SharpesTriumph
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Thought Kevin Peltons analysis of the trade was pretty good. While I lean towards it probably being a bad deal I still kind of like it more than most others. If Jrue's struggles this last year were partly from injuries and he can get healthy to play better he might be worth more or even able to flip during the season.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...25-26-breaking-most-impactful-offseason-deals
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Trail Blazers: C-
Patience is the most valuable commodity in the NBA. Despite the Blazers' second-half run securing new contracts for coach Chauncey Billups and GM Joe Cronin, this trade reflects urgency to get back to the playoffs after a four-year drought.
Holiday's contract, which pays him $104.4 million over the next three seasons, loomed over trade negotiations. Because of his versatile skill set and self-awareness, Holiday is unlikely to be a harmful player throughout that contract. But it's possible by the time Holiday reaches a $37.2 million player option in 2027-28 that he is no longer a starting-caliber player at age 37.
Already, there are worrisome signs. Holiday's usage dipped slightly last season to a career-low 16% despite Boston's starting lineup having less shot creation with Porzingis sidelined for 40 games. The hope was that Holiday might turn it up once the playoffs began. Instead, he averaged just 9.5 PPG while battling a hamstring strain, including four points on 1-of-8 shooting in his final Celtics game in Round 2.
It's more challenging to evaluate statistically, but Holiday didn't feel like the same difference-maker at the defensive end. Injuries made Holiday ineligible to end his run of four consecutive All-Defensive appearances and top-10 finishes in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Absent that, I still would have had White higher on my ballot.
Concerns around Holiday's age would be less important to a contender he could help push over the top immediately. He did it with Boston two years ago after being acquired from Portland in the Damian Lillard deal with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Blazers aren't that team.
It seems unlikely Portland would make this move without going 23-18 over the second half to flirt with a play-in appearance before running out of time to catch the Mavericks. That success was built in large part on poor opponent 3-point shooting that the Blazers will have a difficult time repeating. Teams shot just 34% from 3 against Portland in the second half, the second lowest in the league.
There's no doubt the Blazers improved defensively down the stretch. Their opponent's shot quality went from 13th-best in the first half to eighth in the second half (as measured by GeniusIQ's quantified shot quality metric that considers location and type of shot as well as distance to nearby defenders). But Portland's jump from 27th in opponent effective field-goal percentage in the first half to sixth over the last 41 games overstated the magnitude of that progress.
With Holiday and All-Defensive second-team pick Toumani Camara on the perimeter, plus the rim protection supplied by 2024 lottery pick Donovan Clingan, the Blazers have the potential to be a top defense next season. Without Simons, however, it will be much more difficult for Portland to field a competitive offense.
I could buy a win-now move for a team in the Blazers' position if they were in the East where the conference is wide open because of Achilles injuries to Tatum, Lillard and Tyrese Haliburton that will affect their 2025-26 availability. There's no such dynamic for Portland in the West. The Blazers finished tied for 11th in the conference and have to worry about being caught from behind by the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs, who both can expect better health next season.
Monday's post-Finals Power Rankings for 2025-26, already affected by this deal, had Portland 12th in the West ahead of New Orleans, the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz. This deal probably pushes the Blazers ahead of the Sacramento Kings but still leaves them outside the West's top 10. A play-in spot, if likely, is not assured. And making the playoffs remains worse than a 50-50 proposition.
Holiday's professionalism and championship experience should benefit Portland's young guards. The trade would be graded differently if the Blazers were getting paid in draft picks by Boston for the privilege of saving $40 million in luxury taxes. Instead, the draft picks (albeit second-rounders) are heading the Celtics' direction, which doesn't seem to accurately reflect the difference in the two contracts.
In a worst-case scenario where Portland wanted to move on from Simons and hand 2023 No. 2 pick Scoot Henderson the keys to the offense, taking on Holiday substantially curtails the team's cap flexibility for 2026 and 2027. The Blazers could have extended the contract of shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe and still had max-level cap space next summer by letting Simons walk. That scenario is now off the table, and it's worth considering whether Portland would have offered Holiday his current contract as a free agent using cap space.
