Portland Trail Blazers: B
In the midst of an arms race in the West, until this morning the Blazers were the only team between 2-6 in the conference whose roster was unchanged from the start of the season. Upgrades elsewhere forced Portland to make a move to keep up, and a wing reserve was the obvious target. The Blazers hoped
C.J. McCollum would step into that role, but he's been too inconsistent offensively to lock it down.
Barton,
Allen Crabbe and
Dorell Wright all got turns, never providing Terry Stotts with a satisfying solution. Portland's wing problem was exacerbated by
Nicolas Batum slumping as he plays through a sprained wrist. Because the other alternatives were so weak, the Blazers never had the luxury of giving Batum an extended break to rest. The addition of Afflalo makes that a possibility.
More likely, Portland will be able to cut Batum's minutes slightly, which might be necessary to find enough time for Afflalo. (He'll also play some of the minutes
Steve Blake had been playing alongside
Damian Lillard in a small backcourt.) Because he's primarily a shooting guard rather than a player who splits time at the wing spots, Afflalo isn't an ideal fit. But he and starting shooting guard
Wesley Matthews are both physical enough to defend most small forwards, and I'd expect the Blazers to play them together for extended stretches when Batum is on the bench.
Afflalo's rep is as a 3-and-D player, but he shoots long 2s and isn't really that good a defender.
That's an interesting pairing because Matthews and Afflalo are probably each other's best comp in the league. They both love posting up (per Synergy Sports, they rank fourth and fifth in points scored off post-ups among guards this season) and are dangerous 3-point threats (Matthews 39.5 percent career, Afflalo 38.4 percent career, though just 33.7 percent his season).
The biggest statistical difference between Afflalo and Matthews is that Afflalo has tended to shoot more long 2s, and it will be interesting to see if that changes in Portland. That could boost Afflalo's TS%, which has been up and down over the course of his career. Beyond that, Afflalo has acquired a 3-and-D reputation without ever rating well defensively by most advanced stats. He ranks 53rd on defense among shooting guards in
ESPN's real plus-minus this season (Matthews is 13th, and surprisingly McCollum ranks 12th). Despite his poor RPM, Afflalo is unquestionably an upgrade at a point where even a small one could be the difference between having home-court advantage in the first round or not.
If Afflalo's presence ultimately swings a playoff series, it's worth giving up a future first-round pick. That's the gamble the Blazers are taking, because they could lose Afflalo to free agency this summer. If Matthews,
LaMarcus Aldridge and
Robin Lopez re-sign, Portland will be butting up against the luxury tax, which could make paying Afflalo unjustifiable. For that matter, Afflalo might simply want to go somewhere else he could start. On the plus side, having Afflalo's Bird rights does give the Blazers some flexibility should Matthews leave via free agency.
I'd be curious to know which side insisted on a 2016 first-round pick (lottery protected in both 2016 and 2017, at which point it converts to second-round picks). The lottery protection limits Portland's downside risk, but their 2016 pick will probably be better than this year's, and trading a future pick means the Blazers won't be able to trade their 2017 first-rounder until after the 2016 draft. So their options will be somewhat limited in terms of trading picks going forward.
