Ayton

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I don’t hate much on Ayton. I was excited to get him and think he can be a force when used correctly. He seems allergic to whistles though.
 
Ayton: <plays in elite company statistically in his last 12 games.>
NBA Reddit: ‘but his free throw attempts tho’
 
Samuel said:
Ayton has been playing well recently! For the Blazers! Check it out, @Rastapopoulos!
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he's certainly been playing 'better' than the standards he set earlier in the season

in the 15 games since he came back from injury he's averaged 14.7 points and 9 rebounds. If you want to cherry-pick the last 12 games when his stats took a jump he's averaged 16.4 points and 9.8 rebounds. Those are decent numbers but hardly elite. They are Nurkic-level numbers with higher scoring and lower rebounds; but again, only a 12 game samples size
 
wizenheimer said:
he's certainly been playing 'better' than the standards he set earlier in the season

in the 15 games since he came back from injury he's averaged 14.7 points and 9 rebounds. If you want to cherry-pick the last 12 games when his stats took a jump he's averaged 16.4 points and 9.8 rebounds. Those are decent numbers but hardly elite. They are Nurkic-level numbers with higher scoring and lower rebounds; but again, only a 12 game samples size
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This is a tiny sample size. Last 12 games, players averaging over 10.6r and shooting over 50% from the field.

then again, this sample started with 3 games, then it was 5, now he’s put together a nice stretch. I’m sure there will be another dip—it does seem like the coaching staff and his teammates are putting him in the right spots more often and it’s leading to increased effort on both ends of the floor.

This is about as good as any meat/potato counting numbers stretch nurk had with the team (pre-injury 18-19 and bubble nurk). Nurk was better defensively and on pnr in those stretches, obviously.
 

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Samuel said:
This is a tiny sample size. Last 12 games, players averaging over 10.6r and shooting over 50% from the field.

then again, this sample started with 3 games, then it was 5, now he’s put together a nice stretch. I’m sure there will be another dip—it does seem like the coaching staff and his teammates are putting him in the right spots more often and it’s leading to increased effort on both ends of the floor.

This is about as good as any meat/potato counting numbers stretch nurk had with the team (pre-injury 18-19 and bubble nurk). Nurk was better defensively and on pnr in those stretches, obviously.
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like I said, they are good numbers. I was quibbling about labeling them elite...no worries

in the 11 game sample, he has averaged about 14 FGA. The rest of the season he averaged around 11. So 3 more FGA/game. He averages 1.21 points/shot so that has bumped his point average by over 3.6 points. That's pretty significant

and people dismissing the importance of FT's need to consider: Ayton has a season average FG% of 56.4%; Nurkic is averaging 51.6% on FGA's. So, Ayton is better, right? But Ayton is 'only' averaging 1.21 points/shot while Nurkic is averaging 1.34 points/shot. That represents the value of FT's as Ayton's FT rate is .107 and Nurkic's rate is .382....and in that 11 game sample, as well as Ayton has been shooting, his points/shot mark of 1.31 is still lower than Nurkic's season average
 
wizenheimer said:
like I said, they are good numbers. I was quibbling about labeling them elite...no worries

in the 11 game sample, he has averaged about 14 FGA. The rest of the season he averaged around 11. So 3 more FGA/game. He averages 1.21 points/shot so that has bumped his point average by over 3.6 points. That's pretty significant

and people dismissing the importance of FT's need to consider: Ayton has a season average FG% of 56.4%; Nurkic is averaging 51.6% on FGA's. So, Ayton is better, right? But Ayton is 'only' averaging 1.21 points/shot while Nurkic is averaging 1.34 points/shot. That represents the value of FT's as Ayton's FT rate is .107 and Nurkic's rate is .382....and in that 11 game sample, as well as Ayton has been shooting, his points/shot mark of 1.31 is still lower than Nurkic's season average
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Should also be pointed out that Nurk also has the luxury of being the #4 or #5 biggest worry of the opposing defense, with multiple teammates who demand double teams. His FG% and points/shot should be significantly higher for that reason alone.
 