The hard reality of NBA rebuilding is the easiest way to short-circuit things is to push in too early, capping the group's potential in favor of modest success that eventually feels hollow. Trading Holiday alone won't do that for Portland, but it's not an promising indicator of the team's priorities."
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...25-26-breaking-most-impactful-offseason-deals
"
Trail Blazers: C-
Patience is the most valuable commodity in the NBA. Despite the Blazers' second-half run securing new contracts for coach Chauncey Billups and GM Joe Cronin, this trade reflects urgency to get back to the playoffs after a four-year drought.
Holiday's contract, which pays him $104.4 million over the next three seasons, loomed over trade negotiations. Because of his versatile skill set and self-awareness, Holiday is unlikely to be a harmful player throughout that contract. But it's possible by the time Holiday reaches a $37.2 million player option in 2027-28 that he is no longer a starting-caliber player at age 37.
Already, there are worrisome signs. Holiday's usage dipped slightly last season to a career-low 16% despite Boston's starting lineup having less shot creation with Porzingis sidelined for 40 games. The hope was that Holiday might turn it up once the playoffs began. Instead, he averaged just 9.5 PPG while battling a hamstring strain, including four points on 1-of-8 shooting in his final Celtics game in Round 2.
It's more challenging to evaluate statistically, but Holiday didn't feel like the same difference-maker at the defensive end. Injuries made Holiday ineligible to end his run of four consecutive All-Defensive appearances and top-10 finishes in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Absent that, I still would have had White higher on my ballot.
Concerns around Holiday's age would be less important to a contender he could help push over the top immediately. He did it with Boston two years ago after being acquired from Portland in the Damian Lillard deal with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Blazers aren't that team.
It seems unlikely Portland would make this move without going 23-18 over the second half to flirt with a play-in appearance before running out of time to catch the Mavericks. That success was built in large part on poor opponent 3-point shooting that the Blazers will have a difficult time repeating. Teams shot just 34% from 3 against Portland in the second half, the second lowest in the league.
There's no doubt the Blazers improved defensively down the stretch. Their opponent's shot quality went from 13th-best in the first half to eighth in the second half (as measured by GeniusIQ's quantified shot quality metric that considers location and type of shot as well as distance to nearby defenders). But Portland's jump from 27th in opponent effective field-goal percentage in the first half to sixth over the last 41 games overstated the magnitude of that progress.
With Holiday and All-Defensive second-team pick Toumani Camara on the perimeter, plus the rim protection supplied by 2024 lottery pick Donovan Clingan, the Blazers have the potential to be a top defense next season. Without Simons, however, it will be much more difficult for Portland to field a competitive offense.
I could buy a win-now move for a team in the Blazers' position if they were in the East where the conference is wide open because of Achilles injuries to Tatum, Lillard and Tyrese Haliburton that will affect their 2025-26 availability. There's no such dynamic for Portland in the West. The Blazers finished tied for 11th in the conference and have to worry about being caught from behind by the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs, who both can expect better health next season.
Monday's post-Finals Power Rankings for 2025-26, already affected by this deal, had Portland 12th in the West ahead of New Orleans, the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz. This deal probably pushes the Blazers ahead of the Sacramento Kings but still leaves them outside the West's top 10. A play-in spot, if likely, is not assured. And making the playoffs remains worse than a 50-50 proposition.
Holiday's professionalism and championship experience should benefit Portland's young guards. The trade would be graded differently if the Blazers were getting paid in draft picks by Boston for the privilege of saving $40 million in luxury taxes. Instead, the draft picks (albeit second-rounders) are heading the Celtics' direction, which doesn't seem to accurately reflect the difference in the two contracts.
In a worst-case scenario where Portland wanted to move on from Simons and hand 2023 No. 2 pick Scoot Henderson the keys to the offense, taking on Holiday substantially curtails the team's cap flexibility for 2026 and 2027. The Blazers could have extended the contract of shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe and still had max-level cap space next summer by letting Simons walk. That scenario is now off the table, and it's worth considering whether Portland would have offered Holiday his current contract as a free agent using cap space.
The hard reality of NBA rebuilding is the easiest way to short-circuit things is to push in too early, capping the group's potential in favor of modest success that eventually feels hollow. Trading Holiday alone won't do that for Portland, but it's not an promising indicator of the team's priorities."
