Battle for play-in

[KingSpeed]

Minnesota 29-23
Mavs 27-25
Suns 25-25
Kings 25-26
****************
Warriors 25-26
Spurs 22-26
Blazers 23-29

8.5 games behind HCA
6 games behind automatic playoffs

We’re only 2.5 games behind Kings. We have to pass three teams. Who do we pass?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

We have to pass three teams. Who do we pass?

Screw the play-in. Look out Clippers; we're getting to 6.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Do we need to list where we are with tiebreakers?

We are up 2-1 over SAC with 1 more game
Just beat Phx twice
Not sure on the rest

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Spurs Warriors Kings Mavs all made big trades. It's actually super hard to integrate new starters in the middle of the season with no practice time. The Lakers have this issue too.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if some of these teams fall well short of expectations.

Also odds are 1-2 teams have a big injury.

Crazy that we're only two wins back.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Let's go get 6!

 

[blazerfan11]

Games against teams fighting for playoffs:

Sat, Feb 8
@Minnesota (2 wins 1 loss so far for Blazers, last game)


Mon, Mar 10
@Golden State (1 loss so far, 1 more game)

Thu, Mar 27
@Sacramento (2 wins 1 loss, last game)

Sun, Apr 6
vsSan Antonio (3 losses. last game)

Fri, Apr 11
vsGolden State

 

[blazerfan11]

Games against teams fighting for playoffs:

Sat, Feb 8
@Minnesota


Mon, Mar 10
@Golden State

Thu, Mar 27
@Sacramento

Sun, Apr 6
vsSan Antonio

Fri, Apr 11
vsGolden State

Already played all games versus (or already won/lost series):

Phoenix 2 wins 2 losses TIE

Dallas 1 win 3 losses LOST

Already lost 3 games to San Antonio. 1 remaining in Portland. LOST

 

[blazerfan11]

Looks like it could be quite a race for the last seeds in the WC playoffs/ play-in. (Or just call them the play-in seeds).

Other than the Blazers (9-1), none of these teams (current 8th seed and lower) are better than 5-5 in their last 10 games, and that lone 5-5 team is Phoenix

 

[Strenuus]

Hopefully none of them.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Looking at our brutal upcoming schedule. I see 8-10 more wins, which puts us at 33 wins. I get it, the great pessimist has spoken. But it’s legit what I see when I look at the schedule

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Love you and your eternal positivity, @KingSpeed
Keep it up. Im with ya.

 

[crandc]

Just win baby!

 

[BigGameDamian]

Make the playoffs. Then go after Zion in the summer!!

 

[wizenheimer]

Do we need to list where we are with tiebreakers?

We are up 2-1 over SAC with 1 more game
Just beat Phx twice
Not sure on the rest

starting at the 'realistic' targets:

* Clippers own the tie-breaker
* Dallas owns the tiebreaker
* Phoenix/Portland have a 2-2 record
* Portland leads Sacramento 2-1 with the 4th game, at Kings, on March 27
* Golden State leads series 1-0; 2nd game at GS Mar 10; 3rd game in Portland April 11
* San Antonio owns tie-breaker

the next tie-breaker, since none of those teams are in Portland's division is conference record:

Phoenix 16-14
Sacramento 16-17
Portland 14-24

with 30 games left, and only 14 left in-conference, that 10 loss hole Phoenix has Portland in is probably way too deep. If Portland went 10-4 they'd be 24-28 and the Suns would only need to go 9-13 to beat Portland. The Kings would have to go 9-10 to win tiebreaker. Portland's remaining conference record:

@ Minnesota Timberwolves
@ Denver Nuggets
@ Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Lakers
@ Utah Jazz
@ Oklahoma City Thunder
@ Golden State Warriors
Memphis Grizzlies
Denver Nuggets
@ Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs
@ Utah Jazz
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers

10-4 isn't likely

meaning probably the only teams the Blazer have a realistic shot of winning the tie-breaker are the Warriors & Kings. They'll have to have a better overall record for the rest, and they just about have to win at the Kings on March 27

so, on a practical level, having already won the tie-breakers, LAC has a 6.5 game lead; Dallas a 5 game lead; Phoenix a 4 game lead; Spurs a 2 game lead.

