is going to cost him the money you allude to, why would he not consider staying an extra year in college to prove he is healthy?
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If he gets injured this year but can fully recover it's likely he still is a top3 pick and comes out.

If he isn't a top3 pick them it might be a harder decision he would need to make. That would be if it's an Achilles or major knee damage or something that makes his recovery more unknown to NBA teams.

It's certainly not impossible he has such an injury but it is extremely unlikely.
 
BIG Q said:
Portland needs to finish in the bottom three as they all have a 14% chance at number one and a 52.1% chance of top three. Not finishing in the bottom three, when the team actually is unable to compete even as a mid level team would be negligent to the fans. Portland is a small market team. Over the entire life of the franchise they have proven that they can not lure an All NBA fee agent. They can only build through the draft. The goal should be get number one, settle for two. Three, four and five are expected as of today to be guards.
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#4 is 12.5% or #5 is 10.5% so really anything in the bottom 5 is fine. Yeah I'd prefer that 14% but I think we should still play Scoot Sharpe the whole year and if they get some wins bumping us to #5 that's fine.
 
BIG Q said:
Because he doesn't have to prove he is healthy. He will go number one, injured, like Embiid did. Hell, the Nets paid KD for an entire season to rehab knowing his achilles may never fully heal. They are all too big of prospects to pass up.
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Embiid was the 3rd pick.
 
Phatguysrule said:
Maybe trade for some pick swaps?
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2025 pick swaps from a possible lottery team would be crazy valuable. Can't see the Blazers being able to get one of those for any of our vets.

A 2029-31 swap is something maybe we could get, would help a ton in a few years or help earlier getting more value in trades.
 
Time to tank hard. Watching the highlights of Flagg…he’s going to be number 1, 2 or 3. I say we trade Grant, Ant and Timelord (plus picks) to a team that will part with an unprotected 2025 1st:

Teams owning a 2025 1st (unprotected or 1-5 protected):

Boston
Brooklyn
Charlotte
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Detroit
Golden State
Houston
Indiana
LA Clippers
Memphis
Miami
Milwaukee
New Orleans
New York
OKC
Orlando
Philadelphia
Sacramento
San Antonio
Toronto
Utah
Washington

of which, I’ll predict the following to be 2025 Lottery teams:

Brooklyn
Charlotte
Chicago
Detroit
Golden State
LA Clippers
Memphis
Toronto
Utah
Washington

to which, I’ll predict the following to be with the worst records:

Brooklyn
Charlotte
Chicago
Detroit
Washington
(Portland will finish outside of the worst three teams)

My final worst three teams in 2025:

Brooklyn
Chicago
Detroit
Toronto (right on the edge)

We need to pry away one of these team’s 2025 1st picks in order to increase our chances at Flagg. I just don’t see Portland finishing with a worse record even tanking hard.

Send Ant, Grant and Timelord and one of our 2029 1sts to Chicago and take back
Ball, Levine and Buzelis, get back our own protected 2025 pick previously sent to the Bulls and their 2025 unprotected 1st

[trade machine approved]

We obtain a piece of our future puzzle with Buzelis and we increase our odds for being in the top 3 (twice) in 2025.

Obviously Buzelis stays however we must then flip Levine and Ball. Any takers? Maybe LA Lakers or LA Clippers will give us something of value?
 
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Boomchakalaka2 said:
Time to tank hard. Watching the highlights of Flagg…he’s going to be number 1, 2 or 3. I say we trade Grant, Ant and Timelord (plus picks) to a team that will part with an unprotected 2025 1st:

Teams owning a 2025 1st (unprotected or 1-5 protected):

Boston
Brooklyn
Charlotte
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Detroit
Golden State
Houston
Indiana
LA Clippers
Memphis
Miami
Milwaukee
New Orleans
New York
OKC
Orlando
Philadelphia
Sacramento
San Antonio
Toronto
Utah
Washington

of which, I’ll predict the following to be 2025 Lottery teams:

Brooklyn
Charlotte
Chicago
Detroit
Golden State
LA Clippers
Memphis
Toronto
Utah
Washington

to which, I’ll predict the following to be with the worst records:

Brooklyn
Charlotte
Chicago
Detroit
Washington
(Portland will finish outside of the worst three teams)

My final worst three teams in 2025:

Brooklyn
Chicago
Detroit
Toronto (right on the edge)

We need to pry away one of these team’s 2025 1st picks in order to increase our chances at Flagg. I just don’t see Portland finishing with a worse record even tanking hard.

Send Ant, Grant and Timelord and one of our 2029 1sts to Chicago and take back
Ball, Levine and Buzelis, get back our own protected 2025 pick previously sent to the Bulls and their 2025 unprotected 1st

[trade machine approved]

We obtain a piece of our future puzzle with Buzelis and we increase our odds for being in the top 3 (twice) in 2025.

Obviously Buzelis stays however we must then flip Levine and Ball. Any takers? Maybe LA Lakers or LA Clippers will give us something of value?
Click to expand...

Problem is, giving up too much talent that might make say, Chicago, actually better than they are. If we do the Chicago trade, they have no incentive to tank.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
We were third worst last season and Brogdon was our most effective player. Certainly think we can get bottom 3 or bottom 5 if we prioritize youth playing on this roster.
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How many games did players miss due to "injuries" last year? Hard to replicate that.
 
Asbolutely we are still tanking. That's why we're trading Grant this summer.

The vision is contention from 2027-2028

Scoot on year 5
Sharpe on year 6
Flagg on year 3
Avdija on year 8
Clingan on year 4

By then

Scoot should be playing like CP3
Sharpe should be playing like Kobe
Flagg should be playing like Pippen
Avdija should be playing like Luka
Clingan should be playing like David Robinson
 
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