Tince said:
Should also be pointed out that Nurk also has the luxury of being the #4 or #5 biggest worry of the opposing defense, with multiple teammates who demand double teams. His FG% and points/shot should be significantly higher for that reason alone.
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I don't really but that logic because I don't see teams flexing any of their defensive focus toward Ayton this year. Teams pay attention to Ant and Grant; and to Brogdon. They rarely double of trap Ayton, even when he's in the paint. Now, Ayton's career points/shot is better than Nurkic, so what I would buy is that players on crappy teams have difficulty maintaining efficiency
 
wizenheimer said:
I don't really but that logic because I don't see teams flexing any of their defensive focus toward Ayton this year. Teams pay attention to Ant and Grant; and to Brogdon. They rarely double of trap Ayton, even when he's in the paint. Now, Ayton's career points/shot is better than Nurkic, so what I would buy is that players on crappy teams have difficulty maintaining efficiency
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You don't think the quality of shots would change playing next to Durant and Booker vs Ant and Grant? More importantly, when deciding who to cover and rotate to, Phoenix's opponents have to decide between leaving Nurk, Beal, Grayson Allen, and Eric Gordon. Portland's opponents are having to decide between leaving Ayton, Camara, Thybulle, and Walker. Big difference.

I watch a decent amount of Phoenix games, and the number of times Nurk catches the ball with nobody near him is significantly higher than Ayton. So we're not comparing Ayton or Nurk being doubled, we're talking about one guy being played straight up and another just being wide open.
 
wizenheimer said:
and people dismissing the importance of FT'
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Respectfully, not doing that at all. Players who get to the line are the best in the league and I need more of that from Ayton.

My original comment is around the quibbly national media negging Ayton is going to get for the rest of his career because of his draft position and his Phoenix exit, even if he’s playing well.

I’ve made this point before but I could not care less about Ayton’s draft position or contract at this point—I care about him being better than a broken Nassir Little and a Nurkic who doesn’t make sense for Portland’s timeline anymore.

there was always going to be a meaty contract coming back for dame—that’s how the CBA works.
 
Hassan Whiteside on a max deal

That’s Ayton.

Big numbers, minimal impact

I was hoping a change of scenery/system would help

La’Sigh
 
If anyone has a problem with this dude putting up around 18 and 19 with a block and a steal per game while shooting 63% from the field and rarely turning the ball over then you need to check your expectations. This is probably the only guy we have that's both on the roster and healthy right now that I would be really excited to see in our starting lineup in our hopefully bright future.
 
blazerkor said:
If anyone has a problem with this dude putting up around 18 and 19 with a block and a steal per game while shooting 63% from the field and rarely turning the ball over then you need to check your expectations. This is probably the only guy we have that's both on the roster and healthy right now that I would be really excited to see in our starting lineup in our hopefully bright future.
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I get that he hasn't lived up to the expectations of a #1, but god people just love to have a hate boner for this guy. I really don't get it. He isn't even in the top 10 most disappointing Blazers of my generation.
 
Natebishop3 said:
I get that he hasn't lived up to the expectations of a #1, but god people just love to have a hate boner for this guy. I really don't get it. He isn't even in the top 10 most disappointing Blazers of my generation.
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We knew he was a number one pick that only got a max contract because the Pacers overpaid on an offer sheet when we got him. The guy is a way better than the average starting C in this league. He's able to protect the paint while switching out on the perimeter, he makes the shots he's supposed to on the block and he rebounds the fucking ball.

I don't think he should get max money on his next contract and he won't but I hope we still have him when we're actually trying to win games because his track record is that he's a guy that starts on rosters that win games both in the regular season and playoffs. Obviously with you I'm preaching to the choir but I hope a lot of other fans get their heads on straight. This is what a solid starting C in today's NBA looks like and he's the only fucking guy who was available to play tonight that I want starting on this team in the future unless an upgrade falls in our lap.
 
Natebishop3 said:
I get that he hasn't lived up to the expectations of a #1, but god people just love to have a hate boner for this guy. I really don't get it. He isn't even in the top 10 most disappointing Blazers of my generation.
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I don't think he's disappointing because he's been just about who I expected him to be

I was disappointed that Portland traded for him and seemingly over-valued him enough to chase him for a couple of years, but I guess they have to overpay somebody under the new CBA

blazerkor said:
We knew he was a number one pick that only got a max contract because the Pacers overpaid on an offer sheet when we got him. The guy is a way better than the average starting C in this league. He's able to protect the paint while switching out on the perimeter, he makes the shots he's supposed to on the block and he rebounds the fucking ball.