 

[Hoopguru]

Just Go win...

 

[SharpesTriumph]

starting at the 'realistic' targets:

* Clippers own the tie-breaker
* Dallas owns the tiebreaker
* Phoenix/Portland have a 2-2 record
* Portland leads Sacramento 2-1 with the 4th game, at Kings, on March 27
* Golden State leads series 1-0; 2nd game at GS Mar 10; 3rd game in Portland April 11
* San Antonio owns tie-breaker

the next tie-breaker, since none of those teams are in Portland's division is conference record:

Phoenix 16-14
Sacramento 16-17
Portland 14-24

with 30 games left, and only 14 left in-conference, that 10 loss hole Phoenix has Portland in is probably way too deep. If Portland went 10-4 they'd be 24-28 and the Suns would only need to go 9-13 to beat Portland. The Kings would have to go 9-10 to win tiebreaker. Portland's remaining conference record:

@ Minnesota Timberwolves
@ Denver Nuggets
@ Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Lakers
@ Utah Jazz
@ Oklahoma City Thunder
@ Golden State Warriors
Memphis Grizzlies
Denver Nuggets
@ Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs
@ Utah Jazz
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers

10-4 isn't likely

meaning probably the only teams the Blazer have a realistic shot of winning the tie-breaker are the Warriors & Kings. They'll have to have a better overall record for the rest, and they just about have to win at the Kings on March 27

so, on a practical level, having already won the tie-breakers, LAC has a 6.5 game lead; Dallas a 5 game lead; Phoenix a 4 game lead; Spurs a 2 game lead.

Good to know. So tiebreaker games are only against the Kings and Warriors. Blazers likely need to win these SAC or both GS for those tiebreakers.

These games may be more significant as it would give the Blazers a win and the opponent we are competing with in the standings a loss. So out of our next 30 games these are 4 that may be more critical;
3/10 @GS
3/27 @SAC
4/6 SAS
4/11 GS

Actually surprising we've already finished all our games against the LAC/DAL/PHX opponents. As others have said we do have a hard schedule. But we do have a third of the games against poor teams that should be easier wins;
2/22 CHA
2/24 @UTH
2/26 @WSH
2/28 @BRK
3/16 TOR
3/17 WSH
4/1 @ATL
4/3 @TOR
4/4 @CHI
4/9 @UTH

Certainly think its very possible we are in the hunt for the playin into April. At the end of the year a lot of teams start tanking where it can become super easy to string together wins. Likely have some teams with more injuries too. Boston/Cleveland at the end of March could begin coasting. Same for 3 of our final 4 games - perhaps these teams have their position locked and decide to sit players;
4/6 SAS
4/7 @UTH (tanking)
4/11 GS
4/13 LAL

 

[Hoopguru]

It would be unfair to take the opportunity to make the play in from them....

 

[B-Roy]

Can I just say it's patently crazy that the Blazers have won 10/11 and are still 13th in the West. When can you win >90% of your games over a month stretch and still not move up at all? West is crazy.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[KingSpeed]

Can I just say it's patently crazy that the Blazers have won 10/11 and are still 13th in the West. When can you win >90% of your games over a month stretch and still not move up at all? West is crazy.

It’s not about how crazy the West is. It’s about the 13-28 hole we were in. We were 6. 7, 8 games behind the mediocre teams in front of us,

 

[kjironman1]

Make the playin and win one but lose the second get the lowest lottery odds for the number one pick and then pull off a miracle and get a top 3 pick!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Make the playin and win one but lose the second get the lowest lottery odds for the number one pick and then pull off a miracle and get a top 3 pick!

I've said for a long time that I think the best answer for tanking is to give the highest lottery odds to the best non-playoff teams instead of the worst ones. Would make it much more possible for middling teams to get out of purgatory.

 

[wizenheimer]

I've said for a long time that I think the best answer for tanking is to give the highest lottery odds to the best non-playoff teams instead of the worst ones. Would make it much more possible for middling teams to get out of purgatory.

but it would also incentivize play-in teams to tank the last month or two of the season

 

[Phatguysrule]

Make the playin and win one but lose the second get the lowest lottery odds for the number one pick and then pull off a miracle and get a top 3 pick!

I've said for a long time that I think the best answer for tanking is to give the highest lottery odds to the best non-playoff teams instead of the worst ones. Would make it much more possible for middling teams to get out of purgatory.

but it would also incentivize play-in teams to tank the last month or two of the season

What if you give the play-in teams an equal shot as the top 4 and 5? The loser gets the same odds as top five and the winner gets the same odds as top four? If the winner wins the next series their odds drop to top six.

And then only 10 teams make the lottery based on record, plus the 4 play-in teams.

Or is that too complicated?

*Edit* changed number of lotto teams to total 14

 

[kjironman1]

What if you give the play-in teams an equal shot as the top 4 and 5? The loser gets the same odds as top five and the winner gets the same odds as top four? If the winner wins the next series their odds drop to top six.

And then only 10 teams make the lottery based on record, plus the 4 play-in teams.

Or is that too complicated?

*Edit* changed number of lotto teams to total 14

It would be complicated but "Too" complicated is the question I guess?

 

[blazerfan11]

The Warriors won and the Suns lost so they are tied with each other at .500

The Kings are still playing the Pelicans in Sacramento.

 

[BIG Q]

So Fools Gold is still in the race?

 

[blazerfan11]

It would be complicated but "Too" complicated is the question I guess?

The NBA should just make the odds the same for all 14 lottery teams when choosing the top 4 picks.

I am fine with a team intentionally losing 1 or 2 play-in games to miss the playoffs, or intentionally missing the play-in.

Keeping the draft order the same as now after 1-4, the teams that lose in the play-in still most likely get the pick that they are slotted for by their record, 11-14.

What is not fine is a team like Washington losing 82% of their games and getting a better chance at the first pick.

The team with the most losses is still is rewarded with the 5th pick (at worst) .

 

[wizenheimer]

The Warriors won and the Suns lost so they are tied with each other at .500

The Kings are still playing the Pelicans in Sacramento.

View attachment 71114

Blazers 3.5 games behind the 3 teams in 9th-11th seeds with identical records. But at this point, I'm wondering if losses are a bigger factor than wins. Blazers have 4 more losses.

Phoenix almost certainly will win the tie=breaker over Portland; the series is 2-2 but the 2nd tiebreaker is conference record and there's almost no chance the Blazers can catch them. So the Blazers are 4.5 games behind Phoenix. The season series between PDX/Kings & PDX/GS is still to be determined. Blazers have to beat Warriors in both remaining games. And they have to win at Sacramento

I think the Warriors are going to be better with Butler. Kings might be with LaVine instead of Fox

by the way, Phoenix got drubbed, at home tonight, by Denver. The Nuggets having been playing pretty well lately and they are always tough at home. I'd be surprised if Portland wins either of these two games

after the all-star break, Blazers get the Lakers at the Moda, but it's the 2nd of a b2b for LA. Then it's 3 'easier' road games until the March gauntlet starts

 

[wizenheimer]

What if you give the play-in teams an equal shot as the top 4 and 5? The loser gets the same odds as top five and the winner gets the same odds as top four? If the winner wins the next series their odds drop to top six.

And then only 10 teams make the lottery based on record, plus the 4 play-in teams.

Or is that too complicated?

*Edit* changed number of lotto teams to total 14

I don't think it would matter

take this season: come in as the 9th or 10th seed in the play-in and you're locked into the 8th seed. So here's your choice: win your play-in games and you get OKC who has HCA and the best record in the NBA...or...lose and you get an equal shot at Flagg or Bailey. I think more teams will find ways to lose than find ways to win.