I don't think he should get max money on his next contract and he won't but I hope we still have him when we're actually trying to win games because his track record is that he's a guy that starts on rosters that win games both in the regular season and playoffs. Obviously with you I'm preaching to the choir but I hope a lot of other fans get their heads on straight. This is what a solid starting C in today's NBA looks like and he's the only fucking guy who was available to play tonight that I want starting on this team in the future unless an upgrade falls in our lap.
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comparing him to Whiteside may be off-base, and maybe a couple of posters have "hate boners" for him. That's extreme

but I think you guys are carrying the rebuttal praise a little too far in the other direction. He is what he is and among NBA centers, he's:

* a good shooter
* strong rebounder
* less effective scorer than he is a shooter
* poor passer
* bad screen setter
* average defender at best
* below average paint defender
* weak rim-protector

as for paint defense and rim protection: Blazers are 28th in opponent FG% at rim; 23rd in the 3-10'zone; 25th in the 10-16'zone; and yes, there are other factors than Ayton, who has missed games. Last season, with Nurkic playing 52 games Portland was 7th in opponent FG% at rim

I personally prefer defense, rim protection and rebounding out of a starting C. Ayton has one of those covered. He can obviously improve in the other two areas, but he'll be 26 next season so I'm not sure how much more defensive upside he has
 
wizenheimer said:
I don't think he's disappointing because he's been just about who I expected him to be

I was disappointed that Portland traded for him and seemingly over-valued him enough to chase him for a couple of years, but I guess they have to overpay somebody under the new CBA



comparing him to Whiteside may be off-base, and maybe a couple of posters have "hate boners" for him. That's extreme

but I think you guys are carrying the rebuttal praise a little too far in the other direction. He is what he is and among NBA centers, he's:

* a good shooter
* strong rebounder
* less effective scorer than he is a shooter
* poor passer
* bad screen setter
* average defender at best
* below average paint defender
* weak rim-protector

as for paint defense and rim protection: Blazers are 28th in opponent FG% at rim; 23rd in the 3-10'zone; 25th in the 10-16'zone; and yes, there are other factors than Ayton, who has missed games. Last season, with Nurkic playing 52 games Portland was 7th in opponent FG% at rim

I personally prefer defense, rim protection and rebounding out of a starting C. Ayton has one of those covered. He can obviously improve in the other two areas, but he'll be 26 next season so I'm not sure how much more defensive upside he has
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It's not even so much this forum. It's Reddit and other places. There is a huge anti-Ayton movement online. Not just Blazer fans or Suns fans.
 
Natebishop3 said:
It's not even so much this forum. It's Reddit and other places. There is a huge anti-Ayton movement online. Not just Blazer fans or Suns fans.
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ok...I don't do reddit or twitter; just this place and occasionally at RealGM

Ayton is definitely overpaid compared to his impact. But it isn't one of the egregious albatross contracts floating around the NBA
 
You can't blame not winning on Ayton, IMHO. Not with this roster. He has been delivering of late and every stat on a tanking team is an empty stat in theory.
 
wizenheimer said:
ok...I don't do reddit or twitter; just this place and occasionally at RealGM

Ayton is definitely overpaid compared to his impact. But it isn't one of the egregious albatross contracts floating around the NBA
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I agree with you that Ayton is definitely not a max player and I also agree with you that him being one isn't close to one of the worst max contracts in the league. I think he's a net positive out there, I think he's obviously a guy who needs to have better guys around him on both ends to show his best. Like I've said, he's the only guy on the team right now with a significant body of work that I'd really like to see on the team when we're trying to win in the playoffs again. That has two major caveats: one that by that time he's likely on a much better contract and two if someone better is to fall in our lap in the draft or somehow in a trade that makes sense, I'm not too attached to the guy to not want an upgrade.
 
We should have never traded Nurk for Ayton. Nurk is the better C and makes less money.
 
tlongII said:
We should have never traded Nurk for Ayton. Nurk is the better C and makes less money.
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Disagree. Nurk wasn't going to be happy here in losing mode. And he's older than Ayton.

Ayton actually has a chance to be a difference maker if we start winning in a few years.

I don't care how much Ayton is paid on his current contract.
 